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Sources say that Mexico is considering stopping oil shipments from Cuba due to Trump's retaliation.
Three sources with knowledge of the discussions say that the Mexican government is considering whether it should continue sending oil to Cuba. There are growing concerns within the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum about the possibility that the United States could retaliate against Mexico for this policy. The policy is vital to the Communist-run Caribbean island. The U.S. blocked oil tankers from Venezuela in December, and President Nicolas Maduro was captured this month. This has halted Venezuelan oil deliveries to Cuba. Mexico is now the sole supplier of energy for the island which suffers from massive blackouts and energy shortages. Mexico's role as a major oil supplier to Cuba also puts 'the U.S.'s southern neighbor in Washington's crosshairs. In a post on Truth Social dated January 11, President Donald Trump said that Cuba was "ready to fall". Sheinbaum said publicly that Mexico would continue to ship oil to Cuba. He explained that the shipments are part of long-term contracts, and they are considered international aid. Senior Mexican government sources, however, said that the policy was being reviewed internally as Sheinbaum's Cabinet grows increasingly anxious about the possibility of Trump becoming upset by the oil shipments. Mexico is trying negotiate a revision of the USMCA North American Trade Pact while also convincing Washington that it is doing enough in combating drug cartels, and that U.S. Military action against these groups on Mexican soil is neither welcomed nor necessary. Sources requested anonymity in order to discuss a sensitive issue. Sources say that the Mexican government is still undecided about its final decision. They have said that a total halt, a reduced amount, or a full continuation are all options. The Mexican presidency said that the country has "always been in solidarity" with the Cuban people and?added, shipping oil to Cuba as well as a separate agreement for paying for the services provided by Cuban doctors are "sovereign decisions." The Cuban government has not responded to a comment request. White House official: "As President said, Cuba has failed on its own accord... There will be no more oil or money coming to Cuba from Venezuela and he strongly recommends Cuba make a deal before too late." CARTELS ATTACKED by LAND ATTACKS Trump has increased pressure on Mexico in recent weeks. He says that the cartels run the country and that a ground attack against them is imminent. Sheinbaum has stressed repeatedly that any unilateral action by the U.S. Sheinbaum has repeatedly stressed that any unilateral?U.S. One of the sources said: "There's a growing concern that the United States might take unilateral action against our territory." Two sources claim that during a telephone call with Sheinbaum last week, Trump asked about the crude and fuel shipments going to Cuba, and?the presence in Mexico of thousands of Cuban physicians. Sheinbaum replied that the shipments were "humanitarian assistance" and that doctors' deals "are in full compliance" to Mexican law, according to sources familiar with this call. The sources said that Trump did not ask Mexico directly to stop the oil deliveries. Three sources confirmed that officials within Sheinbaum’s government have also been growing increasingly concerned by the increased presence of U.S. Navy Drones in the Gulf of Mexico, since December. Local media reported that flight-tracking data showed at least three U.S. Northrop Grumman Triton MQ-4C drones had flown a dozen times over the Bay of Campeche. They followed the same route as tankers transporting Mexican fuel from Mexico to Cuba. The same reconnaissance aircraft was spotted in December off the Venezuelan coastline, just days before the U.S. attacked the South American nation. Sheinbaum led an offensive against the Sinaloa Cartel, and approved three mass transfers of drug kingpins in excess of 100 to?the United States. Sheinbaum, a senior U.S. official, has stated repeatedly that unilateral U.S. actions on Mexican soil represent a redline. Sheinbaum stated on Wednesday that "very little crude oil is exported to Cuba. But it's a form solidarity in times of hardship." Sheinbaum said that "that doesn't need to disappear". CUBA'S MEXICAN OIL FEEDLINE Trump's campaign of pressure against Cuba began during his first term, when he reversed many historic rapprochements orchestrated by the former Democratic President Barack Obama. It has increased ever since Trump returned to office one year ago. