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India's imports of soyoil fell to a four-month low due to port congestion in June
Industry officials have said that India's imports of soyoil in June will likely fall 18% from the previous month to their lowest level in 4 months. This is because congestion in a major port will cause vessels to be unloaded in July rather than June due to congestion. Nearly two-thirds (67%) of the world's largest importer of edible oils is met by imports. Delays in unloading ships could lead to a shortage on the local market, which would increase prices. According to Rajesh Patel of GGN Research and edible oil trader, the June soyoil exports will likely fall to 325,000 tons from an earlier estimate of 400,000 tonnes, due to congestion at Kandla Port. Kandla Port in Gujarat's western state accounts for one quarter of India’s total imports of vegetable oil. This is because many nearby edible oil refineries choose this port to import their products. "At the moment, edible oil ships are subject to waiting periods between 9-10 days. According to the list of incoming ships, this wait could increase to 15 days, said B.V. Mehta. He is the executive director of Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Mehta stated that delays result in high demurrage charges, which increase import costs overall and raise the price of edible oil for consumers. A New Delhi-based trader at a global trading house said that the congestion at Kandla also affects palm oil imports. However, any impact on their supplies will be minimal, as a significant amount is being discharged in ports in eastern India. India imports a lot of palm oil, mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. It also imports sunflower oil and soyoil from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. (Reporting and editing by David Evans; Rajendra Jadhav)
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West Africa mine operators use drones to detect illegal miners as gold prices rise
Three men launch a drone in the clear skies above Gold Fields' Tarkwa mine, a sprawling 210 square kilometer gold mine located in southwest Ghana. The drone's cameras scan the area for any intruders as the sun beats down. A drone detected something strange, and a 15-person police team arrived within 20 minutes. The team found abandoned clothing, newly dug trenches and rudimentary gear in pools of mercury- and cyanide contaminated water. Wildcat miners who work on the fringes of official mines in Africa left the equipment behind. They put their health, the environment, and the profits of official mine operators at risk. The team seized seven diesel-powered pumps, as well as a "chanfan", a processing unit that is used to extract gold out of riverbeds. According to mining executives and experts, the high-tech game of cat-and mouse is becoming more common as gold prices rise above $3,300 an ounce. This has led to increased unofficial activity, which can lead in some cases, to deadly confrontations, between corporate concessions, and artisanal miner's in West Africa. Edwin Asare is the head of Gold Fields Tarkwa Mine’s protection services. "Because the vegetation covers the area, you will not know if something is going on," says Asare. It's as if you get eyes in the air to help you place boots on the ground. No reports have been made of any injuries to official mine personnel. Conflicts in corporate mines have caused production to be halted for up to one month. Companies then pressed governments to provide more military protection. Boots on the Ground According to a United Nations report from May, the unofficial mining operations in Sub-Saharan Africa provide a critical source of income for almost 10 million people. Other industry data indicate that in West Africa, between three and five million people are dependent on unregulated gold mining. This accounts for about 30% of the region's gold production. These people provide economic support to a region where there are few formal job opportunities. Many residents, like Famanson Keita, 52 years old in Senegal’s gold-rich Kedougou Region, grew up in their localities mining gold. They supplemented their farming incomes with simple and traditional methods until corporate mining companies arrived and relocated them to other communities, promising jobs and rapid growth. Keita said, "Those promises were not fulfilled." Many of our youth are working in low-level jobs that do not have contracts, with little pay and without stability. "Small-scale farming cannot support our families." Local residents have tried to make a living in the shadows of mining companies for many years. However, the majority of illicit activities, especially those that occur around large bodies of water and forests, are now carried out with sophisticated equipment, such as dredging and digging tools, and funded by local cartels or foreigners. Economic pressures With central banks buying more gold and geopolitical tensions increasing, gold could reach $5,000 per ounce. Ulf Laessing, a mining and security analyst focusing on the Sahel region, warned that violent clashes near mining operations are likely to increase in the months ahead. Laessing is the head of Germany's Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Sahel Program. She said: "The higher the gold price, the more conflict we will see between the industrial and informal miner." A source from the company, who declined to identify themselves, said that nine wildcat miners had been shot dead at AGA’s Obuasi Mine in Ghana in January when they opened the 110-square-kilometer concession fence