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Investors shop for Q3 at MORNING BID EUROPE
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. This session is the first day of buying for the next quarter, as trades settle on the following day. The 'biggest supply shock in history' has barely left a mark on the financial markets as China cut demand, producers and alternative shipping routes filled the shortfall. The oil prices have dropped to the levels they were before the U.S., Israel and Iran conflict began in February. Skirmishes that strain the ceasefire draw little attention. Even the bond markets seem to be changing. The bond market is also moving on. Bonds were largely unmoved, as predicted in January, by the U.S. Supreme Court refusing to allow President Donald Trump to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. The AI rally continues unabated, with gains of 100 percent in the first half of the year for South Korea's KOSPI and a record rise of 36% quarter-on-quarter for Japan's Nikkei. The flow of foreign money has been counterintuitive. Foreign cash is streaming out of South Korea, dragging the won down as investors take profits and rebalance the market through the rally. Retail investors are left to chase gains. Recent speed wobbles could shift the market's focus to a wider range of stocks that are rising, but not as hot, in Europe where the STOXX Index is up 9% this quarter and Asia where China mainland blue chips have risen 10%. The yen, as well as the won, is in trouble, due to the market's view that Japan is behind the global trend of higher interest rates. The dollar crossed 162 for the first since 1986 during the Asia session. Traders say that the risk of an intervention increases the closer the rate gets to 165. German, French and Italian readings of inflation are due. They could show a drop in annual rates and confirm that rates can be held in Europe for some time. The European Central Bank’s Isabel Schnabel is on a panel at Sintra where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will be arriving on Wednesday. The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets: Economic indicators: British GDP, U.S. consumer confidence, European inflation Sintra Forum: Events (Editing by Jacqueline Wong).
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Russell: Crude oil imports to Asia from the ROI grew in June, but there is still uncertainty.
Asia's crude oil imports by sea rose slightly in June, but they remained near their lowest levels?in over a decade due to the Iran conflict which crimped Middle East shipments. Data from commodity analysts Kpler show that the top importing region is expected to receive 20,71 million barrels of oil per day in June. This is up a fraction from the 20.39 million barrels of oil per day in May and almost 2 million more than the 18,77 million bpd received in April. The imports of Asia remain well below the average 26.79 millions bpd for the three-month period prior to the United States' and Israel's attacks on Iran on February 28. The war resulted in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway that connects Iran and Oman, through which 20% of crude oil and refined products were transported before the conflict. The United States and Iran agreed to a 60-day truce that was to result in the full reopening the Strait. However, vessel movements are still well below the pre-war level due to Iranian attacks against?some ships. The Strait of Hormuz has seen a recent increase in crude volumes, but Kpler estimates that only 2.79 millions bpd of oil will have been exported in June. This is up from 881,000 barrels per day in May, but still less than a fifth of what was averaged for the three-month period prior to the beginning of the conflict, which was 15.58 million barrels per day. Unresolved is the question of whether or not crude exports to the Middle East can return to their pre-war level, and?if so, how long it will take. SEE SOLUTION FOR PRICES Brent futures contracts ended at $73.15 per barrel on Monday. This is only slightly more than the $72.48 close on February 27th, the day before hostilities began. The prices of refined products in Asia are a little different. They remain above the pre-war level as refiners process expensive crude bought from outside the Middle East during the height of the conflict. Singapore gasoil (the building block of?diesel) ended Monday at $111.15 per barrel, up by 22% since the February 27 close price of $91.42. Gasoline On Monday, oil finished at $100.42 per barrel. This is a 26.6% increase from the $79.30 it was on February 27. As more crude oil arrives in Asia, it is likely that the price of refined products will fall in the coming weeks. How quickly the import volume returns to pre-conflict levels will determine how much of a difference there is. The Strait of Hormuz is still a wildcard, with Iran determined to exert control in spite of the opposition of the Trump administration, Gulf crude exporters like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, and even the United States. Tanker owners and insurers will continue to be concerned about possible attacks, causing uncertainty over the safety of the Strait. What China does over the next few months is another wildcard. By reducing imports dramatically, the world's biggest crude importer has averted the negative impact of restricted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler predicts that China's seaborne imports will be only 5.80 million bpd, down from 6.80 million in May, the two weakest months since November 2015. The average seaborne imports of China for the three-month period prior to the conflict was 11.39 millions bpd. With crude prices now back where they were prior to the start of the war, China's refiners are likely to once again begin buying cargoes. However, these will not be delivered until August. The level of uncertainty on the crude oil market in Asia is still high. Will the crude market tighten if China returns to buying the same volume of crude as it did prior to the Iran War, particularly if the Strait Of Hormuz flows do not increase as much as futures markets appear to expect? What will happen to the crude supply when the current influx of stockpile releases from countries like the United States and Japan stops? The crude oil market has so far shown remarkable adaptability and resilience in the face the disruption brought on by the Iran War. It is unclear whether this trend will continue. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Sources say that Iraq's SOMO is offering big discounts on Basrah oil for the term of July.