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a Cuban-American and has been the driving force behind Trump’s Venezuela policy. He, along with other U.S. officials, also believes that this could weaken Maduro’s Cuban allies. The constraints on Trump's Cuba policy are even more difficult to overcome, considering Havana's regional support and international recognition, the entrenched nature and power of Cuba's security forces and leadership, and its ability to endure decades under the U.S. embargo. The Caribbean's largest island relies heavily upon fuel imports to meet its electricity, gasoline and aviation fuel needs. U.S. economic sanctions and the deepening crisis in the economy have made it impossible for the Communist government to purchase enough fuel. Three sources within Sheinbaum’s government said that there is a strong belief in the Sheinbaum’s government that Washington’s strategy to cut off Cuba’s oil supply could lead the country into a humanitarian catastrophe, leading to mass migrations from Cuba to Mexico. Some government officials are pushing for the continuation of fuel supplies on the island, the sources said. It is unlikely that other oil companies will step up to fill the gap, considering the U.S. military presence and focus in the area. The U.S. seized vessels that were involved in Venezuelan oil trading, vessels that are part of the shadow fleet, which supplies crude from countries that have been sanctioned by the U.S., such as Iran and Russia. According to data reported by the Mexican state oil company Pemex, between January and September of last year, Mexico exported 17,200 barrels of crude oil per day and 2,000 bpd refined petroleum products worth $400 million to Cuba.
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Gold closes on $5,000 as silver reaches record high.
Gold and silver prices reached new records on Friday as investors piled into safe-haven investments amid geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Spot silver rose 5%, to $100.94 per ounce at 1848 GMT. Silver should continue to be supported by many of the forces that support gold investment demand, said Philip Newman. He is a director with Metals Focus. The London market is still experiencing low liquidity and ongoing tariff concerns. The price of white metal has risen by more than 200 percent in the last year. This is also due to ongoing challenges with refining the metal, and a persistent shortage on the market. Gold spot was 0.6% higher, at $4,964.81 per ounce. It had previously reached a record high of $4,988.17. U.S. Gold Futures for 'February Delivery' settled 1.4% higher, at $4979.70. Gold's role in providing a safe haven as well as diversification during a time of?highly unreliable economic and political conditions? makes it an essential part of strategic portfolios. "It's not just a perfect hurricane that will pass, but a sign of fundamentally shifting times," said Tai Wong. The demand for safe-haven assets has risen since the beginning of 2026 due to friction between the U.S., NATO, and Greenland over Greenland. Concerns about the Federal Reserve and the continued uncertainty surrounding tariffs are also contributing factors. Gold's increase has also been fueled by central bank purchases and a move away from dollars. Gold is often a preferred asset during periods of low rates. Gold reached significant milestones such as $3,000/oz in March and $4,000/oz in October last year, fuelled by U.S. rate cuts and conflict around the globe. Commerzbank stated in a report that it anticipates the U.S. Rate cuts will accelerate this year after the appointment of?a new Fed Chair, which should give gold prices another boost. Platinum reached a record-high of $2,771.10 per ounce, and was last up 4.4%, at $2,744.40. HSBC stated that this metal was attracting investor interest as a cheaper gold alternative. It also predicted a structural shortage in this market of 1.2 million ounces for this year. Palladium, on the other hand, rose by 4.1%, to $1,999.64.
