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London copper prices rise on weaker dollar
London copper prices rose slightly on Thursday, despite a weakening U.S. Dollar. The market's focus was on the ongoing trade talks between the U.S. As of 0702 GMT the three-month copper contract traded on the London Metal Exchange rose nearly 0.4%, to $9,656.5 a metric ton. The most actively traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange remained at 781,170 yuan per ton ($10,884.46). The dollar index (which measures the U.S. dollar against six other currencies) was at 98.87, and has fallen about 9% in this year. It is on track to have its worst yearly performance since 2017 Dollar-denominated investments are more affordable for holders of currencies other than the U.S. On Wednesday, U.S. president Donald Trump said that his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping was "extremely difficult to make a trade with". This exposed frictions, after the White House had raised expectations for a long-anticipated phone call between these two leaders. Canada was preparing possible retaliations, while the European Union announced progress in trade negotiations on Wednesday as the new U.S. Metals Tariffs caused more disruption to the global economy, and increased urgency in negotiations with Washington. ANZ reported that "Trump's tariffs of 50% on aluminum and steel have raised expectation that he would soon follow through on his pledge to impose tougher duties on copper, as well", Tin prices on the LME fell around 0.2%, to $31,950 per ton. This was after they had hit a record high of $31,950 on Wednesday. The reason for this is that there are concerns about the slow resumption in supply from Myanmar's rich tin state Wa. Lead eased 0.4% at $1,983, and nickel edged up by 0.3% to $15440. Lead added 0.4% at 16,695 Yuan while nickel fell 0.4% at 121,570 Yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. DATA/EVENTS : (GMT) 0830 US S&P GLOBALPMI: MSC Composite - OUTPUT MAY 1215 EU ECB refinancing, deposit rate Jun 1230 US International trade $ Apr 1230 US Jobless Clm, 31 May w/e. 1430 US EIA - Nat Gas Chg Bcf, Nat Gas - EIA Implied Flow, 30 May w/e.
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Iron ore prices fall as the focus shifts from China's steel demand to a softening of iron ore.
Iron ore futures fell on Thursday as the focus returned to a softening of steel consumption during China's off peak demand season. The daytime trading price of the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 701 yuan (US$97.60). As of 0701 GMT, the benchmark July iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 0.8% to $94.7 per ton. Analysts at Galaxy Futures stated that prices of the main steelmaking ingredient will fluctuate due to the seasonal weakness in demand. The iron ore market is not changing fundamentally. "The upward momentum caused by the coal price rally faded and ore prices also weakened," said Zhuo Guqiu, a broker at Jinrui Futures. Zhuo said that the downside potential of hot metal production is limited by its relatively high output, despite reductions in production and falling portside inventories. Iron ore demand is usually gauged by the hot metal production. Galaxy's analysts noted that despite a recent trade truce, the steel exports are showing signs of a slump, which is dragging down demand. A weak steel demand is a risk to feedstocks. Following Wednesday's rally of more than 6%, other steelmaking ingredients coking coal, and coke, have also seen gains, albeit slower. They are up 1.68%, and 0.56% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are range bound. Rebar grew 0.14%; hot-rolled coil fell 0.19%; wire rod grew 0.06%; and stainless steel climbed 0.2%. $1 = 7.1822 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Eileen Soreng).
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Nickel supply will continue to expand despite slower demand growth, according to industry experts
Speakers at an industry conference this week predicted that oversupply on the global nickel market would persist in the coming years due to the expansion of production capacity and the slower growth in demand, particularly for the metal used as a component in stainless steel and batteries. The benchmark price has been halved over the last three years due to a surge in nickel production in Indonesia. This country is the largest producer of nickel in the world with a 63% market share. Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon said at a Shanghai Metals Market industry conference in Jakarta that the market was oversupplied. In addition, he added, "Indonesia will soon complete several projects, which will increase production capacity." Lennon believes the surplus will continue to grow until 2027-2028. The London Metal Exchange's most traded nickel contract was trading at $15,380 a metric ton on Thursday morning, after hitting a low of $13,865 five years ago on April 7. Nickel reached a record-high above $48,000 per ton early in 2022. Lennon stated that the $15,000 threshold is critical for costs in the industry. He said that after production cuts started in 2022-2023 half of the existing producers would be at risk if price falls below this level. The use of lithium iron phosphate (LIP) batteries, which are cheaper, has slowed the growth in nickel demand. The analyst's estimate of the battery industry's nickel consumption in 2030 has been reduced to 967,000 tonnes, down from 1.5 million tons as predicted by the industry two years ago. Nickel consumption by the battery industry was 518 tons in 2013. Denis Sharypin is the strategic marketing director of Nornickel in Russia. He said that prices are being pushed lower by an oversupply, which means about one-fourth nickel producers worldwide are losing money on a cost-plus basis. Steven Chen, the global sales director at Eternal Tsingshan Group Ltd (part of China's Tsingshan holding group), said that Indonesian nickel pig iron smelters, which is an alloy used to make stainless steel, also face margin compression. Chen stated that "Smelters have been struggling and this may lead to a reduction in production. There may also be widespread cuts or closures of some smaller smelting facilities in the near future." Indonesia's mining ministry has stated that the government will manage nickel supply and demand in order to support prices. Hongmei Li, Singapore (Writing & Additional Reporting) Mrigank Dhaniwala (Editing).
