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Dollar soars as Fed rate cuts bets are lowered, causing Asia shares to struggle
The Asian stock market was under pressure Wednesday, while the dollar rose to its strongest level against the yen in early April. This is after U.S. Inflation suggested that tariffs were pushing up prices, reducing expectations of Federal Reserve policy ease. The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds reached its highest level in over a month. This lifted the dollar, especially against the yen. Tech shares, however, remained resilient after a 4% rise in the artificial intelligence darling Nvidia over night. Brent crude has remained at $69 per barrel. The data released on Tuesday shows that U.S. consumer price rose by 0.3% in the month of June. This was in line with expectations, but it was also the biggest gain since January. Economists attribute the increase in prices of goods like coffee and home furnishings, to the Trump administration’s increasing import tariffs. The Fed has kept interest rates at the same level as it awaited indications on the inflationary effect of tariffs that Chair Jerome Powell said he anticipated in the summer. Taylor Nugent is a senior economist with National Australia Bank. In a podcast, he said: "We know that Fed Chair Powell and a few colleagues are waiting for the tariff effects to be seen. This data has bolstered that view." Nugent stated that as a result of this, the markets have seen "a fairly substantial trimming of Fed expectation" regarding rate cuts. This has led to a decline in so-called risky assets, such as equity. Traders are currently pricing in 44 basis points in U.S. interest rate reductions this year. The odds of a quarter point cut in September is 56.5%. Investors will be closely monitoring the producer price data, due on Wednesday. They are looking for any signs that inflationary pressures may also be building in factories. The KOSPI, the South Korean equity index, fell 1% and Australia's benchmark equity index lost 0.8%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng remained flat, after a loss of early gains. The Nikkei, Japan's technology and exporter-heavy stock index, was little changed despite a series of small gains and losses. A weaker yen provided support. Taiwan's tech heavy benchmark increased by 0.9%. U.S. S&P futures eased by 0.2% after a 0.4% drop for the cash index overnight. The STOXX50 futures for Europe fell 0.3%. Earnings season is also a major focus for investors, beyond the Fed and President Donald Trump's tariffs. JPMorgan Chase's and Citigroup's results were better than expected, but the market reaction was mixed. Wells Fargo lowered its net interest income forecast for 2025, despite exceeding expectations in the second quarter. Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are among the banks that will be reporting earnings on Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury yields in the United States rose to a record high of 4.495% Wednesday, the highest level since June 11. The dollar remained close to its multi-week high versus major peers. The dollar index is little changed at 98.525, after reaching a high of 98.699 for the first since June 23. The U.S. dollar was unchanged at 148.835 Japanese yen and had earlier risen to 149.19 for the first since April 3 in the wake of Trump's "Liberation Day tariff announcement". The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1619 in an attempt to recover from the three-week low reached on Tuesday of $1.1593 Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency, added about 1%, to $117.890. It stabilised after its 6% drop earlier this week, from Monday's high of $123,153.22. Gold increased by 0.5%, trading at $3,338 per ounce. Brent crude futures dropped 18 cents, to $68.89 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 31 cents at $66.83. Both contracts closed more than $1 lower the previous session.
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Drones attack oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan for the third time this week
On Wednesday, drones carrying bombs attacked oilfields in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Two fields operated by Norway’s DNO had to stop production. DNO, the oil and gas company that operates the Tawke-Peshkabir fields in the Zakho region, bordering Turkey, has temporarily suspended production following explosions which caused no injuries. Kurdistan’s counter-terrorism agency posted a Facebook message that three drones were used to attack the fields, but no one was injured. Only material damage occurred. DNO stated that "the damage assessment has begun and the company anticipates restarting production as soon as the assessment is complete." Later, another oilfield operated by U.S. based Hunt Oil was also attacked in the Dohuk area of northern Iraq. The attack was not further described. A drone attack on Tuesday halted the production of the Sarsang Oilfield in Iraq's Kurdistan Region, just hours before the U.S. operator had signed a contract with the Iraqi Government to develop another oilfield. The attack has not been claimed by any group, but Iraqi Kurdistan's security sources have said that preliminary investigations suggest the drone was launched from areas controlled by Iran-backed militias. Two drones damaged the water pipes in the Khurmala field near Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan on Monday.
