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The ROI-Iron Ore Industry Sees A Bright Future, But Green Steel Fades: Russell

The ROI-Iron Ore Industry Sees A Bright Future, But Green Steel Fades: Russell
The ROI-Iron Ore Industry Sees A Bright Future, But Green Steel Fades: Russell

Metals such as lithium, copper and rare earth elements, which are associated with the energy transition, have been the most consistently bullish commodities in recent years.

Iron ore miners want to add their product?to the list.

Steel demand in South and Southeast Asia is expected to remain robust and will more than offset the decline in production in China and Western Europe.

This was the consensus opinion at this week's industry meeting in Singapore.

The optimism of iron ore miners was not shared by those who advocated decarbonising the steel industry. They realised that green steel would be extremely expensive and shifted away from it.

The governments lack the will and ability to regulate, legislate and encourage a shift from using coal to make steel to renewable energy sources.

A LOOMING SUPPLY GLOBAL GAP

Iron ore prices are soaring due to the expectation that India's steel production will rise from 168 million metric tonnes a year at present to 400 million metric tonnes by 2035.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, India will be a net exporter in 2025, with 28.62 millions tons of exports against 13.87 million tonnes of imports.

India would have to import more steel if it doubles its production of steel in the next ten years. Its domestic industry is unable to produce enough ore that has a high iron content for economic viability.

It is also hoped that Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam and Thailand, which are industrialising, will increase their steel production capacity. These countries will be heavily dependent on iron ore imported from other countries.

Bold Baatar, Rio Tinto's Chief Commercial Officer, told the Singapore Iron Ore and Steel Forum there was a supply gap of up to 650 million tonnes of iron ore by 2035.

This figure includes new mines, such as the 120-million-ton-per-year Simandou Project in Guinea that is currently in the process to start up.

Rio expects the rate of new mine development to be slower than the amount of tons lost as old mines are retired.

The fact that the majority of new steel capacity in Asia is being produced using the traditional blast-furnace-basic oxygen-furnace (BF-BOF method) is another factor which supports miners like Rio, the world's biggest producer of iron ore.

This method, which relies on metallurgical coke, is not only cost-effective but also highly pollution as it uses a proven technology.

The steel industry accounts for about 8 percent of the global carbon emissions. Decarbonisation is therefore vital if we are to achieve our climate goals of zero net emissions by 2050.

While steelmakers and miners are eager to decarbonise their operations, they are actually only aiming for the low-hanging fruits with plans to improve efficiencies and use high-grade iron ore.

GREEN SHOOTS FADE

To reduce emissions, it is necessary to switch from coal to hydrogen and use renewable electricity.

Green steel production has received very little investment.

Zhong Shaoliang (deputy secretary general of World Steel Association) told the Singapore Green Steel Forum on Wednesday that only 20 billion dollars have been invested to support green steel production.

The majority of the green steel produced in Europe will be 70.8 millions tons by 2030.

The planned green steel output represents less than 4%, given that the global steel production will be close to 2 billion tons per year by 2030.

There is currently no global standard of green steel. Carbon taxes, such as those in Europe's Carbon Border Adjustment mechanism are not widespread enough to encourage a significant shift towards green steel.

According to data from the World Steel Association, the current cost to?produce steel using the BFBOF method is $400 per ton.

The cost of a ton can be increased by between $500 to $850, depending on where the production takes place.

Only by regulating in favor of green steel can governments close the gap. They could do this by either taxing or subsidising production methods that are less carbon intensive.

There is little evidence that this is happening in Asia - the world's largest producer of steel, and engine of future growth.

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These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Jan Harvey).

(source: Reuters)