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China's hot metal production falls as iron ore declines
Iron ore futures fell on Thursday, as the hot metal output in China's top buyer fell amid a slow return to production following the New Year holiday. The most-traded May iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed daytime trading 1.03% lower, closing at 813 Yuan ($116.63). The contract reached its lowest level since January 9, at 812 Yuan, earlier in the day. As of 0709 GMT the benchmark?iron ore for February on the Singapore Exchange had fallen by 0.97% to $107 per ton, after reaching its lowest level since January 7, at $106.95. According to data released by the Shanghai Metals Market on Thursday, hot metal production fell by 0.26% or nearly 2,000,000 tons week-on-week as several steel mills took a long time to resume production. According to data released by the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) on Thursday, many other mills performed planned annual maintenance. SMM reported that portside spot cargo trades were also slow as traders and mills remained cautious in accumulating cargoes past the essential Lunar New Year replenishment, and supply pressure from inventory accumulation limited ore price growth. The market was supported by data showing China's record-breaking monthly steel exports for December. In a recent note, ANZ Research stated that "Demand seems to be driven by strong international demand offset by weak domestic demand." Iron ore prices are also expected to be impacted by the record imports of iron ore in December, and an increase in shipments of ore to China. Coking coal and coke, two other steelmaking ingredients, also lost ground on the DCE. They fell by 0.11% and?1% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. Rebar fell 0.13% while hot-rolled coil remained unchanged. Wire rod grew by 0.15%, while stainless steel strengthened 3.51%.
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Copper falls from a record high on the back of easing US tariff worries and a stronger dollar
The copper price fell on Thursday, from its'record highs'. This was due to a weaker dollar and the easing of concerns about a possible imposition of U.S. tariffs. The most-traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended daytime trading 1.31% lower, at 102 810 yuan per metric ton ($14 748.67). The contract reached a record of 105,650 Yuan the previous day. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.68% by 0713 GMT to $13,098.5 a ton, after reaching an all-time-high of $13,407 Wednesday. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he has decided to delay imposing tariffs against rare earths and lithium, as well as other critical minerals. Copper has been added as a critical mineral in the United States. The persistent flow of copper into the United States, despite higher local premiums in anticipation of possible tariffs, has led to a tightening of supply and subsequently a rise in prices. A stronger dollar also affected the demand for metals, which are used in power grids, construction, and manufacturing. Shanghai tin rose for the fifth consecutive session, hitting a record-high of 443,380 yuan. This was due to persistent "funds" buying despite signs that supply had increased. Indonesia Tin Exporters Association estimates that the country’s tin production quota will be set at?around 60,000 tons by 2026, as opposed to 53,000 tons for 2025. Concerns about the supply from Indonesia led to a spike in Shanghai nickel, which reached its highest level in over seven months, at 151.750 yuan. Local media reported that Indonesia, a major producer, may "approve" a nickel ore quota this year of 260 tons. This is lower than the estimated need of 340 to 350 million tonnes. Lead, zinc, and aluminium all saw increases of 0.78%. The LME also saw a decline in aluminium, as well as a rise in nickel, lead, tin, and zinc. $1 = 6.9708 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Indonesia announces a 0.1% increase in foreign direct investments in 2025
The Investment Ministry announced on Thursday that Indonesia's?foreign?direct investments last year totalled 900.9 trillion Rupiah (US$53.4 billion), up 0.1% over the previous year. The fourth quarter FDI was 256.3 trillion Rupiah. This is a 4.3% rise from the same time period last year, and the first growth in three-quarters. This compares to a'reduction of 8.9% during the previous three-month period. The data excludes investment in the oil and gas and financial sectors. Analysts believe that Southeast Asia's largest economy must attract more foreign investment if it is to increase growth from the current 5% to President Prabowo's target of 8 percent. After banning the export of nickel ores in 2020, and other minerals by 2023, the resource-rich nation has seen a surge in FDI. This is a measure designed to help its industries move up the global supply chain. The mining sector received $4.7 billion in FDI, while the base metals sector received $14.6 billion. Singapore, Hong Kong, and China were the largest sources of FDI by 2025.
