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Source: Iranian attack damages Saudi Arabia's bypassing Hormuz oil pipeline
An industry source said that other facilities in Saudi Arabia were also targeted in an Iranian attack. An industry source said that the pipeline diverted around 7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), from the oil heartland of the kingdom in the east to the Red Sea Port of Yanbu, after 'Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. This trapped huge volumes of oil and gas, sending the world energy markets soaring. Sources said that the flow of oil through the pipeline would be affected. Damage was also being assessed. This could worsen what experts call the worst energy crisis in history. Aramco exports approximately 5 million bpd, while using?about 2 millions bpd at home. Shipping data show that Yanbu's?loadings averaged near-capacity of 4.6 million bpd in the week starting March 23. This is despite the attacks on the hub. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary 'Guard Corps' (IRGC), in a Wednesday statement, said it had hit several?"targets" across the region using?missiles or drones. This included?what they called oil facilities owned by American companies in Yanbu. (Reporting and Editing by David Goodman, Emelia Sithole Matarise)
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World Bank lowers its Middle East growth projection for 2026 after turmoil in the energy sector
The GCC's growth forecast for 2026 has been reduced to 1.3% due to lower hydrocarbon revenue Kuwait and Qatar's economies are expected to contract in this year The World Bank warns about lingering risks in the region DUBAI, 8 April - In a report released on Wednesday, the World Bank slashed the growth forecast for the Middle East's economies in 2026 as a "consequence" of the conflict between the U.S. and Israel, along with Iran. The report also warned of widespread risks. Donald Trump announced late Tuesday a ceasefire of two weeks in the conflict. The conflict is now in its sixth month. This was subject to Iran agreeing to pause their blockade of gas and oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Foreign Minister said Tehran would cease counter-attacks and provide safe passage across the waterway. The conflict has now entered its sixth week. In its Economic Update for the Middle East and North Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Pakistan, the World Bank Group stated that the closure of the strategic Strait and destruction of public and energy infrastructure had disrupted the markets, increased volatility and weakened growth prospects in 2026. "Risks have a definite downward tilt." The report stated that uncertainty is widespread and that the economic outlook may?shift dramatically if the conflict intensifies. The Group's January forecasts indicate that the overall GDP growth for the?region will slow from an estimated 4% to 1,8% in 2026. This is 2.4 points lower than the Group's estimates. The growth of oil and gas in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iraq is expected to be even slower, as they are among those most affected by the conflict. The World Bank has downgraded their forecast for the GCC which includes Saudi Arabia, the top oil exporter in the world, to just 1.3% by 2026. This is a 3.1-point drop from the January projection. It was mainly due to lower hydrocarbon revenues projected because of the disruptions caused by conflict. Kuwait and Qatar, which are 'less economically diversified and where energy-related disruptions are more serious', will see their growth contract by 6.4% and 5,7% respectively. The current crisis serves as a reminder that the region has a lot of work to do: it must not only withstand shocks but also rebuild stronger economies with better macroeconomic fundamentals. It must innovate, improve governance, invest and create jobs in the infrastructure and boost the employment-creating sector. The World Bank stated that it would not publish any forecasts for Iran beyond the fiscal year 2025/26 due to the "exceptionally high uncertainty". The World Bank said that the real GDP is estimated to shrink by 2.7% during the fiscal year 2025/26 to March 20, 2026. Reporting by Kim Coghill; Editing by Kim Coghill
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How investors are dealing with Iran shocks using the new Trump trades
Investors are putting together a "Trump trade' playbook to?navigate market uncertainty. This includes determining whether a U.S. - Iran ceasefire will last and whether oil prices will remain high for longer. As geopolitics continue to dominate the economy, it is difficult to move money based on long-term perspectives. During the Iran War, many?investors have placed shorter-term bets instead on assets which may have been?mispriced?. Here is a list of some new Trump trades. 1/OIL PRICE WILL STAY HIGHER FOR A LONGER TIME Oil prices fell almost 15% to $100 per barrel in the wake of the ceasefire on Wednesday, but are expected to stay higher longer due to the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures six-months out trade at around $79, a higher price than before the start of the war on February 28. Some analysts claim that they have been swinging too low. They tend to fall sharply when it looks like a detente is more likely. Michael Haigh, Societe Generale’s global head for commodities research, stated that even a successful ceasefire without further tensions could put an upper limit on the price of oil at $85 per barrel. He added that this would increase if more states, now concerned about energy security, began to stockpile oil. Investors who avoided energy producers for years are now 'less bearish. Bank of America's March 31 survey found that 30% of investors still have a negative view of the sector due to ESG concerns. This is down from 40% six months ago. Shell stated on Wednesday that it expects a stronger oil market in the future. 