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Stocks surge in relief rally following Trump's pause on tariffs

On Thursday, global shares surged after U.S. president Donald Trump announced he would temporarily reduce the heavy duties he just imposed on several countries.

The sharp overnight rally of U.S. shares and the dollar has lost momentum as the trade war between China and the United States intensifies. Investors are also confused by the Trump administration’s reversal on tariff plans.

After a market crash that wiped trillions from global stocks, and sent U.S. Treasury Bonds and the dollar tumbling, Trump announced on Wednesday a 90-day suspension of many of his new duties in an unexpected reversal.

This pushed European Futures sharply higher in the Asian session. EUROSTOXX50 futures and DAX forwards each rose nearly 8%, while FTSE forwards gained 5.4%.

Nikkei, the Japanese stock exchange, also rose by more than 8%.

Wall Street took a break after an overnight rally that was accompanied by a soaring price, as investors struggled with the economic policies of the U.S. government.

The world's political and financial leaders are looking with horror and not amusement at an administration who prioritises signing an executive order to increase the water power in shower heads on the day the bond market crashes and investors doubt the long-term credibility of the administration after they have flipped-flopped their largest policy, tariffs," Martin Whetton said, Westpac's head of financial markets.

Nasdaq Futures dropped more than 1%, and S&P500 futures were down 0.8%.

In the Wednesday cash session, both indexes posted their largest daily percentage gains for more than a decade.

The dollar dropped 0.8% versus the yen, and 0.6% versus the Swiss franc. It failed to maintain its previous jump against these two safe-haven currencies.

Khoon Goh is the head of Asia Research at ANZ. He said: "I believe the initial move was simply massive short covering, and this gave the world a little breathing space. Except for China...because markets started to price the worst-case scenarios."

The markets are likely to figure out what to do next now that the dust is settled.

Trump's decision to reverse the tariffs on specific countries is not final. The White House announced that a 10% blanket duty will continue to be applied to almost all U.S. imported goods. This announcement does not seem to affect existing duties on steel, aluminium and autos.

He said he would also increase the tariffs on Chinese imports from 104% to 125%, which came into effect Wednesday.

China raised the additional duties on American goods to 84% on Wednesday and imposed restrictions against 18 U.S. firms, mostly in defense-related industries.

Investors, however, have a limited view of the latest escalation in Sino-U.S. Trade tensions. They are focusing on the 90-day window Trump granted to dozens countries.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 2.4%, while China's CSI300 blue chip index gained 1%.

Wong Kok Hoong is the head of Maybank's equity sales trading.

The China + 1 route is still intact. "As the tariffs on the rest of world are 10% for 90 days and companies/businesses will have the time/alternatives/time to adjust their supply chain routes."

The onshore yuan is still at its lowest level since December 2007, 7.3518 dollars.

The People's Bank of China set the midpoint, or the rate at which the yuan can trade within a 2% range, prior to the market opening. This is the lowest since September 11, 2023.

BONDS SELLOFF

The steep drop in bond prices this week showed signs of slowing down on Thursday.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate dropped to 4,2908% after reaching a high of 4.515% in the previous session. It also rose by 13 basis points.

Fears of fragility on the world's largest bond market were reignited by a violent U.S. Treasury sale in previous sessions. The "dash for money" of the COVID era was reminiscent.

Lawrence Gillum is the chief fixed income analyst at LPL Financial. He said that "sticky inflation, a patient Federal Reserve, potential foreign buyer boycotts and hedge fund deleveraging are all reasons for Treasury yields to continue moving higher."

Minutes of the Fed's March meeting were released on Wednesday. They showed that policymakers are not going to rush to cut interest rates because they believe higher tariffs will boost inflation. However, they also worry Trump's policy towards trade could have a negative impact on the economy.

The markets are now pricing just 80 basis points in rate reductions by December. This is down from over 100 bps earlier this week.

Investors worried about the escalating Sino-U.S. Trade War lowered oil prices elsewhere.

Spot gold continued to climb, and lastly rose 1.5% to $3,128,92 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)