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Sources say that the supply of Saudi crude oil to China will fall in April.
Trade sources reported on Thursday that Saudi Arabia's crude shipments to China, its largest customer, will drop to the lowest level for more than a full year in April. This is partly due to maintenance programs at Sinopec-owned Chinese refineries. Data shows that the OPEC producer, Saudi Arabia, allocated 34 million barrels to its Chinese clients in April, down from 41 millions barrels the previous month. China's drop in demand for Saudi crude oil is despite the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies agreeing to continue with their plan to increase production in April. Sinopec intends to close at least 700,000.00 barrels of crude processing capacity per day (bpd), at subsidiaries such as the Yangzi Jiujiang Gaoqiao Refineries from mid-March to May, based on data compiled based on trade and industry sources. Saudi Aramco, and Sinopec, did not respond immediately to requests for comment. The crude oil market in Asia is also stabilizing after U.S. sanctions against Russia and Iranian oil disrupted the trade in late 2024 or early 2025. Analysts and trade sources said that China's imports from the Russian Far East and Iranian crude oil will rebound in March, as tankers attracted by lucrative rewards, replaced vessels subject to U.S. sanctions. This month, Russian oil supplies have recovered to India, which is the third largest oil consumer in the world.
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Palm firms worried about low production but demand is weak.
Malaysian palm futures rose on Thursday, supported by lower production levels but capped by persistent concerns about demand from key import countries. At the close, the benchmark May palm oil contract on Bursa Derivatives Exchange rose 52 ringgit or 1.16% to 4,533 Ringgit ($1,022.10) per metric ton. The contract fell by 2.98% over the last three sessions. The palm oil market is resilient, despite the recent sell-offs due to uncertainty in global markets over tariffs. Production hasn't picked up since March and demand remains a concern, said Paramalingam Supramaniam of Selangor brokerage Pelindung Bestari. "Even if the production picks up in the second part of the year, there won't be any big jumps. It will likely be gradual." The Malaysian Meteorological Department also issued an advisory next week that heavy rains are expected, which could continue to disrupt production", Supramaniam explained. Dalian's palm oil contract, which is the most active contract, rose by 1.18%. The Chicago Board of Trade's (CBOT), soyoil price rose by 0.19%. As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oil market, it tracks the prices of competing edible oils. The oil prices remained largely unchanged on Thursday, after a sharp rise in the previous session due to a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. gasoil stocks. Markets weighed macroeconomic worries against strong near-term expectations. Palm oil is a better option as a biodiesel feedstock because crude oil futures are stronger. The palm ringgit's currency has weakened by 0.2% in relation to the dollar. This makes the commodity more affordable for buyers who hold foreign currencies. ($1 = 4.4350 ringgit)
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IEA predicts a global oil surplus in 2025, as demand falls.
The International Energy Agency reported in its monthly report on the oil market that global oil supply may exceed demand this year by 600,000 barrels a day. This follows a downward revision of its demand growth forecast for 2025. The Paris-based agency stated that the surplus could increase by 400,000 bpd if OPEC+ continues to unwind its output cuts and fails in reining in overproduction against quotas. Calculations based on IEA figures show that the IEA’s February oil report suggested a slightly smaller surplus of about 500,000 bpd. The IEA has revised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 70,000 bpd. This growth is largely driven by Asia, and specifically China's petrochemical sector. After the publication of the report, oil prices fell. Brent oil futures were trading at $70.85 as of 0926 GMT compared to $71.01 when the report was released. The data shows the challenge that OPEC+ producers face in balancing this year's oil market, given the growing trade tensions around the world and the robust growth of supply. The IEA stated that "the macroeconomic conditions which underpin our oil consumption projections deteriorated in the last month as trade tensions increased between the U.S.A. and other countries." This led the IEA to lower its estimates of demand growth for the fourth quarter 2024 and first quarter this year. The IEA predicts that global oil supply will double in 2025 compared to 2024, reaching 1.5 million bpd if OPEC+ continues to cut production after the planned unwinding of April. The report said that OPEC's April oil cut from Saudi Arabia and Algeria may only have added around 40,000 bpd to the market, as continued overproduction by other member countries leaves no room for further opening of taps. The global oil supply has already increased, even though the actual increase in supply from the gradual unwinding OPEC+ production cutbacks in April is likely to be less than the nominal increase of 138,000 bpd.
