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The Russian rouble has weakened after Trump's Russia remarks
The Russian rouble fell against the U.S. Dollar on Monday, after U.S. president Donald Trump declared that he was "pissed" with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He also threatened to impose tariffs on buyers of Russian crude oil. The rouble had fallen 0.7% to 85.50 USD on the OTC market by 0920 GMT. The Russian currency has gained about 25% this year against the US dollar, mainly due to expectations that geopolitical tensions will ease. Trump said to NBC News that he had been very angry when Putin criticized the leadership of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. His comments show his frustration over the lack of progress on a ceasefire. Denis Popov, a PSB bank representative, said: "The news background, at least, has stopped the formation of optimism in the market which limits the demand for rouble denominated assets." Exporting companies also stopped buying roubles to pay their corporate taxes, as they had done last week. Popov said that "after the exhaustion by fundamental factors which created a slight excess of foreign currency in the last week there is the risk that the value may move to a somewhat weaker level." The rouble fell 0.2% on the Moscow Stock Exchange against the Chinese Yuan, which is the most commonly traded foreign currency in Russia. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones.)
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Copper tariffs at two-week low, but China data support
Copper prices fell on Monday, their lowest in over two weeks. Worries about new U.S. Tariffs are due this week cushioned the losses by strong factory data coming from China's top metals consumer. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.7% at 9730.50 per metric tonne by 1000 GMT to its lowest level since March 13. The stock market and other financial markets were sent into a tailspin after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he would introduce reciprocal tariffs to all countries this week. Data released on Monday revealed that China's manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest rate in an entire year in March. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank, Copenhagen. He said that "the Chinese data keeps the market from aggressively reversing some of its recent strong gains. We're still holding relatively high levels." LME copper is up 11% this year, while the U.S. Comex has risen by 27%. Hansen said that traders have been buying up copper in anticipation of tariffs expected on the metal. However, these tariffs will be implemented within the next few weeks, so there is not much time left to complete the trades. U.S. Comex Copper Futures fell 0.7% to $5.12 a lb. This brings the premium of Comex to LME up to $1,542 a tonne. Hansen stated, "I believe that the arbitrage period has closed or is about to close, which brings the risk of the Comex contract suddenly seeing a significant additional weakness." The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a 0.4% increase in tin, to 282,350 Yuan ($38,938.92), due to concerns about supply disruptions following an earthquake that occurred last Friday in Myanmar, which is rich in tin. Tin prices on the LME fell 1.6%, to $35,815 per ton. Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell by 0.1% to 2,544 per ton. Zinc also dropped 0.9% to 2,830.50; lead fell by 0.3% to $2,000 and nickel dropped 2.7% to $16,945. $1 = 7.2511 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri; Additional reporting by Violet Li in Shanghai)
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Dutch consider new subsidies for offshore Wind as bidders opt-out
The Dutch government wants to introduce subsidies into its offshore wind farm tenders, because bidders have withdrawn from the current "zero-subsidy" model. Since 2017, the Netherlands has been able to attract builders to its offshore wind farms, without subsidizing electricity prices. However, interest has decreased due to increasing construction costs and uncertain power prices. The Dutch Climate Ministry said that interest in the upcoming auction for three sites on the North Sea was "very low". Eneco, Orsted and other energy firms have already announced that they will not participate in the September tender because they do not see a viable business case for them without subsidies. Pieter ten Bruggencate, the ministry's spokesperson, said that the absence of bidders was a "real difference" from the previous three years. We are constantly looking for new ways to provide bidders with more comfort and security. He said that any changes to the tender for the three 1-gigawatt sites would be relatively minor, without providing further details. The government will also look at "contracts of difference" in the long term. These contracts offer companies a subsidy when the electricity price is low, while the government gains when the prices are high. Ten Bruggencate suggested that other forms of price guarantee could be considered. Sophie Hermans, the climate minister, is expected to release detailed plans in mid-April. The Netherlands pushed back their plans last year to increase capacity by 4.7 GW instead of 21 GW, citing cost, supply-chain difficulties, and "challenges with timely decision making". (Reporting and editing by Bart Meijer)
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Sources say that China's smelter groups has agreed not to provide guidance on Q2 copper TC/RCs.