2/ CANADA AND NORWAY Investors said that the U.S. Dollar has recovered its lustre following months of doldrums. However, if the war ends and the demand for the reserve currency is reduced, while crude oil prices remain high, then some oil producing nations' currencies could shine. Van Luu, Russell Investments global head of solutions, said that it would take some time for things to get back to normal. The tankers might not travel for a few months, but oil prices could rise. If oil prices are between $85 and $100 per barrel, energy exporters from politically stable countries (you could include Norway and Canada) should perform better. BOND BOUNCE BACK? The U.S. president Donald Trump's pledge to halt the war sent British and Euro zone government borrowing rates plummeting, as fears of inflation among energy importers began to wane. Money managers have said that these yields are still too high in comparison to interest rates and inflation expectations, particularly in Britain, where the base rate is 3.75% and consumer price inflation is at 3.2%, and the yield on the 10-year bond is slightly below 4.7%. Nicolo B. Bragazza is a Morningstar Wealth Associate Portfolio Manager who is?positive about gilts. In the euro zone, German 10-year yields have a value of around 2.9% in comparison to interest rates which are at 2%. The markets now only price a 20% probability of an April European Central Bank rate hike, down from 60% prior to Trump's Iran ceasefire announcement. Hunting out anomalies Bragazza stated that investors overreact when they hear good or bad news. This creates pricing anomalies, as assets which should not be correlated swing together on markets dominated with war sentiment. Edmond de Rothschild's head of quantitative portfolio management Bruno Taillardat said: "Trading is not as evenly distributed as it should, and some sectors should be immune to this at the very least on a medium-term basis." He pointed out that global healthcare stocks, which are usually considered to be relatively defensive?during recessions have traded in line since the start of World War II with a world-index of economically cyclical companies. Investors who are able to detect the mispricing of opportunities due to daily market movements will stand out in sentiment-driven markets. Taillardat predicted that Trump's rhetoric would keep the markets volatile, and cause headlines to be overreacted to. Morningstar's Bragazza stated that "it's this type of asymmetrical behaviour that creates the right opportunity."
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Hegseth declares US military victory against Iran
U.S. Defense 'Secretary Pete Hegseth stated on 'Wednesday, that the United States a 'decisive - military?victory against?Iran. The missile program in Tehran has been functionally destroyed. Hegseth, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and General Dan Caine spoke to reporters a day after Donald Trump pulled back from a threat of a full-on attack on Iran. Caine stated that U.S. military goals in Iran had been achieved, but the ceasefire was a pause. Forces remain ready to resume combat. Hegseth stated that the U.S. Military was "hanging out" in the Middle East?to ensure Iran complies to the two-week ceasefire and??to monitor the country?s enriched Uranium stockpile. "We're watching the uranium." We'll take it if they give it to us. Hegseth said to reporters, "We'll take it?if we need to." (Reporting and writing by Idrees Al, editing by Katharine Jackson)
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Africa pilots bond to formalise artisanal mining
The firms have announced that a Canada-based advisory firm and a Zambian mid-tier copper miner will pilot a sustainability bond this year to integrate artisanal mining into formal supply chains. Globally, artisanal mining is a source of livelihood for millions. In Africa, it is often done informally near or on company-owned mines. This reduces their profits, spreads pollution, and robs nations of revenue. Rob Karpati said that the proposed "stakeholder prosperiy bond" developed by?Veridicor and Zambia's Metalex Commodities aims to remedy this, according to its finance director. He said that the model "professionalises" the artisanal miners instead of removing them from their land. The instrument ties investor returns to predefined social and environment outcomes for workers and communities, and host economies instead of output. The first issuance will raise between $100 million and $200 million to help Metalex Commodities integrating artisanal and smaller-scale miners through regulated offtake agreement as well as shared infrastructure and investment in equipment. Potential Investors The firms stated that potential investors include European Sustainability Bond Funds, impact and Mining Investors, banks, and wealthy individuals who are focused on sustainability. Zambia, Africa's largest copper producer, is home to tens thousands of artisanal miner, many of whom are located around Metalex's permit in the northwestern part of the country. Karpati said that "large mines are usually the anchors of these, because they have to appear on someone's financial statement." The artisanal miners benefit financially from the fair price and not some predatory intermediary. Industrial mines ?would sit ?at the centre of each bond structure to support repayment, while sustainability-linked terms would adjust interest rates based on social and environmental ?performance, Karpati said. Metalex's founder and CEO Ayo Solitan stated that the bond would enable the company to run large programs integrating artisanal miners into its supply chain. He said: "We intend to source around 30% of our ore from local, trained and licensed miners." The bond allows us to do this at a larger scale than what our balance sheet would allow. Also, the bond will be introduced in Ghana and Democratic Republic of Congo. (Reporting and editing by Philippa Fletcher; Maxwell Akalaare Adombila)
