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Gold prices steady as investors wait for US trade updates and central bank meetings
Gold prices were not much changed on Monday, as investors watched developments in U.S. Trade Talks and awaited possible market-moving factors, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting scheduled next week. As of 0250 GMT, spot gold remained steady at $3,352.19 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures remained unchanged at $3,358.70. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst, said that the dollar has had a quiet start to the week. This has opened the door for gold to make gains in the early going. Tariff deadlines are looming. The closer we get to the August 1 deadline, without any new trade agreements emerging, the more likely it is that gold will start to fancy another run towards the $3.400 level, and perhaps even beyond. Investors are watching developments in the trade negotiations as U.S. president Donald Trump approaches his August 1 deadline. U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick is optimistic that a deal can be reached with the European Union. Reports said that Trump could visit China between October 30th and November 1st before attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. He might also meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea. The European Central Bank will likely hold its interest rates at 2.0% after a series of rate cuts. Last week, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller reiterated his belief that the U.S. Central Bank should reduce rates during its next policy meeting. In an environment of low interest rates, gold, which is often considered to be a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty, does well. The ruling coalition in Japan lost control of Japan's upper house during an election held on Sunday. This further weakened Prime Minister Shigeru Shiba's hold on power, as the U.S. deadline for tariffs looms. Other metals, such as spot silver, rose 0.1% to $38.22 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.3%, to $1.425.11, and palladium increased 0.2%, to $1.243.47.
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BHP exits $2.5 billion Tanzania nickel project, partner Lifezone says
BHP Group chose to sell to Lifezone Metals its stake in the $2.5 billion Kabanga Nickel Project in Tanzania for up to $83 million. Lifezone, a company listed on the NYSE, said that it would acquire BHP’s 17% equity stake in Kabanga Nickel Limited. KNL is the majority owner in the Kabanga Nickel Project located in the northwestern part of Tanzania. In a report released by the company on Friday, development costs were estimated at $2.49billion. The project is expected to produce around 50 000 metric tons per year once it has been fully ramped-up, which will take about six years. The project will be finalized by the end of next year. BHP agreed to invest up to $100 million by 2022 in the nickel mines and processing facilities, if certain conditions are met. BHP still views Kabanga as one of the best undeveloped nickel-sulphide projects in the world, according to a source familiar with the matter. However, the uncertain outlook for the nickel market and the miner’s capital allocation structure have made investing in greenfield nickel project challenging. BHP's spokesperson declined to make any comment. BHP's view of nickel has changed due to the boom in production from Indonesia over the past few years. BHP put its Australian Nickel West operation on care and maintain last year because of a poor outlook on nickel prices. A decision about the future is due in early 2027. Lifezone owns now 100% of KNL. KNL holds 84% of Tembo Nickel Corporation Limited, the Tanzanian operating firm for the Kabanga Nickel Project. Tanzanian government owns the remaining 16%. Lifezone said that all existing agreements with BHP had been terminated, and it also took full control of 100% offtake of the Kabanga Nickel Project. (Reporting by Melanie Burton; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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New Zealand dollar drops as rate-cut bets are boosted by benign inflation
The New Zealand dollar fell on Monday, while local bonds rallied. Inflation data showed that it was not as bad at first thought. Still tepid price pressures in New Zealand support a rate cut next month. The kiwi fell by 0.3%, to $0.5941. It had fallen 0.8% the previous week. This is now the third week in a row that it has declined. The kiwi dollar is down almost 3% since a peak of $0.6120 nine months ago. Near-term support has now been found at the low of last week of $0.5906. New Zealand's second-quarter inflation rate rose to 2.7%, its highest in a full year, due to rising prices for food, electricity, and streaming services. This was below the 2.8% forecast. The non-tradable price inflation, mainly domestically generated, has continued to decline to 3.7%, from 4%. Citi analysts said in a client note that "CPI inflation is not expected to increase significantly this year, giving the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Committee reason to be skeptical about a return of annual CPI to the top of target range (of 1-3%)." This would allow the MPC re-starting the easing cycle during the August 20th meeting. The two-year swap rate fell by 6 basis points, to 3.115%. This is the lowest it has been since mid-May. The yields on ten-year government bonds fell 4 basis points to 4.595%. The markets now price in a probability of 75% that the RBNZ is going to cut by 25 basis point in August. This was up from 61% before the data. The Aussie was flat at $0.5510, after losing 1% the previous week, to as low as $0.455. The 65-cent level is a good support. The yen fell 0.3% against the dollar to 96.61, as the Japanese currency jumped a bit after the ruling coalition lost the upper house of parliament in Sunday's election, a result which was predicted by polls. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to release its minutes of the July policy meeting, which may provide some insight into the rare split between policymakers prior to deciding whether or not rates will remain at 3.85%. The markets have priced in a 90% probability that the RBA is going to cut rates this August, after a surprisingly weak jobs report was released last week. On Thursday, Governor Michele Bullock will deliver a speech during the annual fundraising luncheon at the Anika Foundation. Paul Conway, Chief Economist of RBNZ, will speak about the economic impact of tariffs on New Zealand at 11:15am local time Thursday. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Stella Qiu).
