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Investors' expectations for the OPEC+ summit have not changed much in terms of oil prices
The price of oil futures was little changed on the day of Wednesday, as investors were cautious ahead of this week's meeting of major producers to decide output levels for August. Brent crude rose 1 cent to $67.12 a bar at 0124 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 5 cents, falling to $65.40 a bar. Analysts said that demand expectations were boosted on Tuesday by a survey conducted by the private sector, which showed that factory activity in China, world's largest oil importer, increased in June. Brent oil has fluctuated between a high and low of $68.40 and $66.34 a barrel since June 25 as fears of disruptions to supply in the Middle East region producing region have diminished. Oil prices are in a tight range, as there is less geopolitical uncertainty and more nervousness about what OPEC might do to increase production. This was said by Phil Flynn. Senior analyst at Price Futures Group. The price has been held down by the expectation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies, including Russia, will increase their crude oil production in August by a similar amount to the large increases agreed upon in May, July, and June. Four OPEC+ members told four sources last week that the group intends to increase output by 411,000 barrels a day when it meets next month on July 6. According to Kpler data, the market has already seen the effects of previous OPEC+ increases. Saudi Arabia, which is the largest oil exporter in the world, increased its shipments by 450,000 bpd in June from May. This was the highest level in over a year. According to American Petroleum Institute figures, the crude oil inventory in the U.S. has increased by 680,000 barrels over the last week. The Energy Information Administration will release official data on Wednesday, 10:30 am ET. ET. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG. He said that the non-farm payrolls numbers due Thursday will determine the timing and depth of the interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve in the second half this year. Lower interest rates would spur economic activity, which in turn would boost oil demand. Investors also watch trade negotiations in advance of the tariff deadline set by U.S. president Donald Trump on July 9. Trump said on Tuesday that he does not plan to extend the deadline. (Reporting from Sudarshan Varadahan in Singapore, Editing by Christian Schmollinger).
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India's renewable energy output increases at the fastest rate in three years
In the first half 2025, India's renewable energy output grew at its fastest rate since 2022. According to an analysis of daily load dispatch data by the federal grid regulator, renewable power output increased 24.4% from January to June 2025 to 134.43 kilowatt-hours (kWh). In June, the share of renewables (excluding hydropower) reached a new record of over 17%. India's coal-fired electricity generation fell by nearly 3% during the first half of this year, as growth in overall power output slowed down to just 1.5%. Electricity production will grow 5.8% by 2024. A milder summer, due to an earlier-than-expected monsoon, and slowing economic activity have reduced coal demand, resulting in record domestic stockpiles and lower imports by the world's second-largest consumer of the fossil fuel behind China. According to Vikram V., vice president for corporate ratings at Moody's ICRA, renewable generation in India will continue to increase. This year, India is expected to add 32 gigawatts of renewable capacity, compared to about 28 GW by 2024. Government data shows that India has added 16.3 GW in wind and solar power capacity during the five months to May. After a long slowdown, the nation of South Asia has increased its wind and solar capacity. This is after it missed its target for 2022 of 175 GW. The country now wants to reach 500 GW non-fossil energy capacity, including nuclear and hydro power by 2030. This is nearly twice the current 235.6GW. S&P Global Commodity Insights stated in a report that "we believe this target is achievable but, in our base scenario, the goal may shift to 2032". Grid modernisation and energy-storage investments are crucial to support renewable integration. (Reporting from Sudarshan varadhan and Sethuraman NR, both in Singapore; editing by Shinjini ganguli).