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Musk's layoffs reduce workforce required to realize Trump's energy dominance plan
According to state officials and representatives of agencies, the Trump administration's mass firings have caused a slowdown in government approvals for new energy projects, which could be a setback for President Donald Trump's "drill baby, drill" agenda. This is one of the unintended effects of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency's mass firings, which were intended to cut wasteful spending. However, current and former officials claim that this runs counter to Trump’s pledge to increase production of oil and gas as well as power generation and electrical transmission. This strategy was partly outlined in a series executive orders signed by President Trump to open up vast new areas for drilling off the coast of Alaska. Since mid-February, cuts have affected employees in agencies that are crucial to the process of issuing permits for new federal or tribal energy production. These include the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. Harrison Fields, spokesperson for the White House, said that "streamlining organization charts to improve government efficiency will not affect President Obama's Drill Baby Drill initiative, and hyperventilating over cutting fraud, waste and abuse is irresponsible." Reporting showed that permitting has slowed down in the nation's most productive oil and gas producing states like New Mexico and Alaska as well as Native American tribes who rely on fossil-fuel extraction to fund public services such as schools. Federal lands and waters are responsible for almost a quarter (25%) of the total U.S. output of oil and provide public revenue through production royalties. However, it's not clear to what extent the job cuts have affected new production. According to the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. will produce an average of 13,23 million barrels a day (bpd). "I don’t understand these wide cuts," said Mike Celata who was BOEM's Gulf of Mexico regional director for seven years. This included during Trump's initial term. "You're essentially talking about an organization that has brought billions in revenue to the Treasury." Celata said that the process of rigorous environmental review is crucial to protect government oil and natural gas auctions, and drilling programs against litigation which can derail plans by fuel producers. In recent years, environmental groups' lawsuits have caused many energy projects to be delayed or cancelled. He said, "You have to follow this process." Loss of people is a serious problem. The 'proper staffing' of agencies is a must Over 20,000 federal workers have been estimated to have lost jobs, with almost all being probationary employees who have worked in their current role for less than one year. Another 75,000 of the 2.3 millions federal civil servants have accepted a buyout. In the next few weeks, more cuts are expected. Over 2,000 employees are affected, including those in the Interior Department which oversees the Bureau of Land Management and Bureau of Indian Affairs. According to the National Treasury Employees Union, who represents BLM employees, at least 250 employees of the Bureau of Land Management have lost their job. The Bureau of Land Management oversees energy production and mineral production over 245 million acres. A spokesperson for the Interior Department said that they did not expect any negative impacts. By streamlining our operations, we strengthen our ability to serve public and make government more efficient and accountable. The American Exploration & Production Council, a trade group that represents independent U.S. producers of energy, declined to comment about the job cuts. However they said it is crucial that permits offices are adequately staffed. Wendy Kirchoff is AXPC's senior vice president for policy. She said that maintaining key personnel was essential to unleashing American energy dominance. This week, the CERAWeek conference on energy in Houston echoed the need for staffing to ensure a smooth permitting process. Matt Schatzman is the CEO of NextDecade LNG, whose projects are dependent on approvals by the Department of Energy, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. He said he supported cutting wasteful federal expenditures, but warned against indiscriminate cuts to job positions in the permitting agencies. We need to ensure that these agencies have the right staffing. "I cannot stress this enough," he said. "WE CAN'T ALLOW PROJECTS" The United States was already dealing with an increasing backlog of drilling permits. According to a budget document from the Interior Department published in March 2024, pending permits at BLM increased from 2,552 applications in 2017 to 5,500 in 2025. Both political parties have called for reforms in the permitting process because of the massive queues that exist for energy infrastructure projects such as transmission lines, critical minerals mining and transmission lines. The Biden administration