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Gazprom loss reveals struggle to fill EU gas sales space with China

Kremlinowned energy kingpin Gazprom, as soon as Russia's most rewarding company, might face a long period of poor performance as it has a hard time to fill the gap of lost European gas sales with its domestic market and Chinese exports.

The company recently revealed a yearly bottom line of $7. billion, its very first because 1999, following a steep decline in. trade with Europe.

Gazprom's troubles reflect the deep impact the European. sanctions have actually had on Russia's gas market, along with the. constraints of Moscow's growing collaboration with China.

The impact of international sanctions on oil exports has. Since Russia has been able to, been much easier for Moscow to absorb. reroute sea-borne oil exports to other buyers.

Gazprom relied on Europe as its largest sales market until. 2022, when Russia's dispute with Ukraine prompted the EU to cut. Gazprom gas imports.

Russia supplied an overall of around 63.8 billion cubic metres. ( bcm) of gas to Europe by various routes in 2022, according to. Gazprom data and computations. The volume decreased. even more, by 55.6%, to 28.3 bcm last year.

That's compared to a peak of 200.8 bcm Gazprom pumped in. 2018 to the EU and other nations, such as Turkey.

Mysterious blasts at Nord Stream undersea gas pipelines from. Russia to Germany in September 2022 also significantly. weakened Russian gas trade with Europe.

Russia has actually turned to China, looking for to increase its pipeline. gas sales to 100 bcm a year by 2030. Gazprom started pipeline. gas products to China through the Power of Siberia in the end of. 2019.

It prepares to reach the 38 bcm annual capability of Power of. Siberia by the end of this year, while Moscow and Beijing likewise. concurred in 2022 about exports of 10 bcm from the Pacific island. of Sakhalin.

Russia's biggest hope is the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline through. Mongolia, which is planned to export 50 bcm each year. That. has actually hit some mistakes due to the lack of agreement over pricing. and other issues.

While Gazprom will see some additional export earnings when. all those pipelines will be up and running, it will never ever be. able to balance out completely business it has lost to Europe,. Kateryna Filippenko, a research director on gas and LNG at Wood. Mackenzie, stated.

CHINESE PIPEDREAM?

Russia has actually also had a hard time so far to establish a gas trading. centre in Turkey, a concept first drifted by President Vladimir. Putin in October 2022. No considerable development has actually been. reported because.

Even if Gazprom can get its pipeline supply to China up and. running, sales profits will be much lower than from Europe.

According to Moscow-based BCS brokerage, Gazprom's earnings. from gas sales to Europe in 2015-2019 balanced at $3.3 billion. each month thanks to regular monthly products of 15.5 bcm.

Taking into account a cost of $286.9 per 1,000 cubic. metres, as reported by the Russian economy ministry, and. Gazprom's gas exports of 22.7 bcm in 2015, the overall worth of. the business's gas offered to China might have reach $6.5 billion. for the whole of 2023.

Gazprom did not expose its earnings from sales to Europe or. China for 2023 separately.

Dr Michal Meidan, head of China Energy Research Study at Oxford. Institute for Energy Researches, said China is not likely to change. Europe for Russia as an extremely successful gas export market.

China provides Russia an outlet however at much lower rates and. revenue than Europe, she stated.

In 2023, Russian pipeline gas was cost $6.6 per million. British thermal units (mmBtu) to China and a little lower than. that in the first quarter 2024 at $6.4/ mmBtu.

That's compared to an average price of Russian gas in Europe. of $12.9/ mmBtu in 2015.

According to a document seen last month, Russia. anticipates its gas price for China to continue slowly declining. in next four years, while a worst-case situation does not rule. out a 45% fall to $156.7 per 1,000 cubic metres (around $4.4 per. mmBtu) in 2027 versus 2023.

It didn't say what may drive prices down, however Russia is. facing competition from other pipeline gas suppliers to China, such. as Turkmenistan, in addition to sea-borne melted gas.

The financials of Gazprom, which likewise include its oil and. power systems, revealed that the revenue from the natural gas. business more than halved in 2015, to just over 3.1 trillion. roubles, while oil and gas condensate sales totaled up to 4.1. trillion roubles, up 4.3%, according to BCS brokerage.

Alexei Belogoriyev of Moscow-based Institute for Energy and. Financing stated it would be difficult for Gazprom to restore. success relying exclusively on its gas organization.

He said strategic shift to production and export of ammonia,. methanol and other gas processing items for Gazprom is. possible, however it will not provide a quick return.

At the same time, the prospects for the Power of Siberia 2. stay vague: China most likely won't require for so much. extra imports in 2030s due to the most likely downturn in demand. development and high domestic gas production rates, he stated.

(source: Reuters)