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Report says India will increase coal consumption over the next 25-year period.
Long-term projections by the government think-tank NITI Aayog indicate that India's coal use could double by 2050 before plummeting as it shifts to cleaner energy. The current scenario, which assumes that no new decarbonisation initiatives are taken, predicts a peak coal demand of 2.62 billion tons by 2050. This is more than twice the current level of 1.26 billion. The report indicates that industrial demand will keep coal consumption at a high level of 1.80 billion tonnes by 2070. India aims to achieve net-zero emission by 2070. Under this scenario, coal use is expected to peak at 1,83 billion tons in the year 2050, before falling back down to 161 million tonnes by 2070. The report stated that virtually all coal usage in 2070 will be limited to sectors which are difficult to abate, such as steel and cement, and will require carbon capture and storage. To meet the forecasted electricity demand, China is the world's second largest coal consumer. It relies on coal for almost three quarters of its energy production. The report warns coal will continue to be essential in the short term, to balance the grid and support the increasing solar and wind energy capacity. The report said that India would need to increase its nuclear energy production, expand the grid, lower the costs of clean technologies and use large battery storage systems in order to move away from coal. The report said that even if coal plants continue to run, they will do so less frequently and will be used to meet peak electricity demands or in emergencies. (Reporting by Sethuraman NR; Editing by Kirsten Donovan )
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The ROI-Hedging strategy has changed. Portfolios need a new playbook: Taosha Wang
Hedging portfolios has been based on the same rules since decades. However, as technology, geopolitics, and trading have changed rapidly, it is time to update the rules. Old playbooks assumed stable relationships. Risk-off meant that bonds rallied. "Safe havens" cushioned withdrawals. Diversification could be left to autopilot. This assumption has proven to be unreliable. Portfolios that are resilient will be required as a result of rising leverage, shifting global alliances and technological disruption. To capture long-term capital preservation and growth, a more deliberate approach is needed. High-grade bonds are one of the most popular hedges. U.S. government debt and investment grade credit are no longer considered "low-risk". Although they are low-volatility under normal conditions, their hedging power is often compromised during inflationary, liquidity, or fiscal shocks. This was demonstrated in 2022. Multiple risks are present in the current environment, which could have a disproportionate impact on bonds. The United States' ongoing fiscal expansion raises concerns about debt sustainability, and threats to the independence of the central bank and growing tensions between America and its trading partners may impact foreign appetite for U.S. government debt. In the meantime, credit indices have become more concentrated, as large tech companies issue bonds to fund massive capital expenditures in artificial intelligence. This does not mean that bonds are unattractive. It means that investors need to be realistic and precise when it comes to the risks that they take on and how these risks can reduce bonds' traditional hedging abilities, especially during times of inflation and fiscal narratives. SAFE, but not Stable The term "safe haven" is no longer synonymous with "stable." Gold is an excellent example. Gold's scarcity and long-standing role of a wealth store remain true, but its biggest buyers continue to be central banks that are not price sensitive. These official buyers have increased their purchases steadily since the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022. According to the CBOE Gold Volatility Index, however, gold's recent volatility rose above 40. This?indicates that gold is at a higher level than most major equity indexes. This is largely due to gold's 200%+ rally since 2022, which has attracted a lot of speculative attention. Gold is a familiar metal and the trading of it has become easier, attracting marginal buyers that are more price sensitive. Gold jewelry has been used as a store for wealth in India and Chinese households use bullion to diversify their currency exposure. The significant increase in gold held by exchange-traded fund since 2024 is proof of this. Gold is more vulnerable to violent'momentum' swings. For example, the intraday 14% selloff of January 30th was the worst since 1980s. This was followed by the best gold performance in a single day since 2008. From DIRECTIONAL to STATISTICAL Hedges In the event that traditional safe havens are no longer available, it is not possible to rely on broad-based hedges. Statistical hedges become more important. Statistical hedges are assets that have a low or negative correlation with a portfolio’s main risks. This reduces volatility without sacrificing returns. Assets that serve as statistical hedges may seem risky when viewed in isolation but are not so when viewed within a larger portfolio. Chinese stocks, for example, have increasingly served as a hedge against U.S. equity risks. Two markets performed very differently during the "DeepSeek Moment" of early 2025 when an open-source, cost-efficient Chinese AI model forced investors reassess U.S. technology dominance and valuation margins. Three forces will benefit Chinese stocks over the next year: a reevaluation its tech sector, stabilizing macro-conditions and renewed support for the private sectors. MSCI China returned 28% in 2025 compared to 16% in the S&P 500. This was the best performance in absolute and relative terms for