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China's imports of iron ore, coal and other minerals fell in January but prices varied: Russell

China's iron ore imports and seaborne coal arrivals are expected to be soft in the first quarter, with January arrivals falling to multi-month lows.

The price trend for two of the most important bulk commodities is divergent. Iron ore has held steady, while thermal coal has fallen to its lowest level in almost four years.

According to Kpler, commodity analysts, China is the largest iron ore purchaser in the world. It will import 99.5 millions metric tons of this key raw material for steel in January.

This would be a drop from the official December customs figure, which was 112.5 million tonnes. It would also be the lowest total monthly since June's 97.5 million.

Due to the Lunar New Year holiday, which fell this year at the end and beginning of January, there is caution in regards to iron ore imports for the month of January. Some cargoes may be pushed into February due to the Lunar New Year holidays, which this year fell at the end of January and early in February.

Kpler estimates that China imported 27.97 millions tons of coal in January. This is a 26% decrease from the 37.59 million tons imported in December.

The data shows that coal imports in December totaled 52,35 million tonnes. This includes arrivals by land from countries like Mongolia and Russia.

In the past, coal imports have tended to decline in January and in February after the peak winter demand has passed. However, the drop in January from December this year is much greater than the 9% in January 2024 or the 10.9% in January 2023.

China, which is the largest coal producer, consumer, and importer in the world, may require less coal from the seaborne markets as the domestic supply increases.

According to data released by the government on January 17, December coal production reached 439 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2% over the same period a year ago. The annual output increased 1.3%, reaching 4.76 billion tones.

SteelHome, a consulting firm that assesses thermal coal in Qinhuangdao, has assessed the impact of this robust increase on domestic coal prices. The price of a ton was 765 yuan (106 dollars) this week. This is down 12.6% from its 2024 peak of 875 yuan, reached in September 2024, and it's the lowest since April 2021.

As a result, the price of coal in China is falling. This has spilled over to other countries' exports.

Argus, a commodity reporting agency, assessed Indonesian coal at $48.76 per ton during the week ending Jan. 24. This was the lowest price since April 2021. It also represented a 16.2% drop from the peak of $58.17 reached in March 2024.

Australian coal with a 5,500-kcal/kg energy content, which is popular among Chinese buyers, cost $80.12 per ton during the week ending Jan. 24. This was down 17.1% compared to its March 2024 peak of $96.66 and the lowest price since July 2021.

RESILIENT IRON ORE

Iron ore prices follow a different trend. While coal prices reflect China's domestic dynamics, they are slightly off.

The price of futures on the Singapore Exchange is stable despite the expected decline in imports in January.

The contract closed at $101.55 per ton on January 6, up 4.4% since the low of $97.31. Since October, the price has remained above $100 per ton. The exception was a five-day trading period earlier in January.

Iron ore prices reflect that China's imports of iron ore have remained stable in recent months, despite a small drop in steel production in 2024.

Iron ore, unlike coal, may be supported by sentiment. Some market participants are optimistic that Beijing’s stimulus efforts in 2025 will be rewarded with a stabilised property sector, and an increase in consumer demand for manufactured products.

Iron ore prices have also shrugged off so far the threat of a global trade war from the Trump administration, which has stated that it may impose tariffs up to 60% on Chinese imports.

These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)