to search for gold. According to a source with knowledge of the mine operations, in February hundreds of wildcats invaded AGA's Siguiri Mine concession, located northeast of Guinea. This prompted military intervention. Police said that in January at least three wildcat miner were shot and injured by guards on Newmont's Ahafo Gold Mining Site in northwestern Ghana. An excavator driver at a Kenieba illegal mining site told a reporter that Chinese bosses have been deploying new equipment on new sites in Mali's gold rich Kayes region as gold prices rise. We were unable to determine who these Chinese operators are, or if they have any connections with companies or official organisations. Ghanaian authorities are destroying dozens of unregulated gold mining operations, including in protected areas, and arresting foreigners and locals. Marc Ummel is a researcher with Swissaid. He says that because of weak regulations and porous borders, most of their products are smuggled, denying the countries the full benefits. Swissaid analysed data from the exports of Ghana between 2019 and 2023. It found that Ghana lost 229 metric tonnes of gold, mainly artisanal, to smuggling. Adama Soro is the president of West African Federation of Chambers of Mines. He said that artisanal miner's compete with large-scale mining companies for ore and shorten mines lives. He said that artisanal mines were digging as deep as 100 meters, which was affecting the ore bodies of large-scale miners. ARMED MILITARY PROTECTION The head of an mining company heavily affected by wildcat miner in Ghana said that miners have resorted to unconventional methods, and they are increasing their spending at the expense community projects and investment. Source: The mine spends about half a million dollars annually to combat wildcat-mining, which includes drone surveillance. However, it still suffers frequent attacks. Recent incursions have been reported at Nordgold, Galiano Gold B2Gold, and Barrick Gold. Ghana's corporate mining giants have increased their efforts to secure military protection for their mine sites in the past year. According to three mining executives, and an industry analyst who requested anonymity, similar requests were made in Burkina Faso, and Mali. Ahmed Dasana Nantogmah is the chief operating officer of Ghana’s Chamber of Mines. He said, "Ideally, we would like to have a military presence in all mining operations. However, we do understand that we need to prioritize those sites which are consistently attacked while maintaining regular patrols on others." Nantogmah said that industry leaders met with government officials to discuss their concerns in mid-April. Discussions yielded "positive" outcomes. Ghana's government has not responded to any requests for comment. Two mining executives involved in the negotiations said that Ghanaian authorities wanted miners to pay for deployment costs. These are estimated at 250,000 Ghana Cedis (18,116 dollars) per daily contingent of less than 50 personnel. The Minerals Commission in Ghana, which regulates the mining industry, has taken a major technological step forward by establishing a control room powered by AI to analyze data collected from 28 drones that are deployed at illegal mining hotspots. The system includes tracking devices on excavators, and a remote control system to disable excavators that are operating outside of authorized boundaries. Sylvester Akpah is the consultant for Ghana's mining regulator's drone and AI-powered surveillance project. (Reporting and editing by Veronica Brown, Claudia Parsons, and Emmanuel Bruce Additional reporting by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila)
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After Congo extended its export ban, China cobalt prices hit a 3-month high.
The price of cobalt in China, the world's largest consumer of the material, jumped Monday to its highest level in more than three months as the Democratic Republic of Congo extended the export ban. This rekindled supply concerns. Congo, world's largest cobalt producer, has extended its ban for another three months, after initially imposing a four month restriction in February, to reduce the oversupply of this material used in electric vehicle batteries. The cobalt futures contract with the most activity on China's Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange rose more than 9%, reaching its highest level since March 14, at 254 yuan per kilogram ($35.34). Analysts at Guosen Metal stated that "the seven-month ban on exports by Congo will reduce global supply of cobalt by over 100,000 metric tonnes and will cause a shortage in supply in the domestic market." Export ban triggered after cobalt prices hit historically low levels. Automakers were hurt and miners increased output of copper (from which cobalt can be extracted as a co-product) to take advantage of high prices. China's CMOC Group - the world's largest cobalt producer - said that the extension would not have a significant impact on its operating results. A CMOC spokesperson stated that "a stable and healthy market is conducive to sustainable development and continuous growth in demand for cobalt product," adding that operations at the Tenke Fungurume Mining site and Kisanfu Mining site are currently normal. Reports earlier this month stated that the world's second largest cobalt producer, Glencore, had declared force majeure for some cobalt deliveries from Congo, days after the Congolese government banned exports of battery material. Reporting by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Sumana Nandy; editing by Sumana Niandy.
