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GRAINS-Chicago soya beans rise at biofuel coalition meeting
Chicago soybean futures rose Tuesday, ahead of a discussion between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and a coalition representing oil and biofuels groups to raise federal mandates on biomass diesel blends. Analysts say that corn futures gained support due to wet forecasts for the U.S. Delta, Ohio Valley and Midwest, while wheat futures grew on the back of reduced acreage, as reported in a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on Monday. The Chicago Board of Trade's most active soybean contract settled at $10.34-1/4, its highest level since March 6, and CBOT corn finished up 4-1/2cents at $4.61-3/4, while wheat rose 3-1/2 cents to $5.40-1/2 per bushel. Jim McCormick of AgMarket.net, a founding partner, stated that the news that a newly-formed coalition of oil groups and biofuel groups including the American Petroleum Institute was meeting with EPA representatives on Tuesday drove soybean oil futures higher on Tuesday. The coalition wants to see biomass diesel blend mandates raised from 5.5 billion up to 5.75 billion. McCormick said that the new mandate would represent a dramatic increase from the current 3,55 billion. McCormick said that the forecast of heavy rains in the U.S. Delta region and Ohio River Valley will also support corn production. He said, "It isn't a big problem yet but we won't be planting very quickly in that part of the country." The futures for wheat continued to rise as a result of the USDA's release on Monday of prospective planting data. The USDA's planting forecast for 2025 showed that the U.S. area of wheat would be lower than analyst expectations. McCormick reports that the grain markets are still bracing themselves for President Donald Trump to announce tariffs on 2 April. This prospect continues to raise concerns about retaliation by other countries against U.S. agricultural exports. Renee Hickman reported from Chicago. Reporting in Paris by Gus Trompiz, and Ella Cao, Mei Mei Chu and Mei Mei Chu from Beijing. Editing by Aurora Ellis.
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EnerSys moves production from Mexico to the US
EnerSys, a provider of energy services, announced on Tuesday that it will close its lead-acid manufacturing plant in Mexico due to flooding and move production to a US facility. The announcement coincides with the preparations of U.S. president Donald Trump to impose reciprocal duties on countries that impose tariffs on U.S. products, beginning on April 2, a day he has called "Liberation Day". A pre-tax charge in the amount of $20 million would be incurred in the first half 2025 due to the closure of the Monterrey plant in Mexico, and the subsequent transfer of production from that facility to the Richmond, Kentucky, plant. EnerSys said that the restructuring will result in an estimated annual pre-tax profit of $19,000,000, starting with fiscal year 2027. Shawn O'Connell said, "The transition will allow us to optimize our costs structure, maximize IRC 45X near-term tax benefits, mitigate future risks associated to potential tariffs, while strengthening our commitment to improve domestic industrial security." O'Connell will assume the role as chief executive officer by May. Reporting by Vallari Shrivastava from Bengaluru, editing by Maju Sam
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Trump Administration weighs new coal leasing at North Dakota mine
The Trump administration took a major step on Tuesday in leasing new areas for a North Dakota mine that plans to operate until 2045. Why it Matters The publication of an environmental draft analysis of the new lease areas of North Dakota's Freedom Mine aligns with President Donald Trump’s goal of increasing U.S. fossil-fuel production and reviving coal for electricity production. The United States' electricity supply, formerly dominated by coal, is now only about 16 percent, as natural gas and renewable energy are cheaper. By the Numbers Freedom Mine is owned by a NACCO division and produces between 11.5 to 13.5 million tonnes of lignite annually in Mercer County. The company has requested the lease of tracts covering 1,350 acres, which contains approximately 24 million tonnes of mineable coal. The owner of the mine was not immediately available to comment. Key Context Freedom Mine, which supplies coal to Basin Electric Power Cooperative power plants, first applied for the lease of the new areas in 2019. The company submitted an emergency application that would require a portion coal from the new lease area to be mined in three years. Leases consist of a mix of surface land owned by private and federal owners, and subsurface coal. What's Next? The Bureau of Land Management is seeking public feedback on the proposed leasing until May 2. The Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management, a division, is evaluating a variety of options including leasing less land. The assistant secretary of Interior for Land and Minerals must approve the company's modification to its mining plan. (Reporting and editing by Nichola Grroom)
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China to sell its first green sovereign bond Wednesday
