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Gold prices rise as US-Israeli strikes on Iran spur demand for safe-havens
Gold prices rose on Monday, after U.S. and Israel launched a major strike on Iran that killed the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. This heightened geopolitical tensions, and deepened global economic uncertainty. As of 0201 GMT, spot gold was up 1% to $5,329.39 per ounce after reaching its highest level in over four weeks. Bullion prices rose as high as 2% earlier in the session. U.S. Gold Futures increased 1.8% to $5342.80 an ounce. Israel launched new strikes against Tehran on Sunday, and Iran responded by firing more missiles. This came a day following the death of Khamenei which threw the Middle East into deep uncertainty. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial analyst at Capital.com. He said that the dynamics for gold are positive. Due to increased global political and economic uncertainties, the price of gold, a safe-haven asset, has already reached successive record highs this year. The latest rally builds upon a 64% increase in 2025. This was driven by central bank purchases, strong inflows to exchange-traded fund and expectations of monetary policy ease in the United States. J.P. Morgan & Bank of America both reiterated last week that the gold price could rise to $6,000, a key level. J.P. Morgan stated that it forecasts sufficient demand from central bankers and investors to push gold prices up to $6,300 per ounce by 2026. "Gold is the best barometer for global uncertainty, and to use a metaphor, mercury is rising. "We should expect gold to be priced higher as we enter into a new era geopolitical uncertainties," said independent analyst Ross Norman. Data released on Friday shows that U.S. producer price rose higher than expected in January, indicating inflation may pick up in the coming months. Investors are also watching a series U.S. labor markets readings, such as the ADP Employment Report, the weekly jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls. After registering a gain of 2% in February, spot silver fell?1.2% and is now $92.72 per ounce. Palladium prices rose 0.5%, to $1,795.11 an ounce. Spot platinum dropped nearly 1%, to $2,343.50 per ounce.
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Oil prices soar, stock markets tumble on Middle East turmoil
As military conflict in the Middle East appeared to be extending into the next few weeks, investors flocked to relative safety offered by the dollar and gold. Brent rose?4.5% to $76.07 per barrel. It had briefly reached $82.00 at one point. U.S. crude increased 3.9% to $69.59 a barrel. Gold grew 1.0% to $5 327 per ounce. The United States and Israel's military strikes on Iran have not ceased, but Iran has responded with missile attacks across the region. This could drag its neighbours into a conflict. Donald Trump told the Daily Mail that the conflict could continue for another four weeks. He also posted on Twitter that the attacks would continue until U.S. goals were achieved. The Strait of Hormuz was the focus of attention. It is where a fifth of all oil traded by sea and 20% of liquefied gas are transported. Marine tracking sites show that the waterway is not yet blocked but tankers are piled up on both sides of the strait, perhaps because they cannot get insurance. The most immediate and tangible?development affecting the oil markets is an effective halt of the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This prevents 15 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd), from reaching the markets, said Jorge Leon. He is head of geopolitical analyses at?Rystad. We expect oil prices to rise significantly unless de-escalation signs are quickly sent out. A sustained spike in oil price could reignite inflationary pressures worldwide, and act as a tax for consumers and businesses that would dampen demand. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to a modest increase in oil production of 206,000 barrels a day for April, but a large amount of this product must still be transported out of the Middle East via tanker. Alan Gelder is Wood Mackenzie's SVP for refining and chemicals. He said that the Middle East oil embargo in the 1970s increased oil prices 300%, to $12/bbl by 1974. This is just US$90/bbl by 2026. In today's market, where there are concerns about supply losses, it seems possible to surpass this. The Nikkei fell by 1.4% as a result. Airlines were the worst hit. Blue-chips in China went their separate ways and held steady. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan dropped 1.2%. It's a big US data week The UAE and Kuwait have temporarily closed their stock exchanges in the Middle East, citing "exceptional situations". In Europe, EUROSTOXX50 futures fell 1.4% while DAX futures dropped 1.3%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both fell 0.6% on Wall Street. The dollar was the main beneficiary of the oil shock. The U.S. has a large energy industry and Treasuries remain a safe haven during times of stress. This caused the euro to drop?0.2%, or $1.1788. The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe haven, but the country imports its entire oil supply. This makes the flow of money more bi-directional. The dollar rose 0.1% to 156.25 Japanese yen while the Australian dollar gained, often used as a liquid proxy of?global risks. On the bond market, 10-year Treasury rates have remained steady at 3,970% after briefly touching a 11-month low 3.926%. Bonds were in high demand on Friday after UK mortgage lender MFS went into administration due to allegations of financial irregularities. The collapse of MFS stoked credit concerns, as well-known banks were among its lenders. MFS had borrowed 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion). Wall Street was hit by the news, which impacted banking stocks and AI-related stocks. Investors will also be faced with a torrent of?U.S. This week we have a number of economic reports, including the ISM manufacturing survey, retail sales, and the ever-important payrolls report. After a disappointing quarter, any weakness in the economy could undermine confidence. It would also reduce the chances of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The markets currently indicate a 50% probability of easing this June, and about 60 basis point cuts for the rest of the year. (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes, Shri Navaratnam and Wayne Cole)
