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As geopolitical risk increases, gold prices are on the verge of a record high.
Gold extended gains on Tuesday due to the demand for safe-haven assets after 'the U.S. The capture of Venezuelan president fuelled global tensions. Investors awaited U.S. employment data to gain insight into Federal Reserve interest rate policy. By 11:50 am, spot gold had risen 0.9% to $4,488.10 an ounce. After a near 3% increase in the previous session at 1650 GMT, prices are now closer to the record high price of $4,497.11 set on December 24. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery advanced by?1% to $4496. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst with Kitco Metals. He said that precious metals traders are more concerned about the future than bond and stock traders. The weekend U.S. attack on Venezuela fueled the demand for safe havens like gold and silver. After the U.S. had seized Maduro and taken him to New York at the weekend, the ousted Venezuelan president pleaded not guilt?on Monday? to narcotics? charges. The gold price, which is considered to be a safe haven by many, rose 64.4% in the last year. This was its best performance since 1979. The market participants will also be watching Friday's U.S. employment report. It is expected to show that 60,000 new jobs were added in December. This is a slight decrease from the 64,000 jobs added the previous month. According to LSEG, traders are pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that future rate changes need to be "finely-tuned" in order to balance both unemployment and inflation risks. Low interest rates tend to be beneficial for non-yielding metals. Morgan Stanley predicted that gold prices would surge to $4800 by the fourth quarter of this calendar year. They cited falling interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and central bank and funds purchases. Spot silver, whose all-time record high was $83.62 per ounce on December 29, gained 5.3% to $80.57. Silver's annual gain was 147% in 2025. This was due to a rise in industrial demand and investor interest. Palladium was 6.3% higher, at $1,815 an ounce. Spot platinum rose 6.5% to $2,417.70. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier, Vijay Kishore and Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
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Investors await economic data to see if stocks will rise and the dollar inch up.
Investors focused on the key data that will be released later this week to help gauge the outlook of the Federal Reserve policy. Prices of oil are falling. Investors were monitoring developments in . Maria Corina Machado has promised to return to her country as soon as possible, hailing U.S. president Donald Trump for overthrowing her opponent, Nicolas Maduro. She also declared that her movement was ready to win an election free of corruption. Trump's administration will meet with executives of oil companies this week to discuss increasing production in Venezuela. There's a lot of retooling needed to prepare these downstream producers for this crude oil. It is possible - and will probably be. Mark Malek is chief investment officer of Siebert Financial. He said that the biggest questions are how long it will take to invest, how much, and by whom. Stock Indices Climb Investors?bet Washington that it would allow U.S. companies access to Venezuelan oil reserves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by?173.14 or 0.35% to 49,150.32. The?S&P 500 rose by 27.19 or 0.39% to 6,929.24. And the Nasdaq Composite grew 110.14 or 0.47% to 23,505.95. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 5.53 points or 0.54% to 1,033.55. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.66%. Investors remain confident in economic prospects despite the escalating tensions on geopolitical fronts. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket?of currencies including the yen, the euro and others) rose by 0.18%, reaching 98.56. U.S. ECONOMIC DATA TO SET MARKET TONE Markets were buoyed by the expectation of interest rate reductions in the United States. Traders focused on the U.S. employment report due Friday. This will affect market expectations on monetary policy. According to LSEG, financial markets are pricing two Fed rate reductions this year. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased 2 basis points to 4.185% from 4.163% on Monday. U.S. crude dropped 0.27%, to $58.16 per barrel. Brent fell to $61.65 a barrel, down by 0.18%. Gold prices rose on Tuesday as demand for safe-haven assets boosted the price. Gold spot was up 0.9% to $4,486.12 an ounce at 11:54 am?ET (1654 GMT) after nearly 3% gains in the previous session. Nickel soared more than 9% and copper jumped to a new all-time peak, as concerns about supply fueled a rally early in the year for industrial metals.
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Why is Somaliland strategically important?