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New Zealand weather events prompt government housing protections to be re-thought
New Zealand's government may end bailouts to homeowners who have been affected by landslides and floods as it creates a climate change framework. In recent years, as severe weather events caused by climate change have increased in frequency and intensity, the government has spent billions on buying properties. Christopher Luxon, New Zealand's Prime Minister, told Radio New Zealand that the government "won’t be able" to continue bailing people out in this manner. "We have to figure out how to handle these situations going forward, and who is responsible and if there's a shared liability." He made his comments as authorities in the South Island began cleaning up areas affected by floods that occurred this month. The flooding, according to local officials, affected approximately 800 homes. On Wednesday, the government announced a compensation package of NZ$600,000. ($356,700.) for farmers, growers, and forest owners who were affected by floods. Climate Sigma research estimates that by 2060, at least 14,500 homes, worth about NZ$12,5 billion, could be affected by at least one damaging flooding, or around 300 to 400 homes per year. Climate Minister Simon Watts stated in an email the government is working on getting bipartisan support for a national adaption framework to give New Zealand confidence. He said that the work was complex and difficult. It is vital that any changes are long-lasting. It is likely that any policy changes will be implemented slowly. Recent independent reports commissioned by Ministry of Environment suggested that a transition would be made over a period of 20 years, to allow for pricing adjustments as the expectations of government bailouts become lessened. When it rains hard, flooding occurs on Graham McIntyre's property. Water rushes through the house. He said that the three rivers that run through his land, which he purchased 25 years ago in Auckland, are like a "wave" coming through. He wants the authorities to purchase his house in Taupaki, and relocate the town centre nearby. Both towns were inundated in 2023. "Can't do anything" Policymakers, property experts and researchers in New Zealand and Australia warn that climate change is an issue homebuyers haven't priced into their budgets. The Ministry of Environment recommended that owners be given more information on the impact of natural hazards, so they can decide whether or not to stay in a particular area and pay the associated costs. In New Zealand, property records increasingly include information about flood and landslide risks or histories of both. Homeowners in areas at risk are concerned that their homes will lose value. McIntyre replied, "You can do nothing." You can't give up. You can't change it." Kelvin Davidson said that it was hard to estimate the impact of climate risk on property prices because of limited data about events such as flooding and different acceptance of risks by buyers. He said that "the rubber hasn't hit the road" in terms of price.
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China's surplus crude is a major factor in the June surge of refiners' options, says Russell
In June, China increased the rate at which it builds crude oil stocks as its strongest imports for almost two years overshadowed a rise of refinery processing. China's crude surplus reached 1.42 million barrels a day (bpd), up from 1.40 in May, and was the fourth consecutive month that the level of 1 million bpd was exceeded. China's crude surplus for the first half 2025 was 1.06 million barrels per day, after strong oil imports in the second quarter overcame the soft start of the year. China's refiners have options in the coming months. They can trim imports, if they feel that oil prices are too high as a result last month of the Israel-Iran war. China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of its strategic and commercial stockspiles. However, an estimate can still be made by subtracting the amount processed from the total crude available through imports and domestic production. According to calculations based upon official data released Tuesday, refiners processed 15,15 million bpd during June. This is an 8.8% increase from May, and the highest since September 2023. In June, crude oil imports from the world's biggest importer reached 12,14 million barrels per day, the highest rate since August 2023 and an increase of 7.1% compared to May. In June, domestic oil production increased to 4.43 million barrels per day (bpd) from 4.35 in May. After subtracting the 15.15 million barrels per day of refinery output, there is a surplus 1.42 million barrels per day. Not all this excess crude has likely been stored, as some is processed in plants that are not included in the official data. Even if you ignore the gaps in official data, there is no doubt that since March China has imported crude oil at a rate far greater than what it requires to meet its own domestic fuel needs. Price Moves China is known to import more crude oil than necessary when the price of crude oil is low. However, it pulls back when prices increase. Imports surged in the second quarter, despite falling crude oil prices at the time the cargoes were arranged. Brent crude oil futures fell from $75.47 per barrel on April 2, to a low of $58.50, a four-year high on May 5. This was the period when cargoes arriving in the second quarter could have been secured. In contrast, China's low crude imports during the first quarter occurred after prices rose in the window where those cargoes were purchased. Brent rose from $70.85 per barrel in December to $82.63 on January 15. This meant that China's refiners faced rising import costs on cargoes arriving during the first quarter. Brent prices have fluctuated in recent weeks due to the conflict that erupted between Israel and Iran, later joined by United States. Brent crude oil reached a six month high of $81.40 per barrel on June 23, but has since moderated, ending at $68.71 a barrel on Tuesday. Concerns are growing over the economic impact on the world of higher import tariffs announced by U.S. president Donald Trump. China's refiners may reduce imports in August and September due to this volatility, but it depends on whether or not the spike in June is a temporary blip in an otherwise declining price trend. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Prices of oil rise on the back of summer demand despite economic woes
