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Lloyd's Register Study Identifies Hidden Fatigue Risks in Offshore Wind Tech
Some offshore wind turbine (OWT) support structures may fall short of required fatigue life expectations, according to a new Lloyd’s Register (LR) report, which also pinpointed reliability-based inspection as one of the measures to manage fatigue-driven risks in such structures.The case study evaluated a North Atlantic offshore wind farm of 60–70 turbines, with the combined 500 - 600 MW capacity.Offshore wind turbines are typically designed for 25 years of service, using a fatigue design factor of three, implying a minimum required fatigue life of 75 years.However, the study found that a critical joint in the jacket foundation would reach the end of its fatigue life after just 52 years, falling short of this design requirement.Instead of redesigning the joint, the study took a reliability-based inspection (RBI) approach to identify and mitigate potential failure through targeted, risk-based maintenance.The study combined a S-N (Stress vs. Number of cycles) model, to estimate when structural safety drops below acceptable thresholds, with Fracture Mechanics (FM) crack growth analysis, to predict the probability of failure over time and inform inspection intervals.This approach incorporates inspection results via Probability of Detection (PoD) curves to allow inspection schedules to be dynamically updated, responding to real-world conditions and inspection findings.The results suggest that the first inspection should be carried out around year nine. After that, depending on the inspection method, further inspections might be needed every year to maintain acceptable safety margins.Advanced Inspection Techniques Offer Greater ReliabilityHowever, the case study highlights the limitations of current inspection methods. Visual and ultrasonic inspections were found to be less effective for fatigue-critical components.More advanced techniques, such as Eddy Current or ACFM, offer greater reliability and allow for longer inspection intervals, but only when operators were willing to adopt slightly lower safety thresholds.While RBI planning is effective in reducing in-service life costs and ensuring the longevity and safety for OWT structures, it requires expert input, reliable models, and software tools that can handle complex calculations.Ongoing research aims to refine the models and address the challenges during their application. Reliability updating, especially when integrating PoD curves, requires complex modelling and precise calibration of parameters such as initial crack size and stress intensity factors, areas often underdeveloped in practice.The study calls for wider industry collaboration to refine inspection standards, share real-time monitoring data to refine fatigue predictions, and adopt more flexible definitions of acceptable reliability where appropriate.“Many offshore wind assets are designed to a standard fatigue factor, but real-world conditions often expose critical vulnerabilities. Our findings show that using reliability-based methods allows operators to focus inspections where the risks are greatest.“By integrating sophisticated models and real-world inspection data, we can extend asset life, reduce costs and, most importantly, maintain safety,” said Kourosh Parsa, Global Head of Technology - Offshore and Subsea, LR. “By focusing on the areas with the greatest risk, we can not only help to manage fatigue-related issues more effectively, we’re also enabling developers and operators to make better-informed decisions that optimize asset life and performance.“This proactive, risk-based approach is exactly how we support our clients in navigating complexity, controlling costs, and ensuring the long-term viability of their offshore wind investments,” added Manuel Ruiz, Head of Offshore Renewable Solutions, LR.
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Officials claim that armed men have kidnapped and killed nine bus passengers in Pakistan.
Officials said that nine passengers were killed by armed men after they kidnapped them in Pakistan's southwest Balochistan Province. Shahid Rind, spokesman for the provincial government, confirmed that passengers were kidnapped on multiple buses Thursday evening. Naveed alam, a government official, said that bodies with bullet injuries were found overnight in the mountains. No one has taken responsibility. In the past, separatist Baloch militants were involved in similar incidents. They killed passengers who they identified as being from eastern Punjab. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) is one of the most powerful insurgents operating in a mineral rich region bordering Afghanistan and Iran. The Baloch militants accuse the authorities of Pakistan of stealing resources from their region to finance spending in Punjab Province.
