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Sources: China's smelter group does not set Q4 copper TC/RC guidelines
Sources said that China's leading copper smelters have decided not to set fee guidance for copper concentrate processing in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is the third time in a row they have taken this decision, which highlights a long-term feedstock shortage. Two sources familiar with the matter confirmed that the decision on Wednesday was taken at a quarterly gathering of members of the China Smelters Purchase Team. The CSPT is a group of sixteen leading smelters who are expected to follow the guidelines in dealings for spot copper concentrate. Treatment charges and refining costs (TC/RC), a major source of revenue for miners, are usually paid to refine concentrate and tend to decrease when the concentrate supply is tightening. They rise with an increase in ore availability. The group has not provided such guidance for the second and third quarters, as spot prices have been negative since December. This means that smelters must pay miners. One of the sources said that there was some discussion about the direction, but they ultimately decided to not set any guidance. It's best to wait until November, when the annual negotiations begin. All sources asked for anonymity because they were not authorized to speak with media. Global mining output is growing faster than smelting capacities, resulting in a tightening of concentrate supplies that squeezes smelters’ margins. The suspension of Freeport’s flagship Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which is the second largest mine in the world, has further reduced the prospect of mined supplies. The Chinese smelters have not reduced their output in a significant way, as the revenue generated from other products such as sulfuric acid, gold and silver, has offset the losses caused by copper sales. This year's copper production is expected to reach a new record. Some overseas smelters have either reduced output or suspended operations because of a shortage of feedstock. Chinese smelters have agreed to process concentrates from Chilean miner Antofagasta at no cost, which is a record for the industry. Reporting by Amy Lv in Beijing and Lewis Jackson in London, with editing by Jacqueline Wong & Michael Perry.
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Australian shares fall to a two-week low after inflation spikes sink rate-cutting hopes
Australian shares closed on Wednesday at their lowest levels in two weeks as a spike of core inflation dashed any hopes for a rate cut in the near future, prompting a sale-off in real estate and banking stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell by 0.96%, to 8,926.20. It is the first time that the index has fallen below the important 9,000-point mark since October 15. Data released on Wednesday showed that the core inflation rate rose at the fastest pace in two years in the third quarter of the year. This dampened expectations of a cut in rates next week, and forced markets to reduce their bets about the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s broader easing cycles. The odds of a rate reduction in December have fallen below 22%, from 47% before the data. Citi, Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered are all Australian 'Big Four banks' that expect the RBA's key interest rate to remain at 3.60% in this year. The top lender CBA's economists have abandoned their calls for another rate cut in February next year and expect that the cash rate will remain unchanged for an extended period. Financials, the largest sector, fell by 1.9%, after two consecutive days of gains. All four of the "Big Four" banks closed in the red. National Australia Bank, the top lender in Australia, lost 2.6%. The cash rate is the basis for the valuation of defensive assets, which are an alternative to bonds. As a result, we see those stocks being sold as the expectation of a rate reduction next week has now been removed, said Luke Winchester. Goodman Group, a sector leader, fell 1.4%. CSL, the healthcare sector's main stock, fell by 4% on Tuesday. The benchmark S&P/NZX 50 Index in New Zealand closed at 13,409.21, a slight increase. Atharva Singh, Bengaluru (reporting); Sonia Cheema, editing)
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Gold falls ahead of Fed decision; dollar strength and trade optimism weigh
Gold prices were unchanged on Wednesday ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut that was widely expected. However, expectations of a possible U.S. China trade deal, and a stronger Dollar, kept bullion at a three-week-low. As of 0513 GMT spot gold was unchanged at $3,951.59 an ounce after Tuesday's drop to its lowest level since October 7. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 0.4% to $ 3,965.20 an ounce. Gold is now more expensive to other currency holders due to the 0.2% rise in the dollar index. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "The fuel behind this short-term gold correction is the readjustment from safe-haven instruments to more responsive instruments like global equities because of trade optimism." Gold is under pressure to fall due to short-term leverage and technical levels being breached. The fundamentals of gold are still positive. Over the weekend, top Chinese and U.S. economists hammered out the framework for a trade agreement between U.S. president Donald Trump and his Chinese equivalent Xi Jinping. The deal would halt steeper American tariffs as well as Chinese controls on rare-earth exports. Trump and Xi will meet in South Korea Thursday. The progress in U.S. China trade talks has continued to erode demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This pullback extended as tensions eased. The recent falls may offer central banks an opportunity to increase purchases, ANZ stated in a report. Investors are also watching for any language that Jerome Powell uses to express a forward-looking outlook. At its Thursday policy meeting, the European Central Bank will likely leave interest rates unchanged. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low interest rate environments and economic uncertainty. The gold price has risen by 52% in the past year, with a peak of $4381.21 reached on October 20. This was boosted by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, bets to lower rates, and central bank purchases. Spot silver rose 0.8% per ounce to $47.38, platinum dropped 0.8% at $1,572.70, and palladium slipped 0.1% to $1.392.28.