According to trade sources, and a document that was reviewed by us, 'Iraq SOMO offered large discounts on its official selling price to encourage term buyers to lift Basrah oil?from the terminal inside the Middle East Gulf this July. Discounts for Basrah Medium Crude ranged between $14 and $16 per barrel. Basrah Heavy Crude discounts varied from $16.80 to $18.80 per barrel depending on the loading period. Discounts for cargoes that load between July 1-5 are greater, while they narrower for those loading between July 6-10 or July 11-31. SOMO has asked buyers to "submit" their quantity nominations within one day of receiving the letter. A trade source stated that the discounts were intended to compensate buyers who had to pay high chartering fees for ships to enter the Strait of Hormuz in order to get oil. The daily rate of a Very Large Crude Carrier for loading 2 million barrels from the Middle East into China has increased to around $300,000 from $220,000 before the U.S. Israel and the United States launched attacks on Iran. However, LSEG data show that this rate has fallen from a high of $600,000. Two other people stated that the 'wide discounts on Basrah crude oil may entice purchasers, but it remains to be seen if the 'Strait of Hormuz can be passed. Another source stated that SOMO had issued a tender last week to sell crude oil for July loading. However, the tender failed to generate any interest from buyers because traders were having difficulty booking tankers into the Gulf. Oil loading by other Middle East producers is accelerating, but shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has slowed down amidst recent ship attacks and strikes between the U.S.A. and Iran. Reporting by Florence Tan from Singapore and Nidhi in New Delhi, with editing by Tom Hogue & Sonali Paul
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Oil prices fall as investors concentrate on possible Iran-US talks at Doha
Investors are looking at potential U.S. - Iran talks in Doha, amid a tensioned interim ceasefire of the four-month old war. Brent crude August futures expiring on Tuesday were down by 0.9% or 64 cents at $72.51 per barrel as of 0356 GMT. The levels are about $20 or 22% lower than the closing price of last month. The September contract, which is the most actively traded, was down 0.4% or 31 cents at $73.6 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell by 0.6% or 39 cents to $70.36 per barrel in August. Prices are set for a 19% drop or $17 from the closing price of May 29. Brent and WTI are both almost back to pre-war levels as of February 27. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that investors are pricing their investments in anticipation of a positive result from the Doha negotiations, despite the fact that the real normalisation of the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been visible. Waterer said that the market was cautiously optimistic, but was still "hedging" its bets pending a more tangible sign of de-escalation. Kazem Gharibabadi, deputy foreign minister of Iran, told state TV that Iranian and Omani experts would begin talks in the next few days to redefine transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz. He also said his country would try to block vessels straying from the defined paths. Esmaeil baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, said that there would be no meetings with the American side at any level in the near future. The meeting in Doha will be important or not, depends on the outcome. Donald Trump, U.S. president, told reporters in his Oval Office: "We're going find out." The uncertainty?over whether or not the two sides will meet underscored the fragility of an agreement?on June 17?to pause the fighting?that has?disrupted the global oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz?and posed a challenge to Trump before the November congressional elections. Some analysts were concerned that China's demand would increase prices. Neil Crosby, head of research at Sparta Commodities, said: "We are waiting for more evidence that Chinese buying is increasing but we cannot bet yet on a large return to the market by the world's biggest crude importer." Shipping data revealed that Middle East producers continue to?load oil and LNG in spite of recent?attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the renewed U.S.-Iran strikes. Last week, traffic reached its highest level since conflict began in February. Reporting by Pranav mathur in Bengaluru, and Trixie yap in Singapore. Editing by Muralikumar anantharaman.
