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Wildfires in Canada are impacting oil supply
The wildfires in Canada's oil producing province of Alberta has reduced Canada's daily crude output by approximately 7%. The following is a list of oil production sites that have been affected so far. CENOVUS Energy - CHRISTINA LAKE SITE: On May 29, Cenovus began to shut down production of approximately 238,000 barrels a day at its Christina Lake facility south of Fort McMurray in Alberta. The company stated that it was not aware of any damages to its infrastructure, and anticipates a full site restart in the near future. CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES – JACKFISH LAKE: Canada’s largest oil-and-gas producer announced on May 31 that it had evacuated its Jackfish 1 thermal-in-situ operations south of Fort McMurray in Alberta, and completed a safe, temporary shutdown of approximately 36.500 bpd bitumen production. MEG ENERGY CHRISTINA LAKE REGIONAL PROJECT MEG, an oil sands firm, announced on May 31 that it had evacuated all non-essential staff from the Christina Lake Regional Project Site south of Fort McMurray. The company stated that the wildfire damaged the power line connecting MEG's Phase 2B project with Alberta's electrical grid. This was causing delays in the startup of MEG operations. These represent about 70,000 bpd in production. Amanda Stephenson reports from Calgary.
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Smoke from Canadian wildfires spreads to US Midwest
The smoke from three wildfires in Canada is now spreading to the Upper Midwest of the United States, bringing back memories of the heavy pollution that drifted down from Canada during the worst fire season ever recorded two years ago. Smoke pollution is already drifting to Minnesota and other states nearby. In the coming days it is expected to reach New York City and other East Coast Cities, posing health risks to tens or millions of people who live there. Doug Brugge is a researcher in public health at the University of Connecticut School of Medicine. He said that airborne particulate matters are the greatest environmental health risks we know of. It causes respiratory, cardiovascular and neurological damage, and these smoke plumes are at high levels in comparison to what Americans are usually exposed to. Since the beginning of May, scores of wildfires have spread across Canada. They forced thousands of people to evacuate and disrupted crude oil production. According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center, there were over 200 active fires on Monday. Of those, 106 were out-of-control. The majority of the fires have occurred in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The current crisis is still not close to the 17 million hectares that burned in 2023. Ely, Minnesota near the Manitoba border was one of the worst places in the U.S. on Tuesday for air pollution. According to IQAir's website, which monitors air pollution around the globe, it registered a "hazardous air quality index" reading of 336. According to the website, an air quality rating below 50 is "good." Readings between 100-300 are considered "unhealthy," "very unhealthy," or "very unhealthy," while readings higher than this are considered "hazardous." The AQI in Duluth (Minnesota) was 309 by midmorning on Tuesday. In Flin Flon (Manitoba), about 1,300 km to the north, in an area where Canadian wildfires have been concentrated, it was 359. In IQAir’s list of major cities around the world, Minneapolis ranked second with a 210 rating, behind only Kuwait City which led the list, with a reading of 318. VULNERABLE PEOPLE According to Brugge, children, the elderly, and those with chronic respiratory, cardiac and other illnesses, such as cardiovascular disease, are the most susceptible to the effects caused by smoke. He said that the risk of hospitalization or death was low for people who were healthy and young. There is evidence, however, that air pollution increases blood pressure and inflammation in these people. The problem is worse in older buildings. Experts have stated that the concentration of wildfire pollution indoors can be as high as 70% higher than outside if there is a poor seal on a building. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommends that people refrain from indoor activities which can cause fine particles to be released into the air. This includes smoking, broiling or frying food, burning incense or candles, or vacuuming without using a HEPA-filter. According to a recent California study, exposure to wildfire smoke can also increase the risk of lung cancer patients dying, especially among non-smokers. However, certain cancer treatments may mitigate this effect. Some farmers, however, believe that the fires' effects are not entirely negative. On online forums such as Facebook, some farmers claim that their best harvests have come from years when there was a pall of smoke from wildfires from Canada. They believe that the smoke can protect crops vulnerable from scorching sun.
