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Sources: Trafigura is one of three bidders to buy a minority stake in South Africa’s Natref oil refining company.
Two sources familiar with the matter said that Trafigura, a global commodities trader, is "among" three companies competing for a 36.36 percent stake in Natref Refinery of South African petrochemical giant Sasol. After the British-based Prax group, which bought the minority stake in South Africa's sole inland crude oil refining plant from TotalEnergies two years ago for an undisclosed amount, went into bankruptcy in 2025, the remaining shares in the 108.500 barrels per daily plant are up for sale. South?African fuels are among the biggest in Africa, and analysts predict that it will continue to grow for?the near future. This is in contrast to other regions like Europe where a switch to greener energy has slowed oil demand. Trafigura has not been in exclusive talks with Trafigura about the asset. They declined to identify themselves as they were not authorized to speak in public. SASOL HOLDS MAJORITY INTERESTS Simon Baloyi, CEO of Sasol and former Natref majority shareholder, said in an interview with the. Sasol refused to comment further on the request for a comment from Prax. Two sources claimed that two black-owned South African companies are also in the race and could be supported by a western partner at a later stage. South Africa, since the end of white minority apartheid rule in 1994 has been pursuing a policy of Black Economic Empowerment. This is aimed at opening up sectors of its economy that were previously closed to the Black majority. Sources declined to name them due to the sensitive nature of the bids in progress and the possible impact on their positions. Trafigura competes in South Africa with rivals such as Vitol, Glencore, and others. Trafigura signed a $1 billion deal last month with Gabon for crude deliveries spread over seven years. Reporting by Wendell Roelf, Ahmad Ghaddar, and Rob Harvey in London; Nelson Banya at Johannesburg; and editing by Alex Lawler & Barbara Lewis.
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Wall Street regulators scrap climate regulation of Biden's time
According to an 'notice' on the US. Budget office website. The Securities and Exchange Commission made the move a year ago, after refusing to say to a federal judge whether it intended to either change the rule or defend its 2024 regulations from industry-backed legal challenges which 'dogged' the agency’s rule-making under the previous administration. Donald Trump has rejected 'the scientific consensus regarding climate change, and his administration is moving to undo the?related regulations that were adopted by former president Joe Biden. Paul Atkins, SEC chair, said in a statement that the agency is working to rescind this rule and return to the SEC’s “core mandate” of requiring corporate disclosures to focus on information material to investors. He said that was "in accordance with its legal authority." The SEC, under former president Joe Biden adopted watered down rules that required publicly traded companies tell investors about climate related?risks and emissions, and expenditure. Republican-led state and an industry group immediately challenged this in court. The SEC then'stayed' the rule until the court battles were resolved. In March last year, under 'Republican President Donald Trump,' the SEC decided to stop defending the rule in court. Industry and conservative critics claimed that the SEC had exceeded its legal authority. The appeals court suspended the case. After the Office of?Management?and Budget finishes reviewing the draft regulations of the SEC, the SEC could?act? on the proposal. Uncertain is the timeline for final decision. Reporting by Douglas Gillison, Washington; editing by Chizu Nomiyama
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Gold recovers from a more than a month-low; Middle East threats linger
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, after hitting a'more than one-month-low in the previous session. Investors assessed the fragile Middle East ceasefire and its potential impact on inflation expectations and interest rate expectations. Gold spot was up 1% at $4,566.79 an ounce by 8:45 am EDT (1245 GMT) after it reached its lowest level on Monday since March 31. U.S. Gold Futures rose 1% to $4,576,60. Oil prices are also easing, which is supporting the market. The market will continue to monitor headlines but could shift its focus towards economic data, said Jim Wyckoff, a market analyst at American Gold Exchange. He added, "Gold bulls must have a fundamentally significant spark in order to gain their footing." The truce in the Middle East is under threat after the U.S. fired on Iran in the Gulf in their struggle to control the Strait of Hormuz. Since the attacks on February 28, the narrow waterway that carries global oil, fertiliser, and other commodities has been closed. This has led to a rise in prices all over. The oil prices fell on Tuesday. However, the exchange of fires limited losses. Energy prices are rising, which could lead to inflation and delay the easing cycle of central banks. Gold is often seen as a safe haven against inflation and unpredictability, but its appeal tends wane at high interest rates, when rising yields make other assets less appealing. Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst for City Index. He said that the demand for safe-haven assets remains even though its influence has weakened. Gold?is being treated more as a risky asset. "However, the need to hedge against inflation,?along with persistent central bank purchases, has helped limit further downside movements so far," Razaqzada stated. The head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Monday that the global economy may face a "much more serious outcome"? if the Middle East conflict drags into 2027 and oil prices reach $125 per barrel. This week, U.S. data will include the ADP Employment Report, April payrolls, and job opening figures. Silver spot rose 1.1%, to $73.53, while platinum grew 2%, to $1984.55, and Palladium climbed 2.4%, to $1515.05. Ashitha Shivaprasad reports from Bengaluru. Mark Potter edited the article.
