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The outgoing IMF chief economics sees shifting trade relations, continued uncertainty and risks on the global outlook

IMF Chief Economist?Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated on Friday that strategic petroleum releases prevented a more rapid rise in oil prices due to the Middle East war. However, the global economy is at risk if the fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S.

Gourinchas said in an interview that the reserves of the countries were now depleted. This meant they would have less maneuvering room if the conflict flared up again.

Gourinchas has warned for years that geopolitical tensions can lead to an even more fragmented global economy. He did not give any details on a new forecast the IMF will release on July 8 after he returns back to academia.

He suggested that the global lender should return to a base-line forecast, instead of the three scenarios it published in April. The Fund skipped a baseline projection for the second time in his tenure. The first was after the?U.S. The tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on imports from the majority of countries around the world have thrown global trade into chaos.

IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack left it open on Thursday whether the IMF will continue to use the three growth scenarios or return to a traditional baseline forecast.

She said that the global economy is moving away from the "reference scenario," which assumed an end to the conflict quickly and growth of 3,1% in 2026 to a "disadvantageous scenario" with growth of 2.5%.

Gourinchas stated that in 2025 and 2026 there was little historical precedent upon which to rely to make a credible baseline prediction. This meant economists would have to "be modest" and take a step back and not base their forecasts on baselines. Instead, they should look at a range or outcomes, outlined as scenarios. Such cases are rare.

He said that he didn't want it to happen too often, but he did admit the risks and uncertainty were high.

Gourinchas stated that quick releases of strategic oil reserves and changes to production by refiners helped to avoid even more steep increases in oil price, with only 3% of global oil removed from market instead of 10-15% as initially predicted.

The risks are higher and the countries have less oil to cushion any further reductions in supply in case of a breakdown in the ceasefire and resumption of hostilities.

Trump blamed Iran on Friday for an attack against a ship near Oman, which he claimed had violated the ceasefire. This highlighted the fragility in a preliminary agreement to end the Iran War.

Deals without the US, shifting trade ties

Gourinchas noted that global trade flows, and relationships have clearly changed in the wake of Trump's tariffs. He also mentioned the completion by the European Union of trade agreements with Latin America, and India following decades of negotiation.

"All of the sudden, both have been signed in less than a year. It's not a mere coincidence. He said that you can't afford to not deepen your?trade relationships with other countries.

He said that tariffs, and other economic sanctions, had a limited use, but did not mention Trump's increased use of tariffs in addressing a variety of policy disputes.

He said that there is a belief that having "these kinds of chokepoints or this critical lever" is really important. But, he added, we see how quickly the global economy is trying to find ways around these points.

The other side will respond. They do not remain passive. They find ways to circumvent, accelerate innovation or develop new business ties with partners. "They almost never work in the long-term." Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Editing by Andrea Ricci

(source: Reuters)