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The morning bid is EUROPE: Fed, Big Tech, and Trump pageantry are the order of the day
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The markets are busy today with the Federal Reserve's key policy announcement, and earnings from Wall Street tech giants and Europe. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta will release their results after the bell. It is important that they deliver strong numbers to justify their high valuations. Asia stocks rose on Wednesday, thanks to a spillover effect from Wall Street. This optimism was fueled by Nvidia's announcement that it would build seven new supercomputers for U.S. Department of Energy. Microsoft has reached an agreement with OpenAI that allows it to restructure as a public benefit company while also giving Microsoft a 27% stake in ChatGPT. The AI boom is looking good for the moment, but there's still a big question: Is it headed towards a bubble? If there are any signs that demand has slowed or that massive spending has not paid off as expected, it could cause a rush to sell crowded stocks in Big Tech. Investors will be watching for further Fed easing in December. The ongoing U.S. shutdown has prevented the release of important economic data, at a time when there is uncertainty over the state of the U.S. employment market. However, signs of a cooling in labour conditions and softer-than-expected inflation could give policymakers the confidence to lower interest rates. The central bank will also be focusing on whether it finally ends its long-running program of balance sheet reduction, also known as quantitative tightening. The yen gained strength on other markets after U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent warned Tokyo to not keep the yen weak by allowing its central bank to raise rates. The Australian dollar climbed after data revealed that domestic consumer prices rose by the largest amount in two-and-a half years during the third quarter of 2009. A shockingly large increase in core inflation appeared to rule out any interest rate cuts in the near future. The U.S. president Donald Trump has a golf club to a golden crown. He landed in South Korea Wednesday, the last leg of his Asia tour. In bilateral talks, he will discuss trade and investment with South Korean president Lee Jae Myung. The presidential office announced that Lee would present Trump with a replica of a gold crown, and will also award him the "Grand Order of Mugunghwa", which is the highest decoration in the country. Trump arrived in South Korea after a visit to Tokyo where he praised Japan's first woman prime minister, Sanae Takayichi. He lauded her commitment to accelerating a military buildup, and welcomed the signing of deals on rare earths and trade. Takaichi gave Trump a putter that Shinzo Abe used, Trump's golfing partner and Japan's former leader. This was one of many references to Trump's relationship with Abe which anchored ties between both countries during Trump's first presidential term. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada Rate Decisions Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta earnings - Mercedes-Benz, UBS, Adidas, GSK, Airbus earnings
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Russia claims that Ukraine has targeted Moscow for the third night in a row with drones.
Russian authorities reported that Ukraine had sent drones to Moscow for a third night in a row and also targeted other Russian regions. The drones disrupted air traffic across the country, and threatened an industrial plant located in the south of Russia, they said. The Russian Defence Ministry announced on Telegram that Russian air defence units had destroyed 100 Ukrainian drones over the course of the night, including six in Moscow and thirteen over the bordering areas. Kyiv continued to launch long-range drone attacks on Moscow and other Russian regions over the past few months. The aim, according to Kyiv, was "to hit Russia's military and industrial assets and sap its war economy, and show Russians that the conflict is not far away." Sergei Sobyanin said that the attacks on Moscow were in waves. Rosaviatsiya, the Russian aviation watchdog, said that three of Moscow's airports and others in other parts of the country were temporarily closed for safety. Vladimir Vladimirov said that the governor of the Stavropol Region in Russia, Vladimir Vladimirov also reported on Telegram that Ukraine launched drones against the Budyonnovsk Industrial Zone. The Russian Defence Ministry said that its units shot down two drones in the area, which is located in the south of the country. Vladimirov, a Telegram user, said that the attack did not cause "significant" damages and there were also no casualties. Ukrainian media outlets, such as RBK Ukraine, claim that Kyiv has attacked the Stavrolen Chemical Plant in Budyonnovsk, a Russian Lukoil-owned plant. Stavrolen, according to Russian and Ukrainian press, is one of Russia’s largest producers of polyethylene (polypropylene) and polyethylene. Stavrolen's governor did not disclose what was attacked in Budyonnovsk. Stavropol Governor did not reveal what happened in Budyonnovsk. Russia usually does not provide much information about the impact of Ukrainian attacks on its territory, unless there are civilians or infrastructures that have been hit. The Russian Defence Ministry confirmed that 35 Ukrainian drones were destroyed by Russian units in the Moscow area over the two previous nights. No damage was reported.
