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Gold gains as tensions between Iran and Israel offset dollar strength
The gold price edged higher on Monday as the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel outweighed the pressure of a stronger dollar. Markets are closely monitoring Iran's next moves. As of 1339 GMT, the spot gold price was up by 0.2% to $3,375.79 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.2% to $3,391.70. The U.S. Dollar index increased by 0.5%. Gold becomes less affordable to other currency holders when the U.S. dollar is stronger. Israel bombed the Evin prison, a powerful symbol of Iran's ruling system in the north of Tehran. Israel described the attack as its most intense yet in the Iranian capital, just a day after America joined the war. Iran has also repeated its earlier threats of retaliation against the U.S. "If we do not see significant inflation, on top of the tariffs we are already experiencing, this will lead to more risk appetite." Bart Melek is the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. He said that gold purchases as a safe haven may be reduced, at least temporarily. He added, "I believe prices will remain fairly stable and may even move up or down around $75." Gold has traditionally been seen as an inflation hedge and a safe place to invest in times of uncertainty. Gold's appeal is reduced by higher interest rates, since it does not generate any return. Investors are also awaiting the U.S. The Personal Consumption Spending data is due this week. Last week, policymakers hinted at possible rate reductions later this year. However, Chair Jerome Powell expressed his uncertainty over tariff policy and the economic response. Spot silver rose 0.4% to $36.14 an ounce, while platinum rose 2.1% at $1,291.50. Palladium rose 2.0% to $1,070.09 reaching its highest since June 12. (Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
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What is the scope of the UN's nuclear watchdog in Iran?
Since Israel's military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities on 13 June, the U.N. nuclear watchdog that polices the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has been unable to conduct inspections in Iran. The International Atomic Energy Agency has a number of inspection powers. IS THE IAEA UNIVERSAL IN JURISDICTION? No. The IAEA has agreements with other countries that do not fall under its oversight. Iran is a signatory to the NPT, and is therefore subject to IAEA supervision. This includes inspections to ensure that nuclear material like uranium does not get "diverted", for example to be used in atomic weapons. Israel is not a signatory to the NPT, but is widely believed to be the only nuclear-armed country in the Middle East. Israel doesn't confirm or deny possessing them. The IAEA has signed a limited agreement that allows it to supervise some materials and facilities. This is a fraction of the material and facilities Israel possesses and does not include any of the nuclear weapons programme widely believed to exist in Israel. Iran, by contrast, has a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) with the IAEA under which it must account for all its proliferation-sensitive nuclear material, including every gram of enriched uranium. Can the IAEA go anywhere, anytime in Iran? No. No. The IAEA had access to these facilities regularly until the attack. The IAEA said that since then the facilities have been "closed", and inspectors are not allowed to enter. HAS THE IAEA HAD POWERS PRIOR? Yes. Yes. The IAEA's oversight of Iran was the most extensive ever. As part of the 2015 pact with the IAEA, Iran agreed to add the Additional Protocol to the CSAs of countries. The IAEA created this protocol to increase its ability to prevent nuclear proliferation. Iran has signed the Additional Protocol but not ratified it. The Additional Protocol grants the IAEA the ability to conduct snap inspections, which are short notice visits to places that Iran may not have declared as nuclear related. Why does it no longer have such sweeping powers? In 2018, President Donald Trump, during his first term in office, pulled the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear agreement, reimposing U.S. sanction on Iran, which had been lifted under the agreement. As a result, Iran started pushing beyond the limits of the nuclear deal the following year. It also reduced the additional IAEA supervision introduced by the agreement. In February 2021, Iran announced that it would not be fulfilling its additional commitments made under the 2015 agreement. This included the implementation of the Additional Protocol. The IAEA agreed to continue monitoring equipment, such as surveillance cameras, added under the 2015 deal. However, Iran ordered their removal in June 2022. What was lost with the extra Oversight? Snap inspections, an important tool for IAEA oversight, were removed. The IAEA's reduced oversight left blind spots where extra oversight was applied. IAEA says that because it has been losing "continuity" of knowledge for many years, it won't be able fully to piece together what has happened. This includes the production of centrifuges, their inventory and some key parts of centrifuges as well as Iran’s stock of “yellowcake” – uranium which has not yet been enriched. It is not impossible that many centrifuges, which are still unaccounted for, will be used in secret to enrich uranium at an undeclared site. A small warehouse would make it easy to conceal such a facility. IAEA cannot guarantee that Iran's nuclear activities are entirely peaceful, but there is no evidence of a coordinated nuclear weapon programme. What if Iran pulls out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty? Iran has threatened withdrawal from the NPT while at the same saying that it would not be developing nuclear weapons in the event of such a development. Tehran complained that the non-proliferation treaty failed to protect them from an attack by the United States and Israel, two countries widely believed to possess nuclear weapons. The NPT allows a withdrawal by a country with three months notice, "if they decide that extraordinary events related to the subject of this Treaty have compromised the supreme interest of their country". North Korea, the only country that has announced its withdrawal from NPT in 2003 is North Korea. It was this country who expelled IAEA inspections before testing nuclear weaponry. (Reporting and editing by Mark Heinrich; Francois Murphy)
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U.S. officials warn that Iran could soon retaliate against U.S. troops.
