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As the threat of a US shutdown grows, caution sets in

On Tuesday, caution prevailed on the world's markets. The dollar and equity prices fell and gold hit another record high amid concerns that a U.S. shutdown could delay important jobs data.

The dollar is broadly weaker. European stocks are lower in early trading and U.S. stock futures have fallen a day after U.S. vice president JD Vance stated that the government appears "headed for a shutdown", after President Donald Trump's budget negotiations with Democratic opponents had made little progress.

A shutdown of the government would delay Friday's important employment figures, and put the spotlight on the Labor Department JOLTS report for August job openings that is due on Tuesday. This could also affect the Federal Reserve's outlook, as they cut rates earlier in the month.

SHUTDOWN CAN LEAVE FED WITHOUT KEY DATA

James Rossiter is the head of global macro-strategy at TD Securities, London.

"The Fed is worried that there could be a long shutdown if the government shuts down. If we don't receive Friday's CPI or the jobs report, what will happen?" He was referring to U.S. data on inflation.

The pan-European STOXX 600 closed at a loss of 0.2% while Japan's Nikkei fell by 0.25%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by almost 0.5%. It is expected to gain over 5% in the month of April.

China's blue chip CSI300 Index rose also almost 0.5%. This is the longest streak of gains since October 2017 and it marks its fifth consecutive month.

The world stock market could see a sharp decline if a prolonged government shutdown threatens to dampen the U.S. economy. U.S. shares are expected to finish September with a gain of more than 3%, while European stocks have gained nearly 1% in this month.

The Australian dollar gained after the central banks held rates at their current levels, as was widely expected. Oil prices dropped over 1% due to expectations of increased production from OPEC+. Meanwhile, China's manufacturing activity declined for a sixth consecutive month in September.

Another record high for gold

U.S. shut down worries contributed to gold's spectacular rally. Gold has reached a record high price of $3,820 an ounce. It is up over 12% this month and on course to be its largest monthly percentage gain since Nov 2009.

A U.S. shutdown without a deal would start on Wednesday, the day that new U.S. duties are due to be imposed on heavy trucks and patented drugs, among other things.

On Monday night, the White House announced that new tariffs would be applied to furniture and cabinets on October 14.

The dollar is now on the defensive.

The U.S. dollar was down 0.4% to 147.95yen. The euro was up by 0.1% at $1.1742, and the Swiss franc was also slightly stronger against the dollar.

The dollar index is expected to finish September with little change.

ING currency analysts wrote in a report that the yen would likely outperform other currencies as a hedge against a U.S. shutdown.

The U.S. JOLTS Report is one of several indicators that will be released ahead of Friday's September employment report, which is considered crucial to the Fed in determining the timing of rate reductions.

The Fed's meeting on October 29 could be thrown into confusion by a prolonged government shutdown.

Analysts expect JOLTS will show that job openings remained stable at around 7.18 million in august.

China's purchasing manager's index increased to 49.8 from 49.4 at the end of August. This is below 50, which separates growth from contraction.

The report suggested that producers were waiting for more stimulus to boost the domestic demand as well as clarification on a U.S. Trade Deal.

The Reserve Bank of Australia also left its cash rate at 3.60% after recent data indicated that inflation could be higher than expected in the third quarter, and the economic outlook was uncertain.

The data that inflation was rising in four important German states did not have a significant impact on the market.

The oil price remained weak due to the anticipated increase in production by OPEC+, and the resumption from Iraq's Kurdistan Region of oil exports. Brent crude oil fell 1.25%, to $67.11 a barrel. U.S. crude dropped 1.25 %, to $62.66.

(source: Reuters)