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Gold prices to suffer big loss this week despite global equity gains
Wall Street gained Friday as European shares rose to a fifth consecutive weekly gain, thanks to positive earnings that sustained the rally ignited by a U.S. China trade truce. Gold prices have suffered their largest weekly decline since November. Oil futures have seen a slight weekly increase, but are still relatively low. This has helped to support stocks and bonds. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 0.5%. A University of Michigan study showed that U.S. consumers' sentiment continued to deteriorate in May, as inflation expectations for the next year increased. Households remained worried about the impact of President Donald Trump’s aggressive and erratic trading policy. The yields on U.S. Treasuries dropped after data showed that housing starts were lower than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 331.99 points or 0.78% to 42,654.74, while the S&P 500 gained 41.45 points or 0.70% to 5,958.38, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 98.78 or 0.52% to 19,211.10. Investors have largely enjoyed a good week on the global equity markets. They cheered the tariff truce that was reached between the United States of America and China, which greatly reduced the risk of global recession. Nabil Milali is a Multi-Asset & Overlay strategist at Edmond de Rothschild. He also pointed out that news of the European Union's and U.S.'s agreement to intensify their talks on a potential trade agreement and a better-than-expected results season. "We are very fortunate to have had more positive surprises in the stock market." The pan-European STOXX 600 finished 0.4% higher, rounding out a fifth consecutive week of gains. Strong corporate results added to gains made during the pause in the trade war. LSEG data from earlier this week showed that earnings in the region are expected to rise more than originally thought. Import prices in the U.S. unexpectedly increased in April, as an increase in capital goods offset lower energy products. "We are at the beginning of a transition in trade." In April, it was unclear what the impact would be. However, we do know that uncertainty has thrown residential builders into disarray," said Jeffrey Roach Chief Economist at LPL Financial, Charlotte, North Carolina. The data showed that U.S. housing starts for single-family homes fell by 2.1% seasonally adjusted in April, as high mortgage rates and tariffs on imported goods remained obstacles to the housing market. The report pushed yields down. This week, the main MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks excluding Japan rose by more than 3%. The oil price has been choppy all week. It rose on the U.S. China deal before dropping 2% on Friday due to increased supply pressure caused by an OPEC+ production increase and the prospect for an Iranian nuclear agreement. Brent futures settled at 1.4%. Market bets on the Federal Reserve's easing this year have increased to 57 basis point from 49 basis points. Kenneth Broux is head of corporate FX and rates research at Societe Generale. This put a halt to the Fed's hawkish repricing. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 1.2 basis points, or 0.44%, to extend Thursday's decline. Walmart, the largest retailer in the world, has announced that it will have to raise prices this month because of the high tariff costs. Milali, Edmond de Rothschild’s Milali, said that the relief was only temporary as the tariff shock remains "very significant." The dollar edged up against a basket currency. U.S. Gold Futures and Spot Gold both fell 1.2%.
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Southern California Edison presents a three-year plan for wildfire mitigation
Southern California Edison, a division of Edison International, announced on Friday that it had submitted to California's Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety a Wildfire Mitigation Plan for a period of three years. SCE stated that the plan is a continuation of efforts to address both immediate and long-term risks from wildfires in response to changing customer needs and extreme weather conditions. The company anticipates investing $6.2 billion in three years, from 2026-2028. This includes the installation of at least 440 additional circuit miles covered conductor as well as nearly 260 circuit mile of underground distribution lines. Brian Fennessy, fire chief at the Orange County Fire Authority said: "With drought conditions in the state we are preparing ourselves for another busy year." Southern California Edison is facing several lawsuits alleging its electrical equipment caused one of the largest wildfires to occur in the Los Angeles region - the Eaton Fire. The utility submitted an initial rebuilding plan in April for the areas of its service area that were destroyed by the Los Angeles fires. It estimated the cost at between $860 and $925. Wildfires ravaged Los Angeles beginning on 7 January, causing dozens of fatalities and the destruction of thousands of homes. The cost of the disaster is estimated to have been the highest in U.S. History. SCE stated that the WMP contains safety tools and methods such as AI and Machine Learning detection, early fault identification and alternative undergrounding techniques. (Reporting and editing by Arun Koyyur in Bengalur; reporting by Pooja menon from Bengalur)
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Libyan protesters call for the resignation of three ministers as they demand that the Prime Minister resign