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Asian stocks set to record-breaking quarter as dollar sinks gold, yen and yen
Asian stocks shook as they approached the end of a stellar quarter on Tuesday. A resurgent Dollar pushed the Japanese yen down to its lowest level in four decades, and was heading for a fourth consecutive quarterly rise. Japan's Nikkei is set to record a record gain of 36% in the second quarter. South Korea's chipmaker driven KOSPI fell 1% but was still on track for a record second quarter rise of more than 65%, having doubled in value year-to date. Brent crude futures are trading at $72.49 per barrel, which is the pre-war price. This is even with the current tensions in the interim ceasefire. Kerry Craig, strategist with J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said that the lower oil prices have reinforced their view that the global economy is growing more trend-like than the sub-trend they were thinking of two months ago. This has also contributed to the improved earnings story. In the morning of Asia, Wall Street indexes had risen overnight. Futures prices were unchanged. The dollar is expected to rise by a quarter thanks to the remarkable change in interest rate expectations for the United States, which have shifted from cuts to increases due to inflationary pressures and economic strength. The rise of the dollar has pushed gold down to its biggest quarterly drop in over a decade, while in Asia trade the yen hit a four-decade low of 162.41 for every dollar. This set traders on edge about a possible Japanese intervention. Satsuki Katayama, Japan's finance minister, said that authorities were ready to react appropriately at any moment. The dollar index has risen 1.3% in the last quarter. However, this week, the euro returned to the chart level of $1.14. Next moves will likely be determined by U.S. employment data due on Thursday, as Friday is a holiday. Also, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance on Wednesday may also influence the market. The data for the day will include the European inflation rate, U.S. consumer sentiment and job openings, as well as the European inflation rate. SELLING RECORDS RALLY Taiwan's benchmark in Asia is expected to rise by more than 40% this quarter, while other regions are unable to keep up with the semiconductor-driven markets. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was a notable laggard, as it limped - mostly flat -- on?Tuesday to a 7.5% quarterly drop. Foreigners have been selling all the way to the top as they rebalance their portfolios and are worried about diversification. According to BNY, South Korean stocks have lost a net $17.3 billion in the past year. Geoff Yu, BNY's macro-strategist, said: "This gap between returns and flow fits a wider pattern across Asia’s tech-heavy market: strong performance triggers rebalancing of markets and profit-taking and not new institutional buying." Investors are paying attention to the STOXX Index in Europe, which is expected to rise by 9% for the third quarter. Also, China's blue-chip CSI300, which has risen about 10% for this quarter, is gaining traction. Craig, of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said that some investors are concerned about their tech exposure. "They're looking at other themes, such as renewables or defence, to diversify more in their portfolio," Craig added. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman; Reporting by Tom Westbrook)
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Oil prices fall as investors concentrate on possible Iran-US talks at Doha
Investors are awaiting the outcome of the U.S. and Iran talks?in Doha, after both sides fired missiles at each other over the weekend to test an interim ceasefire. Brent crude futures for August, which expires on Tuesday, are down?1.03% or 75 cents at $72.40 per barrel as of 0038 GMT. The September contract, which is more actively traded, was down 0.54% or 40 cents at $73.51 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 0.66% or 47 cents to $70.32 per barrel. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that investors are pricing their investments in anticipation of a positive result from the Doha negotiations, despite the fact that the real normalisation of the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been seen. Waterer said that the market is cautiously optimistic, but it's still hedging bets until there are more tangible signs of a de-escalation. Iranian and 'Omani experts are set to begin talks in the next few days on redefining the transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz, Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on state TV. He added that his country would try to 'obstruct vessels beyond defined paths. Esmaeil baghaei, the spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, said that there will be no meetings with the American side at any level in the next few days. The meeting in Doha will be important or not, depends on the outcome. Donald Trump, U.S. president, told reporters in his Oval Office: "We're going find out." The uncertainty about whether the two sides will?meet? highlighted the fragility of the June 17 agreement that halted fighting, which has disrupted oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz. It also posed a challenge to Trump's political position ahead of the November congressional elections. Israel has distanced itself and refused to join the U.S.Iran 'peace talks'. Shipping data shows that Middle East producers continue to load oil and LNG, despite recent attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and new strikes between Iran and the U.S. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that if the Persian Gulf flow rate continues to improve at the same pace as the previous?two week period, Gulf flows may return to the pre-war level of 23 million barrels per day by early July. Last week, traffic reached its highest level since conflict began in February. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman in Bengaluru. Reporting by Pranav Mathur from Bengaluru)
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Officials say 10 people have been killed in Russian attacks on major Ukrainian cities
Authorities said that Russian strikes on three major Ukrainian towns killed at least ten people on Monday and injured dozens more. The attacks continued into the afternoon as the death toll increased. Oleksandr Hanzha, regional governor of the region, said that a missile attack on Dnipro in the southeast killed six people and injured 29 others. He claimed that a business, school, homes, and cars were attacked. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukrainian president, said on X that "Russia launched a rocket strike on Dnipro targeting infrastructure". He added that rescue operations are underway. "It's essential that Europe be as active as it can in developing its anti-ballistic defense - its systems and missiles," said he. In his video nightly address, the President promised a reaction to all of the strikes. "We are doing this to, above all else, affect the Russian system of state and Russia's capacity to prolong the war," said he. Officials in Zaporizhzhia said that a Russian drone strike on a minibus further south killed two men, a woman, and injured eight others, including a seven-year-old child. Ivan Fedorov posted footage on Telegram showing a minibus with bloody floor and damaged back doors, as well as a dead body inside. A blackened minibus was shown on television with its doors blown off and a bloody floor. "People feel the war more. What else can I tell you? Svitlana, 58, who lost her husband in the incident said, "This is terrorism. Nothing else." Anatolii Ntkin, the driver of the nearby car that was damaged by the incident, called the attack "a very serious terrorist act". Many gas stations were already damaged. Fedorov said that seven people were injured, including two kids, when a drone exploded later near a bus. According to officials, a glide-bomb?killed 23-year-old woman in Kharkiv (Ukraine's second largest city) and injured 10 others. Ihor Terekhov, the mayor of Kharkiv, said that this attack damaged a tram as well as more than 15 vehicles. The footage on television showed police and forensic specialists?combing the site, and a dead body lying nearby. A second glide bomb was launched less than an hr later, but it failed to explode. Three large industrial cities - Kharkiv Dnipro Zaporizhzhia - have been repeatedly attacked by the Russians during this?war now in its fifth years. No comment was made by Russia about the attacks. The 'war in Ukraine' has resulted in the deaths of thousands of Ukrainian citizens. Moscow has also claimed that Ukraine hit civilian targets in attacks against Russia or Russian occupied areas. However, this was on a smaller scale. Both sides deny targeting civilians. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones and Max Hunder, Ron Popeski, Peter Graff and Sanjeev miglani.)
