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Oil prices fall on prospects of Middle East ceasefire alleviating supply disruption
Prices of oil?dropped more than 5%?Wednesday? on the prospect that a 'possible? ceasefire would ease supply disruptions in the Middle East region, after reports that the U.S. had sent Iran a plan with 15 points to end their war. Brent crude futures dropped $6.21 or 5.9% to $98.28 per barrel at 0058 GMT after falling to $97.57. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $4.67 or 5.1% to $87.68 per barrel after dropping as low as $86.72. Both benchmarks gained nearly 5% Tuesday before paring their gains in volatile trading after the settlement. Hiroyuki KIKUWA, the chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment (a unit of Nissan Securities), said that expectations of a 'ceasefire' have increased slightly, and profit-taking has taken over. He added, "But it remains uncertain whether the negotiations will be successful and limit sales." If fighting resumes and Iran attacks?energy installations in neighbouring nations or if the pressure to close Strait of Hormuz increases, oil prices could surge again, he warned. U.S.?President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that the U.S. is making progress in negotiating an ending to the war with Iran. A source confirmed Washington had sent Iran 15-point proposal for settlement. Israel's Channel 2 reported that the U.S. is seeking a one-month ceasefire in order to discuss the plan. The plan includes dismantling Iran's nuke program, ending support for proxy groups and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency called it the largest oil supply disruption ever. The?Prime Minister of Pakistan said on Tuesday that he would be willing to host discussions between the U.S. Iran has denied any negotiations with the U.S. According to a Tuesday note, Iran told the?United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that "non-hostile ships" could transit the Strait of Hormuz if coordinated with Iranian authorities. Sources said Washington is preparing to send more troops into the region. Shipping data show that to offset the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Yanbu Port exported oil at a rate of nearly 4 million barrels a day last week. This is compared with exports before war began. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing, Christian Schmollinger and Yuka Obayashi)
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Philippines: Working with Washington for oil from sanctioned U.S. countries
The Philippines' ambassador to the United States stated that it is working closely with Washington in order to securing waivers and exceptions to allow oil to be purchased from sanctioned U.S. countries. This will 'ensure supply. The Philippines, which is heavily dependent on imported fuels, declared on Tuesday a national energy emergency in order to deal with Middle East War fallout, including oil procurement. In a series of phone messages, Jose Manuel Romualdez said: "We're working with the State Department on getting waivers or exemptions for oil purchases from sanctioned U.S. countries." Romualdez responded that "all options" are being considered when asked if Venezuelan oil and Iranian oil were included in the discussions. When asked what the State Department's response was, the ambassador said: "Work is in progress." The government of the Philippines said that as of March 20, it had enough fuel to last the Philippines for 45 days. It is also purchasing 1 million barrels more oil in order to increase its buffer stock. The government was authorized to buy fuel and petroleum products in order to maintain a timely and sufficient supply. Manila temporarily increased its coal-fired production due to 'energy supply' pressures. The United States granted a 30-day waiver to allow the country to import its first Russian crude in five years this week. Washington also announced a 30-day waiver of sanctions for the purchase of Iranian oil that is already in?sea. The waiver is applicable to oil loaded on any vessel including those under sanctions on or before March 20, and discharged on April 19,
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Reports of a ceasefire in the Middle East have caused oil prices to fall and stocks to rise.
