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Asia markets mixed; sentiment tepid with Fed on the horizon

The dollar fell to a five-week-low on Thursday while Asian stocks had a dull start to their trading session. Weaker-than-expected data from the economy confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates during its meeting next Monday.

The Nikkei rose by 0.8% while MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.1%. This was due to declines in Korea, New Zealand, and Australia. S&P 500 futures are little changed as the momentum of U.S. stocks overnight has waned in Asia. The Russell 2000 index rose 1.9% on Wednesday, while the benchmark S&P 500 also gained ground. Gains were made after the U.S. private employment data showed their largest drop in over two-and-a half years.

A separate survey by the Institute for Supply Management revealed that its measure of employment in the services sector contracted in November. The subindex of prices received fell to a 7-month low.

Henry Russell, an economist at ANZ, said on a podcast that this move is in line with his view that recent supercore inflation will subside and pave the way for a resumption in disinflation by 2026.

"We still believe that the Fed should continue to reduce interest rates in response to the downside risks of the labour market," he added, adding that the bank anticipates a cut of 25 basis points at the meeting next week and more easing next.

Fed funds futures indicate an 89% implied probability that the U.S. Central Bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting, which is scheduled for December 12. This compares to an 83.4% implied probability a week earlier.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, fell last by 0.4% to 98.878, its lowest level in nine consecutive sessions. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was last stable at 4.0749% after the Financial Times reported that bond investors had expressed concern to the U.S. Treasury about Kevin Hassett's potential to aggressively reduce interest rates to align himself with President Donald Trump.

In Hong Kong, the Chinese yuan remained stable in offshore trading after reaching its highest level against the U.S. Dollar in over a year. The greenback fell to its lowest level against the renminbi in October 2024. The last time it traded was at 7.056 Yuan. The Australian dollar gained 0.1% following official data showing that Australian household expenditure surged the most in nearly two years in October. Meanwhile, the goods trade surplus of the country grew more than expected due to a rise in gold exports for the second consecutive month. The Japanese chip makers in the AI supply chains advanced after reports that Trump met with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to discuss export control, citing an informed source. Tokyo Electron rose 0.7%. The recent surge in precious metals continues. Silver was up 0.1% to $58.5415 an ounce. Gold was up 0.2% at $4,213.38. The metal had hit a new record high on Wednesday of $58.98. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter.

(source: Reuters)