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China export restrictions push European bismuth price to highest level since 2008.
Prices of bismuth in Europe are at their highest level in 17 years, after China's plans to restrict exports sparked fears that the metal would be scarce. Bismuth is used in medicine, cosmetics and nuclear research. In response to the new tariffs levied by U.S. president Donald Trump, China announced earlier this month that it would implement export restrictions on five metals critical -- tungsten tellurium molybdenum bismuth and indium. The European spot market for bismuth has risen to between $12 and 18 per lb this week. This is the highest price since May 2008. Bismuth prices are expected to rise, traders say. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, China produced approximately 13,000 tons of bismuth in the past year. This is over 80% the global supply. Rest of the rest is from Japan, South Korea, and Laos. The traders claim that the other countries are not as available as China. A trader in Europe stated that "we have received many inquiries both from our EU and U.S. clients." He added that U.S. consumer would be more vulnerable to the trade war between China and the United States if it escalates. According to the USGS, since 1997 when it stopped producing primary refined bismuth, the U.S. is heavily dependent on imports. Jost Wubeke, Managing Director at Sinolytics, stated that if the U.S. were to be completely cut off from Chinese supplies of bismuth, production outside China would need to increase by 22% in order to meet demand. It is difficult to find stable and cheap alternatives, especially if everyone is trying to find them at the same time. China will likely use its dominant position in minerals that are critical to the economy to respond to trade tensions.
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Eneos and Mitsubishi move forward with sustainable aviation fuel at Japan's Wakayama
Eneos Corp., Japan's largest refiner and trading house Mitsubishi Corp., said that they will move forward on front-end engineering designs (FEEDs) for sustainable aircraft fuel (SAFs) production at Wakayama. From fiscal year 2028, the plant will produce approximately 300,000 metric tonnes (400,000 kilolitres), of SAF, as well as some fractions of light oil and naphtha. The feedstock will be primarily waste products and byproducts such as used cooking oils and tallow. In a joint press release, the two companies said they would accelerate their discussions in order to create a system of mass production and supply for SAF produced domestically. The companies will combine Eneos’ expertise in manufacturing technologies, raw material procurement, and sales network, with Mitsubishi’s expertise in SAF-raw-material sourcing, both in Japan as well as overseas. Eneos Holdings' Eneos unit, Eneos Eneos said that the Industry Ministry selected the Wakayama Project for a public solicited initiative in order to support the expansion and supply of SAF. Eneos refused to reveal the amount of the subsidy. The two companies announced on Friday that SAF projects from Idemitsu Kosan, Cosmo Energy Holdings and other companies were also included in the initiative. (Reporting and editing by Yuka Obayashi, Janane Venkatraman).
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Asia Gold Record prices dampen the demand in top hubs
The physical gold demand in China and India, the two largest consumers of gold, was negligible last week due to record-high prices. "Buyers just sit back and watch the price movements." "They're sitting on the sidelines and hoping to jump into the market once prices drop," said a jeweller in Kolkata. This week, the domestic gold price hit a new record of 86.592 rupees per 10 grams. It has risen by more than 12% in 2025 compared to a 21% increase last year. This week, Indian dealers offered a discount Up to $35 per ounce over official domestic price, inclusive of 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes, an increase from the $26 discount last week. A Mumbai-based dealer from a bullion import bank stated that the wedding season has begun, but there is a lackluster retail demand. Gold jewellery is a very popular gift for guests and family members at weddings in India. In China, gold is sold between $1 and $3 per ounce below spot prices. Independent analyst Ross Norman stated that "the record prices have led to a significant weakening of jewellery sales (in China), with the sector in a doldrums." Customs data revealed that gold exports to India and China from Switzerland fell by 88% and 95%, respectively, on an annualized basis. In Singapore, dealers quoted a premium The price ranges from $3-$4 an ounce. Hong Kong dealers charged $2.20 premium per ounce. . Bullion was traded in Japan A discount of $5 is worth more than a premium of $1.5. A trader in Japan said: "We've seen a rise in buying interest, but the volume of profit-taking is increasing." One trader stated that many people were buying bullion this week because the Japanese yen is strong.