On Friday, hundreds of Libyan demonstrators called for the removal of Abdulhamid Dbeibah as the internationally recognized prime minister. At least three ministers also resigned to show their support. Demonstrators gathered on Martyrs' Square, Tripoli. They chanted slogans like "The nation wants the topple of the government" or "We want elections." The protesters then marched on to the main building of the government in the center of the city. One protester declared, "We will not leave until he leaves." The marchers carried photos of Dbeibah, National Security Advisor Ibrahim Dbeibah and interior minister Emad Tarbulsi in which their faces were crossed out with red Dbeibah is the leader of the unified government of the formerly divided country. He came to power in 2021 through a UN-backed procedure. Due to disagreements between rival factions in 2021, planned elections did not proceed. Dbeibah has since remained at the helm. Wael Abdulhafed, a businessman, said on Friday: "We (are) here today to express (our) anger against Dbeibah, and all those who have been in power for years and (who) prevented elections. They must leave the power." After the fiercest fighting in recent years, two rival armed factions clashed this week in the capital. According to the United Nations, eight civilians died. Violence erupted after Prime Minister Dbeibah ordered Tuesday the dismantling of armed groups. Demonstrators accused Dbeibah, the prime minister of Bahrain, of failing to restore peace and complicity in the growth of armed group power. On Friday, the Economy and Trade Minister Mohamed al-Hawij resigned. The Local Government Minister Badr Eddin al-Tumi as well as the Minister of Housing Abu Bakr al-Ghawi also resigned. The clashes ceased on Wednesday, after the government declared a ceasefire. Abdulghani Kikli of the militia, also known as Ghaniwa died. Since the NATO-backed 2011 uprising that ousted Muammar Gadhafi, Libya has been a volatile place. In 2014, the country was split between eastern and western rival factions. However, major wars were halted by a ceasefire in 2020. Despite the fact that Khalifa Hastar's Libyan National Army has dominated eastern Libya for over a decade, Tripoli and west Libya are now controlled by a number of armed groups. In southern and eastern Libya the main oil facilities are located, far away from the fighting in Tripoli. The engineers at several oil export terminals and fields said that production was not affected by the fighting. Reporting by Ahmed Elumami, Hani Amara and Tarek Amara. Editing by Chris Reese, Cynthia Osterman and Cynthia Osterman.
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Gold prices to suffer big loss this week despite global equity gains
Wall Street gained Friday as European shares rose to a fifth consecutive weekly gain, thanks to positive earnings that sustained the rally ignited by a U.S. China trade truce. Gold prices have suffered their largest weekly decline since November. Oil futures have seen a slight weekly increase, but are still relatively low. This has helped to support stocks and bonds. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 0.39%. A University of Michigan study showed that U.S. consumers' sentiment continued to deteriorate in May, as inflation expectations for the next year increased. Households remained worried about the impact of President Donald Trump’s aggressive and often erratic trading policy. The yields on U.S. Treasuries dropped after data showed that housing starts were lower than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 304.91 or 0.72% to 42,627.66. The S&P 500 gained 34.06 or 0.58% to 5,950.99. And the Nasdaq Composite increased by 79.87 or 0.41% to 19,189.87. Investors have largely enjoyed a good week on the global equity markets. They cheered the tariff truce that was reached between the United States of America and China, which greatly reduced the risk of global recession. Nabil Milali is a Multi-Asset & Overlay strategist at Edmond de Rothschild. He also pointed out that news of the European Union's and U.S.'s agreement to intensify their talks on a potential trade agreement and a better-than-expected results season. "The fact we are getting more positive surprises for European stocks is very good." The pan-European STOXX 600 finished 0.4% higher, rounding out a fifth consecutive week of gains. Strong corporate results added to gains made during the trade war pause. LSEG data from earlier this week showed that earnings in the region are expected to rise more than originally thought. Import prices in the U.S. unexpectedly increased in April, as an increase in capital goods offset lower energy products. "We are at the beginning of a transition in trade." In April, it was unclear what the impact would be. However, we do know that uncertainty has pushed residential builders out of balance. The data showed that U.S. housing starts for single-family homes fell by 2.1% seasonally adjusted in April, as high mortgage rates and tariffs on imported goods remained obstacles to the housing market. The report helped to push yields down. This week, the main MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks excluding Japan rose by more than 3%. The oil price has been choppy all week. It rose on the U.S. China deal before dropping 2% on Friday due to increased supply pressure caused by an OPEC+ production increase and the prospect for an Iranian nuclear agreement. Brent futures settled at 1.4%. Market bets on the Federal Reserve's easing this year have increased to 57 basis point from 49 basis points. Kenneth Broux is head of corporate FX and rates research at Societe Generale. This put a halt to the Fed's hawkish outlook and poured cold-water on the global bond selling. The 10-year Treasury benchmark yield dropped 1.6 basis points, or 0.439 percent, to 4,439%. This is a continuation of the drop on Thursday. The yields on government bonds in the Eurozone were also lower. Walmart, the largest retailer in the world, has announced that it will have to raise prices this month because of the high tariff costs. Milali, Edmond de Rothschild’s Milali, said that the relief was only temporary as the tariff shock remains "very significant". The dollar grew against a basket currency. Spot gold dropped 1.6% to $3188.25 per ounce, and U.S. Gold Futures ended down 1.2%.