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Gold demand falls as profit-taking and a softer geopolitical climate hit the safe-haven market
Gold fell on Thursday, as investors took profits after the "yellow metal" hit a record the previous session. A softer tone by U.S. president Donald Trump towards the Federal Reserve Chair and Iran also dampened the demand for safe havens. As of 0652 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.3% to $4,608.77 an ounce. Bullion reached a record $4,642.72 per ounce on Wednesday. U.S. Gold Futures for Delivery in February fell by 0.5% to $4613.0. Ilya Spivak is the head of global macro for Tastylive. He said: "Today we are seeing that gold is down after (Trump said) maybe we won't intervene in Iran, staving off the safe-haven demands, but the bigger story (of metal's rising) will not go away." Iran's leaders, trying to quell the worst domestic unrest in Iran since the 1979 revolution, threatened U.S. bases in the area in an effort to dissuade Trump's repeated military threats. Trump, at the White House, suggested that he would be adopting a "wait-and-see" attitude toward the crisis. The president stated on Wednesday that, despite the Justice Department's criminal investigation into Powell, he does not plan to fire him. However, it is "too soon" to know what he will do in the end. Later in the day the U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims for the First Week of January are released. This could give clues about the Fed's policy. The market expects two?interest rates cuts in 2019. Gold is traditionally favored by non-yielding investments such as low interest rates, geopolitical unrest and economic uncertainty. Spot silver fell 3.4% to $89.63 an ounce, after reaching a session high of $93.57. Spot platinum fell 2.6% to $2.321.65 an ounce, after reaching a record high of $2.478.50 per ounce on December 29. Palladium fell 1.3% per ounce to $1,804.10 and was hovering near a week-low. Ishaan arora, Bengaluru. Sherry Jacob Phillips and Harikrishnan Nair edited the story.
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Caledonia will spend $132m on Zimbabwe's largest gold mine in this year
The company said that it plans to invest $132 million in this year's budget to start the development of what will become Zimbabwe's biggest?gold?mine once it is operational. The record gold prices are helping miners expand production. Gold spot prices reached a new record of $4,639.48 per ounce on early Wednesday. This was fueled by the escalating tensions with Iran, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s autonomy, and lower inflation readings which boosted bets for rate cuts. Caledonia stated in a production report that the planned expenditure, which is part of a total capital spending programme of $162.5 millions for 2026, would be subject to approval by the board and funding availability. Caledonia, which already operates the 80,000-ounce-per-year Blanket mine in ?Zimbabwe, plans to develop ?the Bilboes mine at a projected total capital cost of $584 million. The new mine will begin production in late 2028. A steady-state annual production of 200,000 ounces is anticipated to start from 2029, for an initial 10 year period. Caledonia announced on?Thursday a private placement to institutional investors of $125,000,000 in convertible bonds. It said that the debt due in January 2033 will be used to fund the Bilboes Mine Development. The company has stated that it will fund the Bilboes Project through a combination of non-recourse senior debt, contributions made by existing operations, and specialised financing methods, such as streaming. In this method, investors are paid cash in exchange for future metal supply. Caledonia’s expansion plans got a boost when Zimbabwe’s government reversed its plans to double gold royalty rates and change the tax treatment of capital expenditures. (Reporting and editing by Nelson Banya, Joe Bavier, and Chris Takudzwa Muronzi)
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China says Carney’s Beijing visit is key to restarting relations
China has praised the visit by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to Beijing on Thursday, calling it a "pivotal step" in efforts to recalibrate relations following months of intensive re-engagement. The remarks by China's top diplomat Wang Yi came during a meeting between Carney and his Canadian counterpart Anita Anand. Anita is a member of Carney's delegation on this first visit to Canada since 2017. Wang stated that this was the first time in eight years that the Canadian Prime Minister had visited China. This is a landmark and pivotal moment for our bilateral relationship. Wang said that China was willing to enhance cooperation with Canada and eliminate "interference" but did not specify the source. Anand, in turn, praised the work done behind the scenes to prepare Carney for his upcoming meetings with China's top leaders in order to "ensure that those?meetings?are a success", according a press release from the Canadian Prime Minister's Office. WARMING TIES The countries have expressed a desire to move past the tensions that have plagued their relations since 2017. Most recently, tensions arose after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau set tariffs for Chinese electric cars in 2024 following similar U.S. curbs. Customs data released on Wednesday showed that China responded?last march with tariffs on over $2.6 billion?of Canadian food and farm products such as canola meal and oil. This led to a drop of 10.4% of Chinese imports of Canadian items in 2025. The re-engagement with China is also fueled by the push to diversify markets for exports after U.S. president Donald Trump imposed tariffs against Canada last year, and suggested that longtime U.S. allies could become his 51st state. Since Carney became the leader of the United States last year, efforts to establish a new dialogue have accelerated. Top officials from both sides set up meetings and made telephone calls which paved the road for the October leaders' meeting in South Korea. Chief Cause of Tension Chinese state media blamed Trudeau's government for the tension, blaming its policies of containing China and aligning itself with the United States. Jacob Cooke is the chief executive officer of WPIC Marketing + Technologies in Beijing, a Canadian firm that worked with Arcteryx, Lululemon and other garment companies on their China launch. Cooke said: "We know Carney is a businessman with a lot experience and has been to China many times." "So, from the perspective of business, we are very optimistic and confident." Carney, who arrived in Beijing on Wednesday has already met with senior executives from Chinese companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology and China National Petroleum Corp. He also met with officials of Envision Energy (a maker of smart wind turbines), the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Primavera Capital, and Alibaba, an e-commerce giant. Carney will meet Li Qiang, Premier of China, later on Thursday. He'll also meet Xi Friday. Reporting by Maria Cheng, Additional reporting in Beijing by Joe Cash; Writing by Ryan Woo and Clarence Fernandez; Editing by Jacqueline Wong & Clarence Fernandez
