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MORNING quote EUROPE-Trump changes tune on strong dollar

A look at the day ahead in European and international markets from Wayne Cole

The dollar is making the early running on Monday, retaking a few of recently's losses helped in part by rare words of assistance from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

While 100% tariffs look rather unlikely, the latest remarks marked a modification from the Trump of old who honestly touted a weaker dollar as a way to repair the U.S. trade deficit. The market took them as recommending he will not give pressure on the currency.

The Chinese yuan definitely took it terribly, touching a. three-month low on the dollar.

The dollar is also up around 0.5% on the yen and above. 150.50 yen per dollar, eclipsing recently more hawkish. musings from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda who stated the next. interest rate walkings were nearing in the sense that financial. information are on track.

Ueda's remarks, combined with information showing Japanese. business financial investment rising at a healthy 8.1% clip in the third. quarter, motivated markets to price in a 65% chance the BOJ. will hike by a quarter point to 0.5% at its policy conference on. Dec. 18-19.

That is essentially the very same market possibility that the. Federal Reserve will cut rates by a quarter point at its meeting. on Dec. 18, though much will depend upon what today's ISM. studies and payrolls data reveal.

U.S. jobs are anticipated to have rebounded by 195,000 in. November, though the forecast range of 160,000 to 270,000. suggests the threat of an upside surprise. JPMorgan, for example,. is tipping 270,000, with completion of cyclones and strikes. adding nearly 90,000 to payrolls. Yet, they also anticipate the. unemployed rate to tick approximately 4.2% and nearer the Fed dot plot of. 4.4%, most likely leaving the door open to a December easing.

For the ECB, a cut of 25 bps on Dec. 12 is seen as the. absolute minimum and the marketplace suggests a 21% chance of 50 bps. Financiers have actually priced 1.6% as the floor for ECB rates, compared. with 3.75% for the Fed.

French bonds will require all the rate love they can get after. France's far best National Rally raised the threat of a no. self-confidence vote this week that could fall Prime Minister. Michel Barnier. Whatever takes place, budget plan repair work seems unlikely. and the deficit could head to 6% of GDP, maybe making it more. pricey for France to obtain than for Greece.

Oh, and it's worth keeping an eye on the Russian rouble. after its near collapse last week as the authorities seemed to. condone its decline, possibly figuring a decline was worth it. to fatten their export earnings from products priced in. dollars.

Key advancements that might influence markets on Monday:

- UK real estate rates for Nov; EU unemployment; euro zone,. German, UK and French PMIs

- Looks by ECB President Christine Lagarde, BoE. Director Lee Foulger, Riksbank First Deputy Governor Anna. Breman, Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Fed NY President. John Williams

(source: Reuters)