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After Congo extended its export ban, China cobalt prices hit a 3-month high.
The price of cobalt in China, the world's largest consumer of the material, jumped Monday to its highest level in more than three months as the Democratic Republic of Congo extended the export ban. This rekindled supply concerns. Congo, world's largest cobalt producer, has extended its ban for another three months, after initially imposing a four month restriction in February, to reduce the oversupply of this material used in electric vehicle batteries. The cobalt futures contract with the most activity on China's Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange rose more than 9%, reaching its highest level since March 14, at 254 yuan per kilogram ($35.34). Analysts at Guosen Metal stated that "the seven-month ban on exports by Congo will reduce global supply of cobalt by over 100,000 metric tonnes and will cause a shortage in supply in the domestic market." Export ban triggered after cobalt prices hit historically low levels. Automakers were hurt and miners increased output of copper (from which cobalt can be extracted as a co-product) to take advantage of high prices. China's CMOC Group - the world's largest cobalt producer - said that the extension would not have a significant impact on its operating results. A CMOC spokesperson stated that "a stable and healthy market is conducive to sustainable development and continuous growth in demand for cobalt product," adding that operations at the Tenke Fungurume Mining site and Kisanfu Mining site are currently normal. Reports earlier this month stated that the world's second largest cobalt producer, Glencore, had declared force majeure for some cobalt deliveries from Congo, days after the Congolese government banned exports of battery material. Reporting by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Sumana Nandy; editing by Sumana Niandy.
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Holcim completes spin off of North American business
Holcim completed the spin-off its North American business. Shares in the separate company - Amrize- will begin trading in Zurich on Monday and New York the following day. The Swiss cement manufacturer Holcim said that it would spin off the company to focus on the different dynamics of the North American and global markets. Holcim's future focus will be on Europe, Latin America and North Africa, while Amrize operates in the United States of America and Canada. Holcim CEO Miljan Gutovic said: "This is a momentous occasion for Holcim, as we embark on a new journey as independent companies." Holcim announced its new strategy in March. It said that it would aim for an average annual increase in earnings before taxes and interest of between 6% and 10% by 2030. This growth will be driven by acquisitions and mergers. Amrize, whose sales reached $11.7 billion by 2024, aims to grow at a rate of 5-8% per year. It wants to grow its core operating profits by 8-11% from $3.2 billion in 2025-2028. (Reporting and editing by Miranda Murray, Miranda Revill)
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Indonesian weather agency revised outlook for shorter dry season by 2025
Most areas in Indonesia will see a shorter-than-expected dry season this year due to higher-than-normal precipitation thus far, the country's weather agency said, which is expected to boost the rice crop in Southeast Asia's largest economy. The Indonesian Meteorology and Geophysics Agency had predicted that the dry season would be normal this year. It began in April for most areas and reached its peak from June to August. In a weekend statement, Dwikorita Karanawati, the head of the agency, said: "Our prediction shows there was an anomaly with higher-than-normal rainfall... This becomes the basis for predicting the delayed dry season in this year." Dwikorita, who said that the longer wet period is expected to benefit farmers of rice because of the water supply remaining available, added that as of early June only 19% have seen the dry seasons begin. The statistics bureau reported that Indonesia's rice production in the period January to July is expected to increase by 14.93% annually to 21,76 million metric tonnes. The Indonesian rice production was to be 32 million tons in this year. This is higher than the 30.62 million tons of last year. Dwikorita stated that higher-than-normal rain is expected to fall in the southern parts of Sumatra, Java, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara, and West Nusa Tenggara Provinces. She added that the dry season would first affect some parts of Sumatra and Borneo. Climate change is causing unpredictable weather patterns, and the agency has urged local governments to prepare for this. The agency reported that heavy rains fell in certain parts of Indonesia between January and March. In early March, torrential rains caused floods up to three metres high in Jakarta, Indonesia's capital. Thousands were forced to evacuate. (Reporting and editing by Gibran Pshimam, Vijay Kishore and Ananda Teresia)
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Now the ball is on Iran's court.