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Ugandans vote in tense elections seen as a test of Museveni’s strength
Ugandans took part in a tense, national election on Thursday. This was after a violent campaign that shut down the internet to curb what the government termed "misinformation". President Yoweri Mueveni wanted to extend his rule for a fifth decade. Museveni will likely be able to defeat the challenge of popular singer "Bobi Wine", but this election is also a test for his political strength, and the ability to prevent the unrest which has ravaged neighbouring countries Kenya and Tanzania. Even as speculation about his succession swirls, the long-time leader campaigned under the slogan "protecting gains" and promised to maintain peace in the country while lifting it into the middle income category. Wine, 43, a pop star who is nicknamed "Ghetto president" because of his humble beginnings, has pledged to end Museveni's dictatorship and appealed to angry young people about the lack of economic opportunities in a nation where the average population age is barely over 16. The polls were opened in Kampala, the capital city amid heavy police presence. The authorities Cut internet access On Tuesday, mobile?access was limited across the country. Ronald Tenwa (45), a university researcher who voted in Kasangati, said that politicians "cling to their positions for a very long time". He said that if he voted for "someone who is caring, Uganda will benefit," without naming the person for whom he would be voting. HUNDREDS Arrested, at LEAST one killed At least one person has been killed and hundreds arrested at Wine's events by security forces. Museveni’s government defended security forces’ actions as a justifiable response to what they called lawless behavior by “opposition supporters”. Last week, the U.N. Human Rights Office stated that elections were taking place in a climate of "widespread intimidation and repression". Museveni, Africa's third longest-serving leader of state, is being challenged by six other opposition candidates. The voters will also elect more than 500 parliamentarians. The polls will close at 4:00 pm (1300 GMT), and the results are expected within 48 hours. MUSEVENI IS AN STRATEGIC FRIEND OF THE WEST Museveni was at the forefront of a revolt in 1986 that brought him to power. Political analysts claim that he has altered the constitution twice, removing age and term limitations. His dominance over Ugandan institutions also means that there are few chances of an upset in an upcoming election. As president, he positioned Uganda to be a strategic partner for Western nations. He sent troops into regional hotspots such as Somalia, and took millions of refugees. The economic growth traditionally dependent on agriculture and tourism is expected to reach double digits once crude oil production begins this year at fields operated by France's TotalEnergies, and China's CNOOC. Museveni's government has been accused of human rights violations and unfair elections. The United States has denounced Wine's last victory in 2021, in which he won with 58% of votes, as not being fair or free. Security forces killed over 50 opposition supporters in the run-up to this vote. It is unlikely that the Trump administration will make similar criticisms this time, after instructing U.S. diplomats in July to refrain from commenting on foreign elections. FOCUS ON PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSFUL Museveni's son, Muhoozi Kaineruaba, is believed by many to be his preferred successor. However, the president denies grooming his son for the position. Analysts say that Kainerugaba has declared openly his presidential ambitions. He is a social media star who regularly posts threats of violence towards opposition leaders. However, his status as the heir apparent within the ruling party is not widely accepted. Juliet Zawedde (18 years old) a Kampala first-time voter said that any succession should be democratic. She said, "In Africa too many government officials promote their relatives." They need to give others a chance." Reporting by Ammu Kanampilly, Kampala; writing by Vincent Mumo Nzilani and editing by Aaron Ross Philippa Fletcher Michael Perry
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The great stock rotation continues with MORNING BID Europe
Kevin Buckland gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The move away from the high-flying technology?stocks, which set the pace for the record global equity 'rallies of last year, gained more momentum to the benefit?cyclical shares and?value stocks. As an example, Japan's high-tech Nikkei index dropped by 1% during the narrative. It had previously reached a record-high. The Topix index, which is a broader measure of the market, extended its record-breaking climb by 0.4%. The Russell 2000 index is currently outpacing S&P 500, with a 0.7% gain overnight while the larger index has lost 0.5%. Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda argued that despite the ominous appearance of Wall Street indexes dropping this year due to big drops for heavyweights such as Apple, Meta, and Microsoft, it was actually a healthy expansion of the market. Futures for?Europe's futures point to a continuation of record highs reached on Wednesday in Britain, and other parts of this region. After U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he had heard about a halt in the killing of Iranian protesters, the likelihood of U.S. war is lessened. This saw crude oil fall sharply from multimonth highs and also helped to bring safe-haven metals down from an all-time high. Trump de-escalated tensions between himself and the Fed by saying that he had no plan to fire Chairman Jerome Powell despite the criminal probe into the cost overruns in renovations at the Fed headquarters. The U.S. does not cede any ground in its bid to buy Greenland. Trump reiterates that it is needed by the U.S., even though the Greenland and Denmark foreign ministers left Washington after a high-stakes summit, saying that the Danish autonomous territory was not for sale. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. -UK GDP estimate, services, industrial production, manufacturing output -France, Spain, Sweden CPI German GDP for the full year -Euro zone industrial production
ROI-Resurgent London Metal Exchange rides speculative tsunami: Andy Home
London Metal Exchange (LME), a venerable institution of 149 years, posted record trading volume last year. This is a remarkable turnaround from the dark days four years ago when the nickel crisis was at its height.
