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Focus on tighter supply in the near future as copper prices remain steady before US-China trade negotiations

The price of copper was stable on Friday, ahead of the U.S.-China Trade Talks. The market's focus on tighter supply near-term is reflected by the premium that nearby contracts have over those further away, which has reached a 2-1/2-year-high.

In official open-outcry trade, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), remained unchanged at $9 432 per metric.

As representatives prepared for the weekend's talks, U.S. president Donald Trump said that tariffs of 80% on Chinese goods "seemed right". This is as representatives prepare to stop a trade conflict between two of the largest economies in the world which threatens to harm global metals demand.

The trade spat, and an investigation in Washington into whether or not to impose new tariffs on copper imports has reduced the availability of the metal on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the LME by attracting it more into COMEX owned warehouses. .

Natalie Scott-Gray is a senior metals analyst with StoneX. She said: "The tightening of copper fundamentals can be seen in the widening of backwardations on near-month contracts for LME and SHFE."

She added that this tightening is only temporary and won't offset the larger implications of an ongoing U.S.-China Trade War.

Copper inventories in SHFE monitored warehouses increased as outflows from the U.S. coincided seasonal demand in China. In recent weeks, the number of people who have died has fallen faster than expected.

The SHFE copper contract for June is now worth more than the SHFE copper contract for October, despite the fact that these stocks have fallen by 9.6% in the past week. They are also down 70% from the end of February.

The spread between the LME cash price and the three-month contract of copper on the LME The last time it was at a premium, $49 per ton, this was the highest price since November 2022. The price has risen from a discount in early April of $63 as the stocks at LME registered warehouses continue to be depleted.

Yangshan copper premium - a measure of robust import demand for metals in China's top metals consumer - The price of a ton is now $102, the highest level since December 2023, compared with $35 at the end of February.

Imports of copper concentrate from China reached a new record in April due to an increase in domestic copper smelting capacities. Meanwhile, imports of unwrought copper were stable despite high shipments into the U.S.

LME aluminium was unchanged at $2,412 per ton. Zinc rose 1% to 2,645, lead increased 1.7% to 1,978, nickel was up by 0.5% to $15.615, and tin was down 0.7% to $30,650. Ashitha Shivaprasad reported from Bengaluru, and Polina Devlatt in London. Vijay Kishore edited the story; David Evans was responsible for editing.

(source: Reuters)