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Cyclone Montha strikes India's East coast, killing one
Officials said that one person died on India's east coast when Cyclone Montha hit around midnight. Heavy rains and gusty wind also damaged crops and utility poles. The Indian weather service has predicted extremely heavy rains for coastal states Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on Wednesday, with gusts up to 90 km/h. The cyclone will likely weaken into a deep depression by the end of the day. Local officials reported that a 48-year old woman died in Andhra Pradesh’s Konaseema District after a palm fell on her. The government reported that as of Tuesday evening, more than 38,000 acres of crops were damaged, along with several power lines and utility posts in Andhra Pradesh. There are efforts underway to restore electricity in areas that have been affected by outages. A video from ANI in which we have a minor stake showed rescue workers in the state clearing uprooted trees and cleaning streets as rain continued. A notice revealed that the Tibet side of Mount Everest has stopped visitor access due to unseasonably heavy snowfall, caused by weather changes brought about by the cyclone. Reporting by Jatindra dash in Bhubaneswar and Rishika sadam in Hyderabad. Writing by Tanvi mehta. Editing by Edwina gibbs.
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Floods in Central Vietnam kill 9 and leave 5 others missing
The government reported on Wednesday that floods in central Vietnam caused by heavy rainfall records have resulted in the deaths of at least nine people. Five others are still missing. The government released a statement stating that six of the deaths occurred in Danang, which is home to the most popular beach in the country, and in the ancient town Hoi An. In a separate report, the government disaster agency stated that the floods had also inundated over 103,000 homes, mainly in the top tourist destinations of Hue, and Hoi An. Vietnam is susceptible to violent storms, which can be deadly. Flooding and storms are also common in Vietnam. This causes widespread damage to property. The former imperial capital Hue, listed by UNESCO, and the ancient city of Hoi An continue to be pounded with heavy rains, according to the agency. This comes after the rainfall in this area reached a record-high in a 24-hour period that ended late Monday night, surpassing 1,000 millimetres. Images circulated on state media showing that Hoi An was still inundated with floodwater, and several houses were submerged to the roofs. Hue was hit by flooding of up to 1-2 meters in 32 of the 40 communes. The government reported that water levels have continued to rise in the rivers and reservoirs of Danang. It said that "widespread flooding" continued in low-lying river banks and urban areas. There was also a high risk of flash floods, landslides and other natural disasters in the mountainous regions of Danang. The disaster agency reported that landslides had occurred in several places, blocking traffic and destroying power grids. It also said the state-run railway company has not yet been able resume services between the capital Hanoi, and the business hub Ho Chi Minh City, following a Tuesday suspension. According to the weather agency of the government, heavy rains will continue over central Vietnam for the next two weeks. Some areas are expected to receive rainfall above 400 millimetres between early Wednesday and late Thursday.
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Valaris Adds $190M in New Offshore Drilling and Wind Contracts
Offshore drilling contractor Valaris has secured a series of new contracts and extensions worth about $190 million in the North Sea and Middle East regions, lifting its total contract backlog to $4.5 billion.The latest awards include a mix of deepwater drilling and jack-up projects across Egypt and the UK North Sea, underscoring continued demand from both oil and gas and offshore wind clients.Valaris’s drillship VALARIS DS-12 was awarded a five-well contract by BP Exploration Delta Limited in Egypt, scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2026. The work is expected to last around 350 days, with a total estimated value of $140 million, including a mobilization fee. The contract also provides three optional wells.In the UK North Sea, the company secured a series of jack-up rig extensions and new assignments. VALARIS 121 received a 194-day extension from Shell, beginning in February 2026 in direct continuation of its current work, adding over $25 million to the backlog.VALARIS Norway was granted a 150-day extension by Ithaca Energy, commencing in August 2026, with an estimated value of around $18 million.The company also expanded into the offshore wind segment, with VALARIS 248 contracted by GE Vernova to provide accommodation support services for a North Sea offshore wind project.The 120-day contract, starting November 2025, is valued at over $8 million and includes six priced options totaling 104 additional days.Separately, VALARIS 122 obtained two 28-day extensions from Shell for accommodation support, starting January 2026, with a combined value exceeding $6 million and one priced option remaining.Valaris said it also sold the jackup VALARIS 247 in August 2025 for cash proceeds of approximately $108 million.
