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India: Oil price rise unlikely to cause inflation to spike sharply

India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated on Monday that the country does not expect the inflation rate to increase significantly as a result of a?"jump" in crude oil prices caused by the?war in the Middle East. Domestic price levels are still a "bit below the lower end of the central banks tolerance band."

Early trade saw oil prices rise by 26%, the highest level since July 2022. This was after Iran announced that Mojtaba Khmenei would succeed his father Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei who had been killed in an air strike by Israel and the United States a little over a week earlier. The major Middle Eastern oil producers have cut their supply because they can't safely ship shipments across the Strait of Hormuz.

Mojtaba was appointed after Donald Trump, the U.S. president, had rejected him earlier as a possible candidate for Iran's supreme leader. Israel also said it would target anyone who leads Iran.

Sitharaman, in a written response to parliament, said that global oil prices, including India's crude, had been falling for over a year, until the conflict in the region escalated on February 28.

The Indian basket increased from $69.01 per barrel at the end of February to $80.16 per barrel on March 2.

According to the government, there will be a limited impact on consumer prices for now.

Sitharaman stated that the impact of inflation on India is not expected to be significant at this time, given the fact that the country's inflation rate is close to the lower limit.

Retail inflation in January was 2.75 percent, which is close to the bottom of Reserve Bank of India’s target range of 2%-6%.

She said that the RBI's Monetary Policy Report for October 2025 estimated a 10% rise in crude oil prices would raise inflation by 30 basis points if it were to be fully passed through to domestic fuel costs.

Sitharaman said, "However the medium-term effect of a?global crude oil price increase?on the inflation depends on a number of factors, including exchange rate fluctuations, global demand-supply situation, monetary policies transmission, state of general inflation and the extent the indirect pass-through." Reporting by Sarita Chantanti Singh, Editing by Raju Gopikrishnan

(source: Reuters)