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Sources say that OPEC+ officials will discuss production capacity at Vienna
Two delegates said on Tuesday that OPEC+ delegates plan to meet in Vienna, Austria on Thursday and Friday. They will discuss the method for determining the maximum production capacity for the 22 member producer group. This issue is controversial because some members, such as the United Arab Emirates, have increased their capacity and pushed for higher quotas while others, such as Africans, have seen a decline. Angola left the group in 2024 due to a disagreement over its production target. OPEC+ Ministers asked OPEC headquarters in May to develop a method to determine the maximum sustainable production capability for each member. This will be used to establish their production baselines for 2027. One source said that this week's meeting will be to discuss the method for this assessment. They added that OPEC+ Ministers will make a final decision at their later-in-the year meeting. OPEC didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Baselines are the production levels that each member uses to cut or increase. OPEC+ has been discussing a new baseline for several years. In April, eight members of the OPEC+ Alliance, which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, led by Russia began increasing production, partly to regain market shares. Saudi Arabia, UAE and other members who have invested heavily in energy sectors have benefited from the increases. (Reporting and editing by Alex Lawler, Susan Fenton and Ahmad Ghaddar)
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Spain's summer 2025 was the hottest ever recorded, according to the state weather agency
This summer, Spain experienced its hottest temperatures since 1961. Climate change caused more than a week of heatwaves that sparked the worst wildfire season in 30 years. AEMET, the state weather agency, said that the summer of 2025 is 2.1 degrees Celsius hotter than the average for 1991-2020 and surpasses the previous record summer in 2022 by 0.1 degree. Ruben del campo, AEMET spokesperson, said that in an interview, nine of the ten hottest summers on record in Spain occurred during the 21st Century, and more heat is to come. "These summers 2022 and 2025 serve as a preview - or spoiler for what may happen at the turn of the century," del Campo stated. "One out of every three days, we've been experiencing a heatwave this summer." Del Campo stated that Spain will need to adapt to warmer summers and continue to contribute to global efforts to curb climate changes by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Spain experienced three heatwaves lasting 36 days in the summer. According to AEMET, a 16-day heatwave that lasted in August was the most intense ever recorded. Temperatures in the southern part of the country reached 45C. Global warming is accelerating, and countries around the world have experienced record heat in recent years. The summer of 2024 marked the warmest summer in the northern hemisphere, while Britain experienced its hottest summer since 1884. According to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), data analysed by, intense heat helped fuel wildfires across the European Union that burned a record 1,03 million hectares. AEMET reported that temperatures in the inland region of Spain's northwest region, Galicia, where some of the most severe fires occurred, were 3C higher than normal. (Reporting and editing by Ros Russell; Reporting by Charlie Devereux)
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Gold reaches a new high as Fed rate cuts loom
Gold reached a new record on Tuesday. The market was buoyed by the weakening dollar and the growing anticipation of a rate cut by 25 basis points at Federal Reserve policy meeting. As of 8:09 am, spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,696.34 an ounce. ET (1209 GMT), following a session high of $3699.37. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.4% to $3733.70. The dollar dropped to its lowest level in over two months against other currencies. Gold becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies when the dollar weakens. Gold is gaining in popularity due to the anticipation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. If the dot plot indicates a change to two rate reductions in 2025, it could drive the gold rally, pushing the price beyond $3,700/oz, with $3,800/oz being a realistic possibility. According to CME FedWatch, traders are pricing in an almost certain 25-bps rate reduction at the end a two-day session on September 17. There is a slight chance of a 50%-bps cut. In a Monday social media post, U.S. president Donald Trump called on Fed chair Jerome Powell for a "bigger rate cut". Stephen Miran was narrowly confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be a member of the board of governors at the Federal Reserve. In a low interest rate environment, non-yielding gold bullion is likely to perform well. Commerzbank has raised its gold price prediction to $3.600 per troy-ounce by the year's end and to $3.800 by 2026. Bullion prices have risen by 41% in the past year, and multiple records were set. This is due to central banks' sustained purchases, diversification from the U.S. Dollar, and resilient demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and trade frictions. Silver spot was also up 0.2%, at $42.81 an ounce. This is the highest price since September 2011. Palladium was up 1.6% at $1,203.19 and platinum gained 0.6%. (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)
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Document shows that coal mines in Inner Mongolia, China have been shut down for exceeding production plans.