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Speculative frenzy catapults silver above $100/oz
Silver prices soared to $100 per ounce Friday, continuing a 2025-like surge into the New Year. Retail investor and momentum-driven purchases added to the prolonged period of tightness on the physical markets for precious and industrial metals. Technical analysts, who use charts to predict the future movement of prices, said that silver's rapid gains were a sign of a significant correction. Silver is currently in a frenzy, and the geopolitical risks are a big part of what is driving it. Its lower price is helping silver to benefit, even right now. She added, "It seems that everyone wants to get involved, but there are also warnings about wealth in amber." When cracks appear, they can easily turn into chasms. "Stabilize yourself." Silver, which is used for jewellery, electronics, and solar panels as well as an investment, was last up 5.1% to $101 per troy-ounce on Friday. Price has risen by 40% since 2026, after a 147% increase in 2025. On Friday, gold reached a record high of $4.988 an ounce. BofA's Michael Widmer believes that the fundamentally justified price of silver is $60, with solar panel demand likely to have peaked by 2025. The overall industrial demand will also be under pressure from high prices. As of Friday, silver will cost 50 ounces to purchase one ounce gold, down from the April figure of 105 ounces. This is a ratio. Silver's performance over gold is now stretched. INVESTMENT DEMAND Silver's gain for 2025 is the highest annual growth since 1983. Market performance in 2025 will be influenced by a robust investment demand in all precious metals, and a prolonged period of low liquidity on the London benchmark silver market. This is due to fears about U.S. Tariffs, which have prompted massive flows into U.S. stocks. Analysts report that since October, there have been several waves of retail purchases through the purchase of small coins and bars as well as influxes into exchange traded funds with physical silver backing. Recycling accounts for almost 20% of the total silver supply, which is 1.0 billion ounces. The activity has been boosted by record prices. Metals Focus, a leading precious metals consultancy, said that inventories are not rebuilding as quickly due to a lack of high-grade refinery capacity. After five years of structural deficits, the availability of stocks on the market and the secondary supply has become increasingly important. Metals Focus estimates that these deficits, along with?outflows into the U.S., and inflows into the ETFs, saw the amount metal in London's commercial vaults which could be mobilised quickly in times of high demand dwindle to a record-low of 136,000,000 ounces at the end of September. By the end of 2025, the stocks would have recovered to almost 200 million ounces, helping to lower lease rates in London. However, they were still far below the roughly 360 million pounds available in London at the peak Reddit-driven rally early in 2021. What now? Analysts anticipate outflows of?U.S. Stocks will accelerate and increase liquidity on the traditional markets, as Washington did not impose any tariffs after announcing its results for the critical metals review mid-January. After peaking at 532 millions ounces on October 3, COMEX stocks decreased. The inventories of metals worth approximately $11 billion have dropped by 114 millions ounces. COMEX silver stocks need to continue to be sold at a rate of approximately 113 million ounces per year to reach the levels pre-Trump's election. David Wilson, senior commodities strategist at BNP Paribas, said that profit taking is more likely to occur sooner than later due to the frenzied nature and investor-driven rally seen since late November.
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Valero and Phillips 66 purchase Venezuelan oil as part of Washington’s deal with Caracas
Two sources confirmed that Valero had purchased a cargo from Venezuelan crude oil on Wednesday. This is one of the initial deals made by U.S. Gulf Coast refining companies as part of Washington’s agreement with Caracas for exports of up to 50,000,000 barrels. One source said that Phillips 66 had also bought a cargo. Sources said that both companies bought crude oil from Vitol. The crude was then traded to be delivered to the U.S. Gulf Coast for a discount between $8.50 and $9.50 per barrel compared to Brent crude. After President Nicolas Maduro was ousted in January, the U.S. Government awarded Vitol and Trafigura the first licenses to trade Venezuelan crude. The first deals for the U.S. are from trading houses who were just authorized to sell Venezuelan crude this month. Sources refused to identify themselves as the information about trade deals is confidential. Valero and Vitol didn't respond to requests for comment. The White House did not reply to a comment request either. Phillips 66 announced on Thursday that, while it doesn't comment on commercial activities, its Gulf Coast refining facilities are designed to process a variety of crude oil, including heavy. "Access to heavy crude represents a valuable opportunity for us." The company stated in an email that it optimizes its crude slate according to availability, economics and operational requirements. Sources claim that Vitol and Trafigura purchased the Venezuelan oil at a discount of $15 per barrel compared to Brent, the benchmark global oil. