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Analysts warn that US gasoline prices will rise after the attack on Iran

Analysts say that the U.S. retail average gasoline price is set to surpass $3 per gallon for the first time since?more than 3 months on Monday as the conflict between Iran and the United States 'interrupts the global oil flow.

Price inflation is a big concern for voters, and that could be a major problem for Donald Trump's Republican Party as we approach the November midterm elections. Trump has falsely claimed credit for lowering gasoline prices many times since he returned to office in 2017.

Patrick De Haan is an analyst with GasBuddy, a retailer that tracks retail prices. He believes the average pump price could exceed $3 per gallon for the first time in this year on Monday. GasBuddy's data shows that prices last exceeded $3 in the United States in November 2025. In February, they were as low at $2.85 per gallon.

"Oil is the first to move." De Haan wrote in a post on his blog that gasoline would follow, but slowly.

Iran, one of the top oil producers in the world, has said that it will no longer allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. airstrikes and Israeli airstrikes killed its Supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

Hormuz, a major chokepoint in the Middle East Gulf, is where around a fifth (or more) of all oil flowing through tankers. Three tankers were damaged in the area, and major shippers said that they would 'avoid the Strait.

On Sunday, Brent crude rose 10% to $80 per barrel on the open market due to the increasing impact. Some analysts predict Brent could reach $100 if the Middle East enters a new war.

Bob McNally, President of Rapidan Energy Group an 'energy consultancy,' said that the White House has so far accepted the political risks associated with higher oil prices in order to achieve its foreign policy goals.

McNally stated that "their eyes are open to the risks, and I anticipate they will focus their attention on reducing the time Iran has left to control the energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz."

McNally added that the White House might also indicate a willingness for it to release oil out of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to keep prices down.

Joe Biden, the former U.S. president, had authorized an historic drawdown of SPR in 2020 to address rising prices following Russia's invasion. Trump and other Republicans strongly criticized this move.

The White House didn't immediately respond to comments.

SEASONAL DEMAND

De Haan stated that gasoline prices in the United States had already been rising before the U.S. strike on Iran. Refiners began producing a more expensive summer-grade fuel in recent weeks, which was mandated by environmental regulations in order to reduce air pollution during warmer weather.

The demand for gasoline in the United States also tends peak during the summer holiday season.

"We were set to rise to $3.10-3.25 per gallon with a peaceful Persian Gulf." "We'll get there very soon and the actions of the last 48-hours puts higher numbers into play," said Tom Kloza. Senior adviser at fuel supplier Gulf.

He said that a $5 increase in crude oil per barrel should translate into an increase of 12 cents for each gallon of gasoline or diesel. However, some suppliers had already increased wholesale prices up to 25 cents.

Prices are rising after months of declining prices, mainly due to high inventories and weak demand growth. These large stockpiles could provide a buffer against global market disruptions, and even temper current price spikes.

According to the most recent government data, the U.S. gasoline stock was 254.8 million barrels on February 20. This is near their highest level since the coronavirus epidemic. These stocks are equivalent to 30 days of supply.

De Haan stated that "I expect (price volatility) to be high tonight. However, markets should start to calm down after the first furious hours." (Reporting from Shariq Khan, New York; Editing by Richard Valdmanis).

(source: Reuters)