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UK reforms transfer responsibility for position limitations to LME
A source familiar with the matter has confirmed that the London Metal Exchange will limit the number of positions on its platform in July of next year, as part of reforms introduced by the UK Financial Watchdog and not because traders made large bets. Bloomberg News reported Friday that the LME was discussing limits to large positions held by traders of commodities, which has created volatility in price on its platform over the past few months for copper and aluminum contracts. The Financial Conduct Authority of Britain (FCA) currently sets position limits. In December 2023, the FCA opened a public consultation on reforms proposed to improve the resilience and stability of the commodity derivatives markets. Consultation ended in February of last year, and the policy document that stipulated changes was published this February. The LME now has responsibility for determining position limits and exemptions, instead of the FCA. The London exchange responded to a comment request by saying that it was working on implementing the FCA final rules and guidelines on reforming commodity derivatives regulation framework. We will inform the market as we prepare for the launch of the new framework, which is scheduled to take place on 6 July 2026." According to industry sources, the LME has discussed position limits with members for a while and will likely consult on any proposed limits. The FCA has also added new requirements for over-the counter (OTC) trades or bilateral transactions between brokers and clients. In its policy document, the FCA stated that "We proposed new obligations aimed at improving the early identification by trading venues of these risks through the reporting firms' OTC derivatives positions." Our final rules stipulate that trading venues must have the ability to collect OTC data, but they also specify how this power can be used differently depending on the risk and characteristics of a specific market. Reporting by Pratima Deai and Polina Demoitt Editing Frances Kerry
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Weight loss drug manufacturers are lining up to take advantage of a lucrative market, as the competition heats up
Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and other pharmaceutical companies are in competition for the next generation of treatments for obesity. In recent quarters, Eli Lilly’s Zepbound gained market share against Novo’s Wegovy -- a trend that led, in part to the Friday ouster of Novo CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen. Here is a list with weight loss drugs that are being developed by Novo, Lilly, and other companies in search of the next big treatment. NOVO NORDISK The Danish pharmaceutical company is developing several experimental weight loss drugs. These include a pill, a new-generation injection, called amycretin and a drug called CagriSema. In an early stage trial last year, Novo's Amycretin, taken daily, led to a 13.1% weight reduction after only 12 weeks. Early-mid-stage trials found that the shot version of amycretin caused patients to lose 22% of weight within 36 weeks. CagriSema - touted as the potent successor of Wegovy - showed less-than-expected results in two late-stage studies. In one trial, the drug helped overweight patients reduce their weight by 22,7%. This was below Novo's expectation of 25%. Novo intends to submit CagriSema to regulatory approval during the first quarter 2026. Novo also has licensing agreements for drugs that are still in the testing stage, such as the $2 billion deal it signed with China's United Laboratories to develop a drug for weight loss called "triple G" which targets three hormones. ELI LILLY In a late-stage study, Lilly's weight-loss drug orforglipron has helped type 2 diabetics lose nearly 8% their body weight in 40 weeks. This compares well with Novo's injectable drug Ozempic. Ozempic at the highest dosage for diabetic patients caused them to lose 6% of their weight. Lilly plans to submit an application for orforglipron regulatory approval by the end the year. Lilly reported that a mid-stage study of its next generation obesity drug candidate (a weekly injection retatrutide) led to a weight loss of as much as 24.2% in 48 weeks. Lilly signed an agreement with China's Laekna biotech last year for the development of a drug to treat obesity that helps patients to lose weight and maintain muscle. PFIZER Pfizer stopped developing the experimental weight loss pill danuglipron in October after a patient who was undergoing a clinical trial experienced a potential drug-induced injury to the liver that resolved when the medication was discontinued. In March, Roche acquired the rights to Zealand Pharma’s petrelintide obesity treatment in a possible deal worth up to $5,3 billion. Carmot Therapeutics, a Swiss pharmaceutical company, acquired CT-388, an experimental drug for obesity, as