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Shanghai metals are rising after China pledges to boost industrial growth
After China's Industry Ministry last week promised to stabilize the machinery, automobiles and electrical equipment sector, the most traded metals contracts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased on Monday. Tao Qing said that China would launch action plans to stabilize growth in these industries. Tao said that the move was designed to "improve supply capacity for premium products" in order to prepare the industry to achieve an upgrade of quality and a reasonable growth, measured by quantity. It also promotes an "orderly withdrawal of outdated production capacities". SHFE zinc was the biggest gainer, up 2.69% at 22,900 yuan a ton ($3,190.48), as of 0102 GMT. The contract had hit 22,915 Yuan earlier, its highest level since May 14. SHFE Nickel rose by 1.25%, to 121.750 yuan. Aluminium gained 1.17%, to 20.745 yuan. Lead grew 1.04%, to 16.990 yuan. Copper climbed 0.87%, to 78.990 yuan. Tin advanced 0.56%, to 265,390. Metals analysts at a Beijing futures company commented that "China's Industrial Ministry said was encouraging for metals generally." They added, "Industrials sectors are all relevant to metals." The ministry stated that the plan would cover 10 industries in addition to downstream industries. These include steel, nonferrous materials, petrochemicals, and construction materials. Metals have generally responded positively to news. Those with the most room for price increases will be stronger, said a Shanghai-based futures analyst. After Friday's spike, LME metals fluctuated only slightly on Monday. Zinc rose 0.5% to $2.832.5 per tonne. It reached $2,837 earlier in the session. This was the highest level since April 1. LME aluminium increased 0.15% to 2,633.5. Lead gained 0.13% at $33,490. Nickel added 0.11% at $15,235. While lead decreased 0.1% to $2,000 Copper was unchanged at $9,776.5, after reaching $9,777 last Friday, its highest level since July 8. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other topics. (Reporting by Hongmei Li. Editing by Sumana Niandy.
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Investors continue to monitor the impact of new sanctions against Russia on oil prices.
The oil price barely moved on Monday, as traders watched the impact of European sanctions on Russian supply and rising production from Middle East producers. They also worried about fuel prices as tariffs weigh on global economic growth. Brent crude futures were up 5 cents at $69.33 per barrel by 0040 GMT, after closing 0.35% higher Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was up 2 cents to $67.36 per barrel after a 0.30% increase in the previous session. The European Union approved Friday the 18th set of sanctions against Russia for the conflict in Ukraine. These included India's Nayara Energy as an exporter who refines oil from Russian crude. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesperson, said that Russia has developed a certain immunity against Western sanctions. Rosneft - Russia's largest oil producer and owner of Nayara - criticised Sunday the sanctions, calling them unjustified, illegal, and a direct threat to India's energy independence. A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Iran, another oil producer sanctioned, will hold nuclear talks with Britain, France, and Germany in Istanbul on Friday. The three European countries had warned that international sanctions would be reimposed if the negotiations were not resumed. Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil rigs operating in the U.S. fell by two last week to 422 - the lowest level since September 2021. Separately U.S. Tariffs on Imports from the European Union will kick in on 1 August, although U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick stated on Sunday that he is confident the United States can secure a deal with the bloc. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Florence Tan, Reporting)
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BHP exits $2.5 billion Tanzania nickel project, partner Lifezone says
BHP Group chose to sell to Lifezone Metals its stake in the $2.5 billion Kabanga Nickel Project in Tanzania for up to $83 million. Lifezone, a company listed on the NYSE, said that it would acquire BHP’s 17% equity stake in Kabanga Nickel Limited. KNL is the majority owner in the Kabanga Nickel Project located in the northwestern part of Tanzania. In a report released by the company on Friday, development costs were estimated at $2.49billion. The project is expected to produce around 50 000 metric tons per year once it has been fully ramped-up, which will take about six years. The project will be finalized by the end of next year. BHP agreed to invest up to $100 million by 2022 in the nickel mines and processing facilities, if certain conditions are met. BHP didn't respond to an immediate request for comment about why it sold its stake in this project. BHP's view of nickel has changed since the divestment, largely due to a surge in production from Indonesia over the past few years. The company put its Australian Nickel West operation on care and maintain last year because of a low outlook for nickel prices. A decision about the future of these operations is due in early 2027. Lifezone owns now 100% of KNL. KNL in turn holds 84% interest in Tembo Nickel Corporation Limited, the Tanzanian operating firm for the Kabanga Nickel Project. Tanzanian government owns the remaining 16%. Lifezone said that all existing agreements with BHP had been terminated, and it also took full control of 100% offtake of the Kabanga Nickel Project. (Reporting by Melanie Burton; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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Exports of rare-earth magnets from China to the US grew in June