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Malaysia renews Lynas Rare Earths' operating license for 10 years
Malaysia has renewed Lynas Rare Earths’ operating license?for ten?more?years?to 'import raw material containing natural radioactive materials and process rare Earths,' the Australian miner announced on Monday. By 0131 GMT the shares of Lynas had risen as much as 7 % to A$20.30, their highest level since October 21, 2025. The benchmark ASX 200 index was down around 0.5%. Lynas, who is the Malaysian Department for Atomic Energy, said that they are expected to issue a?formal license soon. The Southeast Asian country raised concerns about the radiation levels?from the cracking and leaching process, raising fears that Lynas?license would not be renewed. The Australian company's operations will be allowed to continue until March 2026 after the license is amended by the government in 2023. Lynas is investing in its Malaysia facility. It has spent about A$180m ($127.91m) on a new separation facility to meet the?demand of heavy?rare earth oxides that are sourced from outside China.
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Iran conflict slows BOJ rate increases, putting Japan at risk of growth.
Analysts say that a prolonged Middle East conflict could lead to low growth in Japan and high inflation, if oil prices remain high and hit the import-dependent economy. This would complicate the efforts of the central bank to raise interest rates. The oil prices rose 7% on Monday, reaching their highest level in months as Iran and Israel intensified attacks in the Middle East. This disrupted shipments out of the region's main producing area. It was a major blow to Japan which imports 90% of its crude from the Middle East. Sanae Takaichi, the Prime Minister of Japan, told reporters that she had instructed her cabinet to prepare estimates about the economic impact that the weekend's strikes against Iran could have. The extent of the damage to Japan's economy depends on the length of the conflict and the disruption to oil shipments from the Middle East. Japanese shipping firms announced on Sunday that they would cease operations in the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. military strikes on Iran. Although Japan has enough oil to last three months, a rise in crude prices and a blockade on the Strait of Malacca could hurt already weak consumption by increasing prices of a wide range of goods. Analysts say that the combination of soft demand with rising inflation may cause the Bank of Japan to be in a holding pattern. This could delay the next rate increase, which the markets believed could happen as early as April, before the weekend crisis. Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities calculates that a 10% rise in oil prices will reduce Japan's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by around?0.1%. Takeshi Y. Yamaguchi, Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities' chief Japan economist, said: "A sudden rise in oil price would present short-term stagflationary risk, but underlying inflation will likely decelerate on a longer term basis." He said that the BOJ would likely adopt a?cautious approach, reducing?the likelihood of a rate hike in the near future. Nomura Research Institute predicts that the military conflict will cause a disruption to operations in the Strait for a long time, which could lead to an increase in inflation of 0.31%. Takahide K. Kiuchi is an economist with Nomura Research Institute and a former BOJ member. The final quarter of the year saw Japan's economy grow by an annualised 0.2%, with rising costs of living weighing down on consumption. Analysts predict that growth will accelerate, as moderated food inflation and fuel subsides ease the burden on households. Real wages are expected to move into positive territory. (Reporting and editing by Leika Kihara)
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Oil prices rise as the Iran conflict escalates and disrupts shipping
On Monday, oil prices rose 7% and reached their highest level in months as Iran and Israel intensified attacks?in the Middle East. They damaged tankers?and disrupted shipments?from the key producing area. Brent crude futures soared to $82.37 in the first trading session after U.S., Israel and other countries launched attacks on Iran, killing its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, on Saturday. Brent futures at 0054 GMT were $78.24 per barrel, an increase of $5.37 or 7.37%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude rose by $4.66 or 6.95% to $71.68 per barrel, after reaching $75.33 earlier. This was the highest since June 2025. Israel launched another wave of strikes on Tehran Sunday, and Iran responded by firing more missiles. This came a day following the death of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei which threw the Middle East into a state of uncertainty. Shipping sources and officials reported on Sunday that the attacks caused collateral damage to ships as missiles struck at least three oil tankers near the Gulf coast and killed a seafarer. Iran announced that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz to navigation, prompting Asian government and refiners --?key purchasers -- to assess their oil stocks. Daniel Hynes, an ANZ analyst, said that the oil?supplies are at risk now because of the retaliatory actions against oil tankers in Strait -of-Hormuz. Citi analysts predict Brent