part of a $2.7 billion purchase of Carmot Therapeutics that will take place in 2023. Carmot's injection, which is administered once a week, belongs to the same category as Lilly's Mounjaro or Zepbound. The company announced last year that the early-stage trials of a second drug candidate purchased from Carmot had yielded positive outcomes. In a year-long, mid-stage study, Amgen's MariTide drug helped obese patients lose up to 20% of body weight. Amgen says that MariTide late-stage research will begin before the middle of this year. Analysts say MariTide has similar weight loss benefits to Wegovy and Zepbound but slightly more side effects. Merck signed an agreement in December worth up to $ 2 billion to license Hansoh Pharma’s oral experimental drug for treating obesity. Merck is now a late competitor to the race to provide a weight loss pill that can replace weekly injections. The drug HS-10535 is a GLP-1 agonist similar to Wegovy or Zepbound. ASTRAZENECA AstraZeneca’s experimental weight loss pill, licensed from China’s Eccogene a year earlier for up to $ 2 billion, has been found safe and tolerable during an early-stage study in November 2024. The drugmaker has announced that it is moving the once-daily pill AZD5004 into mid-stage clinical trials. ALTIMMUNE Altimmune's experimental weight-loss drug pemvidutide helped reduce weight on average by 15.6% and showed weight loss continued at the end treatment. Some patients, however, experience mild to moderate nausea and vomiting. VIKING THERAPEUTICS Viking Therapeutics reported last year that its experimental drug VK2735 helped patients achieve a 14.7% weight loss mean after 13 weeks in a midstage study. The study enrolled 176 obese adults with at least 1 weight-related comorbidity. The company reported that in November, nine patients who were given the highest dose of 100 milligrams lost an average of 8.2% body weight within 28 days of an early-stage study. ZEALAND PHARMA A Danish biotech company, Zealand Pharma, said that a high-dose of petrelintide (its weight-loss drug-candidate) helped reduce weight on average by 8.6% in an early stage study. In August 2024, the company announced that it would begin talks with other pharmaceutical firms in the second half this year about potential partnerships for developing and commercializing petrelintide. Therapeutics of Structure Structure Therapeutics reported last year that its experimental oral weight loss drug reduced weight by an average of 6.2% at the end 12 weeks in a study conducted during mid-stage.
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Circ will build a $500 million cotton and polyester recycling plant in France
The French government and European Union have given Circ, a U.S. textile recycler, the backing to build a $500-million plant in France. This will be the world's first industrial facility to recover cotton and polyster on a large scale. The French government announced on Friday that the Saint-Avold plant in the north-east of the country, will have the capacity to process 70,000 tons per year once it begins operating in 2028. It will employ 200 workers. Peter Majeranowski, chief executive of the company, said that the plant, which is funded by a combination of equity and debt and a 450 million euro ($504.09 millions) investment, will seek grants and guarantees, including the Strategic Projects Guarantee, from the French government. The EU is working to achieve net-zero emission by 2050. However, efforts have been scattered. Majeranowski stated that the new factory will mark a turning-point for the industry. He said that this will be the first industrial-scale polycotton recycling plant in the world. "Most clothing is made from a mixture of cotton and polyester, which makes it difficult to recycle. This facility is an important milestone." According to the U.N., the fashion industry accounts for 10% of the global greenhouse gas emissions. It also uses more energy that the aviation and shipping industries put together. It is also one of the biggest consumers of water, and a polluter of freshwater sources. Many companies are working on technologies to recycle millions of tons polycotton waste that is created each year. This comes as retailers strive to improve their sustainability credentials, and to meet stricter regulations. Circ uses hydrothermal technologies to break down polyester without damaging cotton so that both can then be recovered and reused in the same procedure. Circ, a recycling company owned by Inditex's Zara and Patagonia, has already been used as a source of recycled material for brands such as Inditex. The factory was built in partnership with Worley, GEA and Andritz. Majeranowski stated that the goal is to use the factory as a template for future plants. Producers and suppliers are eager to assist fashion firms achieve their climate goals. He said, "We've had a lot interest from around the world. From South Asia, East Asia and the States, Canada, Australia, of course."