China's rare earth magnet exports to the United States rose to more than seven-times their level in May, indicating a sharp increase in the flow. Data from the General Administration of Customs on Sunday showed that the number of shipments from China to the United States, the world's biggest producer of rare-earth magnets, increased by 660% in June compared to May. This followed pacts made in June to settle issues relating to shipments of magnets and rare earth minerals to the United States. As part of the agreement, Nvidia will resume sales of H20 AI chips in China. In retaliation to U.S. Tariffs, China, which supplies more than 90% global supply of rare-earth magnets, added several rare-earth items to its list of export restrictions in early April. Due to the long time it took to obtain export licenses, the sharp drop in shipments that followed in April and may had disrupted the global supply chain. Some automakers outside China were forced to stop partial production because of a rare earths scarcity. China exported 3,188 tonnes of rare earth permanent magnetic materials globally in June, an increase of 157.5% compared to 1,238 tons shipped in May. However, the volume in June was still 38.1% below the same month in 2024. Analysts said that the shipment of magnets is likely to increase in July, as more exporters have obtained licenses since June. Exports of rare-earth magnets dropped 18.9% year on year, to 22,319 tonnes in the first half 2025.
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Australia's South32 manganese production recovers after cyclone and beats expectations
South32, a diversified Australian miner, reported on Monday higher manganese ore output in the fourth quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations, after resuming exports from its Australia manganese operation following storm delays. Groote Eylandt mining Co (GEMCO), a project of the company in Australia's Northern Territory, was hit by severe storms early in 2025. It made it difficult to restart production after a tropical-cyclone had damaged vital infrastructure at the site a year earlier. The company released a statement saying that "Australia Manganese successfully recommenced export shipments in the third quarter, marking an important recovery from the effects caused by Tropical Cyclone Megan." The Perth-based company said that its Australia Manganese operations will post losses of between $100 million and $120 million operating earnings by fiscal 2025. This is after a restart following disruptions caused by Tropical Cyclone Megan. For the quarter ending June 30, the world's biggest producer of manganese (used to improve steel quality and strength) produced 1.1 million wet-metric tons of manganese. This is up from 534,000 wmt the year before. Barrenjoey reported that the result was better than the Visible Alpha consensus of 850,000 wmt. The company said it had invested $517 millions in growth capital expenditures at its Arizona-based Hermosa Project during fiscal 2025. The miner, which is diversified, also reported fourth-quarter production of copper at 21,900 tonnes from the Sierra Gorda Mine in which it has a 45% share. South32, in mid-July, had indicated an impairment at its Mozal aluminum smelter located in Mozambique. It said that its production is under review as it hasn't been able secure affordable electricity prices after March 2026. (Reporting and editing by Leslie Adler, Lincoln Feast and Adwitiya Shrivastava from Bengaluru.
West challenges China's important minerals hold on Africa: Andy Home
China's CMOC Group overtook Glencore to end up being the world's. biggest manufacturer of cobalt in 2015 as it ramped up its new. Kisanfu mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The company's production leapt by 174% year-on-year to. 55,526 metric tons, representing over a quarter of international. demand of 213,000 lots.
Kisanfu, in which Chinese battery giant CATL owns a minority. stake, has actually flooded the cobalt market. The Cobalt Institute. price quotes international production exceeded demand by 12,500 heaps in. 2023, making it among the greatest surpluses recently.
CMOC is unconcerned. It plans to lift output further this. year regardless of a slump in the cobalt rate from $40 per lb. in May 2022 to a current $13.
Others can't pay for to be so sanguine. The cost implosion. has actually upturned job economics and undermined Western hopes of. decreasing dependence on China for a metal that is important both. to tidy energy innovation and military hardware.
However the West is now tough China's tight grip on the. mineral riches lying underneath the soil of the Congo and its. neighbour Zambia.