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, met with the President of Somaliland Tuesday. This was 10 days after Israel officially recognised the breakaway region of?the Horn of Africa' as a sovereign and independent state. Somalia has protested the move, saying that it is a threat to its sovereignty. A Somaliland source and regional diplomat have said other countries are preparing to follow their lead and'recognise Somaliland. U.S. U.S. Why is the location of Somaliland strategic? Somaliland is located at the intersection of the Indian Ocean, Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. Its Berbera Port provides access to the busiest shipping routes in the world. Analysts believe that Israel's recognition of Somaliland is a response to the Houthi militia's attacks on ships plying these routes. This could lead to an agreement for military cooperation between Israel and Somaliland. Somaliland has, however, denied that recognition would allow Israel to set up military bases or resettle?Palestinians in Gaza. What other countries could?recognise Somaliland? Ethiopia, Africa's most populous landlocked country, also has its eyes on Somaliland. In 2024, it announced a memorandum to lease a region around the Berbera Port in exchange for Addis Ababa recognizing the region's independent status. This deal provoked an angry response in Somalia and brought the Mogadishu Government closer to Egypt. Egypt has been at odds with Ethiopia over Addis Ababa’s construction of?a vast dam on the Nile River for years. Eritrea is another Ethiopian foe. Turkey maintains close ties to both Ethiopia and Somalia. It trains Somalia's security force and provides development assistance as a way of gaining a foothold along the main global shipping route. Ethiopia agreed to work with Somalia in December 2024 after talks were mediated by Turkey. However, it now appears to be preparing to recognize Somaliland. India has 'denied' talk on X about it also preparing for recognition of Somaliland. However, some analysts say that India should do this to counter Chinese influence in the Horn of Africa and specifically Djibouti as well as Kenya?and Tanzania. United Arab Emirates has carved out its own sphere in the region. The Abraham Accords, mediated by the United States, normalised Israel's relations in 2020. The Berbera Port is run by Dubai's state-owned company DP World. It also runs Berbera Airport and a Free Trade Zone between the airport and port. (Written by Silvia Aloisi and William Maclean)
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As geopolitical risk increases, gold prices are on the verge of a record high.
Gold extended its gains on Tuesday, boosted by demand for safe-haven assets after the?U.S. The capture of Venezuela's President sparked global tensions. Investors awaited U.S. Payroll data to gain insight into the Federal Reserve interest rate policy. By 09:55 am, spot gold had risen 0.9% to $4,488.10 an ounce. After a near 3% rise in the previous session (1455 GMT), prices are now a little closer to the December 24 record high of $4,497.11. U.S. Gold futures for?delivery in February rose 1.1% to $4498.70. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst with Kitco Metals. He said that precious metals traders are more concerned about the future than bond and stock traders. The weekend U.S. attack on Venezuela has also fueled the demand for gold, silver and other safe havens. After the U.S. took him to New York at the weekend, the ousted Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro plead not guilty Monday?to charges of narcotics. The gold price, which is considered to be a safe haven by many, rose 64.4% in the past year. This was its best performance since 1979. The market participants will also be looking at Friday's U.S. employment report. It is expected to show that 60,000 new jobs were added in December. This represents a slight decrease from the 64,000 added the month before. According to?LSEG, traders are pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that future rate changes need to be "fine-tuned"?to balance unemployment and inflation risks. Low interest rates tend to be beneficial for non-yielding metals. Morgan Stanley predicted that gold prices would?surge? to $4,800 in the fourth quarter this year. They cited falling 'interest rates', changes of leadership at the Federal Reserve, and central bank and funds purchases. Spot silver, which reached an all-time peak of $83.62 per ounce on December 29, increased 4.8% to $80.18. Silver's annual gain was 147% in 2025. This is due to a rise in industrial and investor demand. Palladium was 5.2% higher, at $1,795.68 an ounce. Spot platinum traded up 5.2% to $2,388.50. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier in Bengaluru, Anmol Choubey)
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Nickel surges after new mine disruptions and copper reaches record highs
The price of copper soared on Tuesday, as concerns about supply fueled a rally in the early part of the year. Nickel also reached a 15-month high above $18,000 per metric ton due to?Indonesia’s mine production curbs. In official open-outcry trading on the?London Metal Exchange, benchmark three-month copper was up 1.8% to $13,225 per ton. It had earlier jumped by as much as a whopping 3.1% to $13,387.50. Red metal prices have already increased by 6.6% since 2026. On Monday, they crossed $13,000, after a 42.2% increase last year. Ewa Mannthey, ING analyst, said that "Copper's?"move above $13,000" is driven by a growing discrepancy between a structurally tight supply of copper and a accelerating demand for it from?electrification projects and data centres. "Years underinvestment and mine disruptions continue to leave the market with little cushion." A strike at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde gold and copper mine in northern Chile?has re-invigorated supply concerns. Meanwhile, Chinese copper producer Tongling Nonferrous reported a delay to the?launch of its Ecuadorian mine's second phase. LME Copper Stocks Inventory levels on the Comex exchange have dropped to their lowest level since November 17. The