On Wednesday, oil prices fell and stocks rose on reports that the U.S. was seeking a ceasefire for one month in its war against?Iran. The U.S. had also sent Iran a 15-point discussion plan, which raised hopes of a possible resumption of?oil exports from the Persian Gulf. S&P 500 futures increased 0.9% on the morning of Asia, European futures?rose 1.2%, and Brent crude?futures fell?about 6% at $98.30 per barrel. In the morning, equity markets in Australia, South Korea and Japan all rose by about 2%. Gold, which investors were selling in order to profit from a long rally rose by 1.6%. The market is trading headlines right now, said Kerry Craig. Global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The tone is positive. "The difficulty now is...there's still uncertainty about what will happen next and whether a ceasefire would be possible." U.S. president Donald Trump stated?on Wednesday that the U.S. is making progress in the negotiations to end the war. This includes winning an important concession by Tehran. A source confirmed Washington had sent Iran a settlement proposal of 15 points. Channel 12 in Israel, citing three sources said that the U.S. wanted a one-month ceasefire for the discussion of the 15-point Plan. Tehran denies that direct talks took place. CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM The markets have responded positively, but cautiously, to the rumblings that began Monday, indicating the U.S. was looking to end hostilities. It is still unclear if much progress has been made on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers. The dollar has been slightly lower this week - it bought 158.8yen on Wednesday and traded at $1.1620 for the euro. Brent crude prices are up 35% from the start of the war and have reached a level near $100 per barrel, which is already hurting the economies of buyers in Asia. They pay more for diesel and jet fuel. The interest rate markets are also predicting that central banks will take extreme measures to combat inflation. They have priced in a series hikes for Europe, Britain and Australia over the next few months, as well as no more U.S. rate reductions. In Tokyo, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped by around five basis points. Two-year yields also fell to 3.875%. Bond prices increase, and yields drop. LIGHT POSITIONING Marc Velan is the head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore. People are reluctant to pursue moves that are headline-driven, and can reverse rapidly. Sources said Washington is preparing to send more troops into the region. On Tuesday, two people with knowledge of the situation said that the U.S. is 'expected to send thousands" of soldiers from its elite 82nd Airborne Division in the Middle East. The Australian dollar hovered around 70 U.S. Cents after the February inflation data, from before the outbreak of war, was a little cooler than expected. Investors have been spooked by the recent cap on withdrawals from a private debt funds, as a result of signs of stress. Ares Management was the latest asset management firm to do this. The shares of Ares, a company that managed assets worth $623 billion at the end 2025, dropped 1% on Monday. So far in 2018, they are down 36%. (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes; Tom Westbrook)
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Minister says Australia will set a floor price for its critical mineral reserves
Australia will "no doubt", have a floor price in its strategic reserve of critical minerals. Resources Minister,?Madeleine King, said this?on Wednesday. The resource-rich nation is looking to consolidate its role as an important supplier to its allies. "We are building a strategic reserve." "There will also be a price floor," King said to delegates at the Minerals Week summit in Canberra. He added that the government would consult with the industry for the 'right price. It is about a new pricing mechanism that reflects the cost of producing these materials." Australia plans to become the world's leading supplier of rare earth minerals, which are vital to industries ranging from automotive to defense. This will be achieved in part by developing a strategic reserve, with funding of A$1.2billion ($793m). The project is expected to start up in the second half 2026. This will highlight the country's ambitions of becoming a major player on the global mineral market. Australia also supports private investment through entities like the Northern Australia Infrastructure Fund and the Export Finance Agency (EFA), which will contribute an additional A$4 Billion. King said that Australia needs to be financially prepared for such projects in the long term if it wants to establish itself as a reliable supplier of 'critical minerals' as global supply chains are rebuilt. "They're long-term investments" King stated, "I do think we will have to continue doing this for a while." China is the largest producer and refiner of critical minerals for industry. Last year, its restrictions on certain exports shook up the automotive and defense industries and drove a global drive to diversify supply.