will trade between $80 to $90 per barrel this week due to the ongoing conflict. The analysts led by Max Layton wrote in a report that "our baseline view is that either the Iranian leadership will change, or that the Iranian regime will change sufficiently to end the war in 1-2 weeks. Or the U.S. may decide to de-escalate after seeing a leadership shift and reduce Iran's nuclear and missile program within the same timeframe." OPEC+ decided on Sunday to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels a day in April, despite the conflict. RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft stated that every OPEC+ producer was essentially at full capacity, except for Saudi Arabia. She said that the use of spare barrels would be "severely restricted" if waterways were rendered inoperable. Shipping data revealed that the risks to commercial shipping increased in the last 24 hours. More than 200 vessels, including oil and gas tankers, dropped anchor in and around?the Strait of Gibraltar and its surrounding waters. Fatih Birol, the director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that the agency is closely monitoring the Middle East. It is also in contact with the IEA and major producers from the region. Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said on Sunday that it coordinates the release of strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) by developed countries during emergencies. Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Daan Stuyven, said that global total visible oil inventory levels are at 7,827 million barrels. This is near the historical median expressed as 74 days' worth of global demand. The oil market may be able to draw inventory, use spare capacity, and benefit from SPR global releases, they said.
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US strikes Iran with B-2 Bombers, Anthropic AI and suicide drones
On Saturday, the United States launched a variety of weapons against Iranian targets, including Tomahawk missiles, stealth aircraft, and low-cost, one-way drones that were modeled on Iranian designs. U.S. Central Command has released photos of Tomahawk missiles and F-18, F-35 fighter planes as well as details about the attacks on Iran in Operation Epic Fury. ARTIFICIAL?INTELLIGENCE According to a source with knowledge of the situation, the Pentagon used artificial intelligence tools from Anthropic during its attack against Iran. Anthropic was declared a supply-chain risk by the U.S. a day earlier, suggesting that it poses a national security threat. Donald Trump also ordered the government on Friday to stop working together with the startup. Could not determine the use of the tools in the war effort. Anthropic and the Pentagon did not respond to a comment request immediately. Anthropic AI is used by the Intelligence Community and Armed Services. It was also the first AI company to deal with classified information through a cloud provider, Amazon. BOMBERS The Pentagon increased its bombings against Iran's military and deployed B-2 stealth aircraft from the U.S. in order to hit hardened underground Iranian missile sites with 2,000 pound bombs. Northrop Grumman's $2 billion flying wing, the B-2, was instrumental in carrying out strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities last June. The B-2, with its 172-foot (52.4-m) wingspan and stealthy profile, can fly up to 6,000 nautical mile without refueling. However, most missions will require multiple midair refueling. DRONES According to photos released by Pentagon, the U.S. Military said that it uses suicide drones which appear identical - based on photos - to 'the new LUCAS(Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System), manufactured by Phoenix-based Spektreworks. The company didn't respond to comments. Pentagon: CENTCOM has used a new technology, one-way 'attack drones' modeled on Iran's Shahed 'drones. Pentagon officials have said that the Pentagon is aiming to produce inexpensive kamikaze drones. The LUCAS costs around $35,000 The LUCAS costs around $35,000 The U.S. used MQ-9 Reaper and counter-drones systems that were much more expensive. TOMAHAWKS Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles are long-range cruise weapons that are launched by sea. They can be used to strike targets at a distance in missions of deep strike. Even in heavily protected airspace, the precision-guided Tomahawk missile can reach targets up to 1,600 km away. The missile is 20 feet long (6.1 meters), has an 8.5 foot wingspan, and weighs approximately 3,330 pounds (1.510 kg). The Tomahawk missile is made by RTX Raytheon and can be launched either from the land or sea. According to Pentagon budget data, US plans to purchase 57 missiles of this type in 2026. Each missile costs an average of $1.3million. There are also ongoing efforts to spend millions on upgrading and modifying weapons, including guidance systems. Raytheon has recently signed an agreement with the Pentagon to increase production to 1,000 Tomahawk missiles per year. The U.S. military and its allies have 'flight-tested' the GPS-enabled Tomahawk, and it has been used in a real-world operational environment. This includes when the U.S. Navy and UK Navies fired Tomahawk missiles on Houthi -rebel sites in Yemen. FIGHTER JET U.S. Central Command has released photos and video footage of F/A-18 fighter jets and F-35 aircraft being used to strike Iran. The F-35 stealth fighter is capable of evading detection by radar and carrying precision-guided weapons. The United States has deployed F-35s across the Middle East. Boeing's F-18 is a multi-role fighter capable of air-to air and air-to ground missions and can carry a variety bombs and missiles. The F-35 can be equipped with a variety of missiles, including those that can destroy enemy radars and blind them. Israeli Air Force also uses the jets. Reporting by Deepa Sethharaman and Mike Stone, with editing by Chris Sanders and Deepa Babington, and Nick Zieminski.