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Trump is adding to the uncertainty of the world by involving the United States in yet another Middle East conflict. The word "bombs", or the announcement of an attack by a president on social media is not something that happens very often. The U.S. government says that it is not at war, and will not escalate its actions if Iran achieves peace. It also claimed it did not aim to change the regime in Iran until Trump made a post on social media about this very possibility. Tehran is now in control and hasn't yet attacked any U.S. sites, despite reports that its parliament had approved a plan to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported that such a move will need to be approved by the Supreme National Security Council. Polymarket has even published a book about the probability of Iran closing the Strait. The current figure is 47%. Now, every market analyst is an expert in how to shut down shipping lanes, bunker-busting bombs, and the complexities of enriching Uranium. Market participants are hoping that this U.S. action will not escalate and, if Iran's nuclear plans really do get pushed back by several years, it might make the region more secure. Analysts note that OPEC can add extra supplies if it wants to. Oil is up nearly 2% but still well below the early five-month peaks. Wall St futures have fallen 0.3% after starting with a loss of 1%. European futures have also dropped 0.4%. The dollar is slightly stronger against the euro and the yen. This reflects the EU's and Japan's reliance on LNG and imported oil, as well as the U.S. position as a net-exporter. Treasury yields have increased slightly. There are not as many bids for safe-haven assets. Fed fund futures, however, are down by a small amount, probably on the fear that a sustained increase in energy prices could lead to an inflationary spiral, just as tariffs begin to affect prices. Powell will be grilled on this and Trump's threat to fire him when he appears before Congress on Tuesday or Wednesday. Powell's response to Fed Governor Waller suddenly embracing a rate cut in July will be fascinating, especially since the FOMC choir seemed to have been singing the same cautious hymn. The markets still give a 16% chance that a July move will occur, and they prefer to bet 70% on a move in September. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact - EU and UK pmIs for June ECB President Christine Lagarde's Introduction - Appearances of Fed members Waller Bowman Goolsbee Kugler
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Markets await Iran response as gold falls amid dollar gains
The gold price fell on Monday, as investors favored the dollar after the U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear sites at the weekend. Markets are closely monitoring Iran's reaction. As of 0341 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.2%, at $3,362.29 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.2% to $3378. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that the US strike on Iranian nuclear sites resulted in safe-haven buying flows for the dollar in the currency markets. This USD increase had pegged back gold and caused a subdued performance despite the risks arising from the conflict. Gold became more expensive to other currency holders as the dollar increased by 0.2%. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, raised on Sunday the issue of a regime-change in Iran in the wake of the U.S. strikes that targeted key military sites in Iran over the weekend. Senior officials in the Trump administration warned Tehran to refrain from retaliation. The U.S. dropped bunker-busting bombs weighing 30,000 pounds onto the mountain that overlooks Iran's Fordow Nuclear Site. Iran and Israel have continued to exchange missile attacks. Israeli military spokeswoman said Israeli fighter planes struck military targets in west Iran. Oil prices briefly reached five-month highs on Monday, and shares fell in Asia. But there was no panic selling. In the Federal Reserve's latest report on monetary policy to Congress, published on Friday, it was stated that U.S. inflation remained elevated, and the labor markets were solid. According to Wang Tao, technical analyst, the spot gold price may test support at $3348 an ounce. A break below this level could lead the way towards $3324. Other metals rose in price as well. Spot silver increased 0.2% to $36.07 an ounce. Platinum edged up 0.1% to $1.269.17. Palladium gained 0.2%, to $1.046.62.
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Dalian Iron Ore reaches a new high in a week on the back of improved China demand
Dalian iron-ore futures prices reached their highest level in over a week on Monday, boosted by improved short-term prospects for steelmaking ingredient China. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading 0.5% higher, at 706 Yuan ($98.22). In the morning session, prices reached 709.5 yuan - their highest level since June 13. The benchmark July Iron Ore at the Singapore Exchange rose 0.15% to $93.65 per ton. According to Chinese consultancy Mysteel, hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, increased 0.24% on a weekly basis to 2.422 millions tons as of 20th June. Everbright Futures, a broker, said: "Hot metal production is expected to remain stable in the short-term, which will support iron ore prices." Broker Galaxy Futures stated that the construction materials consumption in China has already weakened as we enter the off-season. The rainy season, which usually begins in June, has already begun and is further dampening the demand. Mysteel, in a separate report, said that the capacity utilisation rate for China's electric arc furnace steelmakers dropped 2.2% from week to week to a low of 54.5%. It attributed this to persistently negative margins. Steelhome data shows that the total stockpiles in China of iron ore increased by 0.9% on a weekly basis to 134.6 millions tons as of 20 June. The dollar index rose 0.12% Monday, mainly due to safe-haven demand. Dollar-denominated investments are less affordable for holders of currencies other than the greenback. Coke and coking coal, which are both used to make steel, traded in a sideways fashion. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen. Hot-rolled coil, wire rod and rebar all fell around 0.2%. Stainless steel also lost 0.4%.
