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Russell: China's thermal coal production drops, but prices of imported coal in Asia rise amid the Iran war.
The Iran War has impacted crude oil and natural gas markets. However, the impact on coal prices has been muted. Prices for thermal grades are quietly rising to multi-year highs. The conflict between the United States of America and Iran has led to the loss of about 10% of crude oil and a fifth of LNG. However, the thermal coal supply has been largely unaffected by the conflict, despite the fact that the cost of shipping and producing has increased due to higher fuel prices. Coal prices are likely to be driven by a number of factors, including the Iran war and changes in Indonesian regulations. According to commodity analysts Kpler, Asia's seaborne thermal coal imports are expected to have their best month since December in May. The imports of thermal coal in Asia are expected to hit 76.26 millions metric tons by May, a 23% increase from April. This is also higher than the 72.83 millions from May last. All of the top buyers in the region have seen gains. China is the largest coal importer in the world. Its seaborne thermal arrivals are expected to reach 22.63 millions tons. This is up from 16.3 million tons in April, and the highest since January. China's appetite to import is driven by a weaker domestic production. April's 385.63 millions tons were down from the record 440.62 in March and 1% from last April. China's first four-month output fell by 0.1%, to 1.58 billion tonnes. The fact that China's thermal electricity production, with the majority of it being coal-fired in the first quarter of the year, increased by 3.6%, suggests that the supply-demand balance in China has been tightened recently, encouraging imports. The 82 deaths in the worst coal mining accident in 17-years, which occurred last Friday in a metallurgical mine in 'Shanxi Province, may lead to a further shortage of coal as authorities intensify safety inspections in both thermal coal and coking coal. China's increasing import demand has helped lift the prices of grades it typically seeks.?Commodity price reporting agency Argus assessed Indonesian coal, with an energy contents of 4,200 kilocalories/ kilogram (kcal/kg), at $64.43 a tonne in the week ending May 22. This is a three-year peak and up by 42% from the end of last season. Kpler predicts that India, as the second largest importer of thermal coal, will see arrivals of 13,78 million tons in May. This is the highest since June last years and 7.3% more than the 12,84 million recorded in April. Last week, heat waves drove electricity demand to new records. This boosted demand for coal-fired generators. INDONESIA CHANGES The world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia, announced regulatory changes last week that will have a significant impact on the way cargoes are traded. Indonesia plans to control the coal trade through exports via a state-owned company that will be in charge of contracts and prices. The government has said that it will honor existing long-term agreements, but it also reserves the right to review the prices of such deals. By implementing state controls over exports, the government will eliminate under-invoicing. It's possible that the trade flow will be affected if there is still uncertainty about how the new system will work in practice. The imports of thermal coal by Japan are expected to increase from 6.63 millions tons in April to 7.59 million in May. South Korea's arrivals will be 6.73 million tons, which is the highest since January, and a significant jump from April's 4,79 million. Both countries in North Asia are among the top four coal importers. They are also the best positioned to switch from LNG-imported natural gas to coal-fired electricity generation. Due to the Iran War, both Japan and South Korea are likely to increase their coal-fired power generation. The price of high grade Australian thermal coal has risen as a result. The weekly assessment of Newcastle?Port rose to $133.09 per ton during the week ending May 22. This is up from $131.80 and only slightly below the 18-month-old high of $140.53 set in early April. Australia is the second largest coal exporter and may be in a better position to capitalize on any disruptions to Indonesian coal shipments due to regulatory changes. Its lower-grade coal could replace Indonesian coal. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Sri Lanka is in talks with China and Russia to purchase fuel, says Minister