Inner Mongolia, China’s largest coal producing region, ordered 15 mines halted production after it was found that they had exceeded their approved output plan, according to a document by the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Energy Bureau. China has launched inspections of major coal hubs and asked local authorities whether the mines have exceeded production in 2024 or the first half 2025. Beijing is trying to combat overcapacity. The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Energy Bureau confirmed that the document detailing key details and the results of the region’s production capacity inspection was correct. In the first half 2025, 15 Ordos mines were found to have exceeded their capacity by 10%. According to the document, they have been told to suspend their operations. They may only resume after passing inspections from regional safety regulators. The document didn't provide a timetable for the inspections. According to Mysteel a Chinese commodity consultancy firm, the halted mines had a combined annual production capacity of 34.6 million tons. Five of the fifteen mines with a combined capacity of 19,3 million tonnes per year were ordered by September 16 to suspend production between five and seven days because of safety hazards. According to Mysteel, four mines have resumed normal production since the inspections. The most traded coking coal contract in China on the Dalian Commodity Exchange increased 5.84% or 68.5 Yuan ($9.63) per ton on Monday. The market rose after the state-run media reported President Xi Jinping’s Monday call for an "orderly withdrawal" of outdated production capacities and the curbing "disorderly price competition". Reporting by Sam Li in Beijing and Colleen howe, with editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise.
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EnCore Energy begins to seek state permits for the Dewey Burdock Uranium Project
enCore Energy, a South Dakota-based uranium company, announced on Tuesday that it would begin the process of obtaining state permits this year for its Dewey Burdock Project. This is ahead of schedule. In premarket trading, shares of the company increased by 3.6%. The announcement follows the denial of a review request by the Black Hills Clean Water Alliance, the Oglala Sioux Tribe, and the NDN Collective. They had contested the federal permits for the project. The petition alleged that the EPA had violated several laws, including the Safe Drinking Water Act and the Administrative Procedure Act. The appeals board, however, said that regulators acted correctly in approving permits for underground injection wells, which are crucial to in-situ recovery of uranium. The ruling allows Dewey Burdock, a leading nuclear materials manufacturer in the United States, to move forward with state permits by 2025. It also finalizes major federal authorizations including a license for nuclear materials. EnCore stated that the project is still in a federal expedited permitting program. In April, the White House announced that it would expedite permitting for 10 mining project across the United States as part of President Donald Trump’s efforts to expand vital minerals production. The World Nuclear Association stated earlier this month that the demand for uranium to fuel nuclear reactors will increase by nearly 30% over the next five year as more countries rely on nuclear energy to achieve zero-carbon goals. (Reporting and editing by Pooja menon in Bengaluru)
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Thyssenkrupp receives a non-binding offer from India's Jindal Steel for a steel unit
Thyssenkrupp announced on Tuesday that it had received a nonbinding offer from India's Jinal Steel for its steel division, without disclosing further details. Thyssenkrupp stated that it would carefully examine the offer made by Thyssenkrupp Europe (TKSE), "especially in regard to economic sustainability and the continuation of green transformation, as well as employment at our steel plants". After the news, shares of Thyssenkrupp rose 2.1%. Thyssenkrupp sold a 20% share in TKSE to Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky last year, with the intention of selling a 30% additional stake to create a joint venture 50-50. The powerful union IG Metall criticized the move. It said Kretinsky hadn't provided information on his strategic plans in his role as a coshareholder. Juergen Kerner, deputy supervisory board chair and senior IG Metall members at Thyssenkrupp, said that the news of the Jindal Steel offer was a good one. He said: "It's important that we enter into substantive discussion quickly to get clarity as soon as possible on the most significant open questions." (Reporting and editing by Rachel More, with Christoph Steitz)
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Sinopec to start work soon on $3.7 billion refinery in Sri Lanka, and bid for another refinery expansion