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Cuban crisis: International convoy brings tons of aid in the form of a convoy to Cuba
Cuba?received on Tuesday a shipment?of humanitarian aid from Nuestra America Convoy, a global effort organized by activists who are seeking to circumvent the?U.S. Cuba is under sanctions that severely restrict shipments of fuel, food and other goods to the island. A small ship, which left last week for the port of Progreso, Mexico, arrived early Tuesday morning in Havana Harbor, carrying 14 tons of food and medicine, as well as solar panels and bikes, to Cuban authorities. The ship was part of a flotilla that left Progresso with two other ships arriving later. The ship topped up the 6 tons of goods that activists had flown into Cuba over the last week. Last week, Cuban President Miguel Diaz Canel?received the members of the convoy to the presidential palace. This included European politicians like?former British Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Nuestra America is a coalition of nearly 300 non-governmental organizations, political parties, unions and legislators from over 30 countries. "This is only the first step." After disembarking, Brazilian activist Thiago Avila, who had sailed from Mexico, promised that much more support would follow. The delivery on Tuesday, which was delayed by several days due to poor sailing conditions in the Caribbean, is largely symbolic in a nation that is facing an economic crisis. This has seriously impacted transportation, healthcare, and electricity generation. The Trump administration cut off fuel to the island nation and threatened to impose tariffs on oil-supplying countries. The Trump administration has cut off fuel supplies to the island nation, and threatened to impose tariffs on countries that deliver oil to Cuba. The crew of the boat, which arrived in Havana, Cuba on Tuesday, renamed it "Granma 2," in honor of the yacht that Fidel Castro, historic leader of Cuba's revolution, landed on in 1956, to start the revolutionary struggle to overthrow Fulgencio Battista. Reporting by Ayose Naranjo in Havana, Editing by Dave Sherwood & Lincoln Feast
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Trump will ease smog regulations on summer gasoline in order to lower prices, sources claim
Two sources with knowledge of the situation say that the Trump administration will announce on Wednesday a temporary lifting of federal smog-cutting restrictions on summer-blend gas to 'curb rising fuel prices due to the war in Iran. This move will make gasoline more affordable by preventing refiners from switching to expensive summer blends. Fuel retailers will also be able to sell gasoline containing 15% ethanol (also known as E15) throughout the summer driving seasons, when more stringent rules would normally limit its use. Analysts believe the change will reduce retail prices by several cents per gallon and help both consumers and refiners who are struggling to meet fuel shortages. According to AAA, the average price of a gallon in the United States has recently risen above $3.97. This is a dramatic increase from less than $3 earlier this season. In order to reduce air pollution, the U.S. switches to summer gasoline to reduce pollution. These blends are less volatile, which can reduce evaporation and smog during warmer weather. The Iran conflict has caused a disruption in global supply. U.S. crude oil?topped $100 per barrel for the first since the Russia-Ukraine crisis of 2022. The U.S. Environment?Protection?Agency, which oversees these regulations, has said that it has worked hard to promote American dominance in energy and "monitors the supply" with federal and industry partners. The White House is expected to make the move as part of a larger effort to limit the political and economic fallout that will result from the rising cost of energy during the summer driving season. (Reporting and editing by Lisa Shumkaer; Jarrett Renshaw)
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US oil prices drop on prospects of Middle East ceasefire alleviating supply disruption
U.S. crude oil futures dropped about 4% in early trading on 'Wednesday,' on the prospect that a possible ceasefire would ease?disruption of a global?oil supply. This was after reports that Washington sent Tehran a fifteen-point plan for ending the Middle East war. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI),?futures, dropped as low as $87.80 per barrel at the?open and were down $3.49 or 3.8% at $88.86 per barrel by 2305 GMT. WTI gained 4.8% on the Tuesday before paring its gains in volatile trading after settlement. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the U.S. is making progress in its negotiations to end war with Iran. This includes winning an important concession by Tehran. A?source confirmed Washington sent Iran a settlement proposal of 15 points. Israel's Channel 12, which reported the plan first, stated that a ceasefire of one month would be announced by a mechanism developed by the U.S. Steve?Witkoff, Jared Kushner and other Middle East envoys are currently working on the plan. Tehran denies that direct talks have taken place. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the powerful speaker of Iran's parliament, dismissed these reports on Monday as "fake". (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; reporting by Yuka Obaashi)
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Brazil is the leader in beef production, which accounts for 40% of all agriculture-related forest destruction.