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Copper jumps to a three-week high after US-Iran ceasefire
Copper prices soared to a record high of three weeks on Wednesday, after the?U.S. President Donald Trump has agreed to a?ceasefire? with Iran for two weeks, which will ease fears of an economic slowdown in the world as a result of the Middle East conflict. In open-outcry trading, the benchmark three-month copper price on?the London Metal Exchange rose 2.7% to $12650 per metric ton. It had previously risen as high as 3.6%, to $12,755.50. This was its highest level since March 18. In March, copper prices fell 7.6% due to economic concerns sparked by war in Iran. Trump stated that the?ceasefire depends on Iran's agreement to stop its blockade of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil fell by as much as 16.1% on Wednesday. The brokerage Sucden Financial said that while the ceasefire may have a short-term impact on the energy premium, it is fragile and conditional. This suggests the markets will continue to be driven by headlines rather than a "sustained risk-on background". Discount on the cash LME copper contracts to the forward three-month contract The price of metal has risen to $98 per ton, up from $84.60 on February 2, indicating that there is not a shortage. Copper stocks at LME-approved warehouses On April 7, the number of tons was 385,275, the highest level since March 2018. This is after the influx of?10,075 tonnes to New Orleans and other locations in Asia during the Easter holiday. Prices of aluminium, which spiked after metal was unable to travel its normal route through the Strait of Hormuz from Gulf producers to export markets, have fallen 0.4%, to $3,463 per ton. Late last month, Iranians attacked and damaged smelters in Bahrain and the UAE. This took the supply off the market. Iran's Mehr agency said that reports of a U.S. and Israeli attack on Arak Aluminium?plant, in central Iran, were false. In a broad relief rally, base metals rose in price. Nickel jumped by 2.3%, to $17.345, tin was up 4.3% at $47.950, lead climbed 0.4%, to $1.953, and zinc remained flat at $3.307 (Reporting and editing by David Goodman. Additional reporting by Noel John, Bengaluru)
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Trump announces that the US will discuss sanctions with Iran and work closely together
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that the United States and Iran are working closely together and discussing relief from tariffs and sanctions. This follows the announcement of the two-week ceasefire. Trump backed away from a full-on attack on Iran, which he had threatened to launch 'on Tuesday night. Two hours before the deadline that he set for Tehran in order to open up the Strait of Hormuz. He stated on social media that he had agreed to many of the 15 points in his plan for Iran, but did no elaborate. In a post on social media, Trump stated that "We will talk about Tariffs and Sanctions Relief with Iran." Despite his ebullient remarks, and the widespread relief?on Iran’s streets and on global financial markets?over the ceasefire?, the main differences between Washington and Tehran are still unresolved, and the two sides continue to insist on competing demands for a possible peace deal. Trump said Wednesday that any country providing weapons to 'Iran will immediately be subject to a 50% tariff for any goods exported to America. Beijing and Moscow both assisted?Iran in building military capability to counter U.S.-Israeli pressure. They provided missiles, air defense systems, and technology to strengthen deterrence and complicate U.S. operation and increase the cost of an attack. Russia and China were restrained with their support for the U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran. "VERY PRODUCTIVE RIGIME CHANGE" Trump praised Iran's leaders on Wednesday after U.S.-Israeli?strikes that killed several top officials, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei. His son Mojtaba has replaced him as supreme ruler. "The United States will work closely with Iran. We have determined that Iran has undergone a very productive Regime Change!" Trump wrote a post in Truth Social. The United States and Iran will work together to dig up all the nuclear 'dust' that is buried deep in the ground (B-2 'Bombers'). "Nothing was touched since the attack date." The U.S.-Israeli war has not yet deprived Iran of its stockpiles of?near weapons-grade highly-enriched uranium, or its capability to 'hit its neighbours using missiles and drones. Iran's clerical leaders, who faced a mass protest months ago, have withstood this six-week assault with no signs of internal opposition. Reporting by Doina Heavey and Susan Chiacu; Editing and production by Tomaszjanowski and Gareth Jones
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Russell: The ceasefire in Iran is a sign of hope, but the physical oil market will remain stressed.
