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Rate outlook and stock market performance are in focus. Stocks rise after Trump's visa crackdown
The dollar and Asian stocks both steadied Monday as markets assessed the Federal Reserve's policy after last week's rate cut. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration for worker visas held back sentiment. India's benchmark stock index fell after the Trump Administration announced on Friday that it would require companies to pay $100,000 to obtain new H-1B visas. This is a blow for the tech sector, which relies heavily on skilled workers in India and China. U.S. Stock Futures eased, with S&P Futures down by 0.1%. European Futures showed a subdued opening. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose by 0.1%. Tokyo's Nikkei index rose by 1.3%, while Taiwan stocks reached a new record high. India's $283-billion information technology sector will feel the pinch in the short term as the deteriorating relationship between India and the United States continues. Trump doubled tariffs last month on Indian imports to 50%, in part due to New Delhi's purchase of Russian oil. It's a threat to operating costs and margins. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial analyst with Capital.com. He said that it was possible to increase wages and labour costs. If they are unable to find enough workers within the U.S., tech companies could also face punitive actions. Investors in China digested the positive signals of U.S. China talks, after Trump claimed that he and Chinese president Xi Jinping had made progress on a TikTok deal. FED POLICY A OUTLOOK Investors are still keen to assess the U.S. policy direction after the Fed announced a future phase of gradual easing. The traders have priced in 44 basis point easing for the last two policy meetings. The week will be filled with a number of speeches from policymakers, and data on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is due Friday. This information will set the tone for rates in the near term. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He believes that the PCE core price index will rise 0.2% monthly, keeping the annual rate at 2.9%. This is the same as it was in July and higher than the 2.6% lowest level reached in April. Sycamore stated that the U.S. Dollar short trade is crowded, even though a shallower cycle of rate cuts should theoretically weigh on the U.S. currency. The dollar index, he added, has been losing its downward momentum after a tumultuous start. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency compared to six other currencies, rose 0.09% at 97.814. The index has fallen nearly 10% in this year, but most of the decline occurred during the first half of 2025. The Japanese yen is slightly weaker today at 148.20 U.S. dollars after strengthening on Friday, following the Bank of Japan’s hawkish vote where two members of its board voted against maintaining interest rates. While the central banks kept its short-term rates, board members Hajime Tamura and Naoki Tamura proposed, but failed, a rise in what markets saw as an indication of a future increase in borrowing costs. Vasu Menon is the managing director for investment strategy at OCBC. He said that Friday's announcement will be interpreted by the markets as an indication that Japan's central bank has begun to become more hawkish. He said that it could lead to "higher JGB yields, a stronger yen and expectations of future rate hikes." This may not be good news for Japanese stocks and bonds on the short-term. Brent crude futures were 0.7% higher than the previous day's closing price of $67.16 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures rose by 0.77% to 63.16. The gold price rose 0.24%, to $3,692.79 an ounce. This is just a little short of the record set last week. (Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Editing by Jacqueline Wong).