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Russian billionaire: SAP replacement is expensive but essential
Alexey Mordashov, a Russian steel billionaire, said that creating a home-grown alternative to SAP's widely used business software will take more time and money than expected but it is a matter for survival. SAP is a software company that makes software to help businesses manage everything from marketing, human resources, and logistics, to procurement and procurement. SAP supplied software to Russia's biggest companies, such as airline Aeroflot and Russian Railways. However, it curtailed business after Moscow sent troops to Ukraine in March 2022, and eventually stopped operations. Mordashov's steelmaker Severstal and Sibur, a petrochemicals company, have been working together to find an alternative SAP software. He said, "We've done a lot of research on this issue in the last year. But it turns out that everything has become more complicated and expensive, requiring more precise refinement." He added, "We know the importance of completing this task...because we must survive." Before the Ukraine conflict, SAP held 60% of the Russian business software market. The rest was split between Microsoft and Oracle. Many Russian companies still use SAP software that was pre-installed, but they do not have access to the updates or support provided by the German company. This leaves their systems susceptible to failure. Mordashov's remarks highlighted the difficulties Russian companies face in developing alternatives to Western software while facing Western sanctions. Severstal and Sibur originally teamed up to create software with the domestic software manufacturer Consist, but they have now ended their partnership. Severstal has now begun to look at solutions offered by Business Technologies, a developer. Other Russian companies, such as Russian Railways and the oil company Gazpromneft, have also chosen to work with 1C and plan to launch an alternative SAP software domestically in 2027. (Reporting Anastasia Lyrchikova; additional reporting by Oksana Kobieva; writing by Gleb Brynski, editing Alexandra Hudson).
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Peru expects $4.8 billion in mining investments this year and a slight increase in copper production
Jorge Montero, Peru's Energy and Mines minister, said that he expects the mining investment to reach $4.8 Billion this year and the production of red metal to be at 2.8 Mt. In 2024, Peru produced about 2.7 millions tons of copper. This is a slight decrease from the previous year. Montero, speaking at a media conference, also mentioned the alarming increase in informal and illegal mining, specifically in the Apurimac region and Arequipa region of southern Peru. Top copper mine Las Bambas is controlled by a miner The mine is located in Apruimac. Teck, a Canadian mining company, is developing the Zafranal Copper Project in Arequipa with Mitsubishi Materials. Rise of artisanal Copper Mining The mines have brought the Andean Peruvians into conflict with large miners, but they've also created much-needed income. Peru's north has also been dealing with an increase in illegal gold mining, including recent incidents. The death of 13 miners. (Reporting and writing by Marco Aquino, Daina Beth Solon; editing by Sarah Morland, Natalia Siniawski).
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Moody's warns that local debt markets can protect Africa from funding cuts.
Marie Diron, global head of sovereign risk at Moody's, says that African countries need to develop liquid local debt markets within their own currencies in order to protect themselves from the volatility of global markets and fickle investors. After a series of downgrades and cuts, some credit ratings on the continent are now rising. This is due to the strain the COVID-19 pandemic has put on sovereign financial statements. Diron noted that as geopolitical risks and trade wars roiled global markets, those countries who have increased local funding are doing the best. These include Benin and Ivory Coast. She said in an interview at the Mo Ibrahim Foundation event in Marrakech that "domestic funding" was needed to bridge the gap. Diron stated that the liquidity of South Africa's domestic debt markets has helped to shield its rating and borrowing costs from the turmoil caused by President Donald Trump's antagonistic approach towards President Cyril Ramaphosa and his government. She said that reducing foreign currency exposure, increasing maturity and using revenue efficiently were all key factors in boosting the credit ratings of African countries and their market access. Moody's Research shows that the median interest rates on local currency debts in Africa are around 12%. This compares to 8% in Latin America, and 5.5% in Asian Emerging Markets. These findings highlight cost savings African sovereigns can achieve by developing their local markets. Diron stated that African governments were able to access more financing options in the past decade. These included the World Bank and affordable international bond markets. Sources are now more limited and constrained, as rich nations cut aid and the concessional financing is shrinking. She said that the flow of money from China - a major source for Angola, Zambia and other countries - is now negative, as repayments are due and new lending slows. Diron, speaking of China, said: "We are looking at a couple years where net flows will be negative because repayments will be greater." The decline in oil prices has also affected crude exporters' revenue, particularly Angola. Diron stated that Moody's expects Brent to remain at around $65 per barrel. This is a decrease of about $10 from the previous forecast. Diron stated that multilateral development banks were filling in gaps. However, the amounts are in the "tens and billions" but not enough to cover the $400 billion annual financing gap estimated by the African Development Bank. Moody's also monitored any further cuts to U.S. financing Diron said that international institutions such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the AfDB are all important. She said: "It's a risk to conclude that multilateral banks cannot lend as much money as they do now, at a time where borrowing needs, if anything are increasing."