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The iron ore market is set to gain for a third consecutive week on the hope of China reforming its supply
Iron ore futures continued to rise on Friday and are headed for their third consecutive weekly gain. This is due to renewed hope that China's crackdown against a price war, will pave way for new reforms aimed at curbing steel overcapacity. As of 0303 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 2.07% higher. It was 766 yuan (US$106.82) per metric ton. As of 0253 GMT, the benchmark August iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was $0.85 higher per ton. Both benchmarks are up 4% this week. Jiang Mengtian is a principal analyst with Horizon Insights. He said that the strength of the ferrous market stemmed primarily from the sentiment fuelled by the environmental protection-related restrictions on production in Tangshan, the main steel production hub, and the hopes for supply-side reform. Jiang said that the steel market was the most affected, as shown by the rise in futures prices. He also noted the stockpiling of iron ore by downstream consumers. Despite signs of a softening demand, ore prices continued to rise. According to Mysteel, the average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of the iron ore demand, fell 0.6% from the previous week, reaching 2.39 million tonnes in the week ending July 10. This was the lowest level recorded since April 3. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, also saw gains. Jiang said that the price of coal had seen the biggest increase due to its low valuation. The majority of steel benchmarks traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The price of rebar increased by 1.32%. Hot-rolled coils rose by 1.39%, and wire rod was up 1.77%. Stainless steel fell by 0.47%. ($1 = 7.1707 Chinese Yuan Renminbi)
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Gold prices rise on Trump's tariffs but dollar firmness caps gains
Gold prices rose Friday, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced new tariffs against Canadian imports as well as broader threats of tariffs to other trading partners. However, gains were limited by the stronger dollar in light of mounting signs that global trade is experiencing turmoil. As of 0245 GMT, spot gold increased 0.3% to $3333.67 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.6% to $3345.10. Trump announced on Thursday that the U.S. will impose a tariff of 35% on imports coming from Canada, and plans to impose blanket duty rates of 15% or 20 % on all other trading partners. The announcement follows a 50% tariff announced on Wednesday on U.S. imports of copper and a similar tax on Brazilian goods, as well as tariff notifications sent to other trading partners including Japan and South Korea. All new tariffs announced will go into effect on August 1, 2018. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst, said that despite Trump's tariffs wars picking back up again, gold prices haven't seen the same boost as they did previously because investors are more familiar with both Trump's policies and the tariff story. Gold is becoming more expensive to international buyers due to the U.S. Dollar Index. Waterer stated that the move of the dollar north in tandem with gold likely limited the gains made in precious metals. The weekly jobless claims for the U.S. dropped unexpectedly to the lowest level in seven weeks, signaling stable employment levels even though the labour market is cooling. It also signals that the Federal Reserve does not feel the need to cut interest rates again. In a low-rate environment, gold, which is often viewed as a safe asset in times of economic uncertainty, tends do well. On Thursday, the White House renewed its attack on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. A senior official said Powell had "grossly managed" the central banking, citing budget deficits and overruns. Silver spot rose 0.4% to $37.17 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.2% at $1,358.61, and palladium increased 0.2% at $1,143.55. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Aich and Rashmi Nandy, Bengaluru)
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As markets digest US tariffs, copper prices are on the rise
The London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) saw copper prices range-bound on Friday. After an initial shock from the U.S. announcement that a 50% tariff on imports would be effective on August 1, the market was waiting for more details. As of 0101 GMT, the LME's three-month copper was down by 0.18%, at $9,683.5 a metric ton. The contract is down 1.73% this week and could be heading for a second consecutive weekly decline. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract edged up 0.18% to 78.530 yuan (10,943.12) but is still on course to finish the week with a loss of 1.97%. The U.S. president Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting on August 1, to promote the domestic development of an important industry for automobiles, electronics and defense. The futures analyst of a Beijing metals company who requested anonymity said that there were still many unknowns, including what copper products would be included in the plan, whether or not the 50% was final, or if it could be changed, and whether or not the implementation date will be extended. The COMEX premium was $2,615 per ton in the previous session. This is a 27% drop from the peak reached on Tuesday. Traders have shipped about a full year's worth copper to the United States. Analysts said that with so much copper shipped to the U.S. already, it may not be possible to implement the tariff as announced. However, an increase of 40% is more likely, even if the tariff was implemented. Nickel fell 0.2% on Friday to $15,260 and LME lead dropped 0.54%. SHFE nickel rose by 1.03%, to 121.140 yuan per ton. Zinc was up 0.58%, at 22.415 yuan. Aluminium was up 0.27%, at 20.725 yuan. Tin advanced 0.16%, to 265,430, yuan. Lead eased down 0.73%, to 17.090 yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. DATA/EVENTS - (GMT) 0600 UK GDP Estimate MM & YY 0600 UK Services MM & YY 0600 UK Manufacturing Output MM & YY 0645 France Final CPI (EU Norms) MM YY 0645 France NSA MM YY 0645 France NSA MM YY 0645 France NSA MM YY 0645 France MM YY NSA 0645 ($1 = 7.1762
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Bloomberg News reports that Trump's tariffs on copper will include semi-finished goods.
