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As trade tensions ease, metals are expected to rise as US data is in focus
London metals traded in a narrow range on Wednesday, as signs of an easing in trade tensions between China and the U.S. were evident. Investors awaited U.S. data to gauge Federal Reserve's outlook for monetary policy. As of 0105 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), was down by 0.4%, to $9,403 per metric ton. This week, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Personal Consumption Spending (PCE) Data are due. These data could influence metal prices as they affect Fed's interest rates decisions and economic outlook. U.S. president Donald Trump signed two orders to reduce his auto tariffs. This follows Treasury Secretary Bessent’s statement on Monday that certain key U.S. traders had made promising proposals to avoid U.S. duties. Bessent noted that China’s recent exemptions of certain U.S. goods from retaliatory duties showed a willingness for trade tensions to be de-escalated. The trade war tensions seem to have stabilized this week, without any major developments. There is some optimism in the meantime about a possible de-escalation of tensions between China and the U.S. "Our attention is now focused on U.S. Economic Data," said a trader. Other London metals include aluminium, which fell by 0.1%, to $2.462 per ton. Zinc rose by 0.1%, to $2.653, while lead dropped 0.1%, to $1.975. Tin remained unchanged at $31,919, and nickel increased 0.1%, to $15.570. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most traded copper contract was unchanged at 77 570 yuan per ton ($10 671 34). Shanghai copper prices were supported due to a huge drop in inventories for the metal CUSTX-SGH, which fell 32% on a weekly basis in the warehouses monitored by Shanghai Futures Exchange. SHFE aluminium rose 0.4% to 19.995 yuan per ton. Zinc remained unchanged at 22,540 yuan. Lead fell by 0.3% to 16.895 yuan. Nickel fell by 0.3% to 124.130 yuan. Tin remained at 261,160. ($1 = 7.2690 Chinese Yuan Renminbi)
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Oil prices fall as global growth worries fuel tariffs
On Wednesday, oil prices and shares were in a state of confusion as the relief from a possible easing of trade tensions around the world was countered by a worsening economy outlook and gloomy signals coming from corporations affected by Donald Trump's new tariffs. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds also remained near their multi-week lows, as traders bet that the Federal Reserve would continue to cut rates in order to support the largest economy of the world. Details are scarce despite Trump's efforts to ease the impact of his auto tariffs, and signs of progress on broader trade talks. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he had made one agreement with a foreign country. Investors were also concerned about deteriorating U.S. statistics as Trump's tariffs had a ripple effect on businesses and consumers in the United States. David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, said: "We increase the probability of an extended economic stagnation, which meets the criteria for recession, up to 50%." The rising likelihood of economic stagnation is due entirely to exogenous factors such as an erratic economic policy, with arbitrary tariffs and disruptions in public spending. The data released on Tuesday revealed that the U.S. goods trade deficit reached a new record in March, as businesses stocked up ahead of Trump's proposed tariffs. This suggests trade was the main drag on the economy in the first quarter. The first quarter GDP is expected later today. In April, U.S. consumer sentiment also fell to its lowest level in nearly five years. Wall Street Futures struggled to maintain gains made overnight during the cash session due to the precarious economic outlook in the United States and globally. In Asia, Nasdaq Futures declined 0.6% while S&P500 futures dropped 0.4%. The futures of the EUROSTOXX50 fluctuated between gains and losses, while MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan only added 0.1%. The Nikkei gained 0.15%. The impact of Trump's trade conflict has been felt in the corporate world. UPS, a delivery giant, announced it would cut 20,000 positions to reduce costs. General Motors, meanwhile, canceled its investor call and lowered its forecasts. "You see companies making statements about low transparency, their unwillingness or inability of signing long-term contracts and to make long-term planning - this is a slippery slope", said Fabiana Fedeli at a Monday media roundtable. Worries about global economic growth and the impact it has on demand also contributed to the steep decline in oil prices from previous sessions. Brent crude futures fell 0.28% overnight to $64.07 per barrel. U.S. crude fell 0.35%, to $60.21 a barrel after a 2.6% decline on Tuesday. Spot gold remained at $3,316.11 per ounce. DATA DUMP The release of the core PCE Price Index - the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation - will also be due on Wednesday. This is before the jobs data, which are expected at the end the week. Payrolls will rise by 130,000, and inflation will ease. However, there is more uncertainty regarding GDP growth with a median forecast of a paltry 0.3% annualised. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 97 basis points in December, compared to 80 basis points early last week. This has pushed yields in the U.S. down. The two-year Treasury rate is now at its lowest level in three weeks, 3.6400%. The benchmark 10-year rate was last at 4.1580%. This is also its lowest level since early April. On the foreign exchange markets, the dollar stabilized on Wednesday as a selloff of the U.S. dollar paused as traders evaluated the prospects of a negotiated solution to the tariffs. The dollar was last seen at 142.29 yen, while the euro was still some distance from its three-year high of $1.1383. After consumer prices increased slightly more than expected, the Aussie dollar traded 0.3% higher to $0.6401 following early gains. Data from China also showed that manufacturing activity declined in April. This reversed two months of growth and kept alive the calls for Beijing to provide further stimulus. Chinese shares opened with a muted tone in line the wider market. The CSI300 blue chip index rose 0.12% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.08%. The onshore yuan has slipped to 7.2736 dollars per yuan. In a note, Societe Generale economists said that, "in light of tariffs," they had revised their GDP growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 in China down to 4%. They also assumed an additional stimulus of 2.5% GDP. Now, the economists expect more deflationary pressures this year and next.