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IAEA chief: No way to restart Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant at this time
The head of UN's nuclear watchdog stated on Tuesday that the conditions for restarting Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia plant, which is occupied by Russia, do not exist due to the lack of cooling water and the absence a stable electricity supply. In an interview with the Kyiv-based IAEA director general Rafael Grossi, he said that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant would need to be restarted by pumping water from the Dnipro River. In March 2022, Russia occupied the facility in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Region, just a few months after it invaded its neighbor. Grossi stated that the Russians "never hid the fact" they wanted to restart the factory, but would not be able do so anytime soon. "We do not have a situation where the plant is about to restart imminently." Grossi stated that it would be a long time before the plant could be restarted. The IAEA chief said that before restarting the plant, all of its machinery would be inspected thoroughly. The Ukraine has stated that a Russian attempt to restart the Zaporizhzhia Plant would be dangerous as they are not certified operators. Grossi stated that Russian nuclear staff was capable of restarting the reactor, and the certification issue was more political than technical. Ukraine also protested against the IAEA monitoring mission that visited the plant via Russian-occupied territory. Grossi explained that he was doing this to protect his staff and because he did not yet have the guarantees necessary from the Russians to transit IAEA personnel safely through the frontlines into Ukraine-controlled territory as a number of times previously. (Reporting and editing by William Maclean, Max Hunder)
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Zimbabwe issues permits to cull at least 50 elephants
Wildlife authorities in Zimbabwe said that they have issued permits for the culling of at least 50 elephants from a reserve with three times as many elephants as it can support. Zimbabwe Parks and Wildlife Management Authority stated in a press release that the Save Valley Conservancy, in southern Zimbabwe, is home to approximately 2,550 elephants. However, it only has "carrying capacities" for 800 elephants. In the last five years, the conservancy has already relocated 200 elephants from its reserve to another reserve to control elephant numbers. The meat from the cull is distributed to the locals for consumption, and the ivory of the animals killed will be given to the park authority. Zimbabwe has one of the world's largest elephant populations. Climate change has exacerbated conflict between humans and wildlife as elephants are encroaching on human settlements in search of water and food. Last year, the country in Southern Africa authorized a second cull of around 200 elephants. This was the first time since 1988. Authorities said at the time they would distribute the meat from the cull among communities that were suffering a severe drought in the region. This was shortly after Namibia announced it would do so. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Winning and William Maclean; Alessandro Parodi, Nelson Banya)
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Liulin Senze Coal & Aluminum, a Chinese company, will produce alumina using low-grade ore
The developer of the new technology said that in July, a Chinese company Liulin Senze Coal & Aluminum would begin producing alumina in its Shanxi factory from low-grade bauxite thanks to a technology developed in France. China's bauxite reserves are large, but many of them are of poor quality. This makes the country dependent on imports of bauxite to meet the demand for alumina, a critical input for the production of aluminium. China is the largest producer of aluminum in the world. Romain Girbal, CEO of IB2, said that the process developed by French green technology company IB2 allows low-grade bauxite to be converted into high-quality aluminum by neutralizing impurities like silica and sulfur. He said that the plant in Shanxi is expected to produce 50,000 tons of bauxite a month by December, and IB2 plans to increase this to 3,000,000 tons per year over the next two-years. He said that IB2 technology was being used in a 22-year contract signed with Liulin Senze Coal & Aluminum. Liulin Senze Coal & Aluminum has not responded to any requests for comment. Girbal stated that IB2 has advanced discussions about providing technology with five other Chinese manufacturers. The technology may help China reduce its reliance on imported Bauxite to produce alumina, but the long-term production scale that can be achieved using this technology is still unknown. The global bauxite supply is in doubt after Guinea's military-led government cancelled 129 mineral exploration licenses, including some relating to bauxite. Customs data shows that Chinese bauxite exports increased 12.4% in 2024, from 158.77 to 158.77 millions tons. According to the International Aluminium Institute, China produced 72 million tonnes of primary aluminum last year. Reporting from Ashitha Shivaprasad, Bengaluru. Editing by Pratima Deai and Susan Fenton.