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EDF's core earnings fall on lower electricity costs
The French power giant EDF announced a decline in its annual core earnings Friday. This was due to lower electricity prices, despite higher power production from its nuclear fleet. In 2024, the state-owned electric company reported a core profit of 36.65 billion euros ($38.28billion), down from 39.9 bn euros a year before. The company said that its net debt in 2024 would remain at 54.3 billion euro, despite the huge debt it has accumulated as a result previous years of maintenance on its nuclear reactors. EDF, the state-owned company that runs Europe's biggest nuclear fleet, reported a net profit of 11.4 billion euros in 2023, up from 10 billion. This was due to a reduction in impairment charges for Britain's long delayed Hinkley Point C Project. EDF wants to build six nuclear reactors in France over the next few years, but it hasn't yet secured financing. The French Court of Auditors recommended last month that the company not make a final decision on investment until the designs are finalized and the financing is secured. The CEO Luc Remont said to journalists that the work is ongoing to refine the estimated costs of the project. A final investment decision will be made in the second half 2026.
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London aluminium lingers near eight-month high
London's aluminium prices were near an eight-month high on Friday, as traders assessed their concerns about the European Union's envoys agreement to ban Russian imports of primary aluminium in the sanctions package. As of 0638 GMT the price for three-month aluminium at the London Metal Exchange was unchanged, $2,722 per metric ton. It had earlier reached its highest level since 2024. After reports that the European Union supported a ban on Russian Metal, aluminum led the sector to rise. "EU Ambassadors have agreed to implement a new package of sanctions" against the main supplier, said Daniel Hynes. EU diplomats reported that EU envoys agreed Wednesday on a 16th set of sanctions against Russia. This included a ban on the import of primary aluminium, a sale of gaming consoles, and a list of 73 shadow vessels. The U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he will announce new tariffs in the next month, or even sooner. He said he plans to add lumber and forest products, as well as previous plans on duties for imported cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. According to our opinion, Trump's tariffs will reduce demand growth. ANZ says that aggressive import tariffs could weigh on capex growth, as business confidence would remain low. Amid the ongoing tariff war and the concerns over a slowing demand, the focus will be on China. LME copper dropped 0.7% to $9.499.5. Nickel fell 1.3% to $15.455. Tin fell 0.2% at $33,325. Zinc eased 0.5% at $2.904.5. Lead firmed up 0.5% to $1.996.5. The price of SHFE aluminium increased by 0.1%, to 20,805 Chinese yuan ($2,870.09) per ton. SHFE copper dropped 0.5%, to 77,000 yuan. SHFE zinc fell 0.1%, to 23,940, and nickel fell 0.7%, to 123770, while lead rose 0.2%, to 17,080, and tin climbed 1.1%, to 263,730. $1 = 7.2489 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu, Rashmi, and Janane Venkatraman in Bengaluru)
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Gold and Asia's shares rise for the eighth consecutive weekly gain
The Asian share market reached a new three-month high on Friday, as investors returned to Chinese stocks that were previously not popular due to the optimism surrounding artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, the U.S. exceptionalism narrative has continued to lose its luster. Gold was hovering near its record high, and it looked set to continue its gains for the eighth week in a row. Gold was boosted by flows to safe-haven assets due to fears over Donald Trump's threats to impose tariffs and during contentious discussions as the U.S. President pushes to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict quickly. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose more than 1% on Friday to its highest level since November 8, putting it on track for the sixth consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak of over two years. The move was a result from a surge of Hong Kong and China listed stocks. The Hang Seng Index reached a three-year high and pushed the CSI300 Index 1% higher. Hong Kong's technology shares rose 4.7% while the Shanghai Composite Index increased 0.7%. Chinese stocks are on fire in recent days. DeepSeek’s AI breakthrough has reignited interest among investors in China’s technological capabilities. The Hang Seng Tech Index is up nearly 30% this year, while the S&P 500 has only gained 4%. Brian Arcese is the portfolio manager of Foord Asset Management. Earlier this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with some of China's biggest names in the technology sector. He encouraged them to "show off their talent" as well as be confident in China's market and model. "I believe that's a change in China." "These things are done with a purpose, the only thing that comes out of this meeting is that we have met... but it's a big message, you don’t do that lightly," Arcese said. The markets in Europe, however, were set to start on a gloomy note. EUROSTOXX futures fell 0.11%, while FTSE futures eased 0.08%. Nasdaq Futures fell 0.07% while S&P500 futures dropped 0.09%. DeepSeek’s breakthrough not only has investors refocusing their attention on China but also causing them to re-evaluate their positions in U.S. mega-cap technology stocks that are currently trading at a much higher valuation than their Chinese counterparts. Walmart's depressing forecast for Thursday, the largest retailer in the world, also stoked fears about the future of the largest economy. The U.S. economic growth narrative is beginning to crack, according to Tony Sycamore. Japan's Nikkei climbed 0.17%. DOLLAR EASES The threat of additional import duties by Trump continues to cast a pall on markets. However, traders have also woken up to the reality that his tariff bluster at the beginning of his second term was mostly empty. Dollar was heading for its third consecutive weekly loss as bulls, who had built large long positions in anticipation a trade conflict, have pulled back while Trump is ambiguous about tariffs. On Thursday, several Federal Reserve officials said that they were taking note of the rising inflation risks they perceive and of the uncertain impact Trump's immigration, trade and other policies may have. The dollar's weakness has left sterling at its highest level in two months at $1.2674. Meanwhile, the euro is stable at $1.0493 before a weekend German election. The yen fell by 0.5%, to 150.35 dollars, after comments from Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda, which eased fears that the central banks may consider a more aggressive stance on rate hikes. The data released on Friday shows that Japan's core consumer price inflation reached 3.2% in January. This is the highest rate in 19 months. Alvin Tan is the head of Asia FX Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. He said that "the data support a growing market conviction" of a BOJ interest rate hike in July and possibly a third by year's end. Oil prices dropped but are headed to a weekly increase. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.21%, to $76.32 per barrel. However, they were on track to gain more than 2% in the coming week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 0.22% at $72.32, and was on course for a weekly increase of more than 2%.
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Oil gains weekly amid improved demand and supply concerns
The oil prices were stable on Friday, and are expected to rise by a significant amount this week due to an improved outlook for the demand in China and the United States. The price of oil was also supported by concerns over disruptions to supply in Russia. Brent futures fell 3 cents, to $76.45 a barrel by 0414 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was down 4 cents at $72.44. Both indexes gained more than 2% in the past week, marking their largest weekly gains since early January. Brent will be marking its second week of gains following three weeks of declines. WTI will have its first positive week after four consecutive weeks of declines. JPMorgan analysts stated in a Friday note that the global oil demand averaged 103.4 millions barrels per daily (bpd). This is an increase of 1.4 million bpd. The coming week will see increased demand due to cold weather in China and an increase in industrial activity as Chinese people return from their holidays. The Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday that the U.S. crude stockpiles increased while gasoline and distillate stocks fell due to seasonal maintenance at refineries, which led to a lower processing. Toshitaka Takawa, an analyst with Fujitomi Securities, said that the oil price is supported by both the drawdown of U.S. gasoline stocks and concerns about tight supply in Russia. The hardened stance of Ukraine has led some investors to buy into the market. The Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy was furious earlier this week at U.S. and Russian attempts to negotiate a deal without Kyiv, and Donald Trump's comments blaming Ukraine as the cause of the three-year conflict with Moscow. Zelenskiy, however, said that after a meeting on Thursday with Trump's