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Gold drops to a two-month low due to inflation driven by war fueling rate hike bets

Gold prices fell to a 2-month low on Tuesday, "pressured" by expectations of tighter monetary policies to combat rising inflation and the fact that there is no end to the Iran war. As of 10:30 am EDT (1430 GMT), spot gold was down by 1.4% to $4,444.64 an ounce. It had fallen earlier in the day to its lowest price since March 27. U.S. Gold futures for June delivery dropped 1.2% to $4445.20. The Middle East continues to have the biggest impact. "There was a lingering optimism, but that optimism is fading as the conflict continues," said Peter Grant. He added that inflation fears are being heightened by the ongoing conflict. Since the beginning of the U.S. and Israeli?war against Iran, the price of gold has been on the rise. Brent crude prices have risen dramatically since the Strait of Hormuz was closed, which has led to inflation worries and rate hike expectations.

Iranian state TV reported Wednesday that Tehran would restore shipping in the Strait to its pre-war level within a month as part of a framework agreement with the U.S. This deal also included the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iran's proximity. After this report, gold prices briefly recovered some of their losses. The market is still predicting energy-driven inflation, which will lead the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase its overnight benchmark interest rate by 25 basis point by the end this year. Gold is not a good inflation hedge in high-rate environments. Neel Kazhkari, Minneapolis Fed President, said that the U.S. central bank must concentrate on containing inflationary risk which appears to be increasing. However it is "far too early" to predict when they could change their current policy rate. Investors await U.S. Investors await the Personal Consumption Spending data due Thursday for clues on the direction of monetary policy.

Silver spot fell by 2.8%, to $74.82 an ounce.

Bank of America said in a Tuesday note that a gold rally could push'silver back above $100/oz. However, we do not expect silver to outpace 'on a sustainable basis because of a softer fundamental demand.

Palladium rose 0.4% to $1,384.86 and platinum fell 2%.

(source: Reuters)