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India's imports of iron ore will reach a 7-year high by 2025-2026
Analysts and industry executives say that India's imports, which are a vital?raw material for steelmaking?, will reach a seven-year high in the fiscal year ending March 31. This is due to a shortage of ore of high quality and JSW Steel's demand. Analysts and trade officials have said that the total imports will likely reach 12 to 14 million tons in 2025-2026, which is more than double what they were a year ago. JSW Steel, India's biggest ?steelmaker by capacity, was a key driver of iron ore imports for its mills in the western state of Maharashtra ?and the southern state of Karnataka, said Lalit Ladkat, a senior analyst at London-basedconsultancy CRU. BHP's Jimblebar?Fine iron ore, which was previously banned in China for sale, is being shipped to India as part of a rare, but lucrative, sale. Last week, it was reported that BHP's Jimblebar?Fine iron ore is heading to India in a rare sale. The product had been banned for sale in China. Ladkat stated that the bulk of India's imports of iron ore in fiscal year came from Brazil and Oman. Together, they accounted for?about 70% of total shipments. According to commodities consultancy BigMint, India's iron ore production, which is the second largest crude steel producer in the world, will reach 305 millions metric tons in fiscal 2025-26, an increase from 289 million metric tones a year ago. Ladkat stated that iron ore exports are expected to increase by 26% to 29 million metric tonnes, with 85% of the shipments heading to China. Mining officials in India said that India exports mainly low-grade iron ore, which is not generally used by the steel mills of India. Sumit Jhunjhunwala is vice president of ICRA Ratings. He said that India's iron-ore production will increase in the fiscal year beginning April 1 as mines ramp up production. However, imports could continue, depending on grade requirements, plant-level supply dynamics and other factors. IRON ORE ?PELLET IMPORTS SET TO DROP Analysts say that India's imports of iron ore pellets - value-added or processed products - from Iran, which it has imported since last year at a lower price, are likely to decline because of the conflict in the Middle East. BigMint reported that "Indian Pellet Imports from Iran could decline due to increased geopolitical tensions, and the associated trade uncertainties. Meanwhile, domestic pellet supply is likely limit import demand." India imported 1,88 million metric tonnes of iron ore in the period April-February, a sixfold increase from a previous year. (Reporting and editing by Mayank Bhahardwaj, Thomas Derpinghaus).
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South Africa's gold production remains in the shallows despite a price surge
Industry executives said that record gold prices have pushed South Africa's mining industry, which is struggling to survive, to look for new methods to extract the metal. These alternatives to the old and expensive deep-shaft mining are needed. They're unlikely, however, to be able to increase production in the near future to lift the country's stubbornly low output. This is despite the fact that the country was for over a century the largest gold producer in the world. Statist South Africa reports that South Africa's gold mining has declined by nearly 90% since the 1990s. The expenditure on mineral exploration will drop to $43 million from $900 millions in 2006 in 2025. The gold production of the country has dropped to 90 metric tons annually, from a peak of 1,000 tonnes in 1970. This is due to dwindling reserves, unrest among the workers, and the difficult geological conditions at the world's deepest mines. The gold price has risen 60% since 2025, reaching a series record highs due to trade tensions, central banks buying, and the expectation of U.S. interest rate cuts. South African miners are still hesitant to invest in new production despite rising gold prices. GOLD PRODUCERS PREFER SHALLOWER OR SURFACE PROJECTS Sibanye Stillwater, a diversified miner, prioritises shallow projects with high margins to increase its gold production as prices rise. Burnstone is the focus of its plans, which it describes as a "low-cost and long-life" project. Richard Stewart, the CEO, said that it is also looking for growth opportunities through its 50% owned DRDGold which recovers gold waste dumps. Beyers Nel, CEO of Harmony Gold South Africa, told analysts that the company is hoping to recover up to 5.7 million ounces by waste retreatment. Harmony is unlikely to see underground mining expand. Finance Director Boipelo lekubo said that due to the time required to develop an area, it is possible you won't start mining there for two or three years. "Who knows where the gold price will then be?" NEW MINE IN ICONIC GOLD BASIN West Wits Mining opened South Africa's?first new underground mine in 15 years, last October. The Qala Shallows Mine taps into Witwatersrand Basin, which is reputedly the source of about half the gold ever produced in the world. It is also mechanised, reducing labour costs. The mine is mechanised to reduce labour costs and it uses hydropower instead of more expensive compressed air for ore extraction. Rudi Deysel, CEO of West Wits Mining, said during a mine tour that "we actually have a very, a very economic project" given the current gold price. The company envisions a future phase where it will increase its annual production to 200,000 ounces. South African production is not expected to change much in the short-term. The Minerals Council of South Africa predicts that gold production will remain around 90 metric tonnes next year, not much different from the levels it has been bumping along at for the past five years. (Reporting and editing by Olivia KumwendaMtambo, Jan Harvey and Nelson Banya)
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Sources say that BPCL has appointed Manoj Heda as the head of its Singapore business unit.