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Lynas, Australia's automaker, surges after warnings from Chinese export restrictions on rare earths
Shares of Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths rose to their highest level in over two years on Thursday, after automakers warned China’s export restrictions could cause production delays. Lynas, the largest rare-earth manufacturer outside of China, is expected to profit from global supply concerns. Analysts believe that the rising geopolitical tensions and the demand for essential minerals could be favorable for the Australia listed company. Lynas stock rose 11.8% to A$9.2, reaching its highest level since the 8th of February 2023. This was also the biggest intraday percentage increase for the stock since October 24, 2023. Hebe Chen is a market analyst with Vantage Markets. She said: "Lynas rally...is a powerful representation of the dual forces at work today: escalating global tensions and surging green technology demand." As China tightens its rare-earth export restrictions, the markets price in supply risk -- positioning Lynas as a strategic hedge. In April, China, which produces 90% of the world's rare-earth minerals, implemented export restrictions on strategic minerals as a response to tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. This move has raised alarms in industries that rely on 17 rare earth elements. These are essential for advanced electronics, defense systems, and electric vehicles. German automakers have emphasized the urgency of their concerns this week by warning that China's restrictions on exports of rare-earth minerals pose a serious threat to production and local economies. The European auto supplier association CLEPA reported that several production lines had shut down due to a lack of supplies. Mercedes-Benz, on the other hand, said it was in talks with top suppliers to build "buffers", such as stockpiles, to protect against possible threats to supply. China is the world's largest supplier of rare-earth metals, despite the fact that these elements are common in the earth crust. This is because China has mastered the environmentally difficult and complex refining process. Lynas, a non-Chinese producer, is a key player in the U.S. rare-earth industry.
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Asian shares continue to rise, while the dollar languishes in front of the ECB
The U.S. Dollar remained stagnant as the European Central Bank released its outlook on a turbulent global economy. Dollar fell in the previous session due to weak U.S. data on jobs and services. Friday will bring more important employment data. The damage to the U.S. economic system is becoming more evident as a result of President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies, and bilateral agreements remain unrealised. The European Union and Canada reported progress in their trade negotiations with Washington. In this context, the market will be paying greater attention to any signals that Christine Lagarde gives about her future plans. Kyle Rodda is a senior analyst for Capital.com. He said that there's uncertainty regarding the guidance given by the central bank, due to the uncertain outlook of U.S. global trade policy and U.S. Trade Policy. If the central bank fails to provide sufficiently dovish advice, it could disrupt the equity markets and give the euro upward momentum. Trump's doubled tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum took effect on Wednesday. They were aimed at Canada and Mexico. On the same day, Trump's administration asked trading partners for "best offers" to prevent other import levies from taking effect in July. Ryosei Acazawa, Japan's top trade negotiator, will be in the U.S. for another round on Thursday. Friedrich Merz is due to travel to Washington as well. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose by 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei index fell 0.5%. South Korea's benchmark KOSPI stock index surged by 0.9%, reaching a new 11-month high due to the extended optimism following the election of Lee Jae Myung as president. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.5% on the back of tech shares. Chris Nicol is the Australia equity strategist for Morgan Stanley. He said that the markets are complacent in the sense that they expect to continue with the resolution of issues and the closing of deals. "The policy has yet to be set in stone, and the impact on growth and inflation is still uncertain." The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) rose by 0.1% to 98.879 and reversed its 0.5% decline on Wednesday. The dollar increased by 0.2%, to 143 yen. The euro was mostly flat at $1.1411, after a 0.4% increase in the previous session. Gold lost its gains of the previous day, while oil fell after an increase in U.S. stocks and Saudi Arabia slashed its July crude prices for Asian buyers. Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,367.30 an ounce. U.S. crude fell 0.5% to $62.58 per barrel. The S&P 500 futures as well as the Euro Stoxx 50 pan-region futures were not much changed.