The oil prices rose on Tuesday, driven by the expectation of a strong summer in the two world's largest consumers: the United States and China. However, gains were limited by the caution expressed by analysts about the economy as a whole. Prices have been fluctuating in a narrow range, as the signs of steady demand due to an increase in summer travel in the Northern Hemisphere have been competing with fears that U.S. Tariffs on trading partners would slow economic growth and fuel usage. Brent crude futures were up 13 cents or 0.2% to $68.84 per barrel at 0411 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 25 cents or 0.4% to $66.77. The market has downplayed any potential supply disruptions following the threat by U.S. president Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Russian oil purchases. The major oil producers point to better economic growth for the second half of this year, while China's data shows consistent growth. In a recent note, LSEG analysts stated that "strong seasonal demand" is driving up oil prices as the summer season brings a peak in industrial and travel activity. The increased gasoline consumption in the U.S., particularly during the Fourth of Jul holiday period, indicates robust fuel demand. This helps offset the bearish pressures of rising inventories and concerns about tariffs. China's data revealed that growth in the second quarter was slower than expected, but it was less than anticipated, partly due to frontloading in order to avoid U.S. Tariffs. This eased concerns about the world's biggest crude importer. Data also revealed that China's crude throughput in the month of June increased by 8.5% compared to a year ago, which indicates a stronger fuel demand. Some analysts, however, saw the price recovery as temporary. Priyanka Sahdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, explained that the stabilization of crude oil markets following two volatile sessions was largely due to a minor technical correction and not a significant change in fundamentals. Investors should be aware of inflation and interest rates in the United States, as Trump's push to increase tariffs may lead to inflation and dampen the fuel demand over the medium-term. Sachdeva pointed out that OPEC’s narrative remained optimistic. He cited the cartel’s monthly report, released on Tuesday. Forecast that the global economic outlook would improve in the second half of the year, which will boost the oil demand forecast. Brazil, China, and India exceed expectations, while the U.S., EU, and recovery from last year is added. Sachdeva said that the technicals might offer a short-term respite, but fundamentally there is a lack of momentum in the market. The crude complex is likely to continue its downward trend until there is clarity on global growth, policies, and demand, particularly in Asia. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Colleen howe)
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Gold gains a little as attention turns to US tariff talks
The gold price rose on Wednesday, as investors digested the data that showed an increase in U.S. Consumer Prices last month. They also awaited further clarity regarding President Donald Trump's Trade Policy. As of 0401 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.4% to $3,334.12 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.1% to $3,340.90. Brian Lan, Singapore's managing director of GoldSilver Central said that gold is currently consolidating, with a slight downside bias. This is due to the stronger dollar. "However many countries are still in negotiations with the U.S. over the tariffs." Many are seeking safe havens because there are many uncertainties on the market. Trump threatened on Saturday to impose a 30 percent tariff on imports coming from Mexico and the European Union, starting August 1. Trump, however, said that he would be open to further negotiation on Monday. The U.S. consumer price index increased by the highest amount in five months in June, mainly due to higher prices for certain goods. This suggests that tariffs are starting to impact inflation and could keep the Federal Reserve at bay until September. Trump stated that the Fed should lower interest rates immediately after receiving the data. Dallas Fed Bank President Lorie Lorie Logan stated that the U.S. Central Bank will likely need to keep rates at their current levels for a little while longer in order to maintain low inflation despite the upward pressure of the Trump Administration's tariffs. In a low interest rate environment, gold, which is often considered to be a safe investment during economic uncertainty, does well. The market will now be looking at the U.S. Producer Price Index due on Wednesday at 1230 GMT for further cues. The dollar and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields in the United States held near multiple-week highs, which helped to limit gold's gains. Silver spot gained 0.3%, to $37.82 an ounce. Palladium rose 0.4% and platinum 0.2%. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips, Subhranshu Sahu, and Brijesh Pate in Bengaluru).