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TSX poised to gain six weekly points amid trade optimism
The main Canadian stock index remained unchanged on Friday, and investors expect more trade agreements to be reached amid the easing of tariff tensions and softening U.S. inflation figures. The Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX Composite Index was down 0.04% to 25,888.06 point. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Friday that U.S. officials would send letters in the next few weeks to other countries outlining the costs of doing business in the United States. He did not give any additional details. "In Canada ,...there is an expectation that we will be in a position to renegotiate trade agreements with them, and return to a positive relationship with the U.S.," said Ian Chong. The 90-day pause between the U.S. - China tariff dispute and the bilateral trade agreement signed by the U.S. with the UK this week helped to ease concerns about the recession and sparked hope for future deals with the U.S. Chong said that the markets had moved from a position of extreme fear to one of overbought, and it was remarkable how much volatility had decreased since Liberation Day. In May, the data showed that consumer sentiment in the U.S. fell further, but inflation expectations for one year rose. The markets will also be focused on the remarks of Federal Reserve policymakers. At least two officials including Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin are scheduled to speak later that day. The TSX mining subindex rose 0.5%, as the gold price dropped by more than 2%. This was their worst week for six months. Lithium Americas' stock fell 7.5% in corporate news after it filed for an initial public offering (IPO) of approximately $1 billion. (Reporting from Sanchayaita in Bengaluru, editing by Vijay Kishore.)
Andy Home: Copper's US tariff is crushed by a wave of imports
The threat of a tariff by U.S. president Donald Trump on imports of copper has caused a massive relocation of metals, flooding the U.S. and draining other markets.
Since the Trump administration announced a Section 232 investigation in February into U.S. Imports of the Red Metal, traders have been rushing metal into the country in order to lock in a possible tariff windfall.
The physical reaction has been so strong that it has caused futures arbitrage to collapse between the CME Contract and the London Metal Exchange Price (LME).
WAITING FOR TRUMP
The copper market is betting on a 25% U.S. import tariff, which will match the existing rates for steel and aluminum.
Tariff trade is evident in the premium that the CME contract for U.S. products cleared by customs commands over the LME international price.
Three weeks ago, the cash premium was around $1,600 per ton. This is 17% higher than the LME price. Since then, it has fallen to just $600 per metric ton or 6% of London's price.
The timing of tariffs is still uncertain, but it's not like anyone hasn't expected them. Section 232 investigations have a 270 day deadline. White House officials, however, promised a resolution "in Trump time" - whatever that may mean.
The price differential between the U.S. & Europe is being narrowed by the volume of metals arriving in the U.S.
METAL ON MOVE
Morgan Stanley analysts report that U.S. imports have increased to 40,000 tonnes per week from 14,000 tonnes per week in late March.
Metals have been flooding into CME's warehouses for the past two years, with most of them arriving in New Orleans.
CME's copper stock has increased by 81% from the beginning of the year, and now stands at a record high of 168.563 short tons.
CME spreads are in contango unlike those of the LME where the benchmark cash to three-months is spread.
LME copper inventories have fallen to an all-time low of 179.375 tons. 40% of the remaining inventory is awaiting physical loading.
The raid on LME stock has focused on copper, which can be delivered in exchange for CME contracts or traded with consumers to get CME brands.
The LME stock is now largely made up of Russian and Chinese brands. At the end of April, they accounted for 98% the 129.200 tons of warranted inventories.
The U.S. trade war has reached China. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have fallen from their Lunar New Year peak of 268,337 tones to 108.142 tons.
China's refined copper imports fell by 5% year-overyear and 20% quarter-overquarter in the period January-March as the metal was diverted to America.
SCRAP FLOWS SLOW
The impact of the U.S. tariff on copper scrap has compounded the regional imbalances.
China was the primary destination of U.S. copper shipments, importing 441,000 tons in 2013.
The trade has halted due to the uncertainty surrounding both a tariff on copper and the larger reciprocal tariff situation.
The U.S. has a growing mountain of refined steel, and a surplus of copper that is recyclable.
If the trade dispute between the two parties can be de-escalated, then it is likely that some of these materials will become available after 90 days.
Picture Distorted
The global copper exchange inventory has not changed much in the past year. Stocks are hovering at around 500,000 tons, down only 1,700 tonnes from the beginning of January.
There has been a massive redistribution from around the world of metals to the U.S.
This process will continue until the Trump Administration decides whether or not to impose an import tariff on copper and what level.
The CME-LME arbitration should theoretically stabilize at the announced rate of tariff, but it's clear that this won't happen overnight due to the increasing volume of inventory on the U.S. side of the trade.
The higher the U.S. Copper Mountain will grow the longer the White House takes to decide.
These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
(source: Reuters)