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the initial sales of Venezuelan crude oil worth $500 million were?negotiated at a $15 discount per barrel to Brent. Shipping sources say that the trading houses are responsible for the costs of shipping the crude oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast. These range between $2.5 to $3.5 per barrel, depending on the tanker size. This would allow them to make a profit of $2 to $4 per barrel on the Venezuelan oil that they resell. Venezuelan Merey heavy oil is being offered to the United States. Last week, refiners started at a discount between $6 and $7.50 a barrel to Brent. However, this was lowered due to a lack of interest. Vitol, Trafigura and others also made offers to Indian refiners for $8-8.50 below Brent per barrel. However, this also failed to elicit much interest. According to U.S. Government data, before sanctions were imposed on Venezuela in 2019, several large U.S. Gulf Coast refining plants bought and processed as much as 800,000 barrels of heavy oil per day. (Reporting from Georgina McCartney in Houston and Arathy Sommesekhar; additional reporting by Marianna Parra and Shariq Khan; editing by Christian Schmollinger and Edwina Gibbs)
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How the U.S. controls Iraqi oil revenues
Since 2003, the United States has effectively controlled Iraq's oil revenues, which gives Washington a powerful influence over Baghdad, and can have implications for regional dynamics that involve Iran. How does the U.S. control Iraqi oil revenue? The U.S. control of Iraq's oil revenue is primarily due to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's management of the oil income of Iraq. The U.S.-led 'Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA)' established the Development Fund for Iraq, which was housed at the New York Fed, after the 2003 invasion. The DFI's purpose was to collect Iraqi oil revenues and use those funds for the reconstruction and development of Iraq. The DFI was created to protect Iraqi oil revenue from lawsuits or claims related to Saddam Hussein. George W. Bush, then president, signed an executive directive that has been renewed every year since. This was the order which set up this arrangement. The DFI became a Central Bank of Iraq account at the New York Federal Reserve. This is still the case today. What is the leverage that this gives to the U.S.? Iraq's main source of revenue, oil, accounts for 90% of its budget. Washington has a significant influence over Iraq's political and economic stability. Baghdad eventually relented when Washington threatened to stop allowing Iraq to access New York Federal Reserve money. The Iraqi government has gained greater control over its finances since the U.S. invasion, but the relationship continues to show the U.S.'s influence on Iraqi economics, even as the country tries to assert its independence and sovereignty. Why has this arrangement lasted so long? Anonymous Iraqi officials said that the system was a key factor in stabilizing Iraq's finances and protecting state finances. The system provides international confidence in managing oil revenues, facilitates easy access to U.S. dollar needed for imports and trade, and protects revenue from external claims, financial shocks and claims, including lawsuits and claims by creditors, said the officials. They said that the arrangement supported exchange rate stability, underpinned confidence in Iraqi economics, and worked to strengthen and assert greater economic autonomy. The arrangement also allows the government a way to fight back against certain actors, such as Iran-allied groups who want less restrictions on dollar access. Last year, the U.S. imposed sanctions against Iraqi banks and individuals it accused of laundering money to Iran. What impact has this agreement had on Iraq? Due to the heavy restrictions placed on U.S. dollars entering Iraq, a parallel informal market developed, resulting in a spread between the official rate of exchange set by the central banks and the price on the blackmarket. This price difference is basically a premium for trading outside of the formal system. Since Donald Trump was re-elected for a second time, he has been pursuing a maximum pressure campaign against Iran. Iraq has often found itself caught in the middle of this as Tehran uses it as an economic lung. What is the status of Iraqi oil revenue management today? Iraqi oil revenue?remains under the custody of Federal Reserve Bank of New York. CBI has traditionally used dollar auctions - also known as foreign currency windows - as its main method of supplying dollars. Private banks and exchanges could bid every day to buy U.S. Dollars using Iraqi dinars. Iraq officially ended the auction system in 2025, after U.S. pressure. This was part of an overall crackdown against alleged dollar siphoning to sanctioned entities such as Iran. (Reporting and editing by Frank Jack Daniel; Yousef Saba is the reporter)
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Gold closes on $5,000 as silver reaches record high.