China will finalise the long-awaited global green sovereign bonds on Wednesday. This is expected to mark the beginning of a series that will increase its market share at a crucial time. The signal was sent to indicate that the vehicle was ready Last month Top Chinese Finance Ministry officials laid out the detail at a meeting in London with investors on Tuesday. The 6 billion yuan bond ($825 millions) is scheduled to be listed on the London Stock Exchange. Green bonds have grown to a market value of $3 trillion over the past few years. China's state-run firms have made a significant contribution to this growth. However, international investors have been waiting years for the government to act. Director General Yu Hong of the Chinese Finance Ministry and his Deputy, Xing Chaohong, explained that it will be in two parts – one with a maturity of 3 years and another with a maturity date or deadline of 5 years. Both will have fixed rates. The interest rates are expected to be below 2%, but it depends on the demand during formal sales which will be overseen by eight banks in both China and Europe. The size of China has made it a long-anticipated country to issue a global bond. China's plan was finally revealed earlier this year, after British Finance minister Rachel Reeves and Vice Premier He Lifeng met in Beijing to discuss pragmatic co-operation on financial services. China, the largest emitter of climate-warming gases, has stated that it will peak its carbon dioxide emission before 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2060. The Finance Ministry published its framework for green bonds in February. It was described as an attempt to "attract foreign funds to support low-carbon and green domestic development". Climate Change Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptation were listed as the five main priorities. An investor who attended the meeting on Tuesday said that the money raised will be used to fund the electric vehicle charging networks and national parks of the country.
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Former world leaders call on EU to maintain a firm stance on climate
Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland, said on Tuesday that a group of former leaders from around the world are urging Europe not to let trade wars or defence spending divert attention away from climate change issues. The Elders, the group created by Nelson Mandela as former South African president, will meet with EU and NATO in late this month to discuss ways to soften upcoming corporate climate disclosure regulations to address concerns about competitiveness. Robinson, Ireland's former president from 1990-97, said that she was concerned about the plans, but that the bloc has an opportunity to seize the leadership of the United States on the fast-growing clean technology market and climate policy in general. She said: "The crisis that has arisen in the United States due to a federal retreat from climate science and everything related is an opportunity for Europe, the United Kingdom and the rest of world." It's important that Europe adheres to its principles and sticks to the green industrial policy. International Energy Agency said that the global market for clean technology such as solar photovoltaics and wind turbines, could grow from $700billion in 2023 to over $2 trillion in 2035. This is close to the value of the crude oil market in the world. Robinson warned Brussels to not let the war between Russia and Ukraine, trade wars or anti-climate rhetoric from U.S. president Donald Trump dictate long-term thinking about climate issues. She also said that many businesses across the EU were willing to and able support the green shift. Robinson will join former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem-Brundtland, international human rights activist Denis Mukwege and others to urge Brussels to take a leadership role in tackling some of the biggest threats to the world. They will encourage the EU to develop a timely climate action plan. The Elders was founded in 2007. They are advocates for peace, justice and human rights, as well as a sustainable world. Former U.N. secretary general Ban Ki-moon, and former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark are members of the group. Reporting by Virginia Furness, London. Editing by Matthew Lewis
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Four missing US Army soldiers found dead in Lithuania
The bodies of a fourth U.S. Army Soldier, along with three other soldiers, have been discovered, U.S. officials and Lithuanian officials announced on Tuesday. Three other soldiers were discovered dead after rescuers found the armoured vehicles of the four missing soldiers near the border to Belarus. The body of a fourth U.S. Soldier, who was in Lithuania for training, has been discovered, wrote Lithuanian President Gitanas Nuseda on social media platform X. He offered condolences. White House Press Secretary Karoline leavitt confirmed the fourth death. She told reporters during a White House briefing that U.S. president Donald Trump and his Administration were praying for the victims and families. Nauseda thanked all those who "helped find the last soldier missing in such difficult conditions." Rescuers had spent days Digging to recover The M88 Hercules armored recovery vehicle was used by the soldiers as part of a training exercise at Pabrade, where U.S. troops have been rotating in since 2019. Reporting by Stine Jacobsen and Steve Holland in Copenhagen, and Gram Slattery and Mark Porter in Washington. Editing by Gareth Jones and Susan Heavey.