price of copper is expected to rise due to the possibility of a U.S. tariff on the metal, resulting in a shortage of supplies outside the United States. Nickel jumped 6.1% to $18,045 per ton. This is the highest price since October 7, 2024, due to?Indonesia’s plans to reduce output. Miners can refer to the previously approved quotas for 2026 until March 31, while new quotas will be reviewed. Manthey stated that "Indonesia’s tightening of its grip on production, via slower...approvals and planned quota reductions in 2026, has proven to be?highly efficient at raising prices in the short-term." "But with an expected surplus of a significant amount in 2026, the rally is unlikely to continue unless either supply curbs are deepened or demand improves meaningfully." Aluminium increased by 0.8%, reaching $3,111 per ton. Zinc was up 1.5%, at $3,241.50, after hitting its highest level since October 2024. Lead climbed 1.2%, to $2,048. The price of tin rose by 4.6%, to $44,400. It had previously risen as high as 7.4% and reached its highest level since march 2022. (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman, Joe Bavier and Lewis Jackson; Additional reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson and Dylan Duan)
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Venezuelan international bonds continue rallying after Maduro's capture
Venezuela's sovereign international bonds gained?more than 2 cents Tuesday, continuing a rally that began in the previous session. This was fuelled by the optimism of investors following the capture by the U.S. over the weekend of President Nicolas Maduro. Tradeweb data shows that the defaulted 2034 notes accounted for some of the largest gains. They added 2.5 cents to the bid price at 43.01 cents per dollar. Some bonds rose close to 10 cents on Monday. Petroleos de Venezuela bonds also rose in value, with the 2031 bond up by 2 cents and now bid at 42.60cents. Several of the 'bonds are trading at their highest level since Donald?Trump began his first term in January 2017. This marked the beginning of a sharp increase of U.S. sanction regime against Caracas, which saw Venezuela go into sovereign default. Since Trump began his second term, in January 2025, many bonds have nearly tripled in price. Fuelled by Hope For a regime change in Venezuela that would pave the way for a future debt restructuring. Jared Lou, portfolio director at William Blair Investment Management said: "We believe the outlook for debt restructuring could shift significantly, as expectations have improved for the ultimate?recovery of Venezuelan debt." Venezuelan bond values could rise if a credible, structured political transition takes place. This would allow U.S. oil companies to resume operations and enable sovereign debt restructuring. (Reporting and editing by Karin Strohecker; Andrew Heavens, Libby George)
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European stocks are rising, while the dollar is stable. Traders remain optimistic
The European stock markets were up on Tuesday. U.S. stocks?futures also pointed to more gains as traders focused on the key data that will be released later in the week. They showed little reaction?to U.S. President Nicolas Maduro's capture by American forces. The STOXX 600 in Europe closed at a record high on Monday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time record. This was aided by gains made by U.S. financials and oil companies. Tuesday's Asian trading was characterized by a risk-on attitude, while European stocks opened higher. The United States took the Venezuelan president to New York over the weekend and seized him. On Monday, Nicolas Maduro, who was ousted from power in Venezuela, pleaded no contest to charges of narcotics. The markets remained positive Tuesday. At?1217 GMT the STOXX600 was up about 0.2% for the day, after having reached a new high earlier in session. The MSCI World Equity Index rose 0.3% while London's FTSE 100 gained 0.7%. This was largely due to gains in oil and defense stocks. It doesn't seem to be rattling markets in any significant way... Fiona Cincotta is a senior market analyst at City Index. She said that the market does not price in an increase in?risk or a ripple impact of Trump possibly entering other South American nations. S&P futures were unchanged, while Nasdaq was?up by 0.2%. Investors bet that Washington would allow U.S. companies access to Venezuelan oil reserves. The raid on Venezuela boosted the stock of big U.S. Oil Companies on Monday. Reports citing a source familiar with the situation said that U.S. president Donald Trump will meet executives of U.S. companies to discuss increasing Venezuelan oil production later this week. Analysts said that it is too early to determine the impact of Venezuela's oil production. Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday. Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $62.07 per barrel. UBS analysts stated in a note that Venezuela's energy infrastructure is in serious disrepair. Any meaningful production recovery will take at least several years. Maria Corina Machado, Venezuela's principal opposition leader, has promised to return as soon as possible and declared her movement prepared to win an election free of charge. Trump has not shown much support for Machado. U.S. ECONOMIC DATA WILL SET THE MARKET TANE The U.S. Dollar was stable, and the dollar index was flat at 98.392. The dollar index was flat at 98.392, after having surged up to a four week high the previous session. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1710. Markets were buoyed by the expectation of interest rate reductions in the United States. The market was focused on the U.S. employment report due Friday. This will affect the monetary policy expectations of the market. According to LSEG, financial markets are pricing two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Neel Kazhkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, warned in an interview with CNBC on Monday that the unemployment rate could "pop". However, he said the trend for inflation was slowing. UBS analysts stated that "Kashkari's neutrality may slow down rate cut expectations but we believe continued labor-market weakness and soft macroeconomic data will keep FOMC on course for another rate reduction this quarter, and continue downward pressure on the U.S. Dollar." The yields on ten-year German government bonds fell to 2.8503%, while the yield on euro zone government bonds dropped. Spot gold was trading at around $4,464. Copper reached a new high. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson and Aidan Lewis; Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft)