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Australia's IGO lowers its capex forecast for Greenbushes Lithium mine in Western Australia
IGO Ltd, a company based in Australia, announced on Wednesday it would reduce its capital expenditure forecasts for fiscal 2025 at its Greenbushes Lithium mine in Western Australia. The miner expects to spend between A$700 and A$800 millions, a reduction from the previous range of A$850 to A$950 for fiscal 2025. IGO announced that it would lower its forecast after a review of and optimization of the portfolio for project capital. Greenbushes Lithium Mine is owned in large part by IGO, its Chinese joint venture partner Tianqi Lithium and U.S.-based Albemarle Corp. Greenbushes, Western Australia’s longest continuously operating mining area, produced 341 kilometric tons of spodumene in the third quarter. This was a drop of 13% from the previous quarter. The miner said last year that the lithium market was troubling his firm, with the spodumene and lithium carbonate prices dropping by as much as 70% in fiscal 2024. After a 90 percent drop in lithium prices in the past two years, some mines producing the metal, which is used to make batteries for electric vehicles, have curtailed their operations or delayed expansions. Other mines, however, that are losing money, have continued production, in part because of the support they receive from Chinese battery manufacturers. In early this year, Tianqi Lithium and the miner agreed to stop all work at one of their lithium hydroxide facilities in Western Australia. IGO has decided to stop operations at its lithium hydroxide facility in Kwinana. This decision follows IGO's prior write-downs of its nickel operations. These have led to a strategic review that reassesses its resources, amid an oversupply on the global nickel market which drove down prices last year. Separately the miner reported underlying earnings before taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), which was A$34m for the third quarter. This is a significant improvement from the EBITDA loss last quarter of A$79m. As of 0058 GMT the shares of the company had fallen nearly 1.9%, while the mining index as a whole fell 0.4%.
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For now, fired US coal safety workers have been brought back.
Around 40 federal employees who were working on coal-mining safety and firefighter's safety before losing their jobs have been asked to return to their work this week. However, it is unclear whether their positions will permanently be reinstated, West Virginia senator and agency's union stated on Tuesday. Employees from the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (part of the Health and Human Services Department) worked on programs to prevent firefighter and coal miner fatalities and promote the health and safety of coal miners. The Trump administration reduced the NIOSH workforce by about 1,000 people earlier this month. The move was reported to have cut off key safety programs for miners who are experiencing a rise in black lung disease. The termination date was June 2. The union AFGE Local 3430 welcomed the temporary call back, which they said was focused on NIOSH units that were "currently in media spotlight". However, the union called on HHS for all NIOSH staff to be brought back, stating that their role is vital in protecting employees in high-risk industries. AFGE Local 343, the agency's union, reports that both programs had previously employed about 40 people. Regional managers have asked almost all of them to return to work this week after being on administrative leave, even though they will still be terminated by June 2. Shelley Moore Capito, a West Virginia senator, has asked HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the restoration of the programs. This includes the coal-focused activities carried out by the Morgantown, West Virginia, office. She found the news encouraging, but she wanted to know more about the future of the agency. She said, "I understand that this is temporary and my focus will be to work with @HHSGov in permanently restoring these services and personnel as efficiently and effectively as possible." HHS didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Scott Laney lost his job in NIOSH's reduction-in force as an epidemiologist for coal surveillance. He said that regional managers asked him verbally and other staff at the Morgantown Office to return from their administrative leave. He was not informed by the managers if he would be employed beyond June 2, nor did they send him a written notice, which made him wonder if the agency had reversed the job cuts. Laney stated that he would be testifying at a District Court on May 7, in a case brought against Kennedy regarding the job cuts affecting NIOSH’s West Virginia office. President Donald Trump has signed executive orders to revitalize the U.S. Coal Industry.