Two U.S. officials stated on Monday that the United States believes Iran will soon launch a retaliatory attack against American forces in the Middle East, but the U.S. still seeks a diplomatic solution whereby Tehran would refrain from any attacks. Unnamed officials who discussed the assessment under condition of anonymity said that Iran's retaliatory strike could occur within the next two days. Iran has threatened retaliation after the U.S. bombed their nuclear sites on the weekend. U.S. officials warned Iran not to retaliate against the U.S. President Donald Trump stated after the strikes that any retaliation from Iran against the U.S. will be met with force that is far greater than the U.S. attack of the weekend. General Dan Caine said that on Sunday, the U.S. Military had increased the protection of its troops in the area, including in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. Nearly 40,000 US troops are in the Middle East. Some of these forces operate air defense systems and fighter aircraft that can detect and shoot at incoming enemy missiles, but their positions remain vulnerable. Last week, it was reported that the Pentagon has moved aircraft and ships out of bases in the Middle East which could be vulnerable to an Iranian attack. This included aircraft being taken from the 24-hectare Al Udeid Air Base in the desert near Doha. The base is the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East and has around 10,000 troops. Tehran has pledged to defend and retaliate. It was still not targeting U.S. bases, or blocking a quarter of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Reporting by Phil Stewart, Idrees Ali and Alistair Bell
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Germany's Merz says EU's approach to US Trade Talks is 'far too complex'
The German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the European Union’s approach to the trade negotiations with the United States “far too complex”, saying that the bloc should focus instead on reaching agreements for only a few major sectors. Merz stated during an event organized by the BDI Industrial lobby that "the Americans are relatively simple minded and geared toward reaching an agreement with me on four or five main industries." He said that the European Commission (the executive body that negotiates trade agreements for the 27-nation block) should focus on chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and machinery. President Donald Trump announced a wide range of tariffs against trade partners, and wants to reduce U.S. goods deficit with EU. Trump has imposed a 50% tariff in Europe on steel and aluminum, as well as a 25% tax on cars. The EU is now trying to reach a deal with Trump before the 9th of July when reciprocal tariffs could increase from 10% up to 50% on other goods. Maros Séfcovic, EU Trade Commissioner, said earlier that there are intensive discussions with the United States covering all economic sectors. (Reporting and editing by Ludwig Burger. Friederike Heine)
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Sources say that Mali authorities have reopened Barrick Mining's office in the capital.
Two people familiar with the matter said that Malian tax officials reopened Barrick Mining’s office in the capital, under the supervision of a court appointed administrator. The office had been closed in April due to alleged nonpayment of taxes. This is the first major development since the Malian court, on 16 June, placed the Canadian miner’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex under state control. It was a major escalation in the long-running dispute over taxes. Barrick said that it would appeal the decision. It appointed former Malian Health Minister, Soumana Maadji as its provisional administrator. Makadji will likely restart the complex's operations soon. Three people with knowledge of the situation say that he will visit the site this week. On Monday afternoon, he will be meeting with Barrick employees and subcontractors in the Bamako offices. Barrick's and Mali's Mines Ministry spokespeople did not immediately reply to requests for comments. Barrick and government have been negotiating since 2023 about the implementation of the new mining code, which raises taxes and grants the government a larger share in gold mines. The Loulo-Gounkoto mine complex has been operating for several years. Since mid-January, the suspension of all flights has been in effect Barrick has been forced to close its Bamako office after the Malian military government seized three tons of gold stocks. Barrick's Bamako main office has been closed for several months. (Reporting and editing by Portia Crowe; Joe Bavier).
