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Australia warns of risk to iron ore prices from China's state buyer

Australia warns of risk to iron ore prices from China's state buyer
Australia warns of risk to iron ore prices from China's state buyer

A report released by the Australian government on Friday stated that efforts made by China's iron ore buyer, which is backed by its state, to reduce?costs of Chinese steel mills could push prices down in the medium-term. This was a rare admission that such activities may affect earnings.

Iron ore is Australia's largest export. It contributes significantly to the government's revenue. China purchases roughly three quarters of all seaborne trade.

In its Resources and Energy Quarterly Report, the Department of Industry, Science and Resources said that state-backed China Mineral Resources Group has increased activity 'in the iron ore markets this year, which includes a high-profile battle with BHP.

The CMRG has tried to influence changes in 'pricing mechanisms' among miners with the goal of reducing costs for Chinese Steel Mills. The department stated that this could lead to a decrease in the benchmark price over the'medium-term.

This comment is one of the clearest acknowledgments by the government of the impact that CMRG could have on the steel industry. CMRG was created in 2022 in order to consolidate the buying power of steel mills and increase their leverage in negotiations with BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue.

CMRG asked certain domestic steel mills to not accept delivery of some portside iron ore from Fortescue. This was reported by the media on Wednesday. Fortescue refused to comment.

CMRG has not responded to a request for comment sent via email.

The government is closely monitoring the negotiations between CMRG and miners, as it fears that lower benchmark prices or changes in price arrangements could impact tax revenues and profit. Madeleine King, Minister of Resources, said that the government is keeping a "close eye" on iron ore developments this year because it's important to the federal budget and economy.

Iron ore prices were a cautionary note in a report that was otherwise positive, and which upgraded the outlook for commodity export earnings.

After the conflict in the Middle East, the government increased its forecast of the value for exports during the fiscal year that began on July 1 by 11% over its December outlook. The new figure is A$416 ($286 Billion)

Due to the volatility of the market, it did not publish a quarterly report for March.

In addition, the government has raised its "forecast" prices for a number of commodities in comparison to previous reports.

Now, it expects to see iron ore priced at $91 per metric tonne, instead of $85, and gold?at $4.792 an ounce, rather than $4.049.

Last week, spot gold traded at $4 063 and iron ore last traded at $98.5.

The government also stated that it expected LNG prices to be higher than $11.3 per million British Thermal Units, and then decline to about $11 in 2028.

Asia Spot LNG Last priced at $15.35

(source: Reuters)