hired more staff to help with the permitting backlog using money from the Inflation Reduction Act, a bipartisan infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act. Laura Daniel-Davis was the former acting deputy Secretary of Interior under Biden. She said, "We really pushed to follow Congress' directions and staff up for energy-related permits." Oil producing state officials say that the job cuts at DOGE are slowing down permitting. Alaskan Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski wrote in a recent Facebook post that "we can't achieve our potential for responsible mineral and energy development if we don't have the ability to permit projects." She added that 60% of Alaska was federal land. Murkowski's spokesperson Joe Plesha said that the disruption of workers is affecting projects waiting for permits, but refused to provide specifics. The American Federation of Government Employees (AFE), a union representing federal employees, reported that nearly 1,300 federal probationary employees may have been terminated in Alaska, including 300 at the Interior Department - the parent agency of BLM, BOEM, and BLM. According to a letter from the state's Congressional delegation, the BLM offices in New Mexico, which manage drilling permits for the state portion of the Permian Basin – the primary driver of record U.S. production of oil and gas – have also been affected. More than a third of New Mexico's general fund comes from revenue generated by drilling on federal lands. New Mexico Dem. "Cutting the BLM workforce could put at risk its efforts in managing our public land, including their role to safely and responsibly manage oil and gas production", said New Mexico Dem. Senator Ben Ray Lujan. According to Lauren Leib of the National Treasury Employees Union, who represents New Mexico BLM workers, permitting and preparation for new leasing sales has already slowed. After layoffs and lease sales, she said, the agency would struggle to hire staff to fulfill its mandate, which includes processing applications for drilling permits, carrying out lease sales, and ensuring environmental protection. She said that in New Mexico, a large part of the economy is dependent on oil and natural gas production. A slowdown has a ripple affect on local economies. Tribal lands also affected The Osage Minerals Council which oversees mineral affairs of Oklahoma's oil producing Osage Tribe said DOGE's plans to close Bureau of Indian Affairs Osage Agency Offices and terminate their administrator would threaten to put its oil and natural gas permits to a halt. According to BIA data, Osage lands could hold between 1.5 and 13 billion barrels in crude oil reserves. Production is expected to be around 1,000 barrels a day by 2020. The council stated in a recent statement that it would insist the Secretary of Interior explain to them how the closing of our Agency and displacing BIA staff will improve oil and natural gas permits. (Reporting and editing by Richard Valdmanis, Anna Driver and Georgina McCartney. Additional reporting by Valerie Volcovici.
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Charts show the big Trump-driven market drops, bumps and peaks
Here are some of the major financial market movements prompted by President Donald Trump's actions in the last few weeks, from his re-ignition a global war of trade to his signal that Europe cannot take the U.S. military support for granted. 1 $5 TRILLON WIPOUT The parts of the market which have not been beaten around are easier to name than the ones that have. The numbers are huge. The numbers are staggering. The King Dollar has dropped a few pegs amid fears that a global war of trade combined with the mass firing of government employees will finally slow down the U.S. economic growth. The Bank of Japan has increased interest rates and Europe's plans to spend massive amounts on defence have lit their own fires. Larry Summers, Bill Clinton's Treasury secretary, posted on X that "we've seen a significant change in perception over the past two months" since Trump's inauguration. He added that election night expectations for a booming economy and U.S. 'exceptionalism' under Trump are now gone. Brent crude oil is down 2% this month and almost 5% year to date, which indicates that commodity traders are also preparing for a weaker global economy. FALL STREET Wall Street would have had its worst year ever if it weren't for COVID-19, and the huge spike in inflation and rates of interest it caused in 2022. The shares of the Magnificent Seven, which includes Alphabet (Alphabet), Apple, Meta (Microsoft), Nvidia, Tesla, Meta and Apple have all fallen in the last month. Most are down by 10-15%. 3/ TESLA PROBLEMS Tesla shares were hit even harder this week, with a 30% drop in a month. They also saw their largest one-day decline in the past four and a half years. Recent protests by activists called 'Tesla Takedowns' have been staged to express anger at Musk's role for the massive cuts made to federal employees under Trump's orders and the cancellation of contracts funding humanitarian programs in the world. Musk, the richest man in the world, leads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) of the Trump administration. Trump, who was standing next to Musk, wearing a "Make America Great again" baseball cap, said, "They are harming a wonderful American company." 