Sources said that the top Chinese copper smelters, who met on Monday, decided to not set guidance for second quarter copper concentrate treatment and refining costs (TC/RCs), as they are struggling with an acute lack of concentrate. Sources at the China Smelters Purchase Team in Shanghai said that, due to the scramble for stocks, spot TC/RC price has been negative since December. This has resulted in a benchmark so disconnected, it is now meaningless. A second source who spoke under condition of anonymity said that the CSPT had never given negative price guidance. A third source said that the tightness in copper concentrate supplies could last through this year, and possibly next year due to smelters expanding. The TC/RCs are an important source of revenue for the smelters. They also serve as a gauge for the availability of copper concentrates that are used to produce refined copper. If the TC/RC is negative, the smelter must pay the miners or traders for converting concentrate into refined metal. On March 28, the Shanghai Metals Market Copper Concentrates TC/RC Index was -$24.14 a metric ton, and -2.41cents a pound. A second and fourth source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that planned maintenance for the second quarter made it less important to give guidance because they wouldn't be buying as much spot cargo. Many copper smelters in China, the top consumer of the metal, have begun maintenance on their equipment and are opting to close down the plants during the traditional peak period for demand, March, to reduce losses due to the shortage. The first quarter guidance was $25 per tonne and 2.5 cents a pound. Reporting by Violet Li in Beijing, Amy Lv, and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Jamie Freed and Sherry Jacob Phillips, Rashmi aich, and David Evans
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Andy Home: Crisis in Europe is a hindrance to future metals strategies for Europe
The European Commission identified 47 strategic project which it hopes will kickstart the critical minerals sector in the region and reduce its dependency on imports from China, especially. Even as European policymakers strive to create a future industrial base for the region, they face a crisis within its existing metals industry. The long-term decline in European steel and aluminum production has been accelerated by Chinese overcapacity, and high energy costs. However, the latest threat comes from the United States. The tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, in particular the higher tariff on aluminum imports, could lead to a metal flood into Europe. Europe's response will be equally protectionist and lead to further fracturing in global trade patterns. BUILDING FOR FUTURE Europe's strategic project qualify for fast-track progress through the permitting phase - maximum 27 months in case of mine projects, and 15 months in case of processing projects. They also have access to both European and national funding. List is heavily geared towards battery inputs like lithium, cobalt and nickel, but includes other elements as well, such as germanium, gallium and tungsten. The list includes 14 of the 17 metals listed on the EU’s strategic metals. The projects in 13 states span the entire supply chain, from mining and processing to recycling to materials substitution. The EU should be able to meet its domestic production benchmarks of cobalt, lithium and nickel by 2030 and make "substantial" progress with other battery materials like manganese, graphite, and manganese. METLEN’s project in Greece, which covers the needs of the region by 2028, will be able to meet the current Chinese export restrictions on gallium. More is to come. The European Commission has received 46 requests for projects outside the EU. The European Commission said that a decision regarding the selection of these projects would be made at a future stage. CURRENT CRISIS The European ambitions to develop new energy metals are in stark contrast with the problems that Europe's traditional metals sector faces. The EU's steel production has fallen from 160 million tons in 2017 down to 126 millions in 2023. The Commission has stated that the current steel capacity utilization of around 65% was unsustainable. Around half of the remaining capacity has been idled in the region since 2021. In its "Action Plan", the Commission identifies that high power costs are a major problem for their industrial metals base. The power prices soared in 2022 following Russia's invasion in Ukraine. Although they have since dropped, they are still higher than their historical levels and far above those in the United States. There are a number of proposed solutions, from improving the efficiency of the network to facilitating longer-term contracts for power supply. The short-term goal is to "use all of the flexibility (of the state aid rules) in order to reduce costs for energy intensive industries." Tariff Turbulence Metal diverted from America washing up in Europe has prompted a focus on ways to stop further contractions in Europe's nonferrous and steel metals sector. According to the Executive Vice-President of the European Commission Stephane