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Lenders tell investors to show them the money as bond chaos spreads

Lenders tell investors to show them the money as bond chaos spreads
Lenders tell investors to show them the money as bond chaos spreads

Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

Maybe promising to borrow $1.3 billion to 'give' to each American who votes for your party wasn’t a good idea. This fiscal excess at a time of high inflation may not have directly caused the latest bond market 'rout', but it sure did not help.

Bond markets are sending a message to governments around the world: If you want to continue borrowing, you will have to pay more. Much more. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield hit a three-year high in Asia of 4.9708%, closing in on 5% which could slow down the economy and disrupt the stock markets.

The Australian bond yields reached 15-year highs.?New Zealand swap rate surged by 22 basis points. Even the Japanese benchmark government's yield rose 9 basis points as traders bet that central banks will have to raise rates to stop inflation running wild.

Brent crude's surge back above $108 per barrel - now more than?50% higher from its lows in July - is the primary culprit. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and the narrow Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of Red Sea could fall to Houthi control following the?capture of the Red Sea port of Mokha.

This would lead to more shipments being rerouted through the Suez Canal or around Africa. This would create additional logistical problems and add weeks to Asian journeys. Imagine the impact on oil prices.

Asia's shares are in the red, with Japan's Nikkei down over 2% and South Korea's KOSPI down more than 2%. European stock exchanges are likely to open calmer, as yields in Europe have already reached multi-decade highs. Wall Street?futures in Asia were not much different, as they awaited the arrival of liquidity.

The U.S. CPI is the key factor that will determine the Federal Reserve's policy. It could also seal the deal for an increase in interest rates next week.

Forecasts center?on an increase of 0.2% monthly in the core CPI measure, but the Fed's decision may come down to the 2nd or 3rd decimal places in the figure. Futures indicate a 70% chance that the Fed will increase rates on Wednesday.

A "hot" result could easily push 10-year Treasury yields over the psychologically difficult 5% barrier. Donald Trump is watching and he will not be happy. It is clear that interest rates will remain higher, as the Gulf conflict may continue beyond the U.S. Midterm Elections, if not years.

The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday.

CPI data in the U.S. for August

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report

U.K. Industrial output and trade figures for July

(source: Reuters)