Bloomberg News, citing sources familiar with the situation, reported that President Donald Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper, which would apply to semi-finished products used in power grids, data centers and the military. Trump announced on Wednesday a new tariff of 50% on copper, effective August 1, to encourage the domestic development of a critical industry for defense, electronics, and automobiles. Could not verify the report immediately. The White House didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. "Copper is essential for Semiconductors, Aircraft, Ships, Ammunition, Data Centers, Lithium Ion Batteries, Radar Systems, Missile Defense Systems, Hypersonic weapons, which we are building in large numbers," Trump stated on a Truth Social posting Wednesday. In February, the White House launched a Section 232 inquiry into copper imports. This was done using a law which gives the president authority over higher tariffs based upon national security. This is the latest of a series of tariffs Trump has imposed on sectors such as steel and aluminium that will increase costs for American consumers, according to economists. (Reporting and editing by Saad sayeed in Bengaluru, Rhea Abraham in Bengaluru)
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The oil price has recovered slightly, but US tariffs and OPEC's downgrade are still weighing.
Early Friday, oil prices were stable after a 2% decline in the previous session. This was due to President Donald Trump's tariffs that are expected to harm economic growth and a reduction in OPEC demand estimates. Brent crude futures increased 19 cents or 0.28% to $68.83 per barrel at 0037 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude ticked up by 26 cents, or 0.39% to $66.83 per barrel. In its World Oil Outlook 2025, published on Thursday by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the organization cut its predictions for the global oil demand from 2026-2029 due to the slowing Chinese market. OPEC has forecast that global demand will average 106.3 millions barrels per day in 2026. This is down from the 108 million bpd predicted in the last year's projection. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Thursday a tariff rate of 35% for goods imported to the United States from Canada starting August 1. He also said that the United States would impose blanket duties of 15% or 20 percent on most other trading partners. In the morning, Trump had threatened to impose punitive duties on Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy. He also announced plans for duties on semiconductors, copper and pharmaceuticals. According to EU diplomatic sources, the European Union will propose a floating Russian crude oil price cap as part of a new package of sanctions this week. The current cap has become irrelevant due to a drop in oil prices, said these sources.
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LSEG data show that the price gap between east and west for diesel in July is at its widest level in two-and-a half years.