the former in many years. Allocate to China, but do not consider it a bet on America. In a world where the unchallenged U.S. exceptionalism is fading, it's about hedging your portfolio?risk. Focus on Regime Shifts Statistical hedges are not classic hedges. They require constant reevaluation as macro regimes change. The correlations are volatile and shock-dependent. What hedges an inflation scare may fail to do so in a growth panic. In 2022, for example, energy provided a good hedge because the main risks were inflation and disruption of supply. If we enter a period of excess supply in certain markets for energy, this hedging ability might not hold. In an AI-driven cycle, which is unpredictable and susceptible to sudden changes, it is important to use a "macro régime lens". The hundreds of billions in AI capex that we are currently?seeing seem to be boosting the global GDP, pushing forward demand for resources and increasing leverage. This trend could initially be inflationary but this may change as productivity increases are realized. AI-related job loss could also push central banks into easing even if resource constraints continue, increasing the risk of disorderly inflation. Here, copper could be a valuable asset. Copper, which is usually viewed as a growth indicator rather than an investment hedge, faces a structurally increasing demand due to AI and renewable energy investments, posing a risk of severe and extended supply shortages. Copper could therefore?benefit not only from the AI boom, but also as a hedge to the risks of resource scarcity or disruptive inflation. The new playbook for hedging is based on the principle that protection should be designed and not assumed. It is important to break the habit of labeling assets as "risk on" or "risk off." A hedge can be both volatile, headline-grabbing and profitable. Investors must identify risks, choose the best hedges to mitigate them and monitor the risk landscape constantly. Diversification has become a discipline in a world of volatile correlations and macro-regime shifts. The views expressed are those of this author. Taosha is a portfolio director and the creator of Fidelity's "Thematically Thinking Newsletter". This article is intended for informational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice. This column is interesting to you? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. 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JX Advanced Metals increases FY profit and dividend forecasts due to higher copper prices
JX Advanced Metal raised its dividend and net profit forecasts for the year ending in March. They cited a strong demand for materials used to build artificial intelligence servers, as well as higher copper prices. The Japanese company raised its net profit forecast for the year to 93 billion Japanese yen ($598 millions) from 79 billion yen in November. The company said that demand for products in the segment of 'information and communication materials' for AI server applications has grown 'faster than expected. Stronger copper prices have also supported the growth. The company has increased its dividend per share to?27 from 21 yen, reflecting the strong performance. Natsuki saotome, the general manager of corporate planning, said that JX had agreed to a partial agreement on?treatment and refinement?charges with global miner for 2026. The levels are slightly higher than those Chinese smelters agreed at $0 per kilogram and 0 cents per pound. Saotome stated that while some agreements had been made, others were still being negotiated. Fees paid by miners for the treatment and refining of concentrates into refined metals have been under pressure due to a global increase in smelting capacity, led by China, which has outpaced mined supplies, thus reducing smelters’ margins.
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Dalian iron ore prices end flat as traders weigh low prices against tepid demands
Dalian iron ore closed the day's trading flat on Tuesday after six straight sessions of losses. Traders weighed low feedstock prices, declining shipments and soft demand against low Dalian iron-ore futures. The most-traded iron ore contract for May on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed the daytime trading unchanged at 761.5 Yuan ($110.19). As of 0708 GMT, the benchmark March iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange at $100.4 per ton. It was trading above the psychological $100 threshold. According to data from the consultancy Mysteel, the total amount of iron ore that arrived at 47 Chinese ports decreased week-on-week between February 2-8. The low Dalian iron ore price and weak market fundamentals have encouraged steel mills to buy feedstock. The Shanghai Metals Market stated in a report that despite the recent rise in port discharge rate and the decrease in arrivals, port inventories are still high. The Shanghai Metals Market said that there is currently no inflection point to destocking, and the high levels of inventory will continue suppressing prices. ANZ Research stated in a 'note' that the iron ore industry is 'likely to experience headwinds in the coming year due to the lack of government stimuli to combat the structural decline in the demand. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also struggled. They fell by 1.67% and 1.71 %, respectively. According to the Shanghai Metals Market, market?sentiment towards coking coal and its coke is?subdued because of weak demand for finished products and high inventories. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a softening of most steel benchmarks. The rebar fell 0.55%; hot-rolled steel dropped 0.65%; stainless steel declined 0.63% while wire rod rose 0.18%. ($1 = 6.9110 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Eileen Soreng and Ruth Chai)