The energy minister announced on Tuesday that Sri Lanka is expecting the Chinese state energy giant Sinopec, to begin construction on a $3.7-billion refinery in this year. They are also considering the long-standing request of the company to sell more local fuel. In an interview in his office, Energy Minister Kumara Jayakody stated that the Sinopec refinery approved in 2023 will have a capacity of processing 200,000 barrels per day. It will be located close to the Chinese-built Hambantota Port in southern Sri Lanka. He said, "The land is already allocated to them and they've done all the other facilities." "The government... we all share the same expectations and idea about this project. (That it will begin this year)" Anil Jayantha, Sri Lanka's deputy minister for economic development, told a separate reporter that Sinopec would take three years to finish the project. Sinopec, according to a Chinese executive familiar with the project and the Sri Lankan government's latest proposal on the fuel market, has been waiting months for this latest proposal. The minister and an official stated that Sri Lanka previously wanted Sinopec only to sell 20% of its refinery output domestically and the rest exported. However, it is now considering proposals allowing the company up to 40% to be sold locally. Sinopec's spokesperson declined to make any comment. Arjuna Herath is the chair of the Board of Investment of Sri Lanka. She said, "From what we hear, they say that if they do not have greater access to the market, the feasibility and viability (could) be challenging." The point is being negotiated - whether or not it should be 30, 40% (percentage) or another point. There is a great deal of commitment in order to work out this issue. Sri Lanka imports the majority of its fuel. Jayakody stated that Sri Lanka plans to invest $3 billion in order to increase the refinery's capacity from 38,000 to 150,000 barrels per day. Sinopec, along with companies from China, India, and Qatar, have expressed interest in the project. He said that expansion work at Ceylon Petroleum's refinery will begin next year and be completed in two to three more years. Sinopec attended Sri Lanka's tender presentation early this month about the refinery expansion. The Chinese executive declined to provide further details. Sinopec has until the 26th of September to submit a statement of interest. The executive refused to be named as he wasn't authorised to talk to media. The details of the project have never been previously reported. Sri Lanka is a key point of rivalry between China, India and other nations. Both countries have invested heavily in energy and infrastructure projects in order to increase their influence on the 22 million-strong island nation in the Indian Ocean. India announced earlier this year that it was working to establish an energy hub along Sri Lanka's east coast. Jayakody said that the location of our country is extremely important in terms of geopolitics, particularly since many sea routes pass nearby. "On the one hand, we have India and other countries are going down the same path, so, our country gains automatically and naturally some important geopolitical benefits." Chen Aizhu contributed additional reporting from Singapore. Tony Munroe, Mark Potter and Tony Munroe edited the article.
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Iron ore is a robust alternative to China's soft steel: Russell
In August, the gap between China's steel industry and its appetite for iron ore imports widened. This highlights the difference between hope and reality. China, which produces just over half the world's steel, saw its output fall for a third consecutive month in August, to 77.37 millions metric tons. The month was the weakest since December and was down by 0.7% compared to August and 2.9% compared to the 79.66 millions tons recorded in July. The steel output in the first eight-month period was 671.81 millions tons, which is a decrease of 2.8% compared to the same period last year. Iron ore imports and prices remain robust, despite the weakness in steel. According to data released by the Chinese government last week, China imported 105.23 millions tons of seaborne iron ore in August. This was the third consecutive month that imports were above 100 million tonnes. This trend is expected to continue into September when commodity analysts Kpler predict imports of 112.2 millions tons. If achieved, this would be the highest level since December of last year. Iron ore prices have also been rising, with benchmark futures at the Singapore Exchange closing Monday at $105.50 per ton, just under the six-month peak of $106.75 reached on September 9. The front-month contract has increased 13% since its lowest point of this year, which was $93.35 per ton on July 1. The price of iron ore is rising due to the strong Chinese demand. But why are steel mills purchasing more of this key raw material when they are experiencing lower production and shrinking margins? Answer: They are still hopeful that Beijing's efforts at stimulating steel-intensive industries, such as construction will be fruitful. It is difficult to prove this, as new home prices dropped by 0.3% from August of the previous month. This is a