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United States copper imports speed up in wake of CME squeeze: Andy Home

The May capture on the CME copper contract has passed but the influence on global flows of the red metal is still playing out. U.S. imports of copper have risen after traders capitalised on an unusual arbitrage window that opened between the CME and the London Metal Exchange (LME) agreements at the height of the squeeze on CME brief position holders.

The outcome has been a redistribution of worldwide exchange inventory with CME stocks reconstructing from depleted levels and both LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) stock falling.

It remains to be seen the length of time this global readjustment lasts but durable demand and domestic production restrictions have the potential to draw more metal into the United States.

CHILEAN EXPORTS REDIRECTED

The United States imported approximately 57,700 metric lots monthly of refined copper in the first half of 2024.

Incoming deliveries then jumped to 106,400 lots and 117,500 loads in July and August respectively, according to LSEG Group trade information.

The primary source of the additional metal was Chile. U.S. imports from the South American country sped up from an average 39,600 tons per month in January-June to 78,200 loads in July and 89,800 tons in August.

Certainly, the United States became the significant location for Chilean copper in the May-August period as deliveries to China dropped to an average 30,300 loads.

SHORTS COVERED?

A considerable part of Chile's shipments to the United States has been provided versus brief positions on the CME. The CME's limited series of good-delivery brand names was among the factors the May capture became so severe.

Chilean metal represent 18 of a total 57 deliverable copper brands on the U.S. exchange, surpassing the 13 domestically-produced brands.

An overall 76,440 tons of copper have gotten in CME warehouses in New Orleans given that the start of August, helping raise signed up stock to 74,824 tons from a July low of 8,117 heaps.

The liquidity increase has relaxed CME time-spreads after the extreme backwardations seen in the second quarter.

It's visible that while CME stocks have actually been increasing, those registered with both the LME and the ShFE have actually fallen.

However, worldwide exchange stock is broadly the same at an elevated 521,600 heaps, up 308,000 tons on the start of the year.

MORE TO COME?

CME copper stocks are by no ways one-way traffic, with the daily inflows being offset by a consistent stream of metal relocating the opposite instructions.

This talks to resilient demand in the United States even before the Federal Reserve's bumper rate cut trickles to the production sector.

Furthermore, domestic production is going to take a substantial knock due to geotechnical problems at one of country's biggest mines.

Production at the Bingham Canyon mine dropped 44%. year-on-year in the 3rd quarter due to movement in the walls. of what is the world's inmost open-pit copper mine. Rio Tinto, which owns the mine, cautioned that mined production. would be affected to the tune of 50,000 tons this year as feed. to the concentrator is supplemented with lower-grade ore. Mined. output will also be affected both next year and in 2026, albeit. to an as-yet unidentified extent, it said.

It may not just be CME copper shorts that need more U.S. imports in the months ahead.

The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a. writer .

(source: Reuters)