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US agency investigating transactions that could have involved Iran, according to Adani flagship
Adani Enterprises announced on Tuesday that an American agency is conducting civil?investigations into the company's transaction that could have involved Iran or other parties that are subject to U.S. sanction. The flagship company of the billionaire Gautam Adani-led group said that it received a request from the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control on February 4. This was after voluntary discussions about a Wall Street Journal article from June 2025 which alleged Adani linked firms imported Iranian liquid petroleum gas into India via shipping routes?that were possibly designed to avoid U.S. sanction. WSJ also reported in its report that Gautam Adani had been trying to convince the U.S. administration of President Donald Trump to drop bribery allegations against him in a different case. Adani Enterprises strongly denied, at the time the report was published, "any deliberate involvement" in sanction evasion or trading involving liquefied gas of Iranian origin. The firm announced on Tuesday that it had "proactively" and "voluntarily" begun discussions with OFAC about allegations made in the media. It also stated that the U.S. government agency has indicated that they are conducting a civil inquiry into certain transactions that were processed by U.S.-based financial institutions, which may have directly or indirectly involved Iran or other parties that are subject to U.S. sanction. Adani Enterprises stated that the OFAC communication did not include findings of non-compliance or violations and it does not anticipate any financial impact. The company stated that it stopped all imports of liquefied petrol gas on June 2, last year. LPG was responsible for 1.46 percent of the company's revenue in fiscal 2025. By 12:15 pm IST, shares of the company had recovered from their lows, falling more than 3%. Adani has been the subject of intense scrutiny since Hindenburg Research, a U.S. short seller, accused it in early 2023 of stock manipulation, accounting irregularities and other allegations, which the conglomerate denies. Since then, the group has faced increased regulatory, legal, and market pressures, with U.S. prosecutors investigating separate allegations of foreign bribery.
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Stocks rise as Nikkei sets record, dollar drops
In Asian trade, global stocks rose on Tuesday. The rally was led by the benchmark Tokyo stock after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's resounding election win over the weekend. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose?0.6%? while the Nikkei225 surged 2.3%?, reaching a new peak for a third day in a row. The yen strengthened for a third consecutive day. The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.2% to a new record. After a two day rally, U.S. equity emini futures have cooled, with S&P500 e-mini down 0.1%. This partially reversed gains made on Wall Street over night. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% on Monday and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.9%, as?technology shares found their feet following last week’s AI-sparked selling off. Robeco’s global head for fundamental equity, Kees Verbaas said: "Overall, the economy is doing well, but we do see some cracks." He added: "The large companies' investment programmes are increasing, not decreasing. This is usually good for the economy." "The AI supply chain can only be made possible by emerging markets." Kevin Hassett, White House economic adviser, said that the Trump administration’s immigration policies could slow labour growth while new AI tools boost productivity. The U.S. Dollar was down by 0.4% against the yen at last, 155.315 yen. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, fell by 0.1% and was near its lowest level of the month, at 96.86. On Monday, the index recorded its largest one-day decline in two weeks. This was after a Bloomberg News article that stated Chinese regulators had advised financial institutions to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bonds due to concerns over concentration risks and market volatility. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett stated on Monday that senior U.S. Treasury officials visited China last Thursday "to strengthen channels" of communication between Washington and Beijing. The dollar last fell 0.1% against the offshore yuan at 6,9092 yuan. Analysts from Alpine Macro stated in a research report that "elevating the role of the renminbi on the global stage is a policy priority." Beijing's primary goal is to reduce the dollar's vulnerability, not to challenge its dominance. Last week, the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds 10-years was flat at 4,184%. The market pricing indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold until June. Fed funds futures indicate a 17.7% implied probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points at the next two-day U.S. Central Bank meeting ending March 18 compared to an 18.4% implied probability on Friday. The Indonesian market remained calm throughout the trading session in Jakarta, gaining 1%. It was largely unaffected by FTSE Russell’s decision to delay a scheduled review of its index. Last month, the larger competitor MSCI warned that Indonesia could be downgraded to frontier status due to data transparency concerns. Brent crude oil was flat last week at $69.06 Silver fell 1.9% to $81.75 an ounce. Gold dropped 0.6% at $5,033.752. Bitcoin dropped 1.7% to $69,192.52 while ether fell 3.7% to $2,042.73. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter, Stella Qiu and Shri Navaratnam)
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Sources: India is in negotiations with Brazil, Canada France and the Netherlands about critical mineral deals