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The US trade deficit widened in March due to imports, while petroleum exports rose
The U.S. Trade Deficit widened during 'March, as a 'artificial intelligence investment boom 'pulled in imports. This more than offset an increase in exports that was partly driven by the Middle East conflict. The Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau, part of the Commerce Department, reported that the trade deficit grew 4.4% in March to $60.3 billion. The economists polled by?by predicted that the trade deficit would rise to $60.9 billion in march. The trade deficit 'diminished by 1.30 percentage points the growth of gross domestic product in the first quarter. The economy grew by 2.0% on an annualized basis last quarter. Imports grew 2.3% in March to $381.2 Billion. Imports of goods rose 3.6%, to $302.2 billion. This was mainly due to the surge in capital products to a record-high $120.7 billion. Exports rose by 2.0% to a record high of $320.9 Billion. Goods exports rose 3.1% to $213.5 Billion, a new record. This was due to an increase in petroleum shipments. U.S. and Israeli 'wars with Iran', which have disrupted oil shipments, raised 'crude prices and caused disruptions in oil shipments, are likely to further increase petroleum exports in the months to come. The U.S. has a large oil export market. Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by ChizuNomiyama
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ROI-Is Wall Street on a boom loop or heading towards a doom loop? McGeever
Wall Street is experiencing a virtuous circle. The expectations of corporate earnings growth and investor returns have pushed benchmark indices to the sky, causing investor optimism to soar. This is the "boom?loop " that Bank of America analysts coined. Or, are we sown the seeds of a reversal which could lead to turbulence? How investors interpret signals is important. Below are a series of charts & graphics that highlight a few key trends behind today's eye popping headline index numbers. These stretched metrics could indicate that the market has become dangerously overvalued or that we are in the beginning stages of a hyper-bullish market fueled by artificial intelligence. This is the trillion-dollar problem. DIVIDEND YIELDS ULTRA-LOW S&P 500 Dividend Yield - total dividends divided against the value of index - currently stands at just 1.1%. This is only 50 basis points away from the lowest level seen in the last half-century and since 2000. A higher S&P dividend yield indicates that the index is cheap and vice versa. A lower yield could also reflect that dividends are a smaller part of total returns for investors than they were in the past. It is clear that U.S. stocks are pricing in optimism. Remember that the last time dividends yields were so low was in 2000 when the dotcom boom burst. SKY-HIGH EARNINGS ESTIMATES It is amazing how much the U.S. earning outlook has improved in recent weeks. According to LSEG, the first-quarter growth in earnings per share is projected at 28%. This is almost twice what was expected on April 1 by consensus. The big tech industry is largely responsible for this. Communication services earnings will rise by over 55% in the first quarter of this year compared to the fourth quarter last year. Information technology earnings are expected to increase by nearly 52% to $189 billion. Analysts expect a 46% increase in EPS this year. On April 1, the consensus was 18% and on January 1, it was below 8%. NEGATIVE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM The "equity premium", or the difference between equity and bond yields, has dropped below zero. It is now at its lowest level since July of last year and is fast approaching 2024's low of minus 0.7%. The ERP has been negative since 1999. A negative ERP is a sign of either high stock prices or low bond prices. Or both. Prices may not be stretched if they're supported by sound fundamental reasons. What is the latest verdict? It depends if you believe the AI tech boom is going to continue to drive earnings. AI CAPEX SET RECORDS The U.S. has experienced one of the largest corporate investment booms ever, as megacap hyperscalers are building the infrastructure which will?underpin the AI revolution. The current buildout is larger than the Manhattan Project or Space Race and is similar to the railroad boom of the 19th century. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have just increased their forecasts of how high this spending will rise. Morgan Stanley now expects that the five largest U.S. hyperscalers will spend $800 billion on AI this year, and $1.1 trillion in 2019. This is up from their previous predictions of $765 billion and $850 billion. Goldman's analyst expects cumulative AI infrastructure expenditure to reach $7.6 trillion in 2031. Both bullish and negative market views are supported by these staggering?figures. The bull wonders how an investment of this magnitude can produce anything other than Wall Street's record-breaking run? The bear wonders how the project will be funded and, most importantly, if?these gargantuan expenditures can generate a return on investment that is sufficient. Answers to these questions will determine the future of Wall Street and?U.S. The answers to these questions will determine how Wall Street and the?U.S. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Chambers of Commerce predict that German exports will flatline in this year due to Middle East uncertainty