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Mercedes denies that it may withdraw cheaper cars from the US
Mercedes-Benz has denied a report published by Bloomberg News Tuesday, which claimed that the automaker had considered withdrawing its lowest models from the U.S. in anticipation of a 25% additional tariff on imports. "This report is without merit. Mercedes-Benz is committed to increasing sales of its high-end vehicles, a spokesperson for the company said in an email in response to this report. Bloomberg reported that the automaker is considering removing more entry-level cars from sale in order to prepare for tariff contingencies. Experts in the industry have warned that tariffs to be implemented on April 3 will likely lead to higher prices for consumers and fewer models available. There is not enough margin to absorb tariff costs, especially when it comes to more affordable vehicles targeted at first time buyers. Mercedes-Benz executives said on a Monday investor call that they were building up their inventory in the U.S. wholesale and dealer levels to be ahead of the tariffs. They also discussed further mitigation measures. Reporting by Gursimran in Bengaluru, and Victoria Waldersee. Writing by Maria Martinez. Editing by Shinjini Ganuli and Jan Harvey.
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Study shows that AI will not kill your business, but it can make it stronger
A study conducted at the European Central Bank Conference found that AI can help a company thrive on the long run if it survives the disruption caused by artificial intelligence. The authors of the study, who used survey data and data from the U.S. Census Bureau for the years 2017-2021, found that early adopters in the manufacturing industry saw their productivity decline as they replaced humans with robots. The findings of the researchers contradict the prevailing narrative that AI increases productivity and "augments", rather than automates, many jobs. Kristina MacElheran, a co-author of the paper and a speaker at the conference, said: "In the short run, we see many pains." She explained that the decrease in productivity was a result of AI interfering on established manufacturing practices such as maintaining low inventories. As time went on, these companies began to outperform their competitors in terms of sales, productivity, and employment, provided they were able to survive the turmoil. McElheran said, "Surviving seems to be part of the issue," a researcher from the University of Toronto. She said that this recovery does not happen in older companies which are also larger and "struggle" to achieve this. McElheran, along with his colleagues, studied a sample of 30 000 firms where AI adoption increased from 7.5% to 9% over the period of study. ECB President Christine Lagarde said earlier that between 23% and 29 percent of European workers were highly exposed AI. However, this did not have to herald a 'job apocalypse' because new jobs would be created as old ones were destroyed. (Reporting By Francesco Canepa Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
Trades to Make Europe Great Again are gaining momentum
Investors are recognizing that a more independent and less U.S. dependent Europe is emerging. These opportunities go beyond simply buying defence stocks.
There is good reason to be cautious, as the massive German expenditure on infrastructure and defence will not be felt for some time. Many are still playing the long-game.
Mark Dowding is the CIO of RBC's BlueBay Fixed Income team. He said that MAGA trades have now replaced MEGA trades. MAGA trades had lost their appeal. Mark was referring to President Donald Trump's Make America Great Again campaign.
DEFENCE FIRST
The German fiscal expansion and the Brussels plan to mobilize up to 800 billion euro ($866 billion) in rearmament means that defence stocks are still a fertile investment ground, even though they have risen since Russia invaded Ukraine 2022.
