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Indian shares fall as crude prices rise
Indian?shares dropped in the morning trade of Wednesday as rising 'oil prices' and caution before local and U.S.?inflation?data hit sentiment. As of 10:05 a.m. IST, the Nifty '50 fell 0.43% to?24366.40, and the BSE Sensex fell 0.42%, dropping to 77827.31. 13 of 16 major sectors posted losses. Small-caps and midcaps both fell by 0.3%. Sunny Agrawal is the head of fundamental research for SBI Securities. She said, "Market sentiment remains subdued due to elevated crude prices which keep investors cautious." Oil was hovering around $90 per barrel as the hopes of a possible deal that would bring stability to the Middle East, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, faded. India is the world's third largest oil importer. The Nifty Metal Index rose by 0.5% as global aluminium prices reached a seven-week peak?on supply concerns in the Gulf and reduced inventories. Aluminum producers Hindalco & National Aluminium led the way, with a rise of?2.5% & 7.3% respectively. State-owned banks increased by 1.8% following a flat closing in the previous session, and a decline of 1.7% on Monday. Godrej Consumer Products fell nearly 9.4% following the abrupt departure of Sudhir Sitapati as its chief executive just a few months after he was reappointed. The consumer index fell 0.8% as a result. After the close of the market, domestic?inflation figures could provide clues about how higher crude oil prices and a weaker monsoon will affect?the economy. The Federal Reserve may make future rate decisions based on the consumer inflation data that will be released later today and the producer price data this week. Individual stocks like footwear maker Bata India rose?3.5% following a 23% increase in profit year-over-year for the June quarter. Zydus Lifesciences, a drug?maker, lost 2.6% during the market hours of?Tuesday after it reported a drop in profit for the quarter ending June. The stock gained?6.4% the previous session. Jefferies flagged U.S. Drug regulator's observations made at a facility as a potential risk to FY2028 earning. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Harikrishnan Nair and Vivek Kumar M)
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Hot spots sizzle and CPI looms
Rocky Swift gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Global flash 'points' tried to steal the limelight from an U.S. inflation report, which could set the tone of the September Fed meeting. Houthis launched a deadly attack on an Egyptian ship in the Red Sea, with no end to the war in Iran in sight. North Korea launched another ballistic missile in the ocean and Taiwan protested China’s planned naval exercises off the east coast of the island. Brent crude prices have risen for six straight sessions, the longest run since late April. This shows that central banks are under increasing pressure to control energy-driven inflation. Reserve Bank of Australia held policy rates at a 'hawkish level' on Tuesday. Traders are betting that the Bank of Japan will tighten up again as early as next month. Money?markets are showing a 50/50 chance of an increase. According to a survey, U.S. consumer price index is expected to have risen 0.1% in July after dropping 0.4% in June. The annual CPI inflation rate is expected to drop to 3.4%, down from 3.5% one month ago. The data comes after a poor miss on U.S. Payrolls last Friday. It highlights the?narrow way for Fed officials to balance support for the economy with keeping inflation under control. The Fed rate outlook will have a significant impact on currencies. The yen has given up a lot of its gains. The yen fell?to 159.45 a dollar in Asian trade. This is the lowest since Japan and the U.S. coordinated their intervention to boost the currency up to 155.2 last week. Futures indicate a slight lower opening in European markets. The Euro Stoxx 50 contracts for the entire region are down by 0.06%. German DAX Futures were 0.08% down, while FTSE Futures fell 0.25%. ?U.S. Stock futures and the S&P500 e-minis were up by 0.11%. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday: --July CPI for the U.S. and Germany --Q2 results from Bechtle AG Sampo Oyj ABN Amro Bank N.V. The United Kingdom RICS housing survey for July (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam in Tokyo)
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Copper prices rise ahead of US inflation data due to supply fears
Investors prepared to analyze key U.S. Inflation data, as a temporary closure at a major Indonesian Smelter increased the pressure on global red metal stock prices. Benchmark three-month Copper on the?London Metal Exchange rose 0.18% to $14,182 per metric ton at 0300 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract edged up 0.26% to 108240 yuan (16,044.83) per ton. The biggest metal consumer in China showed signs of a lower physical demand, which capped gains. Freeport Indonesia halted operations at its Smelting Gresik division for repairs. This added pressure to copper stocks. The LME's copper inventory has fallen to its lowest level since January, as traders try to beat potential tariffs by shipping the metal into the U.S. The?Yangshan Copper Premium The price of a ton of imported?copper fell from $115 per ton to $99 on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate policy in the near future. Traders will closely monitor the U.S. consumer price inflation data, which is due out later today. Aluminium, on the other hand, was also set to increase for an eighth consecutive day, supported by lower stocks and continued supply concerns. It was up by 0.18% on the LME but down from its seven-week high. Norsk Hydro announced that it had cut output to 50% at the Alunorte refinery. The SHFE light metal index rose by 1.01%, reaching its highest level in almost 10 weeks. Nickel added?0.18%, and tin rose 0.12%. Zinc gained 0.51% among SHFE metals. Lead gained 0.28%. Nickel dropped 0.11%. Tin gained 0.79%.