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Sources say that ADNOC, the UAE's LPG supplier, will supply US LPG in India after China and US tariffs.
Industry sources have confirmed that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company will begin replacing some of its liquefied gas supplies to India from June with cheaper U.S. cargoes, as U.S. China tariffs are reshaping global trade flows. ADNOC will be able to ship more LPG from its own production to China. Buyers in China are paying higher prices to replace U.S. supplies after Beijing raised tariffs on U.S. products. This move also reduces LPG costs for India. 2 importer. India imports more than 80% its LPG from the Middle East including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It also sources LPG through annual contracts with Qatar and Kuwait. In the first week of this month, Indian refiners asked Middle East suppliers for a very rare swap: some of their long-term supply was to be replaced with U.S. LPG. Sources said that Indian refiners requested U.S. LPG be delivered at a discount to the Middle Eastern benchmark Saudi Contract Price. ADNOC has, according to sources, agreed to supply U.S. LPG to refiners in India under annual contracts between June and July. They said that the U.S.-China conflict has widened price gaps between Middle Eastern LPG and U.S. LPG. One of the sources stated: "It's difficult to replace all volumes with U.S. LPG." LPG." June Goh is an analyst with Sparta Commodities. She said that India's LPG consumption is mostly for domestic purposes and therefore requires a higher percentage butane. She added, "India can therefore benefit from the diversion but not propane cargoes of U.S. LPG." ADNOC and Indian refiners Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. did not respond to requests for comments. According to data from the government, India imported approximately 60% of its total LPG consumption in 2023/24. This equates to 29,66 million metric tonnes. Yousef SABA in Dubai contributed additional reporting; Florence Tan, Jan Harvey and Jan Harvey edited the article.
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Britain is unprepared for the worsening effects of climate change according to advisers
The independent climate advisors of the UK said that the country is not prepared for climate change's worsening effects, such as extreme heat and flooding. Last year, Britain suffered from widespread flooding, which disrupted travel and caused damage to homes. In recent years, it has also experienced heatwaves, a drought and wildfires. We have seen over the past two years that the country was not prepared to deal with the effects of climate change. We know that there will be worse, but we're not prepared. In many cases, we don't even plan to be prepared. Scientists said in January that 2024 will be the hottest on record for the entire world. Climate change is pushing temperatures to levels not experienced by humans before and increasing extreme weather events. Every two years, the CCC's adaption committee examines the country's progress in adapting to climate changes and submits a report to Parliament. The latest report, published on Wednesday, said that rising sea levels due to climate change may increase the number homes at risk of floods from 6.3 million today to 8,000,000 by 2050. By 2050, heat-related deaths may exceed 10,000 per year. In 2022, temperatures in the country reached record highs of over 40 degrees Celsius. This report stated that over half of England’s best quality agricultural land is already at risk from flooding, and this percentage will increase in the future. The committee recommended better adaptation targets and improved coordination across government in order to take into account climate impacts such as those on infrastructure and state-funded healthcare systems. (Reporting by Susanna Twidale, editing by William James).