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Morgan Stanley predicts that gold will reach $4,800 in the fourth quarter of 2026
Morgan Stanley predicted gold would reach $4,800 an ounce in the fourth quarter, surpassing last year's records. They cited falling interest rates, the change of leadership at the Federal Reserve and central bank and fund purchases. Morgan Stanley also stated in a note dated January 5 that the events of Venezuela over the weekend would likely attract buyers who are looking for a safe place to store their money. However, it did not mention this as one reason why its forecast was $4,800/oz. Bullion reached a record-high of $4,499.71/oz in December and ended 2025 at a gain 64%. This was its best performance for the year since 1979. SAFE HAVENS IN TIMES of UPHEAVOR Traders see gold as a store of 'value in times of economic and political turmoil. It also performs well when interest rates are low, because its non-yielding properties?are less of a financial disadvantage. The bank stated that the peak silver deficit would be in 2025. It also added that China's export licence requirements which came into effect at the beginning of this year have increased the "upside risks for silver". Silver's annual gains in 2025 were the highest ever, soaring 147% on the back of a growing industrial and investor appetite, and a structural deficit. The bank stated that it preferred aluminum and copper in the base metals sector, as both are facing supply issues and increased demand. The note stated that "Aluminium supplies are constrained everywhere but Indonesia while the increasing?Midwest premium suggests some U.S. purchasing may be returning." The report also stated that copper supply disruptions in 2025 would continue into 2026, despite the fact that U.S. imports of copper have increased. The London Metal Exchange's benchmark 3-month copper reached a high of $13,387.50 Tuesday. The bank also highlighted the strength of?nickel, which is driven primarily by the risk of supply disruption in Indonesia. However, it noted that much of this can be priced into the market. Nickel rose 5.8% on Tuesday to $17.980 per ton, its highest level since October 8, 2024. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis)
New-look Polymetal aims to double gold output with Central Asia M&A
Gold producer Polymetal International prepares to double output by 2029 through acquisitions in Central Asia and will halt dividends while pursuing that goal, it stated on Tuesday in a strategy shift because the sale of its Russian properties.
Polymetal's Russian company came under U.S. sanctions in 2023 after Moscow sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022. The group offered its Russian assets, which represented about 70% of output and more than 50% of core earnings, for about $3.7. billion this year.
We will need a hell of a great deal of capital to achieve our. vision, and at the exact same time we will need to retire a. substantial quantity of debt which is presently sitting on our. balance sheet, CEO Vitaly Nesis stated.
The company may also seek to get in brand-new markets in Saudi. Arabia and Oman. CFO Maxim Nazimok informed there were 2. or three M&A handle the pipeline in Kazakhstan and. neighbouring jurisdictions.
Seeking to distance itself from its Russian ties, Polymetal. International revealed last month it was rebranding to. Solidcore Resources, having actually experienced know-your-client concerns. with banks, information service providers and suppliers regardless of not being. based on sanctions.
Polymetal said its goal to produce 1 million ounces of gold. comparable by 2029 would require considerable additional. financial investment in expedition, M&A and advancement of new possessions.
It prepares to invest $800 million into its Ertis POX project. in Kazakhstan, with production set to begin in the very first half of. 2028. Only then will the company be able to resume dividend. payments.
Nesis said constructing the POX task was the only method to put. the business on a strong footing and completely sever ties with Russia. The company has U.S. approval to preserve a tolling arrangement. with a POX facility in Russia.
We will need to go through the discomfort of not paying a. dividend, to reestablish the business into a state that makes it. a bona-fide, investable mining company, Nesis stated. I think. there is no other method.
General capital investment of $1.23 billion is planned from. 2025-29, leaving out M&A, the business stated. Constant annual. production levels are predicted for that period at existing. jobs, ranging from 468,000 to 520,000 ounces of gold. equivalent.
LISTING QUANDARIES
Presently 11% of the group's exceptional share capital. remains obstructed within Russia's National Settlement Depository. ( NSD), which is under sanctions, and with other Russian. custodians.
Nazimok required investors to wake up to the problem. and begin taking part in an offer to exchange obstructed. Moscow-listed shares for those in Astana, in spite of low liquidity. in Kazakhstan.
The group is thinking about how to ultimately eliminate. the NSD as an issue, Nazimok stated. The resumption of. dividends, to a specific level, is also dependent on dealing with. that problem.
Nesis said the business was not yet ready to pursue a. relisting in London, either in terms of financier appeal or. potential compliance issues.
The reasonable timeline is most likely 2026 at the earliest,. when we will have the ability to show that development at the POX. project is sufficient to satisfy our goal of all independence from. Russia by 2028..
(source: Reuters)