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As geopolitical tensions increase, oil and gold prices are rising before CPI
As geopolitical tensions increased ahead of the key U.S. inflation data. The yen has been mostly flat against the US dollar. Its gains have been largely unwinded following rare interventions in the currency markets by Japan. North Korea launched a missile early in the morning, which shook Asia. The markets remained 'focused' on the U.S. Consumer Price Index data in the afternoon session to see if it would signal a possible Federal Reserve rate increase. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial analyst at Capital.com. He wrote that "market sentiment is lukewarm amid lingering geopolitical risks and as market players head to U.S. CPI statistics." He added that the lack of substantive news and progress in the talks, coupled with Iran's reaffirmation of its commitment to control the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices on the rise, while U.S. indexes are on hold. U.S. crude climbed 0.89%, to $83.94 per barrel. Brent rose to $89.60 a barrel. Both were up 0.78% for the day. Both benchmarks closed more than $1 higher on Wednesday, their highest closing since July 31, and continuing gains after a 5% jump on Monday. Spot gold rose 0.46%, to $4387.03 per ounce. MSCI's broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei stock gauge, the benchmark for Japan's market, traded flat after a long holiday. The Yemeni transport ministry reported that four crew members of a ship owned by Egypt were killed during an attack on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the U.S. army said they had struck a container vessel attempting to sail towards an Iranian port. This would be the first Houthi strike on shipping since February 28, when the Iran War began. The war is not ending, despite the repeated claims of U.S. president Donald Trump that a deal was imminent. Pyongyang has long condemned the joint military drills between Seoul and Washington. A North Korean missile was fired days before. Taiwan has condemned the planned naval exercises between a Chinese warship and an Indonesian ship off its east coast. Money markets indicate that there is a 50/50 chance of an increase in the CPI on Wednesday. A poll predicts that consumer prices will rise 0.1% in July, after dropping 0.4% in June. The annual CPI inflation rate is expected to drop to 3.4%, down from 3.5% one month ago. Skye Masters said in a podcast that "everyone is watching the CPI report." Skye Masters is head of'markets research' at National Australia Bank. If you see the CPI report coming in at zero I think that you will see a reasonable rise in Treasuries, as the market releases expectations of the Fed tightening. The markets are also increasingly pricing in a rate hike early in Japan. This puts pressure on Japan's short-dated bonds. The yield of the 5-year Japanese government bond rose to a record-high 2.1%. Meanwhile, the yield for 2-year Japanese bonds reached a high of 1.63%, which is a new 31-year high. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of other currencies) rose by 0.04%?to 99.85. The euro fell 0.02% to $1.1538. The Japanese yen fell 0.03% to 159.31 dollars, but remained?off the high of last week of 155.20. This is after several suspected rounds or intervention. The pound fell 0.01%, to $1.3501. Early European trades saw the Euro Stoxx futures down 0.15%, at 6,563, German DAX Futures fall 0.12% to 26,444, while FTSE Futures dropped 0.25% and stood at 10,823. The S&P 500 E-minis (U.S. Stock Futures) were up by 0.03% to 7,750. (Reporting and editing by Edwina Gubbs in Tokyo)
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Australian shares fall to a one-week low amid Middle East tensions
The Australian share market fell to its lowest level in a week on Wednesday. This was due to the?commodity stocks and the caution about rising tensions?in the Middle East. As of 0054 GMT the S&P/ASX 200 Index?was down by?0.4%, at 9,209.70, points, reaching its lowest level since 5 August. The benchmark index ended the previous session 0.2% higher. Investors remain cautious after Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged on February 2 and indicated it could tighten further policy if inflation persists. The escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened risk appetite on Wednesday. New attacks near major shipping routes fueled concerns about global energy supplies, and pressed Australia's resource-rich share market. The corporate earnings of the top lenders were also a focus. Commonwealth?Bank Australia reported record cash earnings, but noted a "sharp" slowdown in