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Ukraine and the US discuss ways to make the minerals fund operational within a year
Ukraine's Yulia Shvyrydenko said that the United States and Ukraine have discussed ways to make the minerals fund operational before the end of this year. The fund's initial meeting is scheduled for July. Svyrydenko signed the agreement in Washington, after months of hard negotiations, which made the terms more favorable for Kyiv. The agreement was heavily promoted by U.S. president Donald Trump. The Ukrainian parliament ratified this agreement. Svyrydenko met with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent on Wednesday and the Development Finance Corporation which will be the partner of the Minerals Fund. "We discussed very concrete steps to make this fund functional during this year," Svyrydenko told reporters. We will have our first board meeting in July to discuss the seed capital needed to operate this fund. We should also adopt a strategy for investing in this fund over the next few decades. Negotiations leading to the signing of the Mineral Fund deal were preceded by a heated discussion between Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House about how to end Ukraine's war with Russia, which has lasted for three years. Zelenskiy's ability to repair his relationship with Trump was dependent on the agreement. In April, the two men briefly met at the Vatican during the funeral for Pope Francis in order to get their relationship back on track. Reporting by Gram Slattery, Costas Pitas and SonaliPaul; Editing by Ron Popeski & SonaliPaul
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China's coal power plant approvals grow after 2024 decline
China approved 11.29 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power plants in the first three months of 2025, already exceeding the 10.34 GW approved in the first half of 2024, a new Greenpeace report showed on Thursday. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT Last year, Chinese approvals of new coal-fired power capacity fell 41.5% year-on-year to 62.24 GW, the first annual decline since 2021. The new data suggest approvals are tracking higher this year. While all the approved projects may not be built, the growing pipeline signals a continued reliance on coal. Reducing coal use to cut emissions is key to China's goal to hit peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. KEY QUOTE "The year 2025 marks a pivotal moment in the country's energy transition. There is already enough existing capacity to meet today's peak demand. Approving a new wave of large-scale coal projects risks creating overcapacity, stranded assets, and higher transition costs," said Gao Yuhe, Greenpeace's climate and energy project manager for East Asia. State planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the National Energy Administration did not immediately respond to faxed requests for comment. BY THE NUMBERS This year marks the last in China's 2021-2025 five-year plan, in which China has approved 289 GW in new coal capacity, around double the 145 GW approved for the 2016-2020 period. CONTEXT China has said it will start to phase down coal during the 2026-2030 five-year plan, but Beijing has not committed to any specific targets. WHAT'S NEXT Greenpeace called for more ambitious carbon emissions goals from China and a clear timeline for phasing out coal. It also said China's power sector emissions could peak this year as growth in wind and solar outpaces coal. (Reporting by Colleen Howe; Editing by Tom Hogue)
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Tullow Oil Lines Up Production Extension for Jubilee and TEN fields off Ghana
Tullow Oil and its partners have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Government of Ghana to extend the West Cape Three Points (WCTP) and Deep Water Tano (DWT) licenses to 2040, which cover the Jubilee and TEN fields off the West African country.The MoU has been signed between the Government of Ghana, Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, PetroSA, Ghana National Petroleum Company (GNPC) and Explorco.It includes approval to drill up to 20 additional wells in the Jubilee field, representing investment of up to $2 billion in Ghana over the life of the licenses.As a result of the extension the JV partnership expects to realize a material increase in gross 2P reserves.A number of principles are covered within the MOU that will help underpin the continued development of the Jubilee and TEN fields, including a commitment to work to increase in the supply of gas from the Jubilee and TEN fields to c.130 mmscf/d, a reduced gas price for Jubilee associated gas, and a guaranteed reimbursement mechanism for gas sales.Also, it provides for investment in Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) and the Petroleum Commission's capacity with a focus on the use of advanced technologyAll terms and conditions of the existing WCTP and DWT Petroleum Agreements remain in place and continue unchanged.The next steps, following this MOU, are the submission for approval of a Jubilee Plan of Development (PoD) Addendum, entering into new fully termed gas sales agreements (GSA), and the submission for parliamentary approval of the payment security mechanism and license extensions planned before the end of the third quarter of 2025."This Memorandum of Understanding between the Republic of Ghana and the DWT and WCTP partners marks a significant step forward in our nation's energy sector. Extending the licenses to 2040 demonstrates our commitment to fostering a stable and attractive investment climate.“This MOU will not only ensure the continued production of oil, supporting our economic growth, but also allow us to further develop our infrastructure and create more job opportunities for our citizens. We are dedicated to responsible resource management and look forward to a prosperous future fuelled by sustainable energy practices,” said John Abdulai Jinapor, Ghana's Minister for Energy and Green Transition."This is a valuable step forward for the Government of Ghana, Tullow and our JV partners, highlighting the collaborative and constructive relationship we all have in reaching our shared goal of building a better future for the people of Ghana, through responsible oil and gas development. "This extension and the fiscal stability of our contracts emphasizes the opportunity Ghana represents to deliver additional value through production and reserves additions, providing greater long-term optionality and materiality to these core assets,” added Richard Miller, Chief Financial Officer and Interim Chief Executive Officer of Tullow.