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Limitations of the UN's nuclear watchdog in Iran
Since Israel's military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities on 13 June, the U.N. nuclear watchdog that polices the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has been unable to conduct inspections in Iran. The International Atomic Energy Agency has a number of inspection powers. IS THE IAEA UNIVERSAL IN JURISDICTION? No. The IAEA has separate agreements with other countries and is only responsible for the 191 signatories of the NPT. Iran is a signatory to the NPT, and is therefore subject to IAEA supervision. This includes inspections to ensure that nuclear material like uranium does not get "diverted", for example to be used in atomic weapons. Israel is the only Middle Eastern country widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, despite not being a signatory to the NPT. Israel doesn't confirm or deny possessing them. The IAEA has signed a limited agreement that allows it to supervise some materials and facilities. This is a fraction of the material and facilities Israel has, and does not include any of the nuclear weapons programme widely believed to exist in Israel. Iran, by contrast, has a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) with the IAEA under which it must account for all its proliferation-sensitive nuclear material, including every gram of enriched uranium. Can the IAEA go anywhere, anytime in Iran? No. No. The IAEA had access to these facilities regularly until the attack. The IAEA said that since then the facilities have been "closed", and that inspectors are not allowed to enter. HAS THE IAEA HAD PRIOR POWERS? Yes. Yes. The IAEA's oversight of Iran was the most extensive ever. As part of the 2015 pact with the IAEA, Iran agreed to add the Additional Protocol to the CSAs of countries. The IAEA created this protocol to increase its ability to prevent nuclear proliferation. Iran has signed the Additional Protocol but not ratified it. The Additional Protocol grants the IAEA the ability to conduct snap inspections, which are short notice visits to places that Iran may not have declared as nuclear related. Why does it no longer have such sweeping powers? In 2018, President Donald Trump, during his first term in office, pulled the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear agreement, reimposing U.S. sanction on Iran, which had been lifted under the agreement. As a result, Iran started pushing beyond the limits of the nuclear deal the following year. It also reduced the additional IAEA supervision introduced by the agreement. In February 2021, Iran announced that it would not be fulfilling its additional commitments made under the 2015 agreement. This included the implementation of the Additional Protocol. The IAEA agreed to continue monitoring equipment, such as surveillance cameras, added under the 2015 deal. However, Iran ordered their removal in June 2022. What was lost with the extra Oversight? Snap inspections, an important tool for IAEA oversight, were removed. The IAEA's reduced oversight left blind spots where extra oversight was applied. IAEA says that because it has been losing "continuity" of knowledge for many years, it won't be able fully to piece together what has happened. This includes the production of centrifuges, their inventory and some key parts of centrifuges as well as Iran’s stock of “yellowcake” – uranium which hasn’t been enriched. It is not impossible that many centrifuges, which are still unaccounted for, will be used in secret to enrich uranium at an undeclared site. A small warehouse would make it easy to conceal such a facility. IAEA cannot guarantee that Iran's nuclear activities are entirely peaceful, but there is no evidence of a coordinated nuclear weapon programme. What if Iran pulls out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty? Iran has threatened withdrawal from the NPT while also saying that it will not develop nuclear weapons in the event of such a development. Tehran complained that the non-proliferation treaty failed to protect them from an attack by the United States and Israel, two countries widely believed to possess nuclear weapons. The NPT allows a withdrawal by a country with three months notice, "if they decide that extraordinary events relating to the subject of this Treaty have compromised the supreme interest of their country". North Korea, the only country that has announced its withdrawal from NPT in 2003 is North Korea. It was this country who expelled IAEA inspections before testing nuclear weaponry. (Reporting and editing by Mark Heinrich; Francois Murphy)
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Sources say that maintenance at Russia's Sakhalin-1 will stop crude production in August.
Three industry sources have confirmed that Rosneft, Russia's largest oil company, will stop producing its export-oriented Sokol crude at the Sakhalin-1 project on its far eastern Sakhalin coast in August due to maintenance. One of them said that the maintenance would last 20 to 25 days. According to another source, the maintenance will begin in late July. It is expected to be completed at the end of August. One source said that maintenance on one of the compressors will cause the oil production to drop slightly in July to 135,000 barrels a day, from the usual 150,000-160,000 barrels a day, due to the normal decline of 150,000-160,000 barrels bpd. No sources were named as they weren't authorised to publicly speak on the subject. Rosneft has not responded to the request for comment. The Sakhalin oilfields are subject to routine maintenance. Due to Western sanctions on Russia's energy sector, which have been in place since 2022 due to the conflict in Ukraine, the export of Sokol from the Sakhalin-1 Project has been a challenge. ExxonMobil's withdrawal from the project in that year led to a suspension of production and shipments for several months. Due to the sanctions against several tankers in 2024 and the difficulties of making international payments, Sokol oil was left in floating storage looking for buyers for several weeks. ExxonMobil owned a 30% stake as operator in Sakhalin-1. This project is to develop oil and natural gas off the coasts of Sakhalin Island. The U.S. firm, India's ONGC Videsh, and Japan's SODECO were partners. Exxon will write off $4.6 billion in 2022 for leaving the Sakhalin-1 project, leaving Rosneft to control it. (Reporting from Nidhi in New Delhi, and reporters in Moscow. Editing by Barbara Lewis.)