mortgage demand since May's government tax changes. CBA shares fell by 2.2%, to the lowest level since July 22, Financials recovered from initial losses to trade 0.2% up, mainly helped by Suncorp's nearly 5% increase after the insurer announced annual cash earnings that exceeded market expectations. BHP Group, Rio Tinto and other giants fell around 1%. Woodside Energy fell 0.8%, while energy stocks also dropped 0.3%. Separately shares of Australian Securities Exchange dropped 2.2% after the operator of the bourse said that a shareholder intended to file an action against the company at the Federal Court of Australia. Power ?producer AGL Energy forecast stronger-than-expected 2027 earnings, lifting its shares ?by over 4% to their highest levels since June 15. Health stocks fell 0.7%, while tech stocks declined?0.3%. New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX50?index declined by 0.1% to 13,848 points. (Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips) |1|For more information on DIARIES & DATA: U.S. earnings diary Wall Street Week Ahead Global Economy Week Ahead ................................................................ For latest top breaking news across all markets |1|
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Australia promised to build 1.2 million homes but builders are reaching their limits
Builder Jay Perham in Brisbane, Australia, was forced to pour cement at a housing site during the night because he couldn't find workers to do the work when the sun came up. Then, quality problems arise. Perham, the manager of Axiom Construction, said that you can't see at night. "The last three or four pours that I have made were all at night and we had head torches on and lamps." Brisbane, the host city for 'the 2032 Olympic Games, will see around A$7billion ($4.93billion) in Olympic-related construction. This will add to the existing shortage of workers. The construction of houses and apartments in Brisbane, and throughout Australia, is taking longer and costing more. This, according to builders and analysts, undermines the government’s promise to build 1.2 million homes by 2029. The National Housing Accord's five-year goal, which was agreed upon with state governments and the industry, is at the heart of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s strategy to solve a housing shortage in all 50 states. The plan combines federal funding of billions with state commitments for fast-track approvals and rezoning, as well as land releases to allow new developments. Official data show that two years after the agreement was signed, the number of completed homes is 27% lower than the average of 60,000 per quarter needed to reach the target. Hal Pawson is a professor emeritus of housing at University of New South Wales. He said: "We can clearly see that the annual house building numbers in Australia are not enough to reach the 1.2million target." The capacity of the construction sector is at its limit. Pawson said that while construction progress is varying across the country, it is especially difficult in Sydney, Australia’s largest city and the one of the least affordable cities for housing. Clare O'Neil, the Australian Housing Minister's spokesperson, acknowledged that there were challenges in achieving this "deliberately aggressive" target. The spokesperson stated in an email that the solution to these challenges was to "keep doing all we can to build homes faster". STALLED CONSTRUCTION The construction bottlenecks are threatening to make housing more expensive and highlight the challenge that many wealthy countries face in building enough homes, when there is a shortage of workers, infrastructure and material. The market has been cooled by major reforms announced in may that ended the types of tax breaks for property investments often blamed for driving up house prices. According to Cotality, property consultants, auction clearance rates have reached a six-year low and the average price of a property has dropped by about 2% over four months. Builders argue that this has not done much to alleviate the supply shortages that have plagued industry in waves ever since the COVID-19 epidemic. Michael Hopkins, a lobbyist for the industry, Master Builders Queensland said that it had shifted the discussion from boosting supply to taxation. This was not helpful. "We should talk about how to boost our workforce and how to streamline our redtape and regulations." Official data revealed that new dwelling starts in Australia declined by 11.2% in the first quarter 2026 compared with the previous quarter. Year-on-year growth also slowed to just 0.2%, down from 26.1%. The apartment construction sector