representative for the Ukraine conflict, Ukraine was prepared to work quickly in order to reach a solid agreement with the United States on security and investments. U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said on Bloomberg Television that Russia may be able to get some relief from U.S. Sanctions if it is willing to negotiate a ceasefire in its war with Ukraine. Despite the disruptions in oil supply, prices continued to rise. Russia reported that oil flow through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which is a major route used for exporting crude oil from Kazakhstan, was reduced by 30-40% after an attack by a Ukrainian drone on a pumping facility on Tuesday. Industry sources reported on Thursday that Kazakhstan had pumped record oil volumes in spite of damage to its main route for export via Russia (the Caspian Pipeline Consortium). It wasn't immediately clear how Kazakhstan was able to pump such high volumes. Reporting by Yuka Obaashi in Tokyo, and Siyi Lu in Singapore. Editing by Sonali Paul & Edwin Gibbs
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Investors prefer German midcaps over bluechips on recovery bets
Investors who are betting on the German economy recovering, supported by a fiscal boost post-election and the possibility of a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, have piled into midcap stocks in Germany, which could prove to be the best long-term performers. The MDAX is a better barometer of any economic recovery spurred on by Sunday's elections than the internationally oriented DAX, which has soared this year due to the success of global companies like software maker SAP that are not as affected by domestic economic problems. If the outlook for the economy improves, which it is expected to do if the economy shrinks for the second consecutive year in 2024, the MDAX could outperform its benchmark. According to estimates by Deutsche, the midcap index tracks companies such as conglomerate Thyssenkrupp and chemicals maker Lanxess. It also includes defence firm Hensoldt, meal-kit company Hellofresh, and has a revenue exposure of 28% in Germany, compared to the DAX’s 20%. Andrea Scauri, portfolio manager at Lemanik, said that he increased his MDAX investment six-fold before the election. This was done partly by using derivatives and buying direct stocks. He said: "If the German elections result in a positive outcome that results in a greater deficit, then the MDAX is going to soar literally." "Its performance has been abysmal." Markets would be favourable to a conservative coalition government if populist parties failed to achieve a blocking majority of one third. The MDAX is down around 18% since Russia invaded Ukraine 2022, which drove energy prices higher. The DAX, however, has risen by 46%. This suggests that there may be a potential for catching up. The bet does not come without risk. Enrico Vaccari is the head of institutional sales for Consultinvest, in Milan. He said that the market had gotten ahead of itself by expecting a new government to be formed after the elections with a more lenient fiscal policy. Roger Peeters is a managing partner of fund advisory firm pfp Advisory, based in Frankfurt. He is cautious and says it's too early to search for profiteers in Ukraine. He said that "even peace, let alone ceasefire, wouldn't necessarily mean old trade relationships would be revived." Goldman Sachs said that if the German elections or the talks about Ukraine fail to deliver, the already bullish options positioning could limit the upside. The U.S. Bank said that certain cyclical European stocks, like the MDAX which tends to do well when the economy is growing, are still attractive for hedging upside risks. The MDAX is dominated by the industrials and chemicals sectors, which should be able to benefit from the recovery of the economy and the falling energy prices. Together, they represent a third of its weight. Relative valuations look attractive. LSEG Datastream's forward PE metric shows that midcaps trade at a discount of 2.4% to the DAX. Historically, they traded at a premium.
Donald Trump's trade threats and tariffs
Since Donald Trump returned to office in the United States last month, he has imposed numerous tariffs on imported goods and threatened to do so more frequently.
These can be broad - such as a tariff on all imported goods from abroad - or targeted at certain sectors, countries, or regions to try and get them to comply with his demands.
Trump's threats are constantly changing, and other nations and businessmen are unsure of what to expect next.
Here's a summary of Trump’s threats and actions in relation to trade.
BROAD TARIFFS
Trump's vision is based on a gradual rollout of tariffs that will apply to all U.S. imported goods.