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High stocks limit gains as copper prices rise due to improved demand from China
Copper prices rose again on Monday as restocking was undertaken ahead of the week-long holidays in China, the world's largest consumer. However, rising stocks and an advancing dollar restricted gains. As of 0410 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.36% to 80,130 Yuan ($11,265.92), per metric tonne. The benchmark copper price for the three-month period on the London Metal Exchange is $9,997 per ton. It had previously risen above the psychologically important level of $10,000 per ton. Analysts at Minmetals Futures report that downstream consumers in China continued to restock the red metal from October 1 through October 8 in preparation for the National Day holiday. This helped to support prices. Copper prices were also supported by the lingering suspension of production at Freeport Indonesia’s Grasberg Mine, one the world’s largest copper mines. This was due to an incident that occurred in early September. The price potential for prices is limited by the rising stock market and the strong dollar. Copper stocks in Shanghai warehouses The price of the newest iPhones has risen by 12.5%. The dollar is stronger, and commodities that are traded in dollars become more expensive to investors who use other currencies. Tin inventory on the SHFE increased by 1.43%, trading at 272,300 Yuan per ton. Tin inventories on the SHFE As of September 19, the market fell by 11.5%, reaching a new 12-week low. Analysts at Jinrui Futures noted that a tight supply of raw materials was also helping to boost tin's price, as the recovery of production in Wa State, Myanmar, missed expectations despite a still-weak demand for solder. SHFE aluminium fell 0.24%. Zinc dropped 0.14%. Lead shed 0.15%. Nickel remained relatively unchanged. The LME also saw a rise in zinc, 0.45%, and a 0.499% increase in tin. $1 = 7.1226 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Canada Readies for Offshore Wind
Sean Fraser, Canada’s Minister responsible for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, has announced that strategic direction has been given to the Canada–Nova Scotia Offshore Energy Regulator as a next step toward realizing Canada’s first-ever offshore wind project.Fraser made the announcement on behalf of Tim Hodgson, Canada’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, and Nova Scotia Minister of Energy, Trevor Boudreau.In July, the Government of Canada and the Province of Nova Scotia jointly designated the areas of French Bank, Middle Bank and Sable Island Bank off mainland Nova Scotia and Sydney Bight off Cape Breton for eventual wind projects.The Regulator will now implement a prequalification process and a Call for Information to attract qualified investments and provide an opportunity for the public, Indigenous groups and stakeholders to inform the path forward.The move follows the Government of Canada announcement that the Major Projects Office (MPO) will advance work on strategies to accelerate transformative projects of national importance, including Wind West Atlantic Energy.“Today’s announcement is another leap toward Canada becoming the global supplier of choice for energy and supporting our long-term energy security. Now is the time to harness our powerful wind potential, turning it into prosperity and new opportunities for our communities,” said Hodgson.“In Atlantic Canada, we have the wind, the people and the ambition to lead the clean energy future. Now we’re acting on that potential — turning some of the world’s strongest winds into good jobs, new investment and clean, reliable energy our families can count on, not just today, but for our kids and grandkids too,” said Fraser.Land-based wind turbines accounted for 5.7% of Canada’s total electricity generation in 2022 — enough to power about three million typical homes.
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Steel production increases as demand for building materials rises
Iron ore futures prices increased on Monday as demand for building material grew ahead of National Day, and blast furnace steel production increased. As of 0233 GMT, the most-traded contract for January iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 1.12% higher. It was 814.5 Yuan ($114.50), per metric ton. The benchmark iron ore for September on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.09% to $105.8 per tonne. According to Chinese consultancy Mysteel, the overall production of Chinese blast furnace steel continued to rise in the week ending September 18. It increased by 0.2 percentage point to 90.4%. This was largely because operations were resumed in North China. The combined hot metal production, a measure of iron ore consumption, increased by 0.2% compared to the previous week, reaching 2.41 million tonnes per day. Broker Hexun Futures said that the demand for building materials has been increasing, as a result of ongoing inventory reductions, and an increase in downstream restocking before Chinese National Day. Steelhome data shows that the total iron ore stocks in China's ports fell by 0.42% on a week-on-week basis to 132 million tonnes as of September 19. In September, China's benchmark lending rates remained unchanged for the 4th consecutive month, despite signs that domestic growth was slowing. According to the World Steel Association, global crude steel production in July was 150.1 million tonnes, a 1.3% decrease year-on-year. Chinese output, at 79.7 millions tons, was 4% less. Coking coal and coke were both up or down by 0.14% on the DCE. In August, China's imports of coal reached a record high for eight months. This was largely due to higher domestic prices. Volumes remained 7% below a year ago due to weak demand and increased domestic supply. All steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained ground. Rebar increased by 1.08%. Hot-rolled coils gained 0.74%. Wire rods increased 0.24%. Stainless steel rose 0.58%. $1 = 7.1138 Chinese yuan (Reporting and editing by Eileen Soreng; Lucas Liew)
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Gold prices hold near record highs as investors focus on Fed policy signals
On Monday, gold hovered around a record-high as investors prepared for a series of speeches by U.S. Federal Reserve officials this week and the release of inflation data after last week's interest rate cut and signals that further easing could be forthcoming. By 0217 GMT, spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,688.76 an ounce. Bullion reached a record-high of $3,707.40 per ounce on Wednesday. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 0.5%, to $3723.70. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst, said that gold is once again on the verge of $3700 and new high watermarks may be reached this week if U.S. data continue to support a dovish Fed narrative. The market is now focused on the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure core price index (PCE), the preferred inflation gauge by the central bank, this Friday. Waterer stated that "the combination of a Fed dovish and constant central bank purchases keeps momentum on the gold side." As the markets seek further insight into the central banks monetary policy outlook, at least 12 Fed officials will be speaking this week. This includes Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak on Tuesday. The Fed reduced interest rates on Wednesday by 25 basis points, while warning about persistent inflation. This casts doubt over future easing. Stephen Miran, the new Fed governor, defended his independence on Friday after Wednesday's policy discussion in which he voted against steep rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch, investors expect two additional rate cuts in this year, each of 25 basis points, one in December and another in October. The probabilities are 93% and 81% respectively. Bullion has increased by more than 40% in the past year. This is due to a combination of geopolitical uncertainty, economic growth, central bank purchases, and monetary policy ease. Silver spot rose by 0.3%, to $43.20 an ounce. This is near the 14-year high. Platinum fell 0.4% to 1,398.40, while palladium rose by 0.1% to 1 150.75.