Sources from Bharat Oil Corp. said that Manoj Heda, the international trade head of Bharat, had been appointed to lead its Singapore-based trading division. Bharat Oil Global Energy Services (Singapore), Pte, is expected to begin operations in April, with a staff size of four, according to the company. Manish Parikh, who will be "the chief financial officer," was also named. Amit Bilolikar, Vaibhav gandhi and others will also join as crude traders. BPCL didn't immediately respond to a'request for comments. Sources declined to be identified because the appointments had not yet been made public. Heda joined BPCL as a senior finance manager in 1999. According to his LinkedIn profile, he has been the executive director of international trade and risk since May 2023. Sanjay Khanna, Chairman of BPCL in January, said that the new entity would help identify 'opportunities for BPCL to buy crude and expand its presence in the 'trading of liquefied gas -and refined fuels. BPCL has a total of 706,000 barrels of 'crude oil capacity per day across its three refineries. It is now looking to build a new refinery within the southern Indian state Andhra Pradesh. (Reporting and editing by Edwina G. Gibbs; Nidhi V. Verma)
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RPT-Russia delays changes to fiscal fund following Iran war energy prices surge
Increased oil revenue from the Iran War benefits Russia Discussions on budget cuts continue * Putin calls for a balanced decision on the use of windfall By Darya Korsunskaya and Elena Fabrichnaya MOSCOW, 23 March - The spike in oil prices triggered by the Iran War has allowed the Russian Government to delay a plan to increase long-term fiscal reserve, according to three sources familiar with the discussion. This will relieve the pressure on short-term financial resources. The Russian economy is one of few in the world to benefit from U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, even though it has been struggling with the costs of military action in Ukraine, international sanctions and other factors. Oil prices have increased to over $100 per barrel. They were around $70 before the start of the war at the end February. Gas prices are also up. According to calculations, based on the price of oil at $75 per barrel, Russian budget oil revenues will grow 70% from March to April, reaching 0.9 trillion Russian roubles. This is the highest level monthly since October 2025. The CUT-OFF Price Determines How Much Revenue Flows into Fund Russia had announced its intention to lower the "cut-off price" of oil before the war in Iran began. The Russian government also claimed that budget cuts were being discussed. The National Wealth Fund receives any revenue above the current cut-off of $59 to be used as a fiscal reserve. Sources who were not authorized to speak in public said that the government will now delay changing the price cut-off. Sources said it is more likely that the change will happen in 2027, since the budget law would need to be amended. CHANGES WERE EXPECTED VERY QUICKLY On February 25, just three days before war broke out, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that changes allowing a lower price cut-off would be announced in two weeks. However, on Monday, President Vladimir Putin called for a balanced approach to the use of revenues from higher oil prices. Siluanov, after his meeting with Putin Monday, said that the government is considering measures to reduce the budget's vulnerability to oil price fluctuations on the medium-term. The Russian budget is based on an average annual oil price equal to the cutoff price. The reserve fund will cover the deficit if the average monthly price of oil is lower than this. If the average price of oil is higher than the cut-off, the surplus will be deposited in the reserve fund. Senior government officials told two other sources that the price cut will be the same and the need to reduce spending was also questioned. NEW SET OF MACRO-FORECASTS In April, the government will release a set of new macro-forecasts, which include an estimate of the average oil price for this year. This information will be used to guide?the budget. The reserve fund, which is now mainly yuan in currency, has a significant impact on the?Russian foreign exchange market. The government's decision in March to stop forex sales while it deliberated on the new cutoff price caused a 6% drop in the exchange rate of the rouble against the dollar. Elvira Nabibullina, the Governor of the Russian Central Bank, stated that it is too early to assess the impact of the higher oil prices on Russia's economy. Nabiullina, along with her first deputy Alexei Zabotkin, said that the budget rule is the best way for Russia to protect itself from external shocks. A person familiar with ongoing discussions stated that, even if Iran's crisis ends suddenly, many Russian policymakers still expect oil prices to remain high for a while. (Writing by Gleb Brynski; Editing by Barbara Lewis).