4/ BUNDS GROW WILD Germany's response to Trump's signal that Europe must be able defend itself and no longer depend on U.S. power was an historic plan. It set aside self-imposed limits to debt and created a 500 billion euro fund for defence and infrastructure. This was the largest rise in Germany's "Bund" yield, which is what Berlin pays for borrowing on the bond market since 1990. Economists predict that it will cause a dramatic increase in Germany's relatively low debt levels, but will also help to lift the economy out of its rut. Gilles Moec, chief economist at AXA, said that the package was a game changer. 5/ MORE MEGA THAN MAGA The massive increase in share prices for European weaponmakers has been a direct result of the tectonic shift in defence spending. European stocks have performed better than U.S. counterparts by around 15%. Chinese stocks are also soaring after DeepSeek revealed that China's tech firms weren't as far back in the AI race than had been assumed. Beijing has also provided a steady stream of stimulus to its tariff-hit economic system. 6/BITCOIN BASHED Bitcoin fell after Trump's much-promised decision to create a "strategic reserves" of cryptocurrencies disappointed enthusiasts. The government will not be purchasing new tokens but instead stockpiling the bitcoins and other crypto currencies it already owns. Bitcoin fell to $76,666 in this week, after reaching a high of $109 071 in January. 7/ VOLATILE TIMES Trade war salvos, and geopolitical wrecking ball have shook up a number of important market volatility gauges. The VIX – which measures the shakiness in the S&P 500 – is almost a third way to its pandemic high. The Canadian dollar has seen a surge in volatility, as it is at the forefront of the trade war with the United States and Trump has called Canada the U.S. 51st state. The 'MOVE’ debt market volatility index has increased thanks to an increase in German bond yields, and a sharp drop in U.S. Treasury rates. "Ambiguity created by U.S. tariff policy clearly impacts the domestic U.S. Economy, but will have a greater impact on the global economic." Guy Miller, chief economist and market strategist at Zurich, said.
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European truck shares drop on U.S. reversal of electric vehicle rules
The shares of European truck manufacturers fell Thursday after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced that it would begin efforts to reverse Biden's administration's vehicle emission rules. Analysts say that trucking fleet companies had expected to "pre-buy", trucks before the new rules came into effect, which would have driven up demand. This is unlikely to happen now. Pal Skirta, an analyst at Metzler, said that the market is likely to assume the tighter regulations are going to be reversed. This means there's no expectation of a surge in pre-purchases for the second half 2025-2026. Skirta stated that this was the primary reason for Thursday's fall in share prices. Daimler Truck was the worst hit, down 7% by 0921 GMT. The EPA also said that it will be reviewing a regulation for 2022, which aims to dramatically reduce smog and soot emissions from heavy duty trucks. They claim the rule increases truck prices. Daimler's most important market is the United States. The company has made significant investments in emission-free drives systems to meet climate protection goals, and regulations. Volvo and Traton in Sweden are also down about 3%.
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Workers sign petition to collective bargaining at Rio Tinto’s Pilbara Mine
Western Mine Workers Alliance in Australia (WMWA), said that on Thursday, more than 400 employees at Rio Tinto’s Paraburdoo Iron Ore Mine in Pilbara Region had signed a petition supporting collective bargaining. The alliance launched a petition to begin bargaining in the mine for a first collective agreement after more than 20 years. The company's website stated that the Paraburdoo Mine is part of Rio Tinto's Western Australian operations. This operation employs approximately 16,000 people and will ship 328,6 million tonnes by 2024. The WMWA is formed by the Australian Workers' Union and Mining and Energy Union. MEU said that the agreement would bring an annual increase in pay, as well as a reduction of living costs, among other things. In a Facebook posting, the alliance stated that it would make a formal request to Australia's industrial tribunal Fair Work Commission to issue an order requiring Rio to engage in collective bargaining with its mine workers. Rio Tinto's spokesperson stated in an email response that their current approach is helping to drive productivity and wage growth. This model has created jobs, wage growth that is strong and sustainable, and royalties for the Australian economy.