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US Senate budget bill cuts money for filling oil reserves
The U.S. Senate budget bill, passed on Tuesday, reduces the amount of money that can be used to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve despite the fact that President Donald Trump promised on the first day of his second term in office to fill it to "the top". Joe Biden, former president, sold 180 million barrels of SPR, the highest amount ever, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. SPR was at its lowest point in 40 years when oil imports were more important to the U.S. The budget bill reduced the amount of money available for crude oil purchases in order to replenish the SPR from $1.3 billion to $171 millions. This is only enough money to purchase about 3 million barrels, instead of the 20 million barrels that are currently available at current prices. Rapidan Energy, an energy consultancy, informed clients that funding had been affected by the Senate’s need to cut budgets elsewhere, as they softened the green energy cuts in the House version. It was not clear when the U.S. House would vote on this bill. Trump stated on Tuesday that the SPR will be filled when market conditions are favorable, but he did not specify when or how. Even scheduled oil deliveries to the SPR after Biden purchased some crude last summer are seven months behind schedule. Biden had scheduled deliveries of 15.8 million barrels to the SPR between January and May. Only 8.8 million barrels have been delivered so far to the SPR, which the Trump administration has blamed on maintenance. The Senate bill kept a measure to cancel 7 million barrels in congressionally-mandated sales. Later in the year, lawmakers could repeal further mandated sales through legislation. SPR currently has approximately 403 million barrels. This is a far cry from the 727 millions barrels that it had in 2009, when it was the largest ever. The SPR is the largest oil reserve in the world. Under Biden's leadership, the U.S. achieved record oil production. Trump wants to increase this.
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UN expert: 'Lucrative business deals' help Israel sustain its Gaza campaign
In a report, a U.N. expert named 60 companies including major arms and technology firms. She accused them of supporting Israeli settlements in Gaza and their military actions, which she referred to as a "genocidal war." Francesca Albanese is an Italian lawyer who specializes in human rights. She is the Special Rapporteur of the United Nations on the Occupied Palestinian Territories. The report was compiled based on more than 200 submissions by states, human-rights defenders and companies. The report published late on Monday calls for companies not to do business with Israel, and that executives who are implicated in alleged international law violations be held legally accountable. Albanese wrote that the 27-page report showed why Israel's genocide is continuing: it is profitable for many. She accused corporations of being "financially tied to Israel's militarism and apartheid." Israel's Geneva mission said that the report was "legally unfounded, defamatory, and a flagrant misuse of her position". The Israeli foreign ministry and prime minister's office have not responded to requests for comments. The U.S. Mission to the United Nations, New York, called on U.N. Sec.-General Antonio Guterres for a condemnation of Albanese. They also demanded her removal. Israel rejected the accusations of genocide against Gaza. It cited its right to self defense following a Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 that resulted to 1,200 deaths and 251 hostages according to Israeli statistics. Gaza Health Ministry reports that the war in Gaza, which followed, has resulted in the death of more than 56,000 individuals and the destruction of the entire enclave. Arms FIRMS Identified in Report The report divides the companies into sectors, such as military or technology. It does not always specify if the companies are involved in the Gaza campaign or settlements. The report said that 15 companies had responded directly to Albanese’s office, but they did not publish the replies. The article names Lockheed Martin, Leonardo and other arms companies as having used their weapons in Gaza. The report also names heavy machinery suppliers Caterpillar Inc. and HD Hyundai. It claims their equipment contributed to the destruction of property in Palestinian territory. "Foreign military sales are government-to-government transactions. Lockheed Martin's spokesperson said that the U.S. Government is best suited to discuss these sales. No one else responded to our requests for comment. Caterpillar previously stated that it expects to use its products in accordance with international humanitarian laws. The technology giants Alphabet (Alphabet), Amazon, Microsoft and IBM are "central to Israel’s surveillance apparatus and ongoing Gaza destruction". Alphabet has defended the $1.2 billion contract it signed with Israel's government for cloud services, saying that this was not a military or intelligence operation. Palantir Technologies also provided AI tools to Israel's military. However, specifics about their use weren't included. The report adds to a U.N. database that was last updated in 2023 and lists new companies, as well as alleged links to the Gaza conflict. The 47 members of the U.N. Human Rights Council will receive it on Thursday. The U.N. Human Rights Council does not have legal binding power, but cases that were documented through U.N. investigations often inform international prosecutions. Israel and the United States withdrew from the Council in the first half of this year citing bias towards Israel.