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Japanese stocks pare gains due to doubts about Trump's Iran remarks
Japanese shares suffered a loss on Tuesday as investors were not convinced that U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks about delaying the targeting of Iran's energy infrastructure would lead to a breakthrough in the 'Middle East conflict. The Nikkei closed at 52,252.28 up 1.4% after rising by as much as 2,3% in the previous session. The Topix, which is a broader index, rose 2.1% to 3,559.67. It had previously risen as high as 2.6%. Trump postponed his threat to bomb Iran’s power grid because of "productive talks" he had with unidentified Iranian officials. Iran denied it had been in talks with the U.S. and pushed oil prices higher. It also launched a number of missiles towards Israel. Tomoichiro Kubota is a senior analyst at Matsui Securities. He said, "Few seem to think that the remarks can help calm down the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Many see them as nothing more than a temporary delaying tactic." When the market is rising, people are quick to profit. Since its close on February 27, before the outbreak of war, the Nikkei has fallen by about 11%. The Nikkei Index saw 209 advancing stocks on Tuesday, compared to 16 declining ones. Sumitomo Pharma, Japan's largest oil refiner, rose 7.4%. Eneos (Japan's largest oil refinery) and other energy-related stocks also gained, with Eneos rising 4.1%. Tokio Holdings closed?17.1% higher at its 'daily limit' of 6,857yen, after Berkshire Hathaway announced it would buy a 2.49% share in the Japanese insurer as part of an upcoming strategic partnership. Nintendo was the Nikkei index's largest percentage dropper, falling 4.8% after Bloomberg reported a?game maker would cut?Switch 2 production by more than 30% due to poor U.S. sales. Japan Steel Works lost 3.3% and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries fell 1.9%. Reporting by Satoshi Sugyama, Editing by Sherry J. Phillips, Mrigank. Dhaniwala, and Rashmi. Aich
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Semafor reports that US will continue Iran strike, but only on energy sites.