was the largest drag on the economy, with a decline of 20.7% in the first quarter. House construction declined by 3.5%. Master Builders Australia reports that a new apartment takes 33 months to complete, compared with 21 months 10 years ago. A house, on the other hand, takes 11.5 month, compared to 8.6 months during the same time period. According to the data shared by Urbis, a consultancy in Australia, almost 70% of apartments approved since 2020 are still not under construction. Data from Urbis revealed that the Gold Coast, in Queensland, had the worst backlog, with 83% of apartments yet to be built, compared to 64% in Sydney, and 62% in Melbourne. Mark Dawson, Urbis housing sector leader, said that the rise in construction costs is a major factor affecting the affordability of apartments. Housing Industry Association (HIA), an industry group that represents builders, predicts Australia will miss its 2029 housing goal by approximately 15%. Don't help supply during a downturn Perham, a Brisbane resident, said that the price of concrete has increased by nearly 150% over the last six years. Plaster board prices have risen 46%, and pine frame prices rose 35%. Rami Issa of Roar Constructions in Sydney says that rising costs are reducing margins and many construction companies are struggling to breakeven. Issa does more of the work himself to cut costs. "I never used the tools before." He said, "I used to run the site but now I am?jumping with the boys on the tools to reduce the number of working hands." The industry is already feeling the squeeze of cost pressures. The data of the corporate regulator revealed that in the financial year ending June 30, 3472 construction companies entered into insolvency proceedings and appointed external administrators for a first time. This is down from 3,596 a year earlier but up from 2,977 a year ago. Australia's official?rate of cash is now 4.35%. It has been increased three times since 2026. Builders are bracing themselves for another drop in demand, as another rate increase is possible before the end of this year. Kenan Yazici is the general manager at Betacon Construction, a construction company in Sydney. He believes that the paradox of the boom-and bust cycles in Sydney is the fact that a downturn doesn't necessarily make the housing market more affordable. He said that when interest rates rise, people tend to pull back on development. This results in fewer projects being launched. "All of a suddenly, interest rates begin to drop. The property market is booming. Guess what? "There's just not enough to go around."
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Oil prices rise as supply concerns over the US-Iran agreement increase
The price of oil rose Wednesday morning, as?doubts over a U.S. - Iran peace pact and attacks on two vessels?fueled?concerns regarding Middle East supply disruptions. Industry data also showed that U.S. crude stocks had increased. Brent futures rose 72 cents or 0.81% to $89.63 per barrel at 0053 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which is a blend of U.S. West Texas Intermediate and West Texas Intermediate, gained 71 cents or 0.85% to $83.91. The benchmark contracts closed more than $1 higher Tuesday, their highest close since?July 31, and extended gains after a 5% jump on Monday. This was due to the fading hopes of a peace agreement between?the U.S. On Tuesday, the United States and Yemeni Houthis who are Iran-aligned reported separate attacks against shipping in?the Strait of Hormuz as well as Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Mohsenrezaei said that Iran's top official in security, Mohsen Rezaei stated on Tuesday, the 'Strait of Hormuz' shipping route will remain closed until the U.S. accepts Iran's conditions for ending the war. These include the'release of frozen Iranian assets' and the end of other conflicts throughout the region. Shipping data revealed that the Strait of Hormuz saw a drop in traffic to just six vessels on Monday compared to a 10-day-average of around 11. Prior to the war, the daily average of 125-140 vessels traversed the waterway. A poll conducted on Tuesday showed that U.S. crude and fuel inventories are expected to have decreased last week. According to market sources, American Petroleum Institute data showed that U.S. crude stocks rose "dramatically" in the week ending August 7, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell. Sources?said that crude?stocks increased by?9.1million barrels while gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 1.5million barrels and respectively 596,000 barrels from the previous week. Haitong Futures stated in a report that the crude build exceeded expectations. If confirmed by EIA's?report on Wednesday afternoon, it could ease concerns about tight supply. The EIA, 'the statistical arm of U.S. Department of Energy', is due to release official numbers at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT), on Wednesday. The EIA expects Middle East crude oil supply disruptions to continue through 2027. (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson, Sam Li)
