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Can US Senator Lindsey Graham’s Ukraine initiatives survive his absence?

The sudden death of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham asks an important and timely question: Will the recent shift in President Donald Trump's administration's favor to Kyiv continue without a close ally?

Answer will have a major impact on 'two main issues: legislation to sanction Russia which Graham has pushed for over a year and military aid for Ukraine.

Both the momentum and the pressure have shifted in favor of Ukraine as Kyiv has faced intensified Russian attacks, while also being under intense international pressure to put an end to the almost 4-1/2 year-old conflict.

Graham and the other senators who support the sanctions bill announced Friday that they have reached an agreement with Trump to move forward on the "Sanctioning Russia Act," a bill which has been held up due to Trump's resistance despite it being co-sponsored 85 out of 100 senators.

Trump said himself last week that he will grant Kyiv the license to manufacture interceptors for Patriot's defensive missile system. However, Zelenskiy’s government claims it urgently needs defensive munitions.

Graham, 71 years old, died Saturday night, just a day after he made his tenth trip to Ukraine, since Russia invaded the country in full force on February 20, 2022. During this trip, Graham announced that he had reached an agreement with the White House on how to move forward on a bill to sanction Russia.

Linking KYIV and TRUMP

The South Carolina Senator had been?lobbying for years for military aid for Ukraine, and served as a liaison between Kyiv with the Trump administration.

He helped to arrange a crucial minerals agreement between the United States of America and Kyiv last year. He convinced Trump?to support a plan that would give the United States preferential entry to new Ukrainian mineral projects in exchange for investments.

Matthew Murray, an ex-Commerce Department official who now teaches at Georgetown and Columbia Universities, said that he was able to influence President Trump's position on Ukraine.

Murray said that the senator's work will be self-sustaining.

Zelenskiy expressed his "deep sadness" at Graham's death. "We were in constant communication, and I'll miss our conversations." "We met twice just in the last week," he said in a press release.

Analysts say Graham's record on Ukraine is mixed, and that Trump's sometimes strained relationship with Zelenskiy and his "America First' foreign policy, as well as the expensive war with Iran, which consumes U.S. resource and puts pressure on allowing Russian oil shipments to moderate energy prices, are complicating matters.

"It is a huge loss for Ukraine." "I don't believe anyone should be under any illusions," said Scott Anderson, of the Brookings Institution. He noted that Graham was a major influence behind the scenes on Trump by the more internationalist side of the Republican Party.

Graham, however, was unable convince Trump to allow the vote on the bill. The last major Ukraine assistance legislation passed both by the House and Senate was $61 billion back in April 2024. Since Trump's second term began in January 2025, many Republicans have become less supportive of Kyiv.

'THE PRESIDENT'S EAR'

Without Graham, an ex-Trump critic who has become a close friend and frequent golf partner of the president, it could be harder to pass a bill on sanctions or security assistance.

In January, several other pro Ukraine lawmakers will also be leaving Congress, including former Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell.

Charles Lichfield is the Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center.

Trump has criticized Zelenskiy harshly and repeatedly pressed his government to accept a deal which could involve painful concessions. He criticized the Ukrainian leader at the Oval Office in early last year for not being grateful enough for U.S. support.

Trump's tone has become more accommodative in recent months.

Zelenskiy stated that after the NATO summit in this month, Ukraine and the U.S. reached a political accord on the production of Patriot interceptors. He also said that both sides are talking about a joint drone production.

Trump will allow a vote to be taken on the bill that targets countries who buy Russian gas, oil and uranium.

Some suggested that the bill should be named after Graham.

In a press release, Senator Jeanne Shaheen, top Democrat of the Foreign Relations Committee, and a co-sponsor of the bill, stated that there could be no better tribute to Lindsey.

The Senate has yet to announce a date for the vote. However, John Thune, South Dakota's Republican majority leader on CNN, stated that Graham would leave behind an "incredible" legacy if it were passed. (Reporting and editing by Cynthia Osterman; Patricia Zengerle)

(source: Reuters)