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World Bank abandons goal of committing 45% of its lending resources to climate-change projects
The World Bank Group announced on Monday that it will "retire", its previous goal of?dedicating?45%?of its annual lending resources towards projects with climate benefits, but extend the long-standing Climate Change Action Plan which was due to expire Tuesday. The lender for development, under pressure from the Trump Administration to abandon the climate-lending target set during the Biden administration of 2023, announced in a press release that it would shift its focus to lending outcomes rather than input goals. Ajay Banaga, the World Bank president, was originally charged with extracting more climate loan resources from the bank's balance sheet. He has now shifted his attention to "smart growth," which is aimed at boosting job opportunities, while still providing climate benefits, such as drought resistant agriculture,?storm resistant infrastructure, and renewable energy, where appropriate. The World Bank announced that, at the request from its executive board the Independent Evaluation Group of the lender would review the Climate Change Action Plan(CCAP), first adopted as rolling five-year plan in 2016. Bank officials said that the demand from clients for climate-related projects remains strong. Executive directors from France, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and other countries that hold shares in the bank had signed a statement last October, endorsing its continued work on climate changes. However, the United States was not one of them, nor were executive directors from Russia, Kuwait, or Saudi Arabia. India and Japan also remained silent. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, had in 2025 ordered the World Bank to return to its core mission of financial stability and development. He argued that they had strayed too far into climate change, gender, and other areas which were opposed by the Trump Administration. In April, he said that the bank's "myopic focus" on climate financing targets must be dropped. Eleonore Caoit, French Development Minister, made a last-minute plea to the World Bank that the climate finance target be kept intact. Our framework has been a success, incorporating smart development into all that we do in response to our clients' needs and priorities. The World Bank announced that it would extend the CCAP. The bank stated that its management will continue to track its climate scorecard indicators, including net global greenhouse gas emissions as well as beneficiaries who have enhanced resilience?to climate risk under the CCAP. The bank will report quarterly on its lending portfolio and all projects. The bank stated that it would "explore and discuss ways in which we can better structure our engagement with adaptation, nature and pollution." (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul; David Lawder)
Asian stocks set to record-breaking quarter as dollar sinks gold, yen and yen
Asian stocks surged on Tuesday at the end of an impressive quarter, as a resurgent yen fell to its lowest level in four decades and headed towards a fourth consecutive quarterly increase. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.6% and is on track to set a new record for quarterly gains of over 38%. South Korea's KOSPI, which is dominated by chipmakers, rose 3%. However it was on track for a record-breaking second-quarter gain of more than 71%. It has already doubled in the past year.
Brent crude futures are trading at $72.49 per barrel, which is the pre-war price. This is even with the current tensions in the interim ceasefire.
"Now that oil prices are down, this reinforces our view of a more trend-like?growth?around?the world as compared to the sub-trend we thought about a few months ago. It also feeds into the better earnings stories," said Kerry Craig, strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, in Melbourne. Wall Street indexes were up overnight, and futures in Asia were slightly higher. European futures rose 0.6% and were poised for a strong session start. Dollar is set to rise by a quarter thanks to the remarkable change in interest rate expectations for the United States. Economic strength and inflationary forces.
Dollar's rise caused gold to fall at its highest quarterly rate in over a decade, while the yen reached a four-decade low of 162.41 per dollar in Asia trade. This set traders on edge regarding possible Japanese intervention. Satsuki Katayama, Japan's finance minister, said that authorities were ready to act at any moment.
The dollar index has risen 1.3% in the last quarter. However, this week, the euro returned to the $1.14 chart. Next moves will likely be driven by U.S. employment data due on Thursday, as Friday is a holiday. Also, Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve chair, will appear on Wednesday. The Chinese manufacturing sector expanded in June, thanks to high-tech imports. Also scheduled for the session are European inflation and U.S. consumer sentiment and job openings.
SELLING THE RECORD RALLY
Taiwan's benchmark will rise by more than 46% this quarter, while other regions are unable to keep up with the semiconductor-driven markets.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng was a notable laggard, as it struggled -- mostly flat -- on?Tuesday to a 7.5% drop in a quarter. The behavior of large investors during the record quarter was unusual. As the index weightings of Asia's major chipmakers increased, foreigners sold all the way to the top as they rebalanced their portfolios and worried about diversification.
BNY reports that a net $17.3 billion in South Korean equity has been sold this year.
Geoff Yu, BNY's macro-strategist, said that the gap between returns on investments and flows is part of a larger pattern in Asia's technology-heavy markets. Strong performance triggers rebalancing as well as profit-taking and not new institutional purchases.
Investors are paying attention to the STOXX Index, which is expected to rise by 9% for the third quarter. The mainland China CSI300, which has risen about 10% in this period, also shows solid gains.
Craig, of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said that some investors are concerned about their tech exposure. "They're looking at other themes, such as renewables or defence, to diversify more in their portfolio." (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman, Stephen Coates, and Tom Westbrook)
(source: Reuters)