continuation of a downward trend which began in May 2023. The number of new construction starts is also low, falling 19.5% from August 2024 to August 2018. SEPTEMBER STEEL RECYCLING The positive side is that there's optimism about the steel production in September, after the disappointing August results. Some of this was attributed to production cuts to reduce pollution before the military parade of Beijing on September 3, which marks the end of World War Two. Even if the steel production does improve in September, it is unclear how large or long-lasting this recovery will be. Beijing is thought to have an informal goal that the annual steel production be kept at the same level of around 1 billion tonnes that has prevailed over the last five years. After subtracting the total steel production for the year from 1 billion tons, there are 328 millions tons left over to use in the final four months of the calendar year. This is an average of about 82 million tonnes per month. There is room for growth in the third quarter and September. The visible inventories of iron ore and steel have increased but remain at levels which suggest that more stockpiles could be added. Stocks of steel rebar SteelHome consultants monitored the rise to 4,69 million tons during the week ending September 12. Rebar stocks tend to peak in March after a build-up over the winter months. The current level, however, is below the peak of March 2025 at 6.36 million tonnes and the 8.37 millions tons from March 2024. Iron ore stocks at China's port The week ending September 12 saw a drop to 132.6 millions tons from the 149.4 that was recorded in the same period last year. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
Dollar falls as traders bet on Fed rate cuts
Investors bought U.S. assets, assuming that the Federal Reserve will cut rates. They sold equities, however, in Europe where the borrowing costs are unlikely to drop much more.
The MSCI all-country index rose 0.46%, reaching new records. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.19%. This was mainly due to declines among rate-sensitive insurers and banks, who stand to lose if the European Central Bank doesn't cut euro zone interest rates any further.
James Rossiter is the head of global macro-strategy at TD Securities, London. He said that markets are realizing there won't be any more cuts from the ECB. This has a negative impact on expectations for Fed to resume its easing policy.
The money markets now only see a 40% probability of an ECB cut by 25 bps in June 2026, down from 50% last week.
STOCKS SCALE NEW HEIGHTS
Stocks reached new highs on Wall Street as the markets were buoyant in recent sessions. This was due to expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures are up 0.2%. This indicates that the indexes will continue to rally after reaching new highs on Monday.
Futures have already priced over 127 basis points worth of Fed reductions by July 2026. This means that policymakers will need to work hard to keep investors hopeful.
There do appear to be quite some rate cuts already priced in. "On balance, that might suggest that the bar for an unexpected hawkish move is lower than for one that's dovish," said Thomas Mathews.
The Fed is likely to stick with its cautious approach in communicating and not reveal much.
The markets reacted little to the news that Stephen Miran was narrowly confirmed to the Board of Governors of the U.S. central bank by the U.S. Senate, and that a U.S. court of appeals refused to allow President Donald Trump to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Both moves were not seen as likely to change the Fed's Wednesday decision, in which a 25 basis-point reduction is fully priced.
Bank of Canada and Bank of England will also likely hold their rates this week.
Other officials from the U.S., China and other countries said that they reached a framework deal on Monday to transfer ownership of TikTok (a short video app) to U.S. control. This agreement will be confirmed during a call between President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping this Friday.
The Dollar: Pressure on the Dollar
Fed's decision to cut bets has kept the pressure on the dollar. On Tuesday, it fell to its lowest level since July 4, against a basket currency.
The euro traded at its highest level since early July. This was also the highest level since September 2021. The dollar was up 0.4% to $1.1811. The sterling reached its highest level in more than two months, at $1.3641.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note was the last to reach 3.5345%, after falling the previous session. The benchmark 10-year rate was nearly flat at 4.0432%.
Investors assessed the impact that Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian refineries had on oil prices.
Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $67.79 a barrel. U.S. crude oil futures increased 0.8% to $63.74 per barrel.
The spot gold price reached a record high of just under $3,700 per ounce. This was boosted by the weaker dollar, and expectations of a Fed rate reduction.
(source: Reuters)