European aerospace and defense stocks are up 33% in the past year. The valuation multiples of these stocks now exceed those of their U.S. counterparts, reaching levels usually associated with high-tech or luxury goods.
This month, the tankmaker Rheinmetall briefly traded at a higher price than Ferrari, with a 44-fold multiple of its expected earnings. Investors are willing to pay more for this long-term trend.
Citi estimates that the average annual profit growth of defence companies is expected to range from 8% at BAE up to 32% at Rheinmetall by 2028.
It's not easy for the European Union to purchase more European weapons. Data from the European Commission shows that 78% of EU purchases have been made outside the EU since 2022. 63% went to the U.S.
Some caution after a large rally.
Markus Hansen, the Vontobel Fund Manager Markus Hansen believes that investors should concentrate on areas where there is a real and pressing need such as rebuilding depleted ammo stockpiles or infantry-related gear.
Defence supply chain companies and other sectors, including communications, could also benefit.
Eutelsat's stock has risen 260% in the last month on speculation that it could replace Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite to provide internet access to Ukraine.
Defence is not just about weapons. It's also about data, communication and logistics. Tomas Hildebrandt, portfolio manager at Evli, said that the value chain is a complex one where suppliers are important.
He said that examples could include the truckmaker Scania, Traton's Atlas Copco, which manufactures machinery for industrial and infrastructure projects, as well as construction companies.
Hey Bond
There will be more triple-A rated debts, whether they are joint EU bonds or German debt. This will help to maintain the status of the euro as a reserve currency.
The historic infrastructure and defense spending in Germany could amount to more than A
Additional debt of trillions of euros
Even the EU's supporters did not anticipate this move just a few months ago.
The SAFE bonds will add to the EU's debt of 650 billion euros.
This is a sign that the EU might be able to become a permanent borrower, as investors had long hoped. It would also mean it was ready to take on another challenge following its COVID-19 Recovery Fund.
However, the loans are only a small part of the 800-billion euro plan. The rest is left to the national governments.
3/ BINGING ON IT
The fiscal boost has brightened the economic outlook and European banks have surged by 26% in the first quarter of the year, their best since 2020.
Berenberg predicts that Germany's GDP will grow by roughly 1.4% between 2026 and 2027, after nearly four years of stagnation.
According to a March survey by BofA, the biggest sector overstretch in Europe is insurance and banks. Industrials are next.
Trevor Yates is a senior investment analyst at GlobalX and noted that the firm's DAX German stocks ETF has been receiving a lot of interest.
Investors expect European regulators to ease bank rules in light of the U.S. regulatory drive.
BlueBay Dowding stated that European bank capital bond were the firm's biggest overweight position in multi asset credit funds.
PERIPHERAL WINNS
Manish Kabra of Societe Generale's multi-asset strategist says that Spanish and Italian stocks are cheaper than those found in the core Europe. They could be poised to gain.
Southern European stocks also have a lower exposure to U.S. Tariffs than Germany and France, but they are heavily exposed to banks.
There are parallel developments. The German debt brake is one thing, but the MDAX (midcap) and the long euro are the other. "The two things that impact the banks are banking regulation and nominal GDP growth in Europe," Kabra explained.
The periphery provides exactly that.
5/ RENEWABLE
Analysts said that the push for Europe to become more independent in energy, starting 2022, will continue. Renewable energy and domestic power companies are expected to benefit.
The European Commission presented an Action Plan that aims to accelerate permits for renewable energy, change the way energy tariffs are calculated, and increase aid from state for cleaner industries and flexible power generation.
The German government plans to increase its spending by 100 billion euros, which will go towards climate and economic transformation.
Think tank Ember reports that solar generation will provide 11% of EU electricity in 2024 compared to 9.3% in 2030, and surpass coal.
Iberdola Endesa Enel, European utility companies have all rallied between 7-16% this year.
(source: Reuters)