Sejourne, tighter steel import quotas may come as early as next month. The Commission is considering a "melted and poured rule" that would allow it to take action directly against the original metal producer, rather than the third-party converter. The Commission is preparing to implement some kind of safeguard measure in order to prepare for the plans for import restrictions. Many struggling operators are in a race against the clock. Paul Voss has called for "immediate and targeted interventions to stabilize the sector immediately." One of these interventions would be to stop the flow of recyclable material out of Europe. SCRAP WARS The U.S. 25% tariff on aluminum imports has been described as "without exemptions or exceptions", but it does not apply to scrap. The EU was already on course to export 1.3 million tonnes of aluminium scrap last year. This figure will likely rise as more scrap material is sent to the United States where it can be remelted into aluminum products, and the processors are able to pocket the premium. The threat of U.S. tariffs on copper is already causing European copper recycling companies to worry that more units are being sent to the United States, along with refined metal. The Commission promises to propose appropriate trade measures by the third quarter this year to ensure that more scrap remains in the EU. This will include reciprocal actions against both countries that impose metals tariffs as well as those who currently block the export of scrap. Geopolitics have not affected global scrap trading much, but this is about to change. SENSE OF URGENCY When it comes to critical metals, the European Union is catching up with the United States. The 27-member bloc does not have the same presidential powers as the Joe Biden or Trump administrations. The combination of metals action plans and strategic projects shows that the European Commission is aware of the importance of building for the future while protecting what they already have. As both corporations and lobby groups are quick to note, words must be followed by actions. To quote Voss, European Aluminium: "Strategy will not keep our operation running." These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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Oil markets are waiting to see if Trump’s Russian oil tariff threats is a bluff
The oil markets shrugged Monday off the threat of U.S. president Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Russian oil buyers as the shock factor of the White House's barrage of threats begins to wear out with jaded traders. Analysts and traders have questioned the seriousness of Trump's proposal. Warren Patterson, ING's director of commodities strategy, said that the U.S. government's announcements on tariffs and other sanctions have a tired feel. He said that the market would not overreact until he could provide more concrete information. The price of oil fell on Monday. Brent crude futures, the most active, were down 0.3% to $72.55 per barrel at 0710 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was also down by 0.4% to $69.09 per barrel. China and India are two of the largest buyers of Russian crude oil. Their consent would be essential to any secondary sanctions package that could seriously harm the exports of the world's number two oil exporter. India became the largest buyer of Russian crude oil after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This accounted for 35% of India’s total crude imports by 2024. India's oil minister said in February that the country's refiners will buy Russian oil from companies and ships that are not sanctioned. This effectively reduces the number of vessels and cargoes available. Reports indicate that Chinese state-owned oil companies are avoiding Russian oil. Sinopec, Zhenhua Oil and two others have stopped purchasing it, while the other two have reduced their volumes due to renewed U.S. sanction. On Monday morning, however, several Chinese traders stated that they were not fazed at all by the new threat. All three people who spoke to said that Trump's propensity for brinksmanship made them discount what he said. One trader said, "No price response yet but the market is still bullish due to all the uncertainty in supply." It's difficult to predict the impact as Trump always bluffs. In response to a query about tariffs, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China said that its cooperation with Russia was neither directed by nor affected in any way by third parties. Analysts said that if the tariffs were to become a serious threat to the markets, they would focus on how strict the policy was to be implemented and if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would increase production to compensate for any decrease in Russian exports. Patterson said that the secondary sanctions on Venezuelan oil imposed last week can be used as a template for assessing the impact of similar policies against Russia. Chinese buyers had already stopped purchases before the sanctions took effect on Wednesday. Analysts and traders expect that some sales will resume, as buyers come up with workarounds until Beijing issues a blanket prohibition.