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Asian stocks are hesitant following Trump's visa crackdown
The dollar was stable on Monday, as traders considered the U.S. policy direction after the Federal Reserve cut rates last week. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration and worker visas held back sentiment. After the Trump administration announced on Friday that it would charge companies $100,000 per year to obtain new H-1B visas, the focus will shift to Indian and tech stocks. This is a blow for the tech sector which relies heavily on skilled workers in India and China. S&P futures fell by 0.1% in the early morning trading. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 0.09%. Tokyo's Nikkei rose 1% after dropping on Friday. India's $283-billion information technology sector will feel the pinch in the short term as the deteriorating relationship between India and the United States continues. Trump doubled tariffs last month on Indian imports to 50%, in part due to New Delhi's purchase of Russian oil. It's a threat to operating costs and margins. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial analyst with Capital.com. He said that it was possible to increase wages and labour costs. If they are unable to find enough workers within the U.S., tech companies could also face punitive actions. Investors are still keen to assess the U.S. macroeconomic policy after the Fed reduced interest rates last weekend but suggested a future phase of gradual easing. The week will be filled with a number of speeches from policymakers, and data on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is due Friday. This information will set the tone for rates in the near term. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He believes that the PCE core price index will rise 0.2% monthly, keeping the annual rate at 2.9%. This is the same as it was in July and higher than the 2.6% lowest level reached in April. The traders are pricing in a 44 basis point easing at the end of this year. The dollar is currently on an upward trend. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. money against six other currencies) was at 97.716. Chris Weston is head of research for Pepperstone. He said that "the USD's trajectory is less clear and the greenback's trading in the near term is a subject of greater debate." Treasury yields may drive USD flows, as a flood of Treasurys will be coming to the market and Fed speakers are scheduled. The Japanese yen is slightly weaker today at 148.20 U.S. dollars after strengthening on Friday, following the Bank of Japan’s hawkish vote where two members of its board voted against maintaining interest rates. The central bank maintained short-term rates at 0.5%. Board members Hajime Tamura and Naoki Tamura proposed, but failed, an increase to 0.75%. Markets interpreted this as a sign of a rise in borrowing costs in the near future. Vasu Menon is the managing director for investment strategy at OCBC. He said that Friday's announcement will be interpreted by markets as an indication that Japan's central bank has begun to become more hawkish. He said that it could lead to "expectations about future rate hikes, and the possibility of higher JGB yields as well as a stronger yen. This may not be good news for Japanese stocks and bonds on the short-term." Brent crude futures rose 0.3% to $66.89 per barrel in the commodities market. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures rose by 0.35% to 62.9. Gold prices rose 0.24%, to $3,692.79 an ounce. This is just a little bit short of the record high reached last week. (Editing by Shri Navaratnam).