Japan enhances reliance on allies Australia, United States for long-term LNG materials
Resourcescarce Japan is supporting longterm products of liquefied natural gas from close allies Australia and the United States as essential contracts from companies consisting of Russia are set to expire by the early 2030s.
Japan's greatest power generator JERA last month agreed to buy a 15.1% stake in Woodside Energy's Scarborough task in Australia. It was the most recent in a string of deals as the fallout from Russia's intrusion of Ukraine threatens to interrupt access to gas from its northern neighbour, making it more necessary to discover reliable long-lasting supply sources.
LNG accounts for about a 3rd of Japan's power generation and it is the world's second-largest importer behind China.
It stays a crucial part of Japan's energy mix even though imports fell by 8% last year to the most affordable since 2009 as it has increased using renewable energy and rebooted some nuclear reactors following a complete shutdown after the Fukushima catastrophe in 2011.
Because 2022, Japanese LNG purchasers have struck equity handle five projects in Australia and the U.S. consisting of an expedition block. They have actually secured 10- to 20-year offtake agreements from those nations for more than 5 million metric loads each year, or 8% of Japan's 2023 usage, according to a computation, eclipsing transactions in other places in the world.
Political concerns consisting of new carbon emissions guidelines in the Australia introduced in mid-2023 and President Joe Biden's. freeze in January on brand-new U.S. LNG export licence approvals have. not dented Japan's hunger for long-lasting supplies from those. countries.
Kyushu Electric Power, amongst the leading 5. Japanese energies, has said it is thinking about purchasing a stake in. Energy Transfer's Lake Charles LNG project in the United. States, even though it is now based on the U.S. licence. freeze.
That would be its 2nd direct equity stake in gas. production after Australia.
The United States And Canada and Australia still have supply stability. compared to other jobs, Kyushu Electric Executive Officer. Takashi Mitsuyoshi stated.
There are some concerns about North America due to the. recent (LNG) relocation by Biden, but they, along with Australia, are. allies and that suggests a lot.
Japan and the United States are members of the Group of. Seven (G7) alliance of industrialized countries and are partners with. Australia in another regional security body, the Quadrilateral. Security Discussion, also called the Quad.
Kyushu Electric has long-lasting supply agreements with. Australia, Indonesia and Russia, some of which are due to expire. between 2027 and 2032.
Mitsuyoshi stated Indonesia may have restricted export capability. in the future due to strong domestic demand thanks to a growing. economy.
Qatar, another Japan provider, is ramping up production. some buyers chafe at its agreements that restrict flexibility to. trade freights, with Japan's market minister in 2015 calling. for the removal of the destination provision.
Considering that 2022, Japanese LNG buyers have increased their. participation with Oman, however on a smaller scale compared to. Australia and the U.S., while Inpex got brand-new. exploration licences in Malaysia.
REPLACING RUSSIA
LNG flows to Japan have actually changed over the last years,. including big decreases from Indonesia, Malaysia, Qatar and. Russia as well as the U.S. and Papua New Guinea ending up being significant. brand-new suppliers, according to Japan customizeds information.
Throughout that duration, Australia has actually been its top. supplier, though other new sources are emerging.
Canada, a G7 member, is preparing to begin its. significant export center, from which Mitsubishi Corp, a. investor, will receive over 2 million tons of LNG yearly.
Yoko Nobuoka, senior expert for Japan power research study at. LSEG, said the importance of cooperation with allies for Japan's. energy security, consisting of LNG, had actually increased on the back of the. energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Russia was Japan's third-biggest LNG supplier in 2015,. after Australia and Malaysia, but imports fell 10.7% from 2022.
Much of Japan's Russian LNG originates from the Sakhalin-2. project, however many of its long-lasting contracts are set to lapse. around 2030, providing included reward to secure offers elsewhere.
The vast brand-new Arctic LNG 2 task, in which Mitsui & & Co. and state-owned Japan Company for Metals and. Energy Security (JOGMEC) together own 10%, highlights the. dangers of Tokyo's reliance on Russian gas.
Washington in November enforced sanctions on the task,. prompting its operator, Novatek, to declare force majeure and. leading Mitsui to tape an additional provision of 13.6 billion. yen ($ 91.94 million).
But G7 members can't cut that dependence (on Russian LNG). overnight, so that's why they need enhanced LNG materials from. allies, said David Boling, a director at seeking advice from firm. Eurasia Group who was deputy assistant U.S. trade representative. for Japan from 2015 to 2022. ($ 1 = 147.9300 yen)
(source: Reuters)