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Mooreast Finds Geotechnical Partner for Floating Energy Solutions
Singapore-based mooring and anchoring specialist Mooreast Holdings has partnered with Norway-based GeoProvider to strengthen capabilities in offshore data analysis and enhance its value proposition to the floating offshore renewable energy market.Through their framework agreement, Mooreast will tap into GeoProvider’s extensive geotechnical and geophysical database to accelerate data analysis and support larger, more complicated projects.Both parties will also collaborate on offshore wind projects as the floating renewable market transitions towards the commercialization phase.SGX Catalist-listed Mooreast, a total mooring solutions specialist, has been offering geotechnical and geophysical studies, such as soil data analysis to determine project feasibility and engineering design for mooring configurations. The group is also Asia’s only ultra-high power anchor manufacturer.Headquartered in Stavanger, Norway, GeoProvider provides geophysical data and geotechnical services for global clients involved in offshore wind, energy exploration and carbon capture and storage. Its team of world-class specialists and cutting-edge technology offers consultancy, advisory, and engineering for subsurface projects.“The agreement with GeoProvider reflects our strategy to build strong partnerships that add value to our clients and increase our capability to take on larger and more complex projects. GeoProvider’s strong track record complements our core competencies as a mooring specialist, allowing us to better meet the demands of the global offshore market,” said Eirik Ellingsen, CEO of Mooreast.In line with these efforts, Mooreast also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Korea Ocean Engineering & Consultants (KOCECO) to promote joint business and technology collaboration in offshore mooring and seabed anchoring solutions.KOCECO, recognized by South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, brings extensive experience in submarine cable laying and underwater engineering services.The MoU lays the groundwork for future cooperation in the rapidly developing floating offshore wind market in North Asia, where Mooreast seeks to play a pivotal role in addressing local supply chain gaps in mooring systems.“The two agreements will significantly strengthen Mooreast’s global position and our commitment to our transformation to serve the renewable energy sector. Through these partnerships, we are now better equipped to deliver a comprehensive solution for the offshore sector,” added Ellingsen.
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Accelerator Chooses Six Companies for New York Wind Advances
NYU Tandon School of Engineering, in partnership with Equinor, National Offshore Wind R&D Consortium (NOWRDC) and New York City Economic Development Corporation (NYCEDC), announced its selection of the 2025 annual cohort of companies that will receive support to further develop their ideas and advance offshore wind’s potential in New York.Six companies were selected from a pool of 53 applicants based on the novelty and potential of their solutions. Among the focus areas was identifying innovations that can contribute to efficiencies in turbine maintenance and improved marine life monitoring.Launched in January 2023, the Offshore Wind Innovation Hub is led by Equinor in collaboration with Urban Future Lab at NYU Tandon, and NOWRDC The hub is also supported by the NYCEDC.The 2025 Offshore Wind Innovation Hub Accelerator Cohort:1. Anemo Robotics (Copenhagen, Denmark) — Camera technology to provide an autonomous underwater monitoring solution for marine biodiversity assessment.2. Kalypso Offshore Energy (Delaware, USA) — Offshore solution provider with a specialized modular subsea cable repair and maintenance kit for flexible and quick mobilization.3. MESPAC (Turin, Italy) — Intelligence platform delivering accurate, continuous, and spatially-refined metocean data powered by satellites and AI.4. Orpheus Ocean (Massachusetts, USA) — Lightweight and modular Autonomous Underwater Vehicle for the collection of seafloor data.5. Reblade (Aarhus, Denmark) — Drone-based robotics tools for automatically repairing edge erosion of wind turbine blades.6. Werover (London, UK) — Continuous, real-time monitoring of wind turbine blades using acoustic sensors and AI-powered analytics.The winners will take on a six-month mentoring and business development program residency, designed to prepare them for strategic partnerships with major offshore wind developers, suppliers and the wider offshore wind value chain.The program aims to enable innovators to overcome barriers to adoption and continue to successfully commercialize their solutions in New York and beyond.The 2024 cohort companies made great strides in business and product development, fundraising, hiring and piloting. Notable highlights include Triton Anchor’s $5.7M equity and grant fundraise, Claviate’s signed contract with Siemens Onshore to manage over 200 wind turbines, and Pliant Energy Systems' work on two pilot deployments in local New York City waters in collaboration with NYC Economic Development Corporation.The Offshore Wind Innovation Hub is based in Sunset Park, Brooklyn, with a mission to enable smaller companies to provide their technology to the offshore wind industry. Cohort companies will be individually paired with knowledgeable Equinor mentors and gain industry-specific guidance on technology development from NOWRDC. Cohort companies will also benefit from NYCEDC’s extensive involvement in piloting and innovation activities throughout the city, including the Pilots at BAT program.“This cohort comes in at a critical time in the US offshore wind industry — a time when projects are being built at scale and innovation has real opportunities to make an impact. The technologies being developed in this cohort are working to lower cost, improve US supply chain opportunities, and improve safety across offshore wind development and operational stages. We at the National Offshore Wind Research & Development Consortium are eager to support and accelerate this cohort’s industry deployment over the next year," said Lyndie Hice-Dunton, Executive Director at National Offshore Wind Research and Development Consortium.To meet the companies and learn more about their innovations, join the Offshore Wind Innovation Hub on September 4, 2025 in New York City, when it will host its yearly Wind-Win Startup Showdown event. Registration is open.