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Spain and the World Bank push for wider use 'debt Swaps'
The Spanish Ministry of Economy announced on Tuesday that the two countries have teamed up to "swap" debts to free money for conservation and development in poorer nations. The Ministry of Economy in Spain announced on Tuesday that the country has partnered with the World Bank to help poorer countries free up money to spend on development and conservation via debt "swaps". The Spanish government announced that the Global Hub for Debt swaps for Development will provide financial and technical assistance to countries looking at debt swaps for climate change and food security. In recent years, nations from Barbados to Belize and Ecuador to Ivory Coast used debt swaps. They bought back expensive bonds or loans and secured refinancing agreements with lower rates. In recent years, debt-for nature swaps have accounted for $6 billion in transactions where a country reduces its debt in exchange of a promise to invest in conservation. In recent years, development banks have played a key role in reducing the cost of swapped loans and generating savings. They do this by providing insurance or guaranteeing the risk. Critics claim that such deals are time-consuming and complicated, and this has hindered a wider adoption of an important tool for helping countries reduce their debt burdens and tackle development issues. Carlos Cuerpo, Spain's Minister of Economy, Trade, and Business, stated that many countries have made it clear they need tools to make debt swaps easier, faster, and more accessible. The Hub will receive 3 million euros (3,54 million dollars) from Spain. World Bank President Ajay Banaga said that the Hub would be a host for a "multiple-partner trust fund" to finance technical assistance. TIMELY This push is timely for the debt-swap market, amid fears that U.S. support for these deals - especially those with a focus on climate or nature - may largely dry up under Donald Trump. Ilan Goldfajn, President of the Inter-American Development Bank, said that demand for broad development swaps is still strong. He made this statement at a press conference held in Seville, on Tuesday. IDB backed five out of nine of the largest debt-for nature swaps in the past, most of which were carried out with the United States International Development Finance Corporation. Goldfajn stated, "We're getting requests for debts for education and debts for health." These are things which have been in construction. "Let's see what they become." A group of conservation groups and investors, as well as development bankers, lawyers, and other professionals who have been at the forefront of the market's growth, published a guide on best practices for nature swaps in an attempt to encourage wider adoption. The guide included information on how and who to use debt swaps. Melissa Garvey said that debt swaps are now "a proven model for financing conservation at scale."
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South America is shivering in the cold as Europe sizzles
While Europe and North America suffer through heatwaves, South America is experiencing a similar extreme weather event at the opposite end: a sudden freezing snap. On Tuesday morning, residents of Buenos Aires bundled up in scarves and wore wooly hats as they sipped warm drinks while frost covered cars. The temperatures in the city fell below zero. This is a rare occurrence, even during the winter in the Southern Hemisphere which is now underway and runs in opposition to the seasons in the Northern Hemisphere. Juan Manuel Amnini wore a gray hat with a wool face cover to protect himself from the cold. You can cover yourself with anything you have. "I'm like an onion, wearing layers upon layers of clothing." Meanwhile, in Europe, Italy has banned outdoor work from certain areas while France closed schools and a part of the Eiffel tower. Spain has confirmed that it had its hottest ever June as a severe heatwave gripped Europe and triggered widespread health warnings. Authorities in Barcelona were investigating whether the death of an street sweeper at the weekend was due to heat. Since late June, temperatures have consistently been high in the northern and central swaths of the United States. There have been heat warnings issued in large areas. This is part of a pattern that has been linked to climate changes, with temperatures rising earlier and lasting for longer. The impact of asphalt and concrete in urban areas is amplified by their ability to absorb and radiate heat. The cold snap in Argentina, as well as Chile and Uruguay's neighbors, led to snowfall in unexpected places. Chilly winds from Antarctica blew south. Residents said that many homes and offices weren't built to withstand these conditions. Gael Larrosa, a student from Buenos Aires, said: "Right Now, I have a thermal under my clothes, a couple of trousers and another pair on top." I have a hard time with cold. The cold here kills, and it kills. Reporting by TV, writing by Adam Jourdan. Cynthia Osterman is the editor.
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Powell's comments and data gauged the impact of Powell's comments on US yields, stock prices, and US stocks.