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Egypt wants more fuel oil in August to power its electricity generation
Five trading sources said that Egypt wants to buy more fuel oil in order to meet its electricity generation needs. Fuel oil has been purchased in greater quantities by the country this year to ease a gas shortage that resulted from the loss of gas pipelines connecting Israel and Egypt. According to trading sources, the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation is looking for about 900,000.0 metric tons (tonnage) of fuel oil in its latest tender. One source said that the tender will be closed on July 2, and valid until July 10. The Egyptian Petroleum Ministry didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. An Egyptian source stated that Egypt consumes approximately 40,000 metric tonnes of fuel oil each day for electricity production. Egypt increased its LNG imports in this year, aside from fuel oil to meet the country's power generation needs. In the last two years, Egypt has experienced blackouts due to a fluctuating gas supply. Israel's Energy Ministry said that the country has resumed exporting natural gas from its surplus. This comes nearly a week since Israel and Iran engaged in an aerial battle. (Reporting from Jeslyn Leh in Singapore, Enes Tunagur in London and Mohamed Ezz at Cairo; editing by Vijay Kishore & Kevin Liffey).
Investors ponder Iran risks as they wiggle between oil and shares
Investors awaited a possible Iranian retaliation following U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. The fallout could have a negative impact on global trade and inflation.
The markets remained calm, with the dollar receiving a modest bid as a safe-haven and no signs of a rush towards bonds. Oil prices rose just 0.4% after having risen as high as 5.7% overnight.
Paul Jackson, Invesco’s global head for asset allocation research said: "If you keep your head while others around you lose theirs, you may not understand the situation."
He said that time would tell whether a lack in market reaction was naivete or an accurate assessment of the current situation.
The STOXX 600, a pan-European index of stocks, fell 0.2% on Monday.
Some market participants had hoped that Iran would back down and curtail its nuclear ambitions, or that a regime change could bring a less hostile administration to power.
"That said," said Charu C. Chanana of Saxo, Chief Investment Strategist, "any sign of Iranian retaliation, or threat of the Strait of Hormuz, could quickly change sentiment, and force markets reprice geopolitical risks more aggressively."
At its narrowest, the Strait of Hormuz measures only 33 km (21 mi) in width. Around a quarter of all global oil and natural gas trade passes through it.
JPMorgan analysts warned that previous episodes of regime changes in the region resulted in an average 30% increase in oil prices over time and as high as 76%.
Goldman Sachs has warned that prices could temporarily reach $110 per barrel if the waterway is closed for one month.
Brent crude and U.S. Crude are both currently up 0.4%, at $77.32 a barrel and $74.10, respectively. Gold remained largely unchanged at $3,365 per ounce.
RESILIENCE
The world share markets were moderately resilient. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both rose 0.2%.
The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan dropped 0.9%. Shares in Taiwan fell by 1.42%, while blue chips in China closed up 0.3%, and Japan's Nikkei declined 0.1%.
Japan's manufacturing data showed on Monday that the country returned to growth after nearly a full year of contraction. However, demand conditions are still present.
The dollar rose 1.25% versus the yen, and reached 147.885, its highest level since May 15. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.2% to $1.1497. The dollar index rose marginally to 99.339.
The yields on 10-year Treasuries rose by about 2 basis points, to 4,389%.
The markets still only see a small chance that the Fed will lower rates at its July 30 meeting, even after Fed Governor Christopher Waller broke rank and called for an easing in July.
The majority of other Fed members including Chair Jerome Powell have been more conservative on policy. This has led markets to bet that a reduction is more likely in September.
Powell will face two days of lawmakers' questions, likely relating to U.S. Tariffs and the attack against Iran's nuclear site. The U.S. weekly unemployment claims and core inflation figures are due, as well as early readings of June factory activity around the world.
(source: Reuters)