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Codelco Chairman says that April copper production is up and there are strong US and China demands
The copper output from Chile’s state-run Codelco increased 22% in April, compared with the same period last year. A production of 105,000 tons is expected, said Chairman Maximo Pacheco on Tuesday. Last year, the world's biggest copper producer recovered from a production low of a quarter century and is now aiming to boost its output again this year. Pacheco said at a shareholders' meeting on Tuesday, that the demand for red metal is high. He also acknowledged the geopolitical tensions surrounding access to essential minerals. He said, "The market is looking good. It looks very strong in Asia. In China. In the United States. And in Brazil." Codelco had previously stated that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. Tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration had led to more copper shipments into the United States. He noted that the demand for copper from China increased in the second quarter. Pacheco stated that he was working to promote construction of a copper smelter, and Codelco had offered to provide 1.2 million tonnes of copper per year in a contract lasting 20-30 years as an incentive for investors. Pacheco discussed Codelco’s efforts to enter into the lithium business in Chile. Chile is the second largest producer of battery metals. Pacheco is confident that China regulators will approve a joint venture between SQM, a lithium producer at the Atacama Salt Flats and Pacheco. However, he says the timeline for approval is still unclear. China is the final country that needs to approve the partnership. This will be the first time the state of Chile enters the lithium production industry. Pacheco stated that Codelco had already provided all the materials required to China about the planned operation. Codelco is also looking to enter the business of lithium with a project on Chile's Maricunga Salt Flat. Pacheco stated that a partner would be announced in the next few weeks or months after Codelco had received binding offers by global companies.
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Edison International's profits beat estimates due to lower costs and rate increases
Edison International exceeded Wall Street expectations for the first quarter profit on Tuesday as it benefited from lower expenses for operating and interest and higher rates. Low interest rates can reduce the borrowing costs of power companies. These companies need to borrow more money for their expenses, such as upgrading and maintaining the electric grid. Edison's interest expenses decreased by 32.2% in the first quarter to $301 millions, while operating expenses dropped 56.2% to $1.72 billion. As the demand for power from AI data centres, domestic manufacturing, and extreme weather conditions such as wildfires increases, it is expected that electricity bills will rise. Southern California Edison, Edison's subsidiary, is facing numerous lawsuits alleging that its electrical equipment caused one of the largest wildfires to occur in the Los Angeles region - the Eaton Fire. Pedro Pizarro, CEO of the company, said: "We're working closely with leaders from the state and county and communities in Altadena and Malibu on rebuilding areas affected by wildfires." Pizarro said that the grid hardening will improve reliability by reducing exposure to extreme weather conditions such as high winds and storms. The company confirmed its forecast of adjusted earnings for the full year 2025 in a range between $5.94 and $6.34. Analysts estimated that they would be $6.01 a share. According to data compiled and analyzed by LSEG, the Rosemead-based California company reported an adjusted profit per share of $1.37 for the quarter ending March 31 compared with analysts’ estimates of $1.20. Reporting by Pooja menon in Bengaluru, Editing by Shailesh kuber
Base metals decline as Trump's tariffs increase demand concerns
Investors feared that the new U.S. broad tariffs could halt global growth and impact industrial metal demand. Base metals dropped in London on Thursday, with copper reaching its lowest level in over three weeks.
By 0909 GMT, the benchmark three-month price of copper on London Metal Exchange (LME), which had hit $9,485, was down by 1.6% to $9,546.50 a metric tonne.
Markets are taking into account the potential negative impact of tariffs on demand and the possible responses from other major trading partners. "We expect the downward trend to continue, at least for the short term," said BNP Paribas' analyst David Wilson.
Citi predicts that copper will fall to $8,500 in the third quarter as tariff increases impact global growth expectations, consumption prospects, and risk appetite. BNP Paribas predicts the same level during the second quarter.
On Wednesday evening, Donald Trump announced a reciprocal tariff that would raise import taxes to their highest level in over a century.
The tariffs also include an additional 34% on imports of metals to the United States from China, which is the largest consumer of metals in the world. China's Foreign Ministry called on the United States "to correct its wrongdoing".
The White House did not include copper for which the U.S. Administration is currently conducting a separate investigation into possible new tariffs as well as aluminum and steel that are already subject to 25% duties.
The reciprocal tariffs will not apply to "other minerals" that are not produced in the U.S.
LME aluminium fell 0.5%, to $2.478 per ton, after reaching $2.448, its lowest level since September 13.
A metals trader said that the contract, which has fallen for 11 straight sessions, is being pressured by Commodity Trading Advisors, funds that track momentum using computer models. He believes that this activity will soon fade.
Lead fell 0.5% and zinc dropped 1.1% on the LME. Both reached their lowest levels in two months. Nickel dropped 0.5% to $15,880, after reaching a 1-month low.
LME Tin was down 3.4% to $36,620. On Wednesday, it hit $38,395, the highest since May 2022. This was due to short-covering as investors feared that the recent earthquake in Myanmar could delay mining and exports. (Reporting from London by Polina Devitt; Additional reporting in Shanghai by Violet Li; Editing by Sharon Singleton).
(source: Reuters)