Sri Lanka has been in discussions to purchase Russian fuels from Russia and China. The energy minister said this on Monday. Sri Lanka imports all its fuel and has been severely affected by the energy market fallout caused by the Iran War. This led to a 40% increase in fuel prices, fuel rationing, and declaring Wednesdays public holidays. Anura Karunathilake, the Energy Minister, said that the government has held "positive" talks with both Russia and China in the last two months. He said that the prices of possible Chinese fuel supplies were still being negotiated, and payment methods with Moscow needed to be sorted out. "We are not fully?agreed on the payment method. We don't have a problem paying in any currency. But what is the most practical way to do it? He said, "That's true", refusing to provide a timeline of possible imports. U.S. Sanctions Waiver Sri Lanka hopes to use a temporary waiver of sanctions by the U.S. until June 17 to buy crude oil primarily from Russia for its single refinery. However, it is open to purchasing refined products from either country, Karunathilake stated. Sri Lanka will initially purchase one shipment each from the different countries and then look at the possibility of continuing to import, said the Minister. Sri Lanka imports most of its fuel from Singapore, India and the United Arab Emirates. Crude oil is primarily sourced from these two countries. Karunathilake stated that tender-based fuel shipments are already in place, mostly from Singapore. As a result of higher fuel costs, the power tariffs in this country were increased by 18% at the beginning of August. The nation is trying to 'adhere to a $2.9billion programme with 'the International Monetary Fund which helped it recover from a severe crisis four years earlier. The increased fuel costs have put pressure on the rupee. It has fallen by 8.7% since March and reached 336 rupees Monday. (Reporting and editing by Uditha Jayasinghe)
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Japan's Takaichi announces an extra budget of $19 billion, and reassures bond issuers
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced on Monday that Japan would build up an additional $19 billion in reserves to help subsidise the cost of fuel and to ease living costs. She also promised to not borrow any more money overall to calm bond market fears. The supplementary budget was first announced earlier this month. It is a reversal of Takaichi’s previous remarks denying the need for additional spending. However, it comes at a time when a spike in the energy price following the Iran War - as well as rising import costs due to the weakening yen -- threaten her high level of support with the electorate. The government has decided to spend?roughly the half of its contingency reserve of 1 trillion yen to fund subsides aimed at reducing utility bills. This increased the need to replenish the reserves due to the threat of a prolonged Middle East Crisis. GASOLINE SUBSTANCES ARE ALREADY Eating Into Reserves Japan also extends separate subsidies to maintain gasoline prices, a costly measure that quickly uses up its contingency reserve as oil prices continue to rise. Takaichi said that the additional spending would be financed by bonds with deficit financing, but she added that the measure "could be implemented without affecting the market for government bonds." She said that the total amount of bonds issuance would remain the same as the original plan. This is because stronger tax revenues, nontax income, and anticipated underspending will likely eliminate the need to issue around 3 trillion yen deficit bonds, which were scheduled for issuance until June. Takaichi, a reporter at the time, said that the government would reduce the debt to GDP ratio while closely monitoring the daily market development and economic indicators. This will ensure fiscal sustainability as well as maintain market confidence. BOND YIELDS RISK RISK RISK RISK RISK RISK RISK RISK RISK RISK RISKS TO FISCAL FOREVIEW The yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) reached its highest level since October 1996 last week after a report that the government will likely issue new debt to fund the extra budget. Analysts say that while holding the planned bond issuance at the same level signals that the Takaichi Administration is taking market concerns about Japan’s fiscal situation into consideration, the risks to the fiscal forecast extend beyond the supplementary Budget. The?government may consider cutting the consumption tax on foods, which could result in a reduction of tax revenue by as much as five trillion yen. Meanwhile, rising JGB yields are expected to increase debt servicing costs. The 122.3 trillion yen budget for general-account fiscal 2026 saw a 10.8% increase in debt-servicing expenses for interest payments and the redemption of debts, based upon an assumed 3.0% interest rate. This is the highest level for 29 years. If the long-term rate of interest continues to rise above this level, it will force the government into additional borrowing and increase its debt.