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After Congo extended its export ban, China cobalt prices hit a 3-month high.
The price of cobalt in the top consumer China rose to a three-month high Monday as the Democratic Republic of Congo extended its export ban, rekindling supply concerns. Congo, world's largest cobalt producer, has extended its ban for another three months, after having imposed a four month restriction in February, to reduce the oversupply of this material used in electric vehicle batteries. The cobalt futures contract with the most activity on China's Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange rose more than 9%, reaching its highest level since March 14, at 254 yuan (US$35.34) a kilogram. Analysts at Guosen Metal stated that "the seven-month ban on exports by Congo will reduce global supply of cobalt by over 100,000 metric tonnes and will cause a shortage in supply in the domestic market." Export ban was caused by the cobalt price hitting historically low levels. This was due to weak demand by automakers, and miners increasing output of copper (from which cobalt can be extracted as a co-product) in order to take advantage of high prices. Reports earlier in the month stated that the Congo government had suspended the export of battery materials. Glencore declared force majeure for some of its cobalt deliveries. Reporting by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Sumana Niandy; editing by Sumana Naandy.
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South Korea's industry ministry raises concern over US attack on Iran
On Monday, the vice minister of industry in South Korea expressed concerns about the possible impact that recent U.S. attacks on Iran could have on the country's economy. At a meeting held to monitor monthly exports by the Ministry of Industry, Moon Shin-hak, first vice minister for industry, said: "As Middle East situation enters new phase because of the U.S. strike on Iran's nucleus facilities, we are concerned about the impact it will have on our exports." South Korea has Asia's largest economy, and is heavily dependent on exports. On Sunday, officials held an urgent security meeting to assess potential economic impacts of the U.S. war action. Seoul's dependence on crude oil imports - 72% of all imports - from the Middle East has increased. The oil prices rose on Monday, reaching their highest level since January. Market participants are preparing for more price increases amid fears of a possible Iranian retaliation that could include the closure of Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of world crude oil supply passes. His office announced earlier that South Korean President Lee Jae Myung would not be attending the NATO summit in this week due to the uncertainty caused by the Middle East crisis. (Reporting and editing by Kate Mayberry; Ju-min Park)
South African Health Agency calls for phase-out of coal-fired electricity stations
A South African government agency that is influential recommended Thursday that the country phase out its coal-fired energy stations. It published a study over ten years which showed people who lived near these power plants were 6% more susceptible to dying than those living elsewhere.
South African officials, as well as citizens, are arguing over how quickly the country should implement a programme partly funded by donors to move away from coal and towards solar and wind power. The fossil fuel is responsible for three-quarters of the country's power, and 90,000 jobs are supported by it.
The South African Medical Research Council and the Department for International Development of Britain (DFID), in a report, collected and compared nearly 3 million death records from 1997-2018.
The study found that communities near power plants had higher rates of birth defects, and deaths among all age groups -- particularly from heart and lung diseases.
Caradee Wright, co-author of the report in Pretoria, said: "Some recommendations include... the decommissioning of power stations."
She said, "We know... it won't happen right away." "But... (coal-fired energy) has such a negative effect on human health."
Wright called for a more strict enforcement of the harmful emission limits in South Africa’s coal belt. The region is home to 3.6 million people.
Eskom, the state-owned power company, and Sasol, the coal-to liquid fuel producer, are often exempted from these limits by the African National Congress, which is divided on the future of coal-fired plants in the country.
(source: Reuters)