LSEG data on Thursday showed that the immediate July price differential between diesel prices in Asia & Europe widened to a discount near $120 per metric tonne, its largest in slightly over 2-1/2 years. According to data, the last time the exchange of futures swaps (EFS) or the price differential between ICE Gasoil Futures and Singapore Swaps was at this level was at the end October 2022. The ICE Gasoil Futures Contract for July expires later this Thursday. As of 0830 GMT, the August EFS had a discount per metric ton of $35. A larger EFS spread is likely to encourage swing suppliers from India and the Middle East, to send their cargoes over to Europe in order to take advantage of higher prices. LSEG's shiptracking data shows that most of the cargoes from the Middle East, India and other countries bound for West of Suez markets are loaded in the first half of July. James Noel Beswick, analyst at Sparta Commodities, said that the unprecedented rise in European diesel prices created arbitrage opportunities for sending supplies from Asia and the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe. A Singapore-based trader stated that the large backwardation of ICE gasoil contracts could pose a risk, as it may lower the prices of their cargoes when they reach Europe during the second half of July or August. Backwardation is a market structure in which prices for immediate months are higher than future months. The July/August ICE Gasoil Spread The price of Russian oil is $110 per ton. This is the highest since October 2022, when the European Union placed an embargo against Russian oil following the Ukraine War. August/September Backwardation is $16-17 per ton. Reporting by Trixie YAP, Editing by Louise Heavens & Florence Tan
How a US tariff of 50% could affect Brazilian exports
U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he will impose tariffs of 50% on all Brazilian products starting August 1. This could have a significant impact on South America’s agricultural powerhouse.
Brazil's second largest export market is the United States, behind China. Brazil's primary export to the U.S. is oil, but it is also a major market for Brazilian manufactured products such as aircraft and machines.
COFFEE
Brazil is the largest coffee exporter in the world. The U.S. is the primary destination. Brazil exports 16.7% of its coffee to the U.S.
Four sources in the trade told us that U.S. roasters will not be able pay more than 50% for the beans. Brazilian exporters are unable to cut the prices to the required level. This could cause roasters to look elsewhere to buy their beans. Brazil is likely to divert its cargos to Europe or Asia.
The U.S. ranks as the second-largest market for Brazilian beef. Brazilian meatpacker Minerva claimed that tariffs could reduce its net income by up to 5% per year. JBS and Marfrig are two major meatpackers that have a significant part of their operation in the U.S. This would insulate them against a big impact. Tariffs may increase beef prices, which are already high in the U.S.
ORANGE JUICE
CitrusBR, a group representing the industry, warned that Trump's new tariffs could have a severe impact on Brazil's orange-juice industry, which is the largest in terms of production.
The U.S. was a major market for orange juice in Brazil during the harvest of 2024/25, which ended June 30. CitrusBR stated that the tariff was "unsustainable" as the profit margins of the industry were too small to absorb additional costs. The group said that other importers wouldn't be able offset the drop in shipments into the U.S.
According to data from commodities consultancy StoneX, Brazil exported 13% of its total oil last year.
According to BTG Pactual, the loss to Brazil would be "modest" as the sector is more flexible in terms of commercial and logistical capabilities to divert shipments to different markets. StoneX estimates that the U.S. will also not feel the impact of the tariff, since Brazil has supplied less than 3 percent of the U.S.'s consumption so far in 2025.
AIRCRAFT Embraer of Brazil, the third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world, with a large market for its regional jetliners and executive planes in the U.S., would be among the most affected companies by the tariffs.
According to analysts from BTG Bank, Brazilian aircraft exports to America, specifically airplanes, accounted for around 63% last year of the total number of aircraft exported.
TIMBER
According to BTG analysts, the U.S. accounted for more than 40 percent of Brazil's total timber exports last year.
Cogo Inteligencia em Agronegocio is a consulting firm that said forest products from Brazil will become less competitive compared to other countries, like Canada and Chile.
Citi reported that Suzano, the pulp giant, with 15% of its revenue in the U.S. could be in trouble in the near future, but it benefits from low costs, the flexibility to reallocate volume, and the global scale.
MACHINERY ENGINES & ELECTRONICS
According to BTG, the U.S. accounted for 60% of Brazil's exports in the engine, machinery, and generator industries. UBS BB analysts said that the tariff would hurt WEG.
According to the Brazilian Electrical and Electronics Industry Association, the U.S. also is the top destination for Brazilian electronic products.
(source: Reuters)