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Fed faces new risks to inflation and growth despite US energy resilience

Federal Reserve officials began assessing the risks of an expanding conflict in the Middle East, despite the relative resilience of the U.S. economy to energy price shocks. New York Fed President John Williams stated on Tuesday that a potentially open-ended conflict between the U.S., Iran and their proxies could have a spillover effect to the U.S. through lower asset prices, trade shocks for U.S. allies and higher inflation. It will take some time to assess the net impact of this conflict on the U.S. Economy and Fed policy. There is no way to compare the current situation with other similar events, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which affected both the economy and prices in Europe, but didn't have a major effect on the U.S. Williams said that no one knows how long the current situation will last, or what the wider implications are. Past experience shows that the movements in oil prices we've seen thus far do not fundamentally change the economy. But we'll "wait and see"

It's a development that could hit both our mandated targets in an opposing manner?in a short-term - increase inflation and possibly slow global growth. The important question, however, is how much of an impact this has on the U.S. and how long-lasting these effects are.

Williams told reporters that the "transmission" is mainly through asset prices and financial markets reactions. These have so far been relatively muted.

GLOBAL OIL PRICES SHOCK IS UNLIKELY. The initial reaction on the financial markets to President Donald Trump's war against Iran was to place a premium on inflation risk. Investors bet on a slightly tighter U.S. monetary policies and slower rate cuts before President Donald Trump launched massive attacks on Iranian targets in consultation with Israel. Trump promised to continue the attack as long as necessary to remove the Islamist regime whose 1979 overthrow led to an oil price shock around the world.

It also stoked the inflation in the United States.

Williams cited the impact of the conflict on U.S. trade partners, especially in Europe, as well as investor perceptions of risk and uncertainly, which could have a significant impact on the Fed's response to monetary policy and the economy. The Fed's rate-cutting plans were further slashed by the fierce selling on Tuesday in the Treasury and Rates Futures markets, amid rising oil prices that heightened concerns about inflation. U.S. Oil prices have risen by more than 13% in the past week since the weekend's attacks which killed Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei. This has prompted threats of counter-attacks, including the closure of the Strait o'Hormuz. The Strait is responsible for about 20% of world crude oil flows.

According to AAA, U.S. gasoline retail prices have increased by 10 cents per gallon over the past 24 hours. AAA predicts that more increases are likely in the near future. The rate futures sale?lowered to 35% the chances of a Fed rate reduction?in the month of June, when Kevin Warsh (Trump's nominee for Fed Chair Jerome Powell) would be leading a policy-setting session for the first-time. The traders now see only a 55% probability of a Fed rate cut in July. This is down from 70% recently.

The perception of a further cut beyond the initial one has also dropped. (Reporting and editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao and Ann Saphir)

(source: Reuters)