Investors weighed the latest economic data from the United States and remarks by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell in order to determine when interest rates will be cut. Powell said at a central bank conference in Sintra that he couldn't say whether July would be too soon for a rate reduction, but "it will depend on the data and we are going from meeting to meeting." According to CME's FedWatch Tool the market expectations for a rate cut in July briefly increased to 21,2%, up from 18,6% in the previous session. However, they then declined to 19,1%. The Dow Jones rose about 1% on Wall Street but the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq remained in check after reaching record levels Monday. This was partly due to a nearly 6% increase in Tesla following President Donald Trump's threat to stop the federal subsidies worth billions that Elon Musk’s companies receive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 427.24, or 0.99%, to 44,522.63. The S&P 500 increased 1.03, or 0.02% to 6,206.19. And the Nasdaq Composite dropped 107.68, or 0.5%, to 20,262.06. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 0.32 points, or 0.03% to 918.21, while the pan-European STOXX 600 closed down 0.21%. Concerns over the impact of the tariffs on the global economy were reignited as the deadline of July 9 by Trump drew closer. The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing was still in contraction in June. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that the number of openings had increased by 374,000, to 7.769 millions, on the last day in May. However, a decrease in hiring suggested the market might have slowed. Brian Jacobsen is the chief economist of Annex Wealth Management, a company in Menomonee falls, Wisconsin. "Despite a big jump in job openings, the economy remains stuck in Powell's equilibrium, which says, 'no fire, no hire'. It's not an equilibrium that is stable and, if you look at the ISM Manufacturing data for the summer, it may be the case that the job market will become weaker. Investors are closely watching the key government payrolls data due out on Thursday, a day sooner than usual because of the Independence Day holiday. This report will help to shape their expectations about rate cuts by the Fed. After the data, U.S. Treasury rates reversed their course and moved higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes rose 2.9 basis points to 4,255%. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates from the Federal Reserve (usually based on their forecasts), rose by 6.2 basis points, to 3.783%. Trump's tax-cut and spending legislation continued its advance, as the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate passed by the thinnest of margins, and now heads back to the House of Representatives for final approval. "It will create some problems for fixed income markets as we continue spending no matter which party in power is in office, and that, in the end, is a negative for stock market," Rick Meckler said, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments, in New Vernon, New Jersey. Investors are not worried about inflation and continue to purchase stocks. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) is on course to end an eight-session streak of declines. The euro fell 0.03% to $1.1782, while the pound fell 0.01% at $1.3732. The dollar fell 0.26% against the Japanese yen to 143.63. The Bank of Japan Tankan Index of Business Sentiment showed that the largest economies in the region are likely to be holding up despite tariffs. A separate survey of the private sector revealed that the manufacturing sector in Japan expanded for the first time since 13 months in June. U.S. crude oil rose by 0.4% to $65.37 per barrel. Brent was up to $67.05 a barrel, a 0.46% increase on the day.
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Stellantis could close its factories as a result of EU fines on carbon emissions
The head of Stellantis' European operations, a Franco-Italian company, said that the automaker may be forced to shut down factories as he fears hefty fines from the European Union for failing to meet CO2 emissions targets. As part of the EU's effort to curb the devastating effects of climate changes, European auto manufacturers must sell more electric cars to reduce CO2 emissions. Otherwise, they risk being penalized. The automaker industry successfully lobbied to extend the deadline for compliance, so that fines are based on emissions in 2025-2027 and not just 2025. Jean-Philippe Imparato, the Europe Chief of Stellantis, said that automakers were not able to reach their targets and his company could be fined up to 2,95 billion euros in "two-three" years. He said, at a conference held in the lower chamber of the parliament in Rome, that if there are no significant changes to the regulatory environment by the end this year, then "we will be forced to take tough decisions." Imparato explained that Stellantis's fleet would have to be re-energy by switching to electric vehicles rather than petrol or diesel. This is not possible, as Stellantis either has to double the sales of electric vehicles (which is impossible) or reduce the production of petrol/diesel vehicles. "I have only two options: either I push hard (on electric vehicles) or I shut down ICEs (internal-combustion engine vehicles). "I close factories," he said at one point, mentioning Atessa's Italian van plant.