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HIGHLIGHTS-Tennis-French Open day two
Highlights from the second day of the French Open (times GMT). 1052 PAOLINI THRU TO SECOND?ROUND Jasmine Paolini, a former finalist from Italy and 13th seed, beat Dayana Yastremska?7-5 6-3?to set up an Argentinean Solana Sierra in the second round. She had previously knocked out Emma Raducanu. Play Under Way 0909 The weather was hot and sunny at Roland Garros. In Paris, temperatures were around 25 degrees Celsius. Iga Swiatek will be the third seeded player to open the proceedings on Court Philippe Chatrier against Emerson Jones, an Australian wildcard. READ MORE Monfils celebrates Roland Garros final as Gaston tries to spoil the send-off Djokovic and Zverev are off to a winning start at the French Open but Fritz is out Mpetshi Perricard, a record-holder Djokovic, passes a test in Paris Basavareddy shocks the French Open with a win over Fritz After a missile attack near his parents' home, Kostyuk remains focused in Paris Frenchman withdraws from Roland Garros because of hip pain As tensions in Paris rise, players accuse Grand Slams?of ignoring concerns List of French Open singles men's champions List of French Open women singles champions FRENCH ?OPEN ORDER OF PLAY ON MONDAY (prefix number denotes seeding): COURT PHILIPPE CHATRIER (play starts at?1000 GMT). Emerson Jones (Australia) v 3-Iga Swiatek (Poland) Veronika Erjavec (Slovenia) v 2-Elena Rybakina (Kazakhstan) 32-Ugo Humbert (France) v Adrian Mannarino (France) Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils COURT SUZANNE LEENGLEN (play starts at 0900 - GMT) 22-Arthur Rinderknech (France) v Jurij Rodionov (Austria) 7-Elina Svitolina (Ukraine) v Anna Bondar (Hungary) Tessah Rajaonah (France) v 6-Amanda Anisimova (U.S.) Daniel Merida (Spain) v ?5-Ben Shelton (U.S.) COURT SIMONNE MATHIE (play starts at?09:00 GMT) 13-Jasmine Paolini (Italy) v ?Dayana Yastremska (Ukraine) Stan Wawrinka (Switzerland) v Jesper De Jong (Netherlands) 15-Casper Ruud (Norway) v Roman Safiullin (Russia) Anastasia Zakharova, (Russia), vs 10-Karolina Mostova (Czech Republic). (Reporting and editing by Christian Radnedge in Bengaluru)
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What must be agreed in order to end the Iran War?
LONDON/DUBAI - On Monday, the spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry said that many conclusions had been reached regarding a "potential 14-point Memorandum of Understanding", but that this did not mean an agreement to end the "Middle East War" was imminent. Esmaeil Baghaei, the spokesperson for the Iranian government, explained that the framework focuses on a ceasefire and a U.S. navy blockade, in exchange for Tehran taking measures to ensure safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz. What stage are the discussions? Both sides are at odds over difficult issues, including Iran's nuke ambitions, Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Tehran's demand for lifting sanctions and releasing frozen assets. Both sides claim they have made progress in negotiating a memorandum that would end the war, and give negotiators a 60-day window to reach an agreement. Hossein Nooshabadi, a senior Iranian diplomat, told ISNA on Monday that a possible framework agreement?included a halt to the war in all areas, including Lebanon, and the release of Iranian assets. It also included the lifting of U.S. Naval Blockade, opening the Strait of Hormuz and the withdrawal of U.S. Forces from Iran's vicinity. Nooshabadi stated that the draft agreement for Iran contained no commitments regarding its nuclear program. An anonymous senior official from Donald Trump's administration said that Iran has agreed in principle to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting their naval blockade and to dispose of Tehran’s highly enriched Uranium. Baghaei said that the initial potential deal did not include any specifics about the management and control of Hormuz. Nooshabadi stated that the management of the strait is an Iranian-Omani matter under discussion with Oman. HOW COULD A DEAL MOVE FORWARD? The memorandum will be sent for final approval to the supreme leader of the country if the Supreme National Security Council of Iran approves it. According to the senior U.S. government official, the U.S. believed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei endorsed the general template of the agreement. Baghaei, Nooshabadi, and others said that if the first phase of agreement went well, then the nuclear issue would be reviewed and discussed during the 60 day period. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio talked about entering a "very serious, meaningful, and time-limited nuclear negotiation" during the 60 days. Negotiations between teams of experts took many years to reach the last nuclear deal, which was signed in 2015 but subsequently revoked by Donald Trump. What are the main issues? HORMUZ & GULF BLOCKADE – Tehran sees its control over Hormuz as its main leverage, while Washington views the blockade on Iranian ports to be its primary lever. The United States believes that Iran is attempting to build a nuclear weapon. Iran has always denied that, claiming its atomic program is only for peaceful purposes. Focus is on the enrichment of uranium which can be used to make fuel for nuclear power, but also material?for a weapon. A deal could include a long-term moratorium on the enrichment of uranium and exports or dilutions of the stockpile. BALLISTIC MISSILES – A major U.S. request before the war was for Iran to limit the range of their ballistic missiles, so they couldn't reach Israel. Iran has never discussed its ballistic missiles. It has said that its conventional weapons are not on the table, and it has a large arsenal. SANCTIONS & FROZEN ASSETS: Iran's economy was hurt by sanctions over the years and this contributed to the unrest across the country in January. Tehran desperately needs the sanctions lifted, and for the tens billions in frozen Iranian oil revenue to be released from foreign banks. The country also wants compensation for the damage caused by war. (Reporting and writing by Parisa Hafezi, Angus McDowall, Michael Georgy, Editing by Aiden Lewis)
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Analysts say that China could be a net exporter of refined zinc in 2026.
Analysts said that China would export more refined zinc in 2026 than it imports, for the first time since four years. This is due to a growing supply of the metal and a weak domestic demand. China, which produced about half of the world's Zinc last year, is also a major zinc importer. The metal is mainly used for galvanising steel. Alice Fox, commodities analyst at Macquarie Group says that net refined zinc imports will be 209,767 tonnes this year compared to 428,890 tones in 2024. According to Fox, at home, new capacity is expected to be added this year, while the property sector is still struggling to meet demand. In the meantime, in 'the rest of the world', production has been suspended or reduced at smelters?in Peru and Kazakhstan due to accidents, and a tightening of supply of zinc concentrat. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has also led to a rise in energy costs, which have increased production costs. Olga Hepting is the principal zinc analyst for CRU Group. She said that China was very close to achieving self-sufficiency by the end of 2025. "It is likely to remain in surplus in 2026 while the rest of the world will be in deficit, leading to possible exports in the third or fourth quarter." Prices outside China are also increasing faster than the benchmark. As of Friday, the most traded zinc?contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen 3% in the past year. The global benchmark on the London Metal Exchange has risen 11%. According to calculations based on Chinese import data, despite the fact that?China remained a net consumer in the four-month period?towards April, net imports dropped 62% compared to a year ago. Analysts predict that 'the switch to exports will occur in the second half of this year. Hepting did note that if the Iran War drags on, the global demand hit from higher energy costs could affect China's export market.