On 'Friday, silver prices surpassed $100 per ounce for first time in history. Gold also hit another record on its way to $5,000/oz. Investors piled into safe-haven investments amid geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Spot silver rose 4.5%, to $100.49 per ounce at 1649 GMT. Silver should benefit from the same factors that support gold investment demand, said Philip Newman. He is a director of Metals Focus. The London market is still experiencing low physical liquidity and ongoing tariff concerns. The metal's price has risen by more than 200% over the last year. This is also due to a persistent shortage of metal and ongoing challenges with refining the metal. "Traders have been pushing for the $100 milestone and achieved it; investors will watch to see if the price can continue through the end of the day or if there will be profit-taking by recent speculators," said Tai Wong an independent metals dealer. Gold spot was 0.8% higher, at $4,976.49 per?ounce. It had previously reached a record high of $4,988.17. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery increased by 1.3%, to $4978.60. Gold's role in providing a safe haven and diversifier during highly uncertain political and economic times makes it an essential part of strategic portfolios. Wong said that it is more than just a perfect storm which will not last. It is a sign of fundamentally shifting times. The demand for safe haven assets has risen since the beginning of 2026 due to friction between the U.S., NATO, and Greenland over Greenland. Gold's increase has also been attributed to central bank purchases and a general move away from the dollar. The Fed is expected hold interest rates steady at its meeting on January 27-28, but the markets are still expecting two more rate cuts in 2026's second half. Gold is a popular investment during low-interest rates because it doesn't yield any income. Gold reached significant milestones such as $3,000/oz in March last year and $4,000/oz in October. Platinum reached a record-high of $2,749.2 per?ounce, and was the last to rise 4%, at $2,735.00. HSBC stated that this metal was attracting investor interest as a cheaper gold alternative. It also predicted a structural shortage in this market of 1.2 million ounces for this year. Palladium prices, on the other hand, rose by 4.3%, to $2,002.22. Ashitha Shivaprasad, Kavya Baliaraman and Susan Fenton in Bengaluru contributed to the report.
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Senator: Congress must investigate TikTok Deal, criticizes lack of detail
Ed Markey, a Democratic Senator from Massachusetts, said that Congress should look into a deal made by ByteDance to establish a joint venture with a majority American ownership. This would allow the U.S. to secure its data. Markey said that the deal finalized on Friday left many questions unanswered. The White House has not provided any details on this agreement including whether TikTok algorithm is free from Chinese influence. Markey said that the lack of transparency "reeks". Congress has a duty to investigate the deal, demand transparency and ensure any arrangement protects national safety while keeping TikTok on line. Markey's criticism was not immediately addressed by the White House or TikTok. More than 200 millions Americans use TikTok. ByteDance stated that TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC will secure U.S. users' data, apps and algorithms using data privacy and cybersecurity. It revealed few details about the divestiture. After years of battles, the deal marks a "milestone" for the social media company. The fight began in August 2020 when President Donald Trump tried unsuccessfully to ban the app due to national security concerns. Trump chose not to enforce the law passed in April of 2024 that required ByteDance?to sell its U.S. Assets by January the following year or face a banning - a measure?upheld?by the Supreme Court. ByteDance owns 19.9% of the venture. The agreement states that American and international investors will hold 80.1%. TikTok USDS 'JV's three Managing Investors - Cloud Computing giant Oracle, Private Equity group Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi based Investment?firm MGX – will each hold 15%. The Chinese Embassy in Washington stated that its "position regarding the TikTok matter has been consistent and clear", but it did not say whether or not they had approved the deal. Trump said last year that the deal met the terms of the divestiture requirements set out in the 2024 law. The White House said in September that the venture would operate TikTok’s U.S. application. TikTok reported that investors in the venture include Dell Family Office – the investment firm founded by Michael Dell, the founder of Dell Technologies –?plus Vastmere, Alpha Wave Partners and Via Nova. (Reporting and editing by Franklin Paul, Alex Richardson, and David Shepardson from Washington)
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Gold closes on $5,000 as silver reaches record high.