The physical oil market is still in a state of turmoil despite a planned two-week stopfire between Iran and the United States. Brent crude oil contracts plunged as much as 16% in the early Asian trade on Wednesday, after finishing at $109.27 on Monday. The sharp drop in prices reflects relief that President Donald Trump's alarming threats against Iran civilisation to be wiped out have been postponed. This also reflects the optimism that crude, refined products and liquefied gas (LNG), may be able to resume and continue through the Strait of Hormuz if negotiations are successful. There is a rule that says that if the word "if", appears in a phrase, then it's the most important part of the sentence. It's very unlikely that the peace talks in this case will result in a lasting resolution, as both sides are far apart on many key issues. The negotiations are scheduled to start in Pakistan this Friday, and will last two weeks. An extension is possible if necessary. Iran's 10-point plan aims at securing effective control of the Strait of Hormuz. This is where up to 20 percent of crude oil, refined petroleum products, and LNG were transported prior to the U.S.-Israeli attack against Iran on 28 February. The market's optimism about the ceasefire could be put to the test if an agreement is not reached in the coming weeks. There will be little difference in the immediate world of crude oil supply and demand. Supply chains are being affected by the disruptions caused by the closure. Physical markets in Asia will be under pressure for several months, even if the strait reopens fully. SAUDI PRICES Saudi Aramco has increased its official selling prices for cargoes loaded in May to record levels. The?state-controlled oil firm of the kingdom raised its OSP for its benchmark Arab Light for Asian refiners by $19.50 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai standard. The price was $17 higher per barrel than the $2.50 increase for cargoes loaded in April. This reflects the growing desperation of some Asian refiners who are desperate to get any crude available. Oman crude finished at $119.31 per barrel on Tuesday, and cash Dubai at $123.20. If these prices continue through May, a barrel of Arab Light Crude for an Asian refiner would cost close to $150. Prices for grades like Oman and Dubai are likely to fall sharply if the ceasefire agreement results in a sustained reopening of Strait of Hormuz. Refiners would still have to deal with the issue of getting enough crude oil while supply chains are severely disrupted. The Saudi price increase may help to rebalance flows, by shifting barrels away from China, which is the largest crude importer in the world, and towards other buyers, such as Japan South Korea, and Singapore. Kpler, a commodity analyst firm, estimates that Saudi Arabia exported 1.37 million barrels a day in April. This is up from the 1.04 million barrels bpd of March. China receives?about 29% of the total imports in April. The high price of Saudi crude oil for May's cargoes could encourage Chinese refiners, however, to reduce imports in favor of cheaper supplies from Russia. Africa, and South America. It may be possible to free up Saudi cargoes so that they can be shipped to countries like Japan and South Korea. Imports from the top exporter of the world have been falling since April. South Korea's Saudi Arabia imports are expected to fall to 520,000 bpd by April. This is the lowest level since?Kpler began collecting data in 2013 and down from January's recent high of 1,14 million bpd. In April, Japan's imports of Saudi Arabia were estimated at 373.600 bpd, a Kpler low. This is down from the December peak of 1,41?million. The crude oil market is likely to use prices to determine the direction of supply. Wealthy countries are likely to be able secure enough?crude to get them through this current disruption. Fuel shortages will cause economic damage to developing countries in Asia and Africa. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
Iron ore prices fall on tepid market demand despite high margins
Iron ore futures recouped their losses on Friday. A tight physical market and high port margins for seaborne ore supported prices. However, upcoming steel production cuts, as well as a tepid demand for feedstocks, curbed the upside.
The most traded May iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), which ended the daytime trading 0.27% higher, was 750.5 yuan per metric ton ($109.47).
The contract has fallen by 0.8% in the last week and by 5.67% for this month.
As of 0705 GMT, the benchmark April iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange was $98.45 per ton.
The contract is expected to lose around?5.1% per month.
As seen in the increase in hot metal production, steel production is still recovering after the Lunar New Year. This provides a floor for prices.
The port margins for seaborne ore are at an all-time high. A trader said that traders are able to resell the imported cargo for a high profit, signaling an onshore tight physical market.
The?trader said that the spread between spot prices at portside and benchmarks on seaborne markets was also a sign of tightness. Spot prices rose faster than the offshore markets, which triggered restocking. The market is expecting a tepid demand for feedstocks due to the imminent undefined steel production cuts that will begin on March 4.
A?note published by the Shanghai Metals Market on Thursday said that overall supply?remains?relatively loose. Port inventories are still high with limited 'destocking. The World Steel Association reported on Thursday that crude steel production in China, which is the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal, fell 13.9% to 75,3 million metric tonnes?in January. Coking coal and coke, two other steelmaking ingredients, also lost ground on the DCE. They were down by 0.73% and 1.03 %, respectively.
The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Both rebar and stainless steel gained 0.03%. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.25%, while wire rod dropped 0.53%.
(source: Reuters)