Andy Home: Rio Tinto is betting lithium will remain the battery metal of choice.
The lithium market is a difficult one to be in as the metal has been weighed down by an excess of supply.
The price of lithium hydroxide has fallen by 90% since its peak in 2022 and shows no signs of recovering. According to Wood Mackenzie, multiple producers now operate at negative or zero margins. Albemarle is the world's biggest producer of battery metal. They have cut costs and delayed new projects in order to survive the supply crisis.
Rio Tinto is not deterred. Rio Tinto, the global mining company, remains "consistent" in its belief that lithium will have a long-term future. The company has put its money where it speaks, acquiring U.S. producer Arcadium at a cost of $6.7 billion. It also partnered with Chilean state entities for two projects.
Rio believes that despite the current market dejection, demand will be sufficient to absorb current excesses and bring the market back into deficit by the end of the decade.
In a rapidly changing landscape, it's a good bet to say that lithium will continue to dominate the battery metal market.
Low Price, High Demand
Lithium prices are weak because of the oversupply on the market.
According to the International Energy Agency, global lithium production will grow by more than 35% per year in 2024. Chinese companies are not interested in cutting production and new mines continue to ramp up.
However, the supply tsunami masks the strength in lithium demand. According to the IEA, global consumption grew 30% last year. This is equivalent to the global market size in 2018.
Electric vehicles (EVs) are in good health. They are the largest users of lithium-ion battery technology. According to Rho Motion, the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 25 percent last year and by 29 percent in the first three months of this year. The use of lithium in energy storage systems has increased even more as the global power system pivots towards cleaner, but intermittent energy sources like solar and wind.
Rio Tinto expects the demand to increase at a rate of 10% or more annually through 2040.
DOMINANT METAL
This scenario is primarily threatened by a change in battery chemistry, as manufacturers strive to make batteries that are cheaper and more efficient.
The use of more expensive metals in batteries, such as nickel and cobalt, has declined dramatically. However, lithium remains the most dominant element.
Adamas Intelligence reports that the amount of nickel and copper deployed in new energy cars in March was only up by 12% and 2% respectively year-on-year. The deployment of lithium was up 30%, which is the same as overall EV growth.
But the battle for battery materials is not over. The Chinese company CATL is leading the way in developing sodium-ion battery technology. The latest iteration, Naxtra, will almost match in efficiency the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that are displacing nickel-manganese-cobalt (NCM) chemistries.
Robin Zeng, the billionaire founder of CATL, believes that sodium-ion battery could replace up to 50% of the LFP market.
The IEA, however, is less certain, stating that the sodium-ion battery is most competitive when lithium prices are high, which is not what we have at present.
Lithium’s low cost may be the best way to fight off competition from other materials.
The battery price is also falling, resulting in new energy vehicles being cheaper.
MARKET ACCELERATOR
According to the IEA, battery pack prices have fallen by 20 percent to a new record low of $115 kilowatt hours in 2024. This is the biggest annual decline since 2017.
Prices across the spectrum of battery metals have soared to record levels, resulting in a drop in the share of cathode materials in battery pack prices from 20% in 2023 to just 10% in 2024.
LFP batteries are 30% cheaper in China than NCM batteries, which are popular on Western markets. European automakers have taken notice. Volkswagen has adopted LFP technology to create a 20,000 euro entry-level electric vehicle for the European market.
The price of electric vehicles has been a major barrier to consumers switching, but that gap is closing.
Market forces can be a powerful counterbalance to tariffs, and the fact that President Donald Trump has scrapped his predecessor's green agenda.
SAFE BET
The metal crown of lithium's battery looks secure for the time being.
The impact of the global EV Revolution and the growing demand for grid-storage solutions will mitigate the impact of sodium-ion battery market share.
The IEA also points out that despite interest in new chemistries the main driver for battery innovation is still the conventional chemistries based upon lithium. Both NCM and LFP technology are constantly improving.
The demand for lithium is growing at a phenomenal rate and all indications are that it will continue in the coming years.
How long it takes for the current surge in supply to translate into a deficit on the market and higher prices depends on how long this current surge continues.
Do not hold your breath. It may take some time.
These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
(source: Reuters)