The price of silver rose to $100 an ounce on Friday for the first ever time, and gold reached a new record on its way to $5,000/oz. Investors are flocking into safe haven assets due geopolitical unrest and expectations that U.S. rates will be cut. Spot silver rose 4.05% at $100.1 per ounce as of 1547 GMT. Metal prices have risen by more than 200 percent in the last year. This is also due to ongoing challenges with scaling up the refining of the metal, and a persistent shortage on the market. Silver should benefit from the same forces that support gold investment demand, said Philip Newman. He is a director of Metals Focus. The London market is still experiencing low liquidity and ongoing tariff concerns. This will provide additional support. Gold spot was 0.48% higher, at $4,959.98 an ounce. This is after hitting a record high of $4,967.03 in the morning. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery grew by 0.98% to $4,961.20. Gold's role in providing a safe haven as well as diversification during highly uncertain political and economic times makes it an essential part of strategic portfolios. "It's not just a perfect hurricane that won't last; it's an indication of fundamentally changing circumstances," said Tai Wong. Friction between the U.S. The tension between the?U.S. Gold's increase has also been attributed to central bank purchases and a move away from dollars. The?U.S. On the policy front, it is expected that the Fed will hold interest rates at its meeting on January 27-28, but the markets still expect two further rate reductions in the second half 2026. Gold is often a preferred asset during low-interest rate periods because it's a non-yielding investment. Spot platinum rose 4.21%, to $2.740.25 per ounce. In a recent note, HSBC stated that platinum was "attracting investor interest as a more affordable alternative to gold." "We expect the production/consumption deficit to widen to over 1.2 moz in 2026," the note added. Palladium meanwhile jumped 4.79%, to $2012.11. Ashitha Shivprasad, Kavya Baliaraman and Susan Fenton in Bengaluru contributed to the report.
Silver trading, from shares and coins to bars and stocks
Investors rushed into safe-haven assets amid the geopolitical turmoil, and also on expectations of U.S. rate cuts.
Metal prices rose 147% in 2017 due to a combination of?strong demand for investment, challenges with scaling up the refining process, and a persistent shortage on the market.
How does silver trade work?
Over the Counter
London is the largest marketplace for silver and gold, and it's where brokers and banks handle all of the buy and sell orders.
The trading is done over the counter between financial institutions. An investor must be in a relationship to gain access to this market.
Bars of gold bullion are stored in vaults at large banks like HSBC and JPMorgan. London vaults were holding 27,818 tons of silver at the end of 2025. Silver.
Futures
Silver is also traded on futures markets. The largest exchanges are Shanghai Futures Exchange, in China, and CME Group COMEX New York.
Futures contracts are agreements where the seller promises to deliver silver to the buyer at a future date. Typically, they are traded through a broker.
Futures are usually not held for delivery, but instead exchanged with futures of a later date. Both buyers and sellers can speculate on the price of silver without having to move and store metal.
Futures also offer the advantage that you do not have to pay for the entire amount of silver. Instead, you only need to pay a fraction, called a margin.
Exchange-Traded Funds
ETFs are traded on stock exchanges like the NYSE or LSE along with shares of publicly-traded companies.
Each share of the fund represents a certain amount of silver in the vault.
Apps such as Robinhood allow small investors to trade ETFs easily.
The price of the ETF can be brought back to normal if there is a strong demand. If the ETF's price is higher than the metal it represents, then more silver will be moved to the vault. BlackRock's iShares Silver Trust is the largest, with around?529 millions ounces worth $52.9 billion.
BARS AND COINS
Silver bars and coins are also available to smaller investors from retailers all over the world.
SILVER MINERS
Investors can buy shares of companies that mine for silver. These are also easily traded on platforms such as Robinhood.
Silver prices tend to affect the value of these shares, but other factors, such as management, debt, and performance, also influence their value. (Reporting and editing by Anmol Chaubey, Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)