Semafor, citing an official from the United States, reported that the United States will 'continue their strikes' on Iran. The pause only applies to attacks against Tehran energy sites. This was during what President Donald Trump described as a "productive" meeting with unidentified Iranian officials. Trump had earlier on Monday postponed by five days a plan of hitting Iran's energy infrastructure and power plants. Later, Iran denied having engaged in negotiations with the United States. A U.S. official said to Semafor that the five-day ceasefire only applies to their energy sites. It is not in the navy, ballistic missiles or the defense industry base. He told the news agency that "the initial initiatives (of Operation) Epic Fury" will continue. Could not verify the report immediately. The White House and the U.S. The State Department, the 'Pentagon' and the White House did not respond immediately to an emailed request for comment. The Semafor Report also stated that Israel did not participate in Washington's discussions with Tehran. Reporting by Ruchika Khanna in Bengaluru, Editing by Lincoln Feast
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Oil resumes its climb after fragile relief rally as shares are jittery
Oil prices rose and stocks were on tenterhooks on Tuesday, as investors worried about the Middle East war were not satisfied with President Donald Trump's decision to postpone the bombing Iran's electricity grid. U.S. Treasury Yields increased and the dollar regained ground in a retracement of a relief rally that swept the markets overnight, after Trump extended his Saturday ultimatum to Iran for it to reopen Strait of Hormuz by 48 hours. Trump cited "productive" discussions Tehran. There was a lot of uncertainty as the world continued to deal with an energy crisis, while Iran denied having engaged in any negotiations with the U.S. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that the underlying situation was still fragile or flammable. It doesn't appear that all of the parties are on the same page... Trump may talk all he wants, but the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and will remain closed until the Iranians are?on the exact same page. That's the problem." The European markets were off to a sombre start. EUROSTOXX futures fell 1%, while FTSE Futures dropped 0.47%. S&P 500 Futures dropped 0.56%, and Nasdaq Futures lost 6%. Asia shares, meanwhile, edged up in a rally to catch up with global counterparts. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by 1.3% while Tokyo's Nikkei gained?0.95%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.6%. The Israeli military reported that Iran launched waves of missiles towards Israel. Semafor, citing an?official from the U.S., reported that the U.S. would continue to?strike Iran with a pause only for attacks on Tehran's oil sites. Oil prices rose again on Tuesday, despite the ongoing war and the fact that shipments of liquefied gas and oil through the Strait of Hormuz are still restricted. Brent crude futures rose 3.6% to $103.58 per barrel, reversing a 10% decline from the previous session. U.S. crude climbed 4.12% to $81.76 per barrel. Thomas Mathews is the head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Economics. He said that even though it will be over soon, energy prices could remain higher and bond and equity prices lower for longer. DOLLAR PARES LOSES, YIELDS RISE U.S. Treasury Yields climbed on Tuesday, after a steep fall overnight. Little clarity about a possible end to the conflict has left traders pricing in an increasingly hawkish outlook for global interest rates. In Asia, the two-year yield increased by 7 basis points to 3.9015 percent while the benchmark 10-year rate was up over 4 basis points to 4.3797 percent. Investors have abandoned hope of further monetary ease globally in favor of pricing in rate increases across the majority developed nations. Futures indicate that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep rates at current levels this year. The Bank of England and European Central Bank, however, are expected to increase rates. Kit Juckes is the head of FX Strategy at Societe Generale. He said: "Unless the Strait of Hormuz (is reopened) very quickly, it's more likely than not that we will see higher interest rates and a significant increase in oil importer's costs in the next few weeks." The U.S. Dollar recovered from its Monday fall, pushing the Euro down by 0.24%, to $1.1587. Sterling fell 0.5%, to $1.3389. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar each fell by more than 0.5%. Spot gold fell 1.3% to $4,350.51 per ounce on expectations that U.S. interest rates will continue to rise. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Rae Wee)
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AMBITION EUROPE - A little relief from Trump
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The relief rally that was sparked by President Donald Trump's decision to postpone his threat to bomb Iran’s power grid lasted only one day. As 'Tehran' denied it was in talks with Washington, and as?global energy supply remained crippled on Tuesday, the risk sentiment in Asia quickly soured. Brent crude futures rose back to $100 per barrel. Asian shares recovered slightly, in a catch up rally with their global counterparts overnight. However, U.S. futures and European futures declined in choppy trading. The dollar recovered its losses, and U.S. Treasury yields began to climb again. Trump has added five more days to his ultimatum to Iran that it reopens the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours. However, the situation is still tense. There are few signs of a resolution to the Middle East conflict. The Israeli military said that Iran fired multiple missile waves at Israel. This triggered air raid sirens across the country, including Tel Aviv. In addition to scrambling for supplies, governments all over the world are also looking at ways to reduce demand and secure energy. In a post posted on X by Prime Minister Sanae Takayi on Tuesday, Takaichi stated that Japan will begin releasing oil held in joint stockpiles by other producing nations by the end March. The South Korean president Lee Jae Myung has called for an energy-saving campaign nationwide, and said that public institutions will reduce their use of cars. Three industry sources claim that traders have offered Iranian oil at a higher price to Indian refiners after Washington 'temporarily lifted sanctions' to ease the energy shortage. Data on Tuesday revealed that Japan's core inflation rate slowed to below the central bank target of 2% in February, for the first time in four years. This makes it more difficult for the Bank of Japan to communicate as they try and raise the still low borrowing costs. Also due on Tuesday are flash PMI readings from the Euro?zone, UK and U.S. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday. - UK, euro zone, U.S. flash PMIs (March) ECB's Pedro Machado and Piero Cipollone speak at separate events Barr, Feds speaks
Asia shares sneak higher as US, EU inflation information loom
Asian shares edged higher on Monday as financiers braced for a hectic week of information which culminates in an essential U.S. inflation report that could set the phase for a cut in interest rates there, albeit not for a few months yet.