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, which owns the London market, has reaped the benefits of the physical market turmoil that has marked Donald Trump's term as president.
The funds finally arrived.
In the fourth quarter, a 'flood' of speculative purchases washed over the LME base-metals complex. The average daily volume of 777.016 contracts during the last three months of 2025 was a quarterly record. It surpassed the previous high of 735.604 contracts set in the second quarter 2014.
LME Futures Open Interest ended the year at a 15% increase compared to 2024, and its highest level since early-2021.
Retail investors in the U.S. flooded into CME's smaller contracts of copper.
TARIFF BOOST
Import tariffs in the United States, which are in effect in the case aluminium, and could be in place in the event of copper, has had a major impact on the physical flow of metals around the globe.
The copper supply chain is still being ripped out to be sent to the United States. As the market (again), bets on a Trump tax on imported refined metal. In June, a decision is expected.
LME copper trading accelerated in February when Trump launched his investigation into U.S. imports of copper. The average daily volume increased by 12% between 2025 and 2024.
CME's flagship contract for copper, on the other hand, saw a 33% drop in activity, as investors were scared by the unprecedented volatility of arbitrage prices with London.
The U.S. exchange benefited from the disruption in the aluminum market that followed the increase in U.S. tariffs on imports to 50%.
CME contracts for physical aluminum premiums in the Midwest U.S.A. and Europe recorded record volumes last Year with an annual growth of 47% & 72% respectively.
Return of the Funds
While institutional investors remain wary of the CME Copper Contract, they have been flooding the LME ever since September.
The red-hot precious-metals sector has sparked renewed interest in base metals. But money is also being drawn by the record-breaking run of copper and the strong rally in all LME metals except lead.
LME trading experienced a dramatic change during the fourth-quarter due to the renewed enthusiasm for metals.
The copper and tin volume were at their highest levels since 2013 and 2014. Nickel posted its second best quarterly volume ever, while lead activity reached new highs. LME nickel trading was at its highest level since 2019 last year, indicating a return to confidence in the London Market after the crisis of 2022. It seems that most funds have forgiven LME for cancelling nickel transactions, a controversial move which was upheld in the British High Court.
SHANGHAI GETS GRAPPED BY METAL FEVER
In December, the metals mania spread to China.
Shanghai's market had been a slow one up to that point, with volumes of base metal futures down across the board.
In the last month 2025, Chinese investors joined in on the bull market.
The Shanghai copper contract saw the most activity since November 2015, while the aluminium volumes were at their highest level in three years. Nickel turnover was also the highest it has been in four years.
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, a state-backed organization, warned against blindly following a "unreasonable price rally" and a record 9 million tonnes of tin were traded in December.
No one has really paid attention. On Tuesday, the Shanghai tin exchange reached a turnover of?739,000 tonnes. This is equivalent to 2 years of global consumption.
Going Small in the US
Shanghai is renowned for its speculative excesses, which are driven by a large army of retail investors who try to catch the next big market movement.
London has no comparable market, as very few individuals have the wealth to meet the credit thresholds required for direct LME trading.
There are signs that some speculators have started to participate in the CME's trading, but not on the main copper contract, but on smaller retail-oriented products.
Volumes of the CME micro-copper contract, which is only 2,500 lb in size, grew 20% annually to reach almost four million tons by 2025.
CME copper "events options"?which offer a simple binary bet on the price underlying, registered turnover in December of 31,000 tons, which is more than the total traded for the entire year of 2024.
Both contracts were launched in 2022 and seem to serve as a bridge to allow retail investors to move from precious metals to industrial metals.
China's CNMIA is right to be concerned about excessive speculation in commodity markets that were once fringe, such as tin. However, the bull story around industrial metals has attracted more and more people to the cause.
Andy Home is an author and columnist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
(source: Reuters)