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Gold gains, but stocks fall as tariffs wipeout inflation relief
Investors turned their focus back to the escalating situation in Syria, and European stocks and U.S. Futures fell on Thursday. Global trade war After a modest rally Wednesday, mainly due to softer than expected U.S. inflation figures. Gold climbed within $10 of its all-time high, and the safe haven yen also ticked higher. After a rise of 0.81% Wednesday, the pan-European STOXX 600 Index dipped a little in early trading. Germany's DAX fell 0.62%. Futures showed a lower opening for Wall Street, with S&P futures down 0.54% and Nasdaq forwards down 0.78%. In Asia, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell by 0.58% while Japan's Nikkei lost gains as high as 1.4%. The Nikkei closed last trades 0.1% lower. In recent weeks, global stocks, led by U.S. equity, have fallen as President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which are a stop-start policy, have created uncertainty and raised concerns about growth for investors and companies. But beaten-down U.S. technology shares led to a rebound on Wall Street Wednesday, after data showed that U.S. consumer price growth was at its slowest rate since October last month. Inflation figures were closely monitored following recent economic data that showed a softer tone, but they did not reflect the full impact of Trump's tariff campaign. Investors are keeping an eye on the U.S. Producer Price Data due later today. Mohit Kumar is the chief European economist for Jefferies. He said that Trump tariffs, and concerns about U.S. economic growth are still driving markets. He said that tariffs create uncertainty, which can be detrimental to investment and outlooks for companies involved in international trade. "Our view is that tariffs do not represent an inflation story, but rather a story of growth." Trump's increased duties on all U.S. imports of steel and aluminum took effect on Tuesday, intensifying a campaign aimed at reordering global trade to the U.S.'s advantage and prompting swift retaliation by Canada and Europe. Gold rose for the third session in a row to $2,947. This is close to the record set on February 24, which was $2,956.15. S&P 500 in the U.S. is down nearly 5% this year. The European stock market has done better thanks to government plans for large defence spending and a possible Ukraine peace agreement. They are currently up 6.6%, despite recent losses. Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said: "This... still strikes as a market which cannot hold on to any gains for the moment. This should be a huge old red flag for potential dip buyers." The yen gained 0.3%, to 147.83 dollars per yen. This was boosted by bets made on Bank of Japan interest rate hikes as well as investors looking for a safe-haven. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0879 after hitting a five-month peak of $1.0947 on Tuesday. The German Lower House of Parliament will be dissolved Hold a special session On Thursday, the European Parliament will debate a fund of 500 billion euros ($543,85 billion) for infrastructure as well as sweeping changes in borrowing rules. The 10-year Treasury yield remained flat at 4,318%, after increasing in the previous two sessions. Crude oil rose after a rally on Wednesday. Brent futures increased 0.3% to $71.15 per barrel. ($1 = 0.9194 euros)
Gold gains, but stocks fall as tariffs slash inflation relief
Stocks fell in Asia on Friday, reversing gains made earlier, as concerns about the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policies surpassed early optimism based on a tepid U.S. inflation reading.
The safe-haven Japanese yen rose, and U.S. Treasury yields fell. Crude oil prices fell as well.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.4% at 0545 GMT and mainland Chinese blue-chips dropped 0.7%.
The Nikkei index of Japan gave up gains as high as 1.4% in order to trade flat last week, while Taiwanese stocks dropped by 1.1% and South Korea’s KOSPI fell by 0.4%.
The Australian stock benchmark fell 0.5%, and now stands 10% below its February 14 record high. This confirms a technical adjustment.
Futures indicate that Wall Street will open lower at reopening, with S&P futures down 0.5% and Nasdaq forwards down 0.8%.
The price of the STOXX50 futures for Europe fell by 0.5%.
The Wall Street rebound was led by the resurgent U.S. technology shares on Wednesday, after new data revealed that U.S. consumer price growth had slowed to its lowest rate since October of last month.
Inflation figures were closely monitored following recent economic data that showed a softer tone, but they did not reflect the full impact of Trump's tariff campaign.
Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said: "This market is still one that I feel cannot hold gains for the time being. This should be a huge old red flag to any potential dip-buyers out there."
"Alongside my bearish equity tilt, I still favor a bullish view on bonds, especially as risks are increasingly tilting to the downside for U.S. economy."
Trump's increased duties on all U.S. imports of steel and aluminum took effect on Tuesday, intensifying a campaign to reorder the global trade in favor of the U.S.
In a note to clients, TD Securities analysts stated that "uncertainty continues in the air" as the outlook for inflationary consumer prices is still clouded by the trade policy developments.
The impact of the recent tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican products and the expectation of future announcements suggests that the worst is still to come.
Gold prices rose by 0.5%, reaching $2,947.06, close to the previous record set on February 24, at $2,956.15.
Treasury yields in the United States declined. The two-year yield fell by 2 basis points, to 3.974%. It had risen as high as 4,005% on Wednesday.
The yen increased by 0.4%, to 147.70 dollars per yen.
The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0879.
Crude oil eased off after Wednesday's rally. Brent futures fell 0.3% to $70.77 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 0.4% to $67.34 a barrel. Kevin Buckland reported; Jacqueline Wong, Sam Holmes and Sam Holmes edited.
(source: Reuters)