The Chambers of Commerce said that German exports will stagnate in this year. They lowered their previous forecasts for a slight increase as the companies in Europe's biggest economy are facing?supply-chain snarls, and uncertainty due to the Iran War. The German Chambers of Industry and Commerce had previously predicted a 1.0% rise in exports of both goods and services. Volker Treier is the head of DIHK's foreign trade. In a survey conducted by DIHK, 4500 German companies that operate abroad reported that high energy prices are a major business risk. This is more than twice the number of respondents in 2025. 40% also cited disruptions to supply chains, and 37% cited raw material costs. A MORE PESSIMISTIC PENSION The survey also revealed that 32% of respondents were pessimistic regarding the medium-term economic outlook. They believe the economy will worsen over the next year as the Iran War exposes the vulnerabilities in global supply chain. This is an 8-point increase from DIHK's last survey, which was officially called the AHK World Business Outlook and conducted before the U.S. vs. Israel war with Iran broke out at the end of February. "This is not just an economic slowdown. "Uncertainty has become the main factor," said?Treier. The authors of the survey said that the geographical impact on German companies with overseas operations is dependent on their dependence on oil and natural gas imports from Gulf Region. The majority of companies in Asia-Pacific, including China, and those 'closest to conflict zones', are sceptical regarding the months ahead. Companies operating in China and the United States, as well as South America's Mercosur region, remain relatively optimistic. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis, Susan Fenton and Miranda Murray)
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Copper prices recover from 3-week lows on the back of bargain-hunting; COMEX is outperforming
Prices of copper rebounded on Wednesday after they hit a?three-week low, as investors benefited from lower prices. Meanwhile, U.S. prices rose on speculations about possible tariffs on the metal. Benchmark 'three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange increased 0.4% to $13,053 a metric ton, in open-outcry official trading after reaching its lowest level since March 13 at $12 780. Shanghai Futures Exchange was closed on Labour Day, which has a pronounced impact on trading. Since the Iran War, copper prices have been on the decline. The slowing of economic growth may affect demand for metals used in construction and electric vehicles, as well as artificial intelligence data centers. On Monday, the U.S. and Iran traded?fire as they fought for control of Strait of Hormuz. Ewa 'Manthey, commodities analyst at ING, said that the escalation between Iran and the U.S. has rekindled concerns about a broader shock - high energy prices, tighter conditions in finance, and a weakened industrial demand. She added that many investors believe the long-term outlook of copper is bullish and some buy at the lowest prices. COMEX copper futures in the U.S. gained 2.5%, to $5.99 per lb. This represents a small premium of around $130 per ton over LME Copper. Manthey pointed out that the arbitrage was pulling the metal to the U.S. The Trump administration is expected to decide on July whether or not to impose tariffs for?refined?copper, insuring it from the global risk-off stress weighing?on the LME. COMEX ?inventories On Monday, the number of short tons (or 558,692 tons metric tons) reached a record high, with 615,852 short tonnes (558,692 tons metric tons), more than doubling in just eight months. LME zinc is up 0.4% to $3,362 per ton in official activity. This seems to ignore the news that two people died in an explosion in Kazakhstan's largest zinc production facility, owned by Glencore. (Reporting by Eric Onstad Additional reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing and Harikrishnan Nair, Vijay Kishore) (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Vijay Kishore, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Oil dips as stocks rise on optimism from investors