Sources said that India has been in discussions with Brazil, Canada France and the Netherlands to explore, extract and process critical minerals. Sources who declined to identify themselves because the discussions were confidential said that the focus would be on rare earths and lithium, but also that India would seek to access mineral processing technologies. Mining experts say that India's heavy reliance on its arch-rival China, who dominates the global supply of minerals and has advanced technology in mining and processing, highlights the need to reach out to other countries to reduce emissions as it accelerates?its energy transformation. Mining can take many years to go from discovery to production. Exploration alone takes five to seven year and ends up with no viable mine. One source said that India wants to copy the elements of a "critical minerals" agreement signed in January with Germany. The agreement covers exploration, recycling and processing, as well the acquisition and development mineral?assets both in India and Germany and in tertiary countries. The source stated that "there are requests and we are in contact with France, Netherlands and Brazil. We are also actively considering the agreement with Canada." Sources said that the Ministry of Mines leads the effort. Mark Carney, Canada's prime minister, is expected to visit India early in March and sign agreements on uranium and energy. He will also likely sign deals with India regarding minerals, artificial intelligence, and uranium. When asked for comment, Canada’s Natural Resources Department pointed to a statement from January that said?both parties had agreed to formalise their cooperation on critical mineral in the coming week. The Brazilian embassy in New Delhi and the Indian Ministry of Mines as well as the Foreign ministry have not responded to requests for comments. The Netherlands embassy did not respond to a request for comment, while the French embassy declined. India is scouring the globe for critical minerals. It has signed agreements with Argentina, Australia and Japan and is in discussions with Peru and Chile about broader bilateral deals that include critical minerals. India's growing international engagement coincides with the G7 finance ministers and other major economies meeting in Washington last month to discuss how to reduce China's dependence on rare Earths. India has identified lithium as a "critical" mineral for its energy transformation and rising demands from the industry and infrastructure sectors.
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CCTV reports seven deaths in gold mine accident east China
State-run CCTV reported that seven people died in a gold mining accident?in China's east Shandong Province, and that authorities were investigating. Shares of mine owner Zhaojin Mining Industry fell 6% on Wednesday. CTV reported that the accident happened on Saturday, when a cage fell into a mine shaft. The report said that the emergency management and public security departments investigated the cause of the accident and whether it was possible to cover it up. According to the Qichacha Company Registry, Zhaojin Mining Industry is the owner of this mine. As of 0525 GMT, shares of the company had fallen by 6.01%. Zhaojin's main telephone line was answered by a person who said that the matter "was under investigation" and refused to answer any further questions. On Monday, China's emergency management ministry held a conference on preventing accidents during the Lunar New Year holiday. The ministry announced that it would inspect mines, chemicals companies and other hazardous operations. On Saturday, eight people were killed in an explosion that occurred at a biotech firm in northern China.
Coking coal withdraws from profit-taking activities
The prices of coking coal futures declined in China on Monday as investors liquidated their long positions in order to take advantage of the dramatic rise in the price.
Coking coal, the most traded commodity on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE), closed daytime trading 11% lower. It hit a limit of 1,100.5 Yuan ($153.47 per metric ton). The price of coking coal reached the daily limit in five consecutive trading sessions. Last week, it gained 33%.
The Dalian exchange announced a drop in price, ending a seven-day rally fueled by expectations of a reduction in supply after the National Energy Administration had ordered inspections at major coal production hubs for the purpose of checking excess production.
After the Dalian Exchange imposed restrictions on holding positions, some investors liquidated their long positions in order to avoid risks, resulting in an abrupt price drop, said Zhou Tao. An analyst with broker Galaxy Futures.
Coke has also fallen 7.98%.
Markets bet Beijing was finally serious in addressing overcapacity, and prices of commodities such as coking coal, coke, and other raw materials have soared in the last month.
Iron ore, a key ingredient in steelmaking, also weakened on Monday as investors waited for clear signals from the upcoming Politburo high-level meeting that is expected to take place by the end of July and the new trade talks between two of the world's largest economies.
As of 0723 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract was 1.75% less than the previous day's closing price at 786 yuan per ton. The benchmark September iron on the Singapore Exchange fell 2.31%, to $100.9 per ton.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's steel benchmarks have fallen due to lower raw material costs.
Rebar fell 2.05%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 2.3%. Wire rods also declined 2.92%, and stainless steel fell 0.73%. $1 = 7.1707 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Janane Soreng and Eileen Soreng; Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
(source: Reuters)