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Stocks plummet as oil prices soar
As military conflict in the Middle East appeared to be extending into the next few weeks, investors flocked to relative safety, including gold, bonds and the dollar. Brent crude rose 7.5% to $78.34 per barrel while U.S. Crude climbed 7.3% to $71.88 a barrel. Gold rose by 1.5%, to $5358 per ounce. The United States and Israel have not ceased their military strikes on Iran, but the Arab nations responded with missile attacks across the region. They risked involving its neighbours in the conflict. Donald Trump told the Daily Mail that the conflict could continue for another four weeks. He also posted on Twitter that the attacks would continue until U.S. goals were achieved. The Strait of Hormuz was the focus of attention. It is where a fifth of all oil traded by sea and 20% of liquefied gas are transported. Marine tracking sites showed that the waterway is not yet blocked but tankers are piled up on both sides of the strait, perhaps because they cannot get insurance. The most immediate and tangible impact on oil markets has been the effective halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This prevents 15 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd), from reaching the markets, said Jorge Leon. He is head of geopolitical analyses at Rystad. We expect oil prices to rise significantly if de-escalation signs do not appear quickly. A sustained spike in oil price could reignite inflationary pressures worldwide, and act as a tax for consumers and businesses that would dampen demand. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to a modest?oil production boost of 206,000 barrels a day for April, but a large amount of this product must still be transported out of the Middle East by tanker. Alan Gelder is Wood Mackenzie's SVP for refining chemicals and oil markets. He said that the Middle East Oil Embargo of the 1970s was the closest historical analogy. It increased oil prices 300%, to $12/bbl around 1974. This is just US$90/bbl by 2026. In today's market, where there are concerns about supply losses, it seems possible to surpass this. This would be costly for Japan as it imports all of its oil. The Nikkei fell by 2.3% with airlines being the worst hit. South Korea dropped 1.0% after an impressive rise this year. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan dropped 0.6%. It's a big US data week In Europe, EUROSTOXX '50 futures fell 1.9% while DAX futures dropped 1.8%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both fell 1.1% on Wall Street. The dollar was the main beneficiary of the oil shock. The U.S. has a large energy export and Treasuries remain a "liquid haven" in times of stress. This caused the euro to drop 0.4%, or $1.1768. The Japanese yen can be a safe haven, but the country imports its entire oil supply. This makes the flow of money more bi-directional. The dollar rose 0.3% to 156.55 Japanese yen while the Australian dollar gained sharply. Bond markets saw 10-year Treasury yields fall 2 basis points, to a three-month low of 3.926 %, after dropping below 4% for the first week since late November. Bonds were bid up on Friday when UK mortgage lender MFS went into administration after allegations of financial irregularities. The collapse of MFS fueled credit concerns, as well-known banks were among its lenders. MFS had borrowed 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion). Wall Street was hit by the news, which slammed banking stocks and also AI-related stocks. Investors will also be faced with a torrent of?U.S. This week we have a number of economic reports, including the ISM manufacturing survey, retail sales, and the ever-important payrolls report. After a disappointing quarter, any weakness in the economy could undermine confidence. It would also reduce the chances of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The markets currently indicate a 53% probability of a easing in June, and around 60 basis points this year. (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes, Shri Navaratnam and Wayne Cole)
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Russell: The key to a boost in crude oil production from OPEC+ is the duration of the disruption caused by Hormuz.