US auto tariffs threaten global industry with higher prices and job losses
The announcement by Donald Trump of a 25% auto import tariff sent shockwaves around the globe on Thursday. Global carmakers warned that prices would rise immediately, and dealers expressed concern about job losses in large auto-exporting nations, including many U.S. allies.
The new tariffs are expected to lead to a second round of large-scale U.S. duties that will be imposed next week. The auto tariffs could increase the cost of an average vehicle by thousands of dollars in the U.S., and dampen demand further at a moment when the industry is already struggling with the transition to electric vehicles. The majority of auto stocks fell on Thursday. Tesla, the U.S. electric vehicle maker, was an exception.
Volkswagen, a German company, said in a press release that "the entire automotive industry will be affected by the consequences. This includes global supply chains as well as companies and customers."
According to GlobalData, the United States imports more cars than any other country in the world, including Canada and Mexico. GlobalData, a research firm, estimates that nearly half of the cars sold in America last year were imported. General Motors shares fell by nearly 7% Thursday afternoon. Ford Motors and Stellantis, which is listed in the United States, also saw a decline of about 3%. Tesla's shares rose by about 5% as Elon Musk’s company is more exposed to tariffs.
Barclays analysts wrote in a report that Trump's tariffs would have a more draconian impact than expected.
The U.S. United Auto Workers and other supporters of Trump's initiatives say that the United States should focus on increasing domestic production. However, the process of moving the facilities could take many years during which time costs would rise and production might drop. The American Automotive Policy Council (which represents the Detroit Three automobile manufacturers) said late Wednesday that the "U.S. Automakers" are committed to Trump's vision to increase automotive production and create jobs in the U.S., and that they will continue to collaborate with the Administration to develop durable policies that benefit Americans.
The AAPC said that it was "critical" to implement the tariffs in a manner that avoided price increases for consumers.
Dealers and consumers may not see any major shortages for some time. Cox Automotive's data shows that dealers had 89 days worth of inventory on their lots at the beginning of March. Some consumers are trying to get their purchases in before the prices begin to increase.
TURMOIL FOR GLOBAL AUTO COMPANIES Europe’s auto industry has called for a deal across the Atlantic to avoid tariffs. Volkswagen, BMW Mercedes-Benz Porsche and Continental all lost $5.93 billion in market value combined on Thursday. The automakers will have to decide whether they want to move more production to the U.S. or absorb the tariff costs. Volvo Cars and Mercedes-Benz, as well as Volkswagen's Audi, Hyundai, and Mercedes-Benz, have all already announced that they would move production. Ferrari, which produces all its cars in Italy will raise prices by up to 10% for some models. Valeo, a French auto parts supplier, said that it had no choice but to raise prices.
BLG Group in Germany, the port logistics provider of one of the busiest auto shipping ports in the world in Bremerhaven said that it planned for a 15% decrease in traffic due to the tariffs. The tariffs will be implemented on April 3 for cars and auto parts, respectively.
HITS TO U.S. MANUFACTURING
Since the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement that encouraged the development a highly integrated automotive supply chain between U.S.A., Canada, and Mexico, automakers in North America enjoy free trade status. Trump's revised U.S. Mexico-Canada Agreement 2020 imposed new rules in order to encourage regional content production.
Cox Automotive stated that the tariffs would have an immediate effect on production. Cox Automotive expects to see disruption in "virtually" all North American vehicle production by mid-April. This will result in a reduction of roughly 20,000 vehicles per day or 30%.
The White House stated that Trump's tariffs will "protect and strengthen" the U.S. auto industry more than previous deals. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada early in March. He then granted a one-month respite for vehicles that met the USMCA's terms. However, the new rules don't extend this.
The White House announced that importers of vehicles made in North America will be able to certify the U.S. component of their vehicle to avoid paying taxes on these components.
Some CEOs privately express a reluctance in making long-term decisions based on a policy that could be short-term, stating a market decline could make Trump change his mind.
Analysts at Bernstein Research stated that "we know the president views the Dow Jones as a barometer of success." It is difficult to gauge the duration of these policies, if they cause a market crash that doesn't appear to be temporary.
(source: Reuters)