Latest News

OPEC presents international oil outlook to 2050, sees no peak demand

OPEC raised its forecasts for world oil need for the medium and long term in an annual outlook, mentioning development led by India, Africa and the Middle East and a slower shift to electrical lorries and cleaner fuels.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its 2024 World Oil Outlook released on Tuesday, sees demand growing for a longer period than other forecasters like BP and the International Energy Company, which see oil usage peaking this years.

A longer period of rising intake would be an increase for OPEC, whose 12 members depend upon oil income. In assistance of its view, OPEC stated it expected more push back on enthusiastic tidy energy targets, and mentioned plans by several global carmakers to scale down electrification goals.

There is no peak oil need on the horizon, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword to the report being launched in Brazil, a non-member of OPEC with which the group is seeking to form closer ties.

Over the previous year, there has actually been further recognition that the world can just phase in brand-new energy sources at scale when they are really all set.

OPEC expects world oil demand to reach 118.9 million barrels a day (bpd) by 2045, around 2.9 million bpd higher than expected in last year's report. The report rolled out its timeline to 2050 and anticipates demand to strike 120.1 million bpd by then.

That's far above other 2050 forecasts from the market. BP projects oil usage will peak in 2025 and decline to 75 million bpd in 2050. Exxon Mobil expects oil need to remain above 100 million bpd through 2050, comparable to today's level.

OPEC has been calling for more oil industry financial investment and stated the sector needs $17.4 trillion to be spent to 2050, compared with $14 trillion needed by 2045 estimated last year.

All policymakers and stakeholders require to collaborate to make sure a long-term investment-friendly climate, Al Ghais composed.

HIGHER 2029 PROJECTION THAN IEA

OPEC also raised its medium term demand forecasts, citing a. stronger financial background than last year as inflation pressure. wanes and reserve banks start to lower rate of interest.

World demand in 2028 will reach 111 million bpd, OPEC stated,. and 112.3 million bpd in 2029. The 2028 figure is up 800,000 bpd. from in 2015's prediction.

OPEC's 2029 projection is more than 6 million bpd greater than. that of the IEA, which stated in June need will plateau in 2029. at 105.6 million bpd. The gap is larger than the combined output. of OPEC members Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

In 2020, OPEC made a shift when the pandemic hit oil. demand, saying usage would plateau in the late 2030s. It. has started raising projections once again as oil use has recuperated.

By 2050, there will be 2.9 billion automobiles on the road, up. 1.2 billion from 2023, OPEC projection. Despite electrical vehicle. development, cars powered by a combustion engine will represent. more than 70% of the international fleet in 2050, the report said.

Electric automobiles are poised for a bigger market share, however. challenges stay, such as electrical power grids, battery. manufacturing capacity and access to critical minerals, it. said.

OPEC and its allies, referred to as OPEC+, are cutting supply to. support the market. The report sees OPEC+'s share of the oil. market increasing to 52% in 2050 from 49% in 2023 as U.S. output. peaks in 2030 and non-OPEC+ output does so in the early 2030s.

(source: Reuters)