According to a new study, beef production accounts for 40% of the?all clearing of forest done to 'open up?spaces for food production. The study found that Brazil, which is the largest exporter in the world of beef and soya beans, topped the list of nations who have cleared the greatest amount of forest to expand agriculture. Researchers at Chalmers University of Technion in Sweden used satellite data and agricultural statistics combined with a model to study 184 agricultural products across 179 countries between 2001-2022. They produced what they call the most comprehensive global assessment of agriculture-linked?deforestation?todate. The data shows that palm oil accounts for 9% global deforestation. Soybeans are at 5%. Maize and rice each account for 4%. Cassava is at 3%. Cocoa and coffee each make up 2%. Brazil was responsible for nearly a third of the global deforestation (32%) during this period. Indonesia, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the U.S., and Ivory Coast were all in the top five. Between 2001 and 2022 121 million hectares (or 299 million acres), of forest was lost, leading to emissions of 41.2 gigatons CO2e. The study found that staple crops, such as maize, rice, and?cassava, together account for more than 11% of agriculture driven deforestation. This is more than export products, such as cocoa, coffee, and rubber, combined. Their impact is also spread around the world, rather than concentrated on specific regions. Martin Persson is one of the researchers who worked on the project. He said that the problem "extends" beyond the trade. This means that there are also actions needed in the producer countries where the domestic agricultural markets cause significant forest loss. The study found that although deforestation is a major source of greenhouse gases, it only accounts for 5% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Researchers plan to extend the model to the mining and energy sectors.
McGeever: It's time to reconsider the asset of a "safe haven"
The Iran War and the 'global energy shock' it unleashed could have put an end to the idea that there is a safe-haven investment for everyone.
It's not a novel concept given the poor performance of U.S. Treasuries after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2004. The extraordinary fall in gold prices'since the U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran on 28 February' has brought it into the spotlight.
In times of economic, geopolitical or financial instability, investors flock to assets like Treasuries. The dollar, Swiss Franc and especially gold. These are the assets that will most likely serve as a safe haven in times of crisis.
Gold has been a safe haven for non-financial assets, especially in times of inflation. Gold has not only performed poorly in the current crisis, but it is also one of the most underperforming assets.
It has lag behind high-yielding credit, emerging markets stocks, and frontier market stocks. Silver was the only asset that has performed better than it, and this is because of a speculative boom.
Gold has fallen 17% in March so far, and is on course to have its worst month since 1982. This is astonishing in a month marked by the worst Middle East conflict, biggest global energy crisis, accelerating inflation, and $6 trillion worth of global stock value being wiped out.
Around the middle of 2012, gold began to be untethered by whatever economic fundamentals were underlying it. Retail investors, momentum traders, and machines chased gold higher as central bank demand cooled. It culminated in a January high of $5 595 per ounce. This "fear of losing out" (FOMO), euphoria soon turned into widespread liquidation and drowned out any "FTQ", or flight to quality, demand sparked by this crisis.
PLENTY OF REASONS TO SELL, FEW TO BUY
The dollar and U.S. Treasuries are not much better.
The dollar has risen but only by less than 2 percent. The Federal Reserve is not the only major central bank that will likely tighten its policy this year.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that many central banks from Asia and the Middle East will likely look to reduce their FX reserves to cover their increased import costs, to prevent their currencies weakening excessively, and to cushion any inflation shock.
This will cap dollar and could be a greater drag on U.S. Treasuries. This may have already begun. The amount of Treasuries that are held by the New York Fed for global central banks fell by around $75 billion over the past four weeks.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank estimate that this is equivalent to around $60 billion in sales by the official foreign sector. This would be the second-largest net sale since the COVID-19 Pandemic. It's true that the Treasuries Market is the most liquid market in the world. But it is no longer considered the safest.
The Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen are both affected by domestic problems. Both currencies have historically enjoyed current-account deficits and low rates of inflation.
The Swiss National Bank has stated that it is more willing to intervene on the foreign exchange markets due to currency appreciation. The yen is already at multi-decade lows and doesn't hold much appeal, given that Japan imports most of its energy.
Investors need to be flexible and more creative in the current turmoil. Trading strategies are often more effective than buying safe-haven assets. The response to each crisis depends on its origin, for example, buying energy stocks during an energy crisis, or buying defense stocks during a conflict.
Cash is the one asset that seems to always do well during a crisis or even an inflationary supply shock. U.S. Money Market Funds have grown by about $60 billion since the 28th of February to a record $7.86 trillion. You shouldn't bet against the total exceeding $8 trillion within weeks.
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(source: Reuters)