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Malaysia will lower the RON95 fuel prices from September end in a subsidy adjustment
Anwar Ibrahim, the Prime Minister, announced on Monday that Malaysia would lower the price for its citizens of the popular RON95 fuel. The government is pushing ahead with a long-awaited plan Adjust fuel subsidies to provide relief on the cost of living. Anwar announced at a regular press briefing held at the Prime Minister's Department that, as of September 30, the price of subsidised RON95 will drop to 1,99 ringgit ($0.47) a litre. Anwar explained that the new subsidised price of fuel will be only available to Malaysians who have a valid driving license. Non-citizens are expected to pay 2,60 ringgit per litre at the petrol pump. Anwar revealed that the government would also limit subsidised fuel purchases to 300 litres of fuel per person per month, with ride-hailing drivers being exempted. He said that any savings from the changes in subsidy will go towards improving the public infrastructure and providing aid to the poor. The changes were announced by the government in July. However, they did not go to far as initially planned. Anwar's government has taken several measures to boost revenue, productivity and efficiency, including an increase in the minimum wage, higher electricity tariffs for heavy users, and an Expanded sales and Services Tax
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Oil prices rise as tensions flare up in Europe and the Middle East
The oil price rose on Monday, mainly due to geopolitical tensions in Europe and Middle East. However, the prospect of increased oil supply and concerns about trade tariffs impacting global fuel demand also weighed. Brent crude futures were up 28 cents or 0.42% to $66.96 a barrel by 0118 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was at $62.88 a barrel, an increase of 20 cents or 0.32%. Michael McCarthy, CEO Moomoo Australia & New Zealand's investment platform, said: "Reports from the weekend that Russia threatened over the Polish border reminded traders of the continuing risks to European energy safety coming from the north-east." Armed forces of NATO member Poland said that Polish and allied planes were deployed on Saturday morning to ensure the security of Polish airspace following Russian airstrikes against western Ukraine near its border. Three Russian military aircraft violated NATO Estonian airspace on Friday for 12 minutes, and on Sunday Germany's Air Force reported that a Russian plane had entered neutral airspace above the Baltic Sea. Diplomats have said that the United Nations Security Council will meet Monday to discuss Estonia's claim that Russian fighter planes violated Estonian airspace. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks against Russia's energy infrastructure in recent weeks. These include terminals and refineries. Meanwhile, U.S. president Donald Trump has asked the European Union not to buy Russian oil or gas. Four Western nations recognized the Palestinian state in Middle East news. This sparked a furious reaction from Israel, and increased tensions in this key oil producing region. Brent and WTI fell more than 1% last Friday, marking a slight drop from the previous week. Concerns about large supply and falling demand overshadowed expectations that the first interest rate cut of the year by the U.S. Federal Reserve will lead to more consumption. McCarthy stated that "there are underlying assumptions about the outlook for the market which include increased supply from USA, OPEC+, and now Russia as a response to a substantial decline in oil revenue." Iraq's oil exports have increased following the gradual unwinding voluntary production cuts in an OPEC+ Agreement, said the country's official oil marketing SOMO on Sunday. According to the Oil Ministry, Iraq exported an average of 3.38 million barrels of oil per day in August. SOMO estimates that September's average oil exports will range between 3.4 million and 3.45 million barrels per day. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Florence Tan)
Morning bid Europe-Fedspeak cuts through the noise
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets
Investors are focusing their attention on the future direction of interest rates, as several Fed policymakers will be speaking this week.
The Fed has indicated that it will ease up on rates in the future. The markets are now contemplating the future, with traders estimating 44 basis points easing at the end of this year.
Two more Fed meetings are left in this year. With the central bank being heavily criticized by Trump, the economic data and policymaker comments will be key in determining the investor sentiment near-term.
Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin, and Stephen Miran will speak on Monday. Raphael Bostic will also be speaking on Tuesday. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also speak.
We are now back to taking notes about Fedspeak, and the direction of rates. Fun times!
After last week's volatility the dollar started this week stable, and stocks were near record highs. Futures indicated a quiet session with the European calendar largely void.
The Trump Administration announced on Friday that it would require companies to pay $100,000 to obtain new H-1B visas. This set off alarms in Silicon Valley, and among Indian tech firms. Visa holders and firms scrambled for answers.
The initial market reaction was muted, although India's Nifty50 fell 0.3%, and the Indian Rupee, which is one of Asia's worst performers this year, was slightly stronger at the beginning of the session.
Analysts said that it may take some investors time to determine the true margin cost for companies who depend on the program.
Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact
Eurozone consumer confidence spikes in September
(source: Reuters)