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How a US tariff of 50% could affect Brazilian exports

U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he will impose tariffs of 50% on all Brazilian products starting August 1. This could have a significant impact on South America’s agricultural powerhouse.

Brazil's second largest export market is the United States, behind China. Brazil's primary export to the U.S. is oil, but it is also a major market for Brazilian manufactured products such as aircraft and machines.

COFFEE

Brazil is the largest coffee exporter in the world. The U.S. is the primary destination. Brazil exports 16.7% of its coffee to the U.S.

Four sources in the trade told us that U.S. roasters will not be able pay more than 50% for the beans. Brazilian exporters are unable to cut the prices to the required level. This could cause roasters to look elsewhere to buy their beans. Brazil is likely to divert its cargos to Europe or Asia.

The U.S. ranks as the second-largest market for Brazilian beef. Brazilian meatpacker Minerva claimed that tariffs could reduce its net income by up to 5% per year. JBS and Marfrig are two major meatpackers that have a significant part of their operation in the U.S. This would insulate them against a big impact. Tariffs may increase beef prices, which are already high in the U.S.

ORANGE JUICE

CitrusBR, a group representing the industry, warned that Trump's new tariffs could have a severe impact on Brazil's orange-juice industry, which is the largest in terms of production.

The U.S. was a major market for orange juice in Brazil during the harvest of 2024/25, which ended June 30. CitrusBR stated that the tariff was "unsustainable" as the profit margins of the industry were too small to absorb additional costs. The group said that other importers wouldn't be able offset the drop in shipments into the U.S.

According to data from commodities consultancy StoneX, Brazil exported 13% of its total oil last year.

According to BTG Pactual, the loss to Brazil would be "modest" as the sector is more flexible in terms of commercial and logistical capabilities to divert shipments to different markets. StoneX estimates that the U.S. will also not feel the impact of the tariff, since Brazil has supplied less than 3 percent of the U.S.'s consumption so far in 2025.

AIRCRAFT Embraer of Brazil, the third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world, with a large market for its regional jetliners and executive planes in the U.S., would be among the most affected companies by the tariffs.

According to analysts from BTG Bank, Brazilian aircraft exports to America, specifically airplanes, accounted for around 63% last year of the total number of aircraft exported.

TIMBER

According to BTG analysts, the U.S. accounted for more than 40 percent of Brazil's total timber exports last year.

Cogo Inteligencia em Agronegocio is a consulting firm that said forest products from Brazil will become less competitive compared to other countries, like Canada and Chile.

Citi reported that Suzano, the pulp giant, with 15% of its revenue in the U.S. could be in trouble in the near future, but it benefits from low costs, the flexibility to reallocate volume, and the global scale.

MACHINERY ENGINES & ELECTRONICS

According to BTG, the U.S. accounted for 60% of Brazil's exports in the engine, machinery, and generator industries. UBS BB analysts said that the tariff would hurt WEG.

According to the Brazilian Electrical and Electronics Industry Association, the U.S. also is the top destination for Brazilian electronic products.

(source: Reuters)