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Holcim completes spin off of North American business
Holcim completed the spin-off its North American business. Shares in the separate company - Amrize- will begin trading in Zurich on Monday and New York the following day. The Swiss cement manufacturer Holcim said that it would spin off the company to focus on the different dynamics of the North American and global markets. Holcim's future focus will be on Europe, Latin America and North Africa, while Amrize operates in the United States of America and Canada. Holcim CEO Miljan Gutovic said: "This is a momentous occasion for Holcim, as we embark on a new journey as independent companies." Holcim announced its new strategy in March. It said that it would aim for an average annual increase in earnings before taxes and interest of between 6% and 10% by 2030. This growth will be driven by acquisitions and mergers. Amrize, whose sales reached $11.7 billion by 2024, aims to grow at a rate of 5-8% per year. It wants to grow its core operating profits by 8-11% from $3.2 billion in 2025-2028. (Reporting and editing by Miranda Murray, Miranda Revill)
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Indonesian weather agency revised outlook for shorter dry season by 2025
Most areas in Indonesia will see a shorter-than-expected dry season this year due to higher-than-normal precipitation thus far, the country's weather agency said, which is expected to boost the rice crop in Southeast Asia's largest economy. The Indonesian Meteorology and Geophysics Agency had predicted that the dry season would be normal this year. It began in April for most areas and reached its peak from June to August. In a weekend statement, Dwikorita Karanawati, the head of the agency, said: "Our prediction shows there was an anomaly with higher-than-normal rainfall... This becomes the basis for predicting the delayed dry season in this year." Dwikorita, who said that the longer wet period is expected to benefit farmers of rice because of the water supply remaining available, added that as of early June only 19% have seen the dry seasons begin. The statistics bureau reported that Indonesia's rice production in the period January to July is expected to increase by 14.93% annually to 21,76 million metric tonnes. The Indonesian rice production was to be 32 million tons in this year. This is higher than the 30.62 million tons of last year. Dwikorita stated that higher-than-normal rain is expected to fall in the southern parts of Sumatra, Java, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara, and West Nusa Tenggara Provinces. She added that the dry season would first affect some parts of Sumatra and Borneo. Climate change is causing unpredictable weather patterns, and the agency has urged local governments to prepare for this. The agency reported that heavy rains fell in certain parts of Indonesia between January and March. In early March, torrential rains caused floods up to three metres high in Jakarta, Indonesia's capital. Thousands were forced to evacuate. (Reporting and editing by Gibran Pshimam, Vijay Kishore and Ananda Teresia)
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Now the ball is on Iran's court.
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Trump is adding to the uncertainty of the world by involving the United States in yet another Middle East conflict. The word "bombs", or the announcement of an attack by a president on social media is not something that happens very often. The U.S. government says that it is not at war, and will not escalate its actions if Iran achieves peace. It also claimed it did not aim to change the regime in Iran until Trump made a post on social media about this very possibility. Tehran is now in control and hasn't yet attacked any U.S. sites, despite reports that its parliament had approved a plan to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported that such a move will need to be approved by the Supreme National Security Council. Polymarket has even published a book about the probability of Iran closing the Strait. The current figure is 47%. Now, every market analyst is an expert in how to shut down shipping lanes, bunker-busting bombs, and the complexities of enriching Uranium. Market participants are hoping that this U.S. action will not escalate and, if Iran's nuclear plans really do get pushed back by several years, it might make the region more secure. Analysts note that OPEC can add extra supplies if it wants to. Oil is up nearly 2% but still well below the early five-month peaks. Wall St futures have fallen 0.3% after starting with a loss of 1%. European futures have also dropped 0.4%. The dollar is slightly stronger against the euro and the yen. This reflects the EU's and Japan's reliance on LNG and imported oil, as well as the U.S. position as a net-exporter. Treasury yields have increased slightly. There are not as many bids for safe-haven assets. Fed fund futures, however, are down by a small amount, probably on the fear that a sustained increase in energy prices could lead to an inflationary spiral, just as tariffs begin to affect prices. Powell will be grilled on this and Trump's threat to fire him when he appears before Congress on Tuesday or Wednesday. Powell's response to Fed Governor Waller suddenly embracing a rate cut in July will be fascinating, especially since the FOMC choir seemed to have been singing the same cautious hymn. The markets still give a 16% chance that a July move will occur, and they prefer to bet 70% on a move in September. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact - EU and UK pmIs for June ECB President Christine Lagarde's Introduction - Appearances of Fed members Waller Bowman Goolsbee Kugler
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Markets await Iran response as gold falls amid dollar gains
The gold price fell on Monday, as investors favored the dollar after the U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear sites at the weekend. Markets are closely monitoring Iran's reaction. As of 0341 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.2%, at $3,362.29 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.2% to $3378. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that the US strike on Iranian nuclear sites resulted in safe-haven buying flows for the dollar in the currency markets. This USD increase had pegged back gold and caused a subdued performance despite the risks arising from the conflict. Gold became more expensive to other currency holders as the dollar increased by 0.2%. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, raised on Sunday the issue of a regime-change in Iran in the wake of the U.S. strikes that targeted key military sites in Iran over the weekend. Senior officials in the Trump administration warned Tehran to refrain from retaliation. The U.S. dropped bunker-busting bombs weighing 30,000 pounds onto the mountain that overlooks Iran's Fordow Nuclear Site. Iran and Israel have continued to exchange missile attacks. Israeli military spokeswoman said Israeli fighter planes struck military targets in west Iran. Oil prices briefly reached five-month highs on Monday, and shares fell in Asia. But there was no panic selling. In the Federal Reserve's latest report on monetary policy to Congress, published on Friday, it was stated that U.S. inflation remained elevated, and the labor markets were solid. According to Wang Tao, technical analyst, the spot gold price may test support at $3348 an ounce. A break below this level could lead the way towards $3324. Other metals rose in price as well. Spot silver increased 0.2% to $36.07 an ounce. Platinum edged up 0.1% to $1.269.17. Palladium gained 0.2%, to $1.046.62.