OPEC+'s decision to increase crude oil production by 206,000 barrels a day (bpd), starting in April, is likely?the most unimportant decision that the group has taken during its nearly decade-long existence. Addition of 0.2% to global oil demand in a month is nothing more than a symbol in light of the escalating conflict in the Middle East that is already causing serious disruptions in supply. There was not much the 'eight members' of OPEC+ who are voluntarily cutting production could have done if they had met on Sunday in order to reassure the market that the supply would be secure. Analysts had predicted that the increase in barrels would be 137,000, but the actual number was 206,000. If there's any significance to this meeting, it is the symbolic message of the group saying that they could add more barrels if necessary. The OPEC+ decision to increase output was not enough to keep crude prices from spiking at the Monday open. Brent futures rose as much as 13.6 percent to a 12-month-high of $82.37 a barrel, before easing back to $79.10 by early Asian trade. How will the top oil importers react and for how long? The fog of war is a place where there's always a lot of uncertainty. And the recent bombings and missile attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran and their retaliation against neighbouring Gulf nations are no exception. The decision by Iran to attack civilian targets in the United Arab Emirates could be a strategic mistake or a brilliant move. Much depends on how long Tehran is able to continue the attacks, and how well the UAE can defend the civilians and expatriates who are sure to become increasingly concerned. For crude oil markets it is worth looking at what's known and the most likely reactions to the current situation. Ship owners and insurers do not want to take a risk with their vessels during a major conflict. It appears that Iran has not actively blocked the narrow waterway?that transports almost 20% of global crude oil and product supply. When the shooting ceases, tankers can move quickly through the Strait and ease any supply bottleneck. CHINA AND INDIA Other factors will also likely alleviate some of the concerns about supply. First, China, which is the world's largest crude importer, will likely reduce arrivals over the next few months. LSEG Oil Research estimates that China's imports were strong in the last few months. January's arrivals are estimated to be 11.61 million bpd. February's arrivals are estimated to be 13.42 million bpd. This would surpass the previous record of 13,18 million bpd set in December. By the time the cargoes that are being ordered now?are delivered to them in May and/or June, China is likely to reduce its production by up 2 million bpd. India, Asia's largest crude importer will return to purchasing Russian crude, despite having agreed with U.S. president Donald Trump to drastically cut Russian imports. India's top priority in any Trump deal will be to ensure that it has a secure supply, particularly since Trump's war with Iran is likely to cause India supply problems. If the Strait of Hormuz is constrained in the future, it's likely that importers will release their strategic reserves and exporters around the world will try to maximize production. The Strait of Hormuz is also a major route for liquefied gas (LNG). Qatar's LNG shipments account for about 20% of global LNG shipments. Importing countries can adjust their demand in a similar way to crude oil if the price spikes due to supply disruptions. China, as the top buyer, is most likely?to reduce its spot cargoes or?possibly resell term shipments. Even Europe, which is a continent with price-sensitive buyers such as India, can reduce imports to slow down the replenishment of stocks depleted by the winter peak demand. How long will the shooting war continue? This is the key to both the crude and LNG market. Both sides are likely to?run out of essential munitions, but can probably sustain some type of conflict for a long period. Trump and other leaders may be more likely to face increasing pressure from the public if oil prices continue to rise and remain high. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
High stocks, steel production curbs in Tangshan and a decline in iron ore are the main reasons for this.
Iron ore prices fell on Monday. They were impacted by production curbs at China's top steel hub Tangshan as well as a slow recovery of the?steel market after the holiday season and high portside stocks.
As of 11:30 GMT, the most traded?iron?ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 0.13% to $747 yuan (US$108.81) per metric ton.
As of 135 GMT, the benchmark April iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange was down 0.16% at $98.2 per ton.
Local authorities announced on Saturday that the northern city of Tangshan in China, a key hub for?steel manufacturing, had activated level two emergency response as of Sunday, due to forecasts?of deteriorating air quality.
These measures, which typically require local mills?to curb production and?cool the demand for raw materials, follow previous calls for northern Chinese?mills to reduce output during the annual parliament meeting beginning March 5 to ensure cleaner?air.
Guiqiu Xhuo is an analyst at Jinrui Futures. He said that the slow recovery of steel demand, coupled with stockpiling, has dampened mills’ appetite to restock?feedstocks. This, in turn, has weighed on iron ore prices.
Zhuo said that high portside inventories, which rose?to a record high of 162,17 million tons on February 27 according to data from consultancy Steelhome also limited price increases.
Coking - The price of coal and coke (other steelmaking ingredients) fell by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's steel benchmarks were largely unchanged. Rebar, wire rod, and hot-rolled coils all saw changes of less than 0.1%. Stainless steel increased by 0.64%. $1 = 6.8652 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
(source: Reuters)