Vacations in the United States and UK made for thin trading ahead of Friday's figures on core personal usage expenses (PCE), the Federal Reserve's favored measure of inflation. Mean projections are for an increase of 0.3% in April, keeping the annual pace at 2.8%, with risks on the downside.
Customer and manufacturer cost information recommend core PCE inflation lost further momentum in April after a strong start to the year. Certainly, we try to find the core index to advance 0.22% m/m vs 0.32%. in March and a preliminary 0.25% quote, stated analysts at TD. Securities in a note.
We also try to find the headline to increase 0.23% m/m while the. very core most likely cooled to 0.26%.
Figures for inflation in the euro zone are also due on. Friday and an anticipated tick as much as 2.5% needs to not stop the. European Central Bank from easing policy next week.
Policy makers Piero Cipollone and Fabio Panetta both flagged. a coming cut over the weekend, while markets imply an 88% chance. of an alleviating to 3.75% on June 6.
The Bank of Canada might likewise reduce next week, while the Fed. is seen waiting until September for its very first relocation.
There are at least eight Fed authorities due to speak this. week, including two appearances by the influential head of the. New York Fed John Williams.
The head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Monday stated they. would proceed meticulously with inflation-targeting structures,. keeping in mind that some difficulties are uniquely challenging for Japan. after years of ultra-easy monetary policy.
The BOJ holds its policy conference on June 14 and there is. some opportunity it may buck the international trend and walking rates once again,. albeit to a modest 0.15%.
The prospect of lower loaning expenses throughout much of the. globe has been positive for equities and products, though. many markets did face revenue taking recently.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan. gained 0.4%, having slipped 1.5% last week and. far from a two-year peak.
Taiwan stocks reached a record high having actually climbed up. more than 7% for the month up until now on a tide of tech bullishness. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.3%, ahead of a reading on Tokyo. consumer prices later on in the week.
Chinese blue chips firmed 0.2%, with the significant. release this week being studies of production and services. for May on Friday.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures eased 0.1%, while FTSE futures. were shut.
S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1%, as did Nasdaq futures . The Nasdaq hit record highs last week after Nvidia. beat expectations.
Undoubtedly, Nvidia alone has actually accounted for a quarter of the S&P. 500's gains so far this year, while the Stunning 7 tech. beloveds are up 24% for the year.
In currency markets, attention was again centred on the yen. and the threat of Japanese intervention ahead of the 160.00 level. The dollar stood at 156.78 yen, having included 0.9% last. week and near to its current top of 160.245. Japan renewed its push to counter excessive yen falls throughout. a weekend gathering of Group of 7 (G7) financing leaders,. after a recent rise in bond yields to a 12-year high stopped working to. slow the currency's decrease.
The euro was constant at $1.0845, and except its. current top at $1.0895.
Gold was holding at $2,340 an ounce, having recoiled. 3.4% last week and off an al-time peak of $2,449.89.
Oil prices were stuck near four-month lows in the middle of issues. about demand as the U.S. driving season gets underway today. Investors are waiting to see if OPEC+ will dispute new production. cuts at an online meeting on June 2, though analysts doubt there. will be an agreement for a move.
Brent was up 18 cents at $82.30 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 23 cents to $77.95 per barrel.
(source: Reuters)