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AGL Australia forecasts higher earnings in 2027 on the back of battery growth and lower costs
Australian power producer ?AGL Energy forecast stronger-than-expected 2027 earnings ?on Wednesday, ?betting lower operating costs and contributions from its expanding battery portfolio would offset softer wholesale electricity prices. The Melbourne-based firm forecasts underlying net profit for 2027 between A$470 ($332.01 millions) and A$670,000,000, with the middle point above Visible Alpha's estimate of A$550.8million, despite reporting a slight drop in profit in 2025. AGL stated that earnings would be supported by stable retail energy margins, and the contribution of a Liddell?Battery recently installed in New South Wales. This battery is a grid-scale 500 MW battery. According to the power producer, '2027 earnings will be affected by lower wholesale prices of electricity flowing through contracted positions, and higher gas costs, as low-cost legacy contracts are set to expire. AGL announced that the construction of the 500-MW Tomago Battery as well as the "Kwinana Swift Gas 2 Project" was underway. The utility's outlook is based on a net profit of A$631m for the year ending June 30. This was down from A$640m a year ago and below the Visible Alpha consensus of A$636.3m. AGL, Australia's biggest corporate carbon emitter said that lower wholesale electricity prices "weighed on earnings" as supply constraints eased and the milder weather decreased market volatility. Damien Nicks, AGL's Managing Director and CEO, said that the decrease in gross margins across the gas portfolio was due to the increase in gas purchase costs. This reflects the gradual rolling-off of legacy gas supply contracts at lower prices during the year. The power producer declared a final dividend at 26 Australian cents for each?share. This compares to 25 Australian cents the year before. AGL stated that it was in discussions with potential investors for more than two gigawatts of renewable energy as it looked to?improve capital efficiency and progress?its energy transformation plans. The A$8.730 share price was the highest intraday percentage increase since February 11, and also their highest level since June 15
Gold returns to 10-week highs as markets prepare for US CPI data
Gold rose by nearly 1% in?Wednesday's trading, boosted?by?reduced bets that the Federal Reserve will tighten next month. Investors were awaiting key U.S. Inflation data which could change policy expectations.
By 0330 GMT, spot gold had gained 0.9% and was trading at $4,406.34 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.6% to $4466.70.
Bullion reached a 10-week-high?on Tuesday, before hitting technical resistance around the 100-day moving?average of $4,387. It then closed lower for the second time in this month.
The primary driver of gold prices is the Fed's rate hikes. Kelvin Wong, senior analyst at OANDA, said that.
"In terms of the technical position, we started to see a break above $4,200 late last week, which created a positive momentum feedback loop."
Bullion's weekly gain was the largest since January after traders reduced their bets about U.S. interest rate hikes due to weaker than expected jobs data.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now price in a 50% probability of a September hike, down from 60% prior to the jobs report.
Gold tends to be supported by lower interest rates as it pays no interest.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index, due later that day, could reshape interest rate expectations. Austan Goolsbee, President of the Fed Bank of Chicago, said he was more worried about inflation than any weakness in the labour market.
Oil gains continued as?U.S. Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis and the U.S. reported separate attacks against shipping on Tuesday. Meanwhile, prospects for ending Iran war seemed dim. Tehran said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Washington accepted?its conditions.
Spot silver rose?1.2% to $65.46 an ounce. This is below the highest price since Tuesday, June 22, when it reached its highest level.
Palladium rose by 0.8%, to $1370.86, and platinum gained 0.6%, to $1754.10.
(source: Reuters)