OPEC+'s crude production hike comes amid tepid Asian demand for oil: Russell
The crude oil markets pay attention to what OPEC+ has to say, but less so to what they actually do when it comes down to supplying the world's biggest commodity.
Eight members of a wider group who had implemented voluntary production reductions met over the weekend to decide on a rise in output of 411,000 barrels per daily (bpd) for July, which would be the third consecutive month of this increase.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates will each receive more than half the increase in production.
There are still two questions to be answered.
Will the eight parties to the agreement increase their output by the agreed-upon volumes? And if so, will they be able to find buyers for this additional oil?
It's important to note that OPEC+ and most of the market talk about production. However, the key metric for setting the price is the export volume of crude oil.
Saudi Arabia's exports were actually lower in April, at 5.75 million barrels per day, compared to March's 5,80 million barrels per day, according data collected by commodity analysts Kpler.
Kpler data shows that Saudi Arabian exports jumped to 6.0 millions bpd by May and are expected even higher in June. This suggests that there's a delay between the output agreements and exports.
The Russian crude oil exports by sea were 5,07 million barrels per day in March. They remained relatively flat at 5,12 million barrels per day in April before dropping to 4,82 million in late April. This shows that the increase in production agreed upon did not translate into increased shipments.
INVENTORIES and DEMAND
It is still unclear whether additional oil will be needed in Asia, the region that imports most oil.
In a statement released after the May 31, OPEC+ reiterated that it believes the global oil markets have "healthy" foundations, "as reflected by low inventories."
They have maintained this position since April, when they began to ease the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million bpd.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' monthly report for the month of May shows that crude inventories rose by 21.4 millions barrels in March to 1.323 trillion barrels. This is 139,000,000 barrels less than the annual average between 2015 and 2019.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development inventories are below pre-COVID levels, and were rising even before OPEC+ began increasing output.
Inventories are not as visible outside of the OECD, especially in China. China is the largest crude oil consumer worldwide.
Although China does not disclose its commercial and strategic stocks, it is possible to estimate the surplus crude by subtracting the volume of refined oil from the total domestic production and inventory.
China's oil surplus has risen in recent months. It reached 1.98 million barrels per day in April, its highest level since June 2023. This is up from 1.74million barrels per day in March.
China has increased its oil imports since March and April, as it procured discounted cargoes of Iranian and Russian crude.
But it seems that China's appetite has waned for crude in May, despite lower global prices.
Kpler estimates that China's seaborne exports were 9.43 million barrels per day in May, down from 10.46 in April and 10.45 in March.
ASIA IMPORTS
China's lower appetite in May led to a decline in arrivals in Asia. Kpler estimates 24.2 million bpd. This is down from 24,85 million bpd. in April.
Asia's crude oil imports by sea are estimated to be 24.45 millions bpd for the first five month of this year. This is down 320,000 bpd compared to the same period in the previous year.
The demand for oil in Asia has not increased despite the drop of Brent crude futures by nearly 30% between mid-January to the lowest price this year, $58.50 per barrel on May 5.
The impact of lower oil prices is still being felt. While demand could rise in the coming months due to lower prices, it's possible that economic uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump's tariff war has crimped fuel consumption.
Brent futures rose by over $1 on Monday to $63.84 per barrel.
The increase in prices indicates that the market was expecting a higher output from the OPEC+ eight-member group for July.
The Trump trade war has created distortions that have a significant impact on the outlook for demand.
There is uncertainty about the future of supply and whether OPEC+ top producers will seek to increase export volumes or compete for market share.
These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
(source: Reuters)