The global stock market rose on Tuesday as a result of a string of strong earnings. Meanwhile, the oil price remained above $100 per barrel due to the'simmering hostilities' between the U.S.A. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. The yen was also on traders' minds after it briefly rose in the previous session, fueling speculation about another round of Tokyo intervention. The STOXX 600 index rose 0.5% in Europe. This was boosted by Anheuser-Busch shares, which surpassed expectations with their first-quarter results. Also, Unicredit, an Italian lender, reported record profits for the quarter. U.S. and Iran launched dueling maritime blockades in the Gulf as they fought for control of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. This came shortly after U.S. president Donald Trump launched an effort to move stranded ships and tankers through the crucial energy-trade chokepoint. Maersk reported that the Alliance Fairfax, an U.S. flagged vehicle carrier operated by Farrell Lines, left the Gulf on Monday via the Strait of Hormuz, accompanied by U.S. Military assets. Oil prices, which have been slipping below the high of $115 per barrel on Monday, gave some relief to stocks and other risky assets. The renewed hostilities still jolted the markets and served to remind them that the Middle East war is far from over. Brent crude futures dropped 1.5% to $112.74 per barrel after having risen in the previous session due to increased concerns about supply disruption. The markets may be relieved today after President Trump's comments overnight that the conflict could last for two or three more weeks. Markets are likely to be sceptical, however, due to the recent escalation, and the multiple extensions of timelines for ending hostilities, since the conflict started," ING's head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson stated. S&P Global Market Intelligence data showed that 83% of S&P500 companies who have already reported had beaten the EPS estimates, and 78.2% surpassed revenue estimates. LSEG data indicates that earnings growth is expected to reach 18% for the S&P 500 in the first quarter. This compares with estimates of 12.8% a month ago. Nasdaq and S&P futures both rose by 0.7%, indicating a rebound from Monday's negative closing. Jeff Buchbinder is the chief equity strategist of LPL Financial. He said that AI-driven expenditures will continue to drive earnings growth for S&P 500, with the technology sector leading. YEN INTERVENTION MONITORING The yen has been slightly weaker today, with the dollar up by?0.3% to 157.736, following Monday's brief surge which saw the Japanese currency reach an intraday peak of 155.69. Satsuki Katayama, the Japanese Finance Minister, spoke out on Monday against speculative foreign exchange trading. This left'market participants alert to further intervention following reports that Tokyo intervened on Thursday to prop up their ailing currency. Abbas Keshvani is Asia Macro Strategist for RBC Capital Markets. He said that authorities could intervene again, if the dollar/yen continued to test 160. They have always defended this level. In 2022, Tokyo fired three volleys in just a few weeks. He said: "We believe that the intervention will only act as a 'lid on USD/JPY and not a catalyst to protracted yen strength." The Australian dollar, which is widely used as a currency, last traded at $0.7161 after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates on Tuesday for the third time in this year, a move that was widely anticipated. Spot gold, meanwhile, rose 1% above the low of $4,500 on Monday, which was the lowest level since March 31, to reach $4,565 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Rae Wee, Muralikumar Aantharaman, William Maclean, Nick Zieminski, Christopher Cushing)
Pentagon chief: ceasefire in Iran not yet over
U.S. Defense 'Secretary Pete Hegseth stated on Tuesday that the U.S. Operation to Protect Commercial Ships Against Iran in 'the Strait of Hormuz was temporary, Washington wasn't looking for a battle and the ceasefire agreement with Iran remains in place.
Hegseth, a reporter, told reporters that the ceasefire was not yet over.
"We promised to?defend aggressively and we have done so." Iran is aware of this, and the president has ultimate authority to decide whether or not a ceasefire violation occurs.
The fragile peace in the Middle East was put under pressure?on Tuesday when the U.S. Iran and the United States exchanged gunfire in the Gulf, as they fought for control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, launched Project Freedom on Monday to take back control of the crucial waterway from Iran. Iran had effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S., Israel and other countries started the conflict?on February 28, 2017.
Hegseth stated that Iran does control the strait.
"Project Freedom" is defensive in nature, a focused?scope, and a temporary duration. Its mission is to protect innocent commercial shipping against?Iranian aggression. The US forces will not need to enter Iranian waters or airspace. It is not necessary. Hegseth stated that they were not interested in a fight.
(source: Reuters)