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Dalian Iron Ore reaches a new high in a week on the back of improved China demand
Dalian iron-ore futures prices reached their highest level in over a week on Monday, boosted by improved short-term prospects for steelmaking ingredient China. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading 0.5% higher, at 706 Yuan ($98.22). In the morning session, prices reached 709.5 yuan - their highest level since June 13. The benchmark July Iron Ore at the Singapore Exchange rose 0.15% to $93.65 per ton. According to Chinese consultancy Mysteel, hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, increased 0.24% on a weekly basis to 2.422 millions tons as of 20th June. Everbright Futures, a broker, said: "Hot metal production is expected to remain stable in the short-term, which will support iron ore prices." Broker Galaxy Futures stated that the construction materials consumption in China has already weakened as we enter the off-season. The rainy season, which usually begins in June, has already begun and is further dampening the demand. Mysteel, in a separate report, said that the capacity utilisation rate for China's electric arc furnace steelmakers dropped 2.2% from week to week to a low of 54.5%. It attributed this to persistently negative margins. Steelhome data shows that the total stockpiles in China of iron ore increased by 0.9% on a weekly basis to 134.6 millions tons as of 20 June. The dollar index rose 0.12% Monday, mainly due to safe-haven demand. Dollar-denominated investments are less affordable for holders of currencies other than the greenback. Coke and coking coal, which are both used to make steel, traded in a sideways fashion. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen. Hot-rolled coil, wire rod and rebar all fell around 0.2%. Stainless steel also lost 0.4%.
Aluminum outperforms Copper on Energy Cost Concerns amid US-Iran Tensions
The most traded contracts on London and Shanghai exchanges surged as U.S. attacks on Iranian military sites pushed up energy prices, a major cost factor for this energy-intensive metal.
LME's three-month contract for aluminium rose up to 3.3%, to $2.634.5 per ton. However, it then eased to $2.580.50 (up 1.22%) by 0101 GMT. The SHFE's most-traded aluminum contract rose 0.54% to 20,525 yuan per metric ton ($2,859.23).
Comparatively, LME copper rose 0.16%, to $9,648.5 yuan, while SHFE copper grew 0.31%, at 78.420 yuan.
The aluminum price is sensitive to energy prices. It has therefore reacted strongly to oil costs. Now, the question is whether Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, said a Beijing metals analyst of a futures firm, who requested anonymity.
He said that the Strait of Hormuz was crucial for the Middle East's bauxite, alumina, and power shipments. Power accounts for 40% of total costs in aluminium melting.
U.S. president Donald Trump raised the issue of regime change in Iran on Sunday following U.S. attacks against key military sites at the weekend. Senior officials in his government warned Tehran against retaliation.
Brent crude futures rose 2.44% to $78.89 per barrel as of 1122 GMT. This was the highest price since January.
LME Zinc contract rose 0.5% to $2643 per ton. Lead increased 0.1%, to $1994.5. Tin fell 0.1%, to $32,650.
SHFE tin rose 1.2%, to 263,950 Yuan per ton. Lead increased by 0.4%, to 16,925 Yuan. Zinc went up by 0.3%, to 21,980 Yuan.
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DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 0715 France HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI June 0730 Germany HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI June 0800 EU HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI June 0830 UK Flash Composite, Manufacturing, Services PMI June 1345 US S&P Global Mfg, Svcs, Comp PMI Flash June 1400 US Existing Home Sales May
(source: Reuters)