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After the disruption of Hormuz, India looks to Latin American and African oil
Data from trade sources shows that Indian refiners have turned to imports of?lubricants from Latin America and Africa, after Middle East supplies were disrupted by the Israeli-U.S. War on Iran. The world's third largest oil importer and user bought the majority of its crude oil from the Middle East before the war began at the end February. Kpler's preliminary data shows that Indian refiners increased their imports of Venezuelan oil in April and may to cover the shortfall. They also continued to purchase Russian oil. India stopped buying oil from Iraq last month as the exports had been halted. It received Iranian oil, however, after a seven-year pause, following a temporary waiver by Washington in order to stabilize global oil prices. Nayara Energy closed its 400,000 barrels per day refinery for maintenance in New Delhi, causing a 29.4% drop in imports. Kpler's preliminary data showed that India will receive about 1.9m bpd from Russia in May and around 41,000 bpd from Iraq. The data revealed that India imported 4,57 million barrels per day of oil in April. This was the same as March but 15.5% less than a year ago. The data revealed that imports of oil from Saudi Arabia remained at 619,500 barrels per day (bpd) while those from the United Arab Emirates increased to 669.700 bpd. Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain are dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for their shipments. Data showed that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which includes the UAE as a member, increased its share of India's imports to 45.2% in April, from around 30% in March. The UAE left OPEC in May, releasing it from oil production quotas. The UAE's higher imports helped to arrest the decline in Middle East's share for?Indian imports. Meanwhile, the share of Russian oil fell from almost 50% to around 35%. Russia was India's largest oil supplier. The UAE and Saudi Arabia were the next two. Brazil was India's fourth-largest oil supplier. Venezuela was ranked fifth. Kpler data shows that Venezuela is on track to become the 4th largest supplier in May.
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Indian Finance Minister calls for focus on the '3Fs - fuel, fertilizer, and forex
Nirmala Sitharaman, Indian Finance Minister, urged India to concentrate on fuels and fertilisers and to save foreign exchange amid the Gulf Crisis. Modi called for Indians this month to save fuel, avoid buying gold, and take other austerity measures to manage the energy crisis and economic headwinds. Sitharaman stated that it was important for the Prime Minister to call on all countries to conserve their foreign currency as much as possible. She added that this should be considered when focusing on the 3Fs (fuel, fertilizer and foreign exchange). India is suffering from the effects of high crude oil prices and disruptions in supply after the U.S./Israeli war against Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Sitharaman said, "High prices of crude, fertilisers, and gold create some external challenges" while speaking at an event held in Mumbai. India, which is the world's third-largest oil importer and user, increased petrol and diesel prices again on Monday. This was the fourth price increase since May. Sitharaman stated that India's revenue is expected to suffer a?hit of 1 trillion rupees (US$1 billion) in FY27 as a result of reducing excise duty on fuel. Reporting by Khushi malhotra. Writing by Tanvi mehta. Editing by YPrajesh.
Everest operators need to vet climbers more carefully, according to a record-holder
Mount Everest Expedition operators should focus on the experience of climbers and their 'knowledge' to reduce risks and minimise deaths, according to a British climber who is a guide and has made more ascents up the mountain than any other non-Sherpa.
Five people died on Everest in this year. Some had problems at high elevations and needed to be rescued while descending.
Kenton Cool, 52 who last week climbed Everest for the?20th time, said that climbing it wasn't as risky as people thought if you used the right techniques, guides and planning. Cool said that operators should be more careful about who they let join the guides who go to the top.
The risks of overcrowding Last week, 274 Nepali climbers scaled Everest in a single day. This was the most ever on one day. This feat brought the dangers of allowing a large number of climbers to ascend the mountain, and the criticism Nepal had previously received.
The "death zones" below the summit are often crowded and dangerous, with oxygen levels that are far below the minimum required for human survival.
Nepal has recognized the risks posed by congestion and untrained climbers. It has tightened controls and increased fees.
Cool said, "People shouldn't die on Everest when they have enough experience."
COOL: Climbing Everest in 2026 will be much easier, thanks to technology. Cool, the first person to scale Everest, said that climbing had changed.
He said that the Sherpa guides better understood their clients, rope-fixing was more organised and executed. Equipment, communication, and weather forecasting were also improved. Cool stated that on the summiting day, overtaking people at the Hillary Step bottleneck could be difficult due to the crowd but was ultimately manageable. The opening of the route was delayed by two weeks due to a towering block of snow. This stranded hundreds of climbers in base camp. Despite the early delays, Cool said that the sherpas of "Icefall Doctors", the Expedition Operators Association of Nepal and other elite groups had managed to fix ropes on the summit.
It is more professional this year than last. (Reporting and editing by YPrajesh; Gopal Sharma, reporting)
(source: Reuters)