Last week, Trump asked his economics team to devise plans for reciprocal duties on all countries that tax U.S. imports. They also had to address non-tariff barriers, such as vehicle safety regulations that exclude U.S. automobiles and value added taxes that raise their costs.
In recent decades, tariffs have been reduced to a small fraction of U.S. taxes. Economists claim that Trump's policies are inflationary, as businesses who import goods and pay tariffs will pass on the costs to consumers.
Global trading partners may impose counter-tariffs on U.S. agricultural and energy exports. This could lead to a global trade war that would create uncertainty for investors and businesses.
Specific COUNTRIES
Trump's tariff proposals are aimed at several key trading partners.
MEXICO AND CANADA : Mexico and Canada were the two largest trading partners with the U.S. from 2024 to November. Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on imports coming from Mexico and Canada, which will go into effect February 4, as a retaliation against migration and drug trafficking.
Trump postponed the tariffs until March 1, pending further negotiations with these two countries.
Canada exports mainly crude oil, other energy products and cars and auto parts as part the North American automotive manufacturing chain. Mexico exports a variety of goods to the U.S., including industrial and automotive products.
CHINA: Trump has imposed a tariff of 10% on China in order to keep his promise. China announced that it would begin levying levies against some U.S. products on Monday. In Trump's initial term, both countries were involved in a lengthy trade war which hurt their economies.
Trump has said that the EU, and other countries, have alarming trade surpluses. He said that the products of the other countries will be subject to tariffs, or he would demand they purchase more oil and natural gas from the U.S. despite the fact that U.S. export capacity for gas is close to its limit.
In a statement released on 14 February, the European Commission stated that the "reciprocal trade policy" was a step backwards.
RUSSIA: Trump threatened to hit Russia and "other participating countries" with tariffs, taxes and sanctions if an agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine was not reached soon.
INDIA/BRICS NATIONS : Indian Prime Minister Narendra modi met with Trump last week in Washington and offered to discuss easing tariffs and buying more U.S. gas, oil and combat aircraft. He also suggested possible concessions.
India is the largest trading partner of the United States and imposes the most tariffs.
Trump threatened to impose tariffs on the BRICS nations if they didn't agree not to create a new currency.
COLOMBIA - Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on Colombian products after the country refused flights with migrants who were to be deported by the U.S. The two sides reached an agreement.
PRODUCTS
Trump said on Sunday that he would impose tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum used by automakers and aerospace companies as well as in construction and infrastructure.
According to World Bank statistics, the U.S. imports more aluminum than any other country in the world. According to the International Trade Administration, it has been running a steel trade deficit for over a decade. The International Trade Administration reports that it is the world's second-largest steel importer, with over half of its volumes coming from Canada.
SEMICONDUCTORS : Trump stated that tariffs would start at "25%" or more, and increase substantially over a period of one year. However, he did not specify when they will be implemented.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world's biggest contract chipmaker, produces semiconductors for Nvidia and Apple, among other U.S. customers, and 70% of its revenues in 2024 will come from North American clients.
PHARMACEUTICALS : Imposing tariffs of 25% or more on pharmaceuticals imported could be a burden on Japan. This is the home to major drugmakers like Takeda Astellas Daiichi Sankyo Eisai and Takeda.
India will also be a part of the future
Be impacted
As most generic drugmakers in the U.S. count it as their biggest market, exports to that country account for 31% of all the industry's exports.
Trump announced that levies for automobiles could be implemented as early as April 2. For example, the European Union collects a duty of 10% on imported vehicles, which is four times higher than the 2.5% U.S. tariff rate for passenger cars. The U.S. charges a 25% duty on pickup trucks imported from other countries than Mexico and Canada.
Trump also floated the idea that tariffs of up to 100% would be imposed on other vehicles including EVs. In 2024, the automobile industry will account for more than $200 billion in imports from Canada and Mexico. (Reporting and editing by Maju Sam, Lincoln Feast, and Sriraj Kalluvila in Bengaluru.
(source: Reuters)