Oil prices fall on weak China demand and geopolitical uncertainties
The oil prices dropped on Tuesday as a result of uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and Russia-Ukraine talks. Meanwhile, new government data revealed a cautious outlook for China's economy, which is the world's largest crude importer. Brent futures fell 42 cents or 0.6% to $65.12 per barrel at 11:02 am EDT (1502 GMT), whereas U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) dropped 26 cents or 0.4% to $62.43.
Iran's
Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, said that U.S. demands for Tehran to stop enriching its uranium were "excessive" and "outrageous," and expressed doubts about whether negotiations on a new deal in nuclear energy will be successful.
According to U.S. Federal Energy data, Iran will be the third largest crude oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries group (OPEC) in 2024 after Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Alex Hodes, StoneX analyst, said that a deal between Iran, the U.S., and other countries would allow Iran's oil exports to increase by 300,000-400,000 barrels a day if sanctions are eased. StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said that the European Union and Britain did not wait for the U.S. before announcing new sanctions against Russia. This was a day after U.S. president Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but without a ceasefire promise in Ukraine.
Ukraine wants to know more
Group of Seven
The (G7) advanced economies will reduce their price caps on Russian oil shipped by sea to $30 per barrel. The current G7 price cap is imposed over
Russia's war on Ukraine
The price of a? is $60.
It does not appear likely that the Russia/Ukraine conflict will be resolved immediately. While it may lead to more Russian oil on the market in the future, this is uncertain and out of time as Russia still has its obligations to OPEC+, said Bjarne Shieldrop.
A peace agreement between the two countries to end their war
Russia
The Ukraine and Russia could enable Moscow to export even more oil. Russia is a part of the OPEC+ countries.
Other producers.
The second largest crude oil producer in the world was Russia.
According to U.S. Federal Energy Data, in 2024.
CHINESE DATA On Tuesday, at least seven Federal Reserve officials will speak.
Traders expect that the U.S. Central Bank will deliver at least two 25 basis-point rate cuts in 2025. The first is expected to be in September.
Interest rates are used by central banks such as the Fed to control price inflation. By lowering consumer borrowing costs, lower interest rates can boost economic growth and oil demand.
Analysts expect a decline in fuel demand in the world's largest oil importer. Data showing a deceleration in industrial output and retail sales has put more pressure on oil. Goldman Sachs, however, pointed to an increase in China trade late Monday. The analysis did not take into account a 90 day pause between the U.S. In Germany, Europe's largest economy, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has promised to take swift measures in order to boost investment in the face of global trade uncertainty.
OIL INVENTORIES On Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, the American Petroleum Institute (API), a trade group, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration will release data about U.S. crude oil inventories.
Analysts predict that energy companies will have removed about 1.4 millions barrels of crude oil from U.S. stocks during the week ending May 16.
This would be the third decrease in four weeks. The same week last season, there was an increase in barrels of 1.8 millions barrels. Over the past five-year period (2020-2024), the average decline has been 3.5 million barrels. (Reporting and editing by Scott DiSavino and Trixie Yap; Louise Heavens, Clarence Fernandez and Paul Simao).
(source: Reuters)