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Iron ore falls due to China demand concerns
Iron ore futures fell on Monday due to concerns about demand prospects in China, the top consumer, after steelmakers reduced production, reducing ore's need. At 0700GMT, the most traded May iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 1.47% and closed Asia afternoon trading at 773 Yuan ($106.59). Beijing has announced that it will reduce steel production due to an overcapacity. Although there has not been an official announcement yet, some steelmakers reduced their production to prepare for the official announcement. This helped reduce demand for iron ore. Prices are also being impacted by concerns over the demand outlook, which have been intensified by a global trade conflict sparked by new U.S. Tariffs. Coking coal and coke, which are both used in steelmaking, also suffered losses of 3.42% and 2.19 %, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar fell 1.03%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.79%, and wire rod was down 0.79%. Stainless steel also lost 0.85%. Singapore Exchange will be closed for the public holiday on Monday. $1 = 7.2521 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Violet Li, Mei Mei Chu)
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Repsol will be protected by the government, says Spain's foreign minister
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares announced on Monday that his government will defend the interests the Spanish oil company Repsol, after sources close to U.S. president Donald Trump claimed his government would revoke licenses granted to oil firms operating in Venezuela. Albares told Tele 5 that he had spoken to the CEO of Repsol and they were discussing and analysing their decision. He said: "We shouldn't rush until we have all the information about this decision. We need to know what it means, how it will affect us and the room for dialogue that exists in order to resolve the issue. Maurel et Prom, a French oil company, and Eni, an Italian one from Italy said that they received notification from the U.S. Government on the weekend that their respective licenses for operating in Venezuela had been revoked. Former President Joe Biden’s administration granted individual companies authorizations in recent years to procure Venezuelan oil from refineries located anywhere between Spain and India, as an exception to the U.S. sanctions regime against the South American nation. Sources close to the decision said that Trump's administration informed the companies last week it would revoke the authorisations. Reliance Industries in India and U.S. Global Oil Terminals are also among the companies who have received comfort letters and licenses from Washington. Global Oil Terminals. Reporting by Inti landauro, Editing by Alison Williams, and Ros Russell
LME copper drops with a muted risk appetite before a bumpy next week
Copper prices in London fell on Friday due to a lack of risk appetite, ahead of the deadline next week for U.S. broad reciprocal tariffs. This was due to deteriorating global growth prospects and an easing of stimulus to get copper to the U.S. before possible tariffs.
The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.5% to $9,799 per metric tonne by 1110 GMT, after having hit $9,739 as its two-week-low.
Metal, which is used in construction and power, has risen 12% so far this quarter. It's on pace to have its best growth quarterly in four years. This has prompted some to book profits.
The uncertainty is high, as U.S. president Donald Trump intends to announce reciprocal duties aimed at countries that are responsible for most of the U.S. deficit in trade on April 2, and his 25% tariffs already announced on auto imports will take effect on the third day of April.
On Wednesday, the expectation that Washington would spend months investigating whether it should impose new tariffs on copper imports was pushed back to weeks. This reduced the time available for arbitrage between the LME and U.S. Comex futures.
After hitting a record-high of $1,615 this week, the premium of Comex prices over LME, a benchmark for global markets, has eased down to $1,469 per ton or 15%.
Alastair Muiro, senior metals strategist with broker Marex, said: "Early resolution of tariffs removes some geographical pressures which had manifested themselves in a LME terms structure bid."
Munro said that the market speculated that, if Washington announced the copper tariffs in the near future and did not grant a exemption to the metal on the water already, then this copper would be redirected into the LME registered warehouses.
Since mid-February, the on-warrant stocks of copper in the LME System, which are at their lowest level since May, have seen a steep fall as traders raced to swap and redirect the supplies to the U.S.
Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell by 0.1% to 2,561 dollars a tonne, while zinc, lead, and tin all gained. Tin rose 2.9% to 36,245 dollars, while nickel increased 1.1% to 16,420. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema; Polina Devitt)
(source: Reuters)