This new scramble for Africa comes with a post-colonial. twist since both countries have aspirations to be major actors in. the important minerals race.
BACK TO AFRICA
The idea is in the name. The Copperbelt straddling northern. Zambia and the southern part of the Congo still consists of a few of. the richest copper and cobalt deposits in the world.
KoBold Metals, a California-based metals exploration business. backed by billionaires Bill Gates and Jeff Bezoz, declares its. Mingomba task in Zambia boasts copper grades of around 5%,. compared with under 1% for a lot of huge mines in Chile, the world's. top producer.
Couple of Western mining companies have actually previously ventured into. the renascent Copperbelt, cautious of the daunting mix of political. risk, bad infrastructure and, in the case of Congolese cobalt,. the ethical issues around artisanal mining.
Fewer still have lasted.
U.S. manufacturer Freeport McMoRan brought the Tenke. Fungurume copper-cobalt mine into production in 2009. It offered. its holding to CMOC in 2016, providing the Chinese business its. initially grip in the Congo.
Freeport went on to sell CMOC the Kisanfu deposit in 2020. stating it was no longer tactical to its long-term growth.
CMOC rather evidently sees the deposit very differently.
And Western federal governments also appear to be concerning the view. If you're tactically short of energy transition metals, that. such as copper and cobalt, there's just one location to head.
Back to Africa.
DE-RISKING AFRICAN METALS
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). is planning to near double its monetary commitments to attempt to. de-risk mining in the Copperbelt.
The flagship financial investment so far is the Lobito Passage. job, which will update the existing railway from the. Angolan port of Lobito to the Congo and after that extend it into. Zambia.
The goal is to link Copperbelt mines straight with the. Atlantic Ocean, reducing both the cost and the carbon foot-print. of the existing trucking passage to South African ports.
U.S. and European government support, it is hoped, will. de-risk logistics for the private sector, a policy that has. currently borne fruit in the type of a six-year dedication from. Ivanhoe Mines to use the upgraded railway for copper. exports from its huge Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Congo.
The United States Trade and Advancement Company (USTDA),. meanwhile, is moneying an expediency study into a brand-new. 200-megawatt solar power plant in Solwezi.
This will not only provide Zambian market but has the. possible to supply power for 2 vital mineral mines in the. Congo, dealing with another consistent issue for Copperbelt. operators.
Facilities is simply the start of the West's re-engagement. with the Congo and Zambia.
The DFC has an extremely healthy pipeline of important minerals. projects in the area, according to deputy CEO Nisha Biswal.
Japan's Company for Metals and Energy Security has simply. signed a memorandum of understanding with Congo's state-owned. mining business Gecamines for technical cooperation at every. phase of the mineral supply chain.
The offer falls under the aegis of the Minerals Security. Partnership, a U.S.-led alliance of Western countries seeking to. lower crucial metals reliance on China and other issue. suppliers such as Russia.
TAKING BACK CONTROL
Gecamines has in recent years been a largely passive. minority stake-holder in the country's mines.
That is changing as the Congolese government looks to get a. greater earnings share of its mineral resources.
President Felix Tshisekedi's federal government, which won a 2nd. term in December elections, is taking a more difficult line with some of. the Chinese investment deals struck under his predecessor Joseph. Kabila.
The amorphous mega handle China's Sicomines joint endeavor. has actually been reviewed with the Chinese partners dedicating to $7. billion in facilities spending and yearly payment of 1.2%. royalties.
CMOC itself was locked in a drawn-out dispute with the. federal government over royalties, causing a year-long suspension of. exports.
CMOC ended up paying $800 million and, maybe more. considerably, accepted equate Gecamines' minority holding. into commensurate physical metal offtake deals.
Gecamines sees this as a design template for all its minority. holdings and the Zambian federal government seems to be taking a close. interest.
Gecamines has actually also just offered to buy three copper-cobalt. assets from Eurasian Resources Group, which is part owned by the. government of Kazakhstan.
The real game-changer, however, could be the Congo's second. effort at formalising its artisanal mining force, which. jointly produces over 10% of the world's supply of cobalt.
Entreprise Generale du Cobalt (EGC) was produced in 2021 and. provided special rights over artisanal production but failed to. protect an ideal deposit to trial the plan.
Gecamines will now move 5 mining areas to EGC in what. is hoped to be the start of a transformational process of. assimilating artisanal workers.
De-risking artisanal mining would be also be. transformational for the Minerals Security Partnership, which. desperately requires to discover cobalt that's not committed to Chinese. buyers.
The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a. columnist .
(source: Reuters)