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Russell: There is plenty of crude oil in Asia, but the refined fuels are scarce.

Russell: There is plenty of crude oil in Asia, but the refined fuels are scarce.
Russell: There is plenty of crude oil in Asia, but the refined fuels are scarce.

Asia's crude oil imports are expected to return to pre -Iran Conflict? levels, but the flow of refined products is still constrained. Fuel prices reflect this supply stress.

According to data compiled by Kpler, the world's largest energy consumer region is expected to import 22.18 millions barrels of crude per day in June. This represents an increase from 20.35million bpd imported in May.

The arrivals in June are still below the 26.76m bpd average for the three months leading up to the United States' and Israel's attack on Iran, which took place on February 28.

The figures are still well above the 8-year low of 18,77 million bpd that was recorded in April, when the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed by Iran.

In July, it's likely that the reopening the narrow waterway where up to 20% of crude oil and refined products were transported before the conflict will enable more oil to be shipped to Asia.

Kpler has tracked only?5.76m bpd in seaborne arrivals for June.

This figure will likely be revised upwards before the end of the month as more cargoes arrive for assessment, but it confirms that China has dramatically reduced its crude imports due to the increased prices caused by Iran's war.

China's seaborne exports fell to their lowest level since February 2018, with Kpler data indicating arrivals of 6.78 million bpd. This is down from an average 11.37 million in the three-month period before the Iran War.

It appears that while crude imports in Asia ex China are on the rise, it is more difficult to return flows of refined products to their pre-war level.

Asia's refiners will export 9.20 million bpd (light and middle distillates) in June. This is up from 6.99 million bpd, in May, and 6.28 million in April.

Although this might seem like a good recovery, the figure for June is still 13% lower than the 10,56 million bpd that was shipped in the three-month period before the beginning of the conflict (February 28).

In many Asian countries the refinery inventories are also down, so that there is a tight market for fuels like diesel and gasoline.

FUEL PRICE PREMIUM

Prices in the region have fallen from their record highs during the conflict but remain elevated in comparison to crude oil prices.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, ended on June 19 at $80.57 per barrel. This is an increase of 11.2% over the close of February 27. It's also a drop of 36.3% compared to April 30's war high of $126.41.

Jet fuel was the refined product that suffered the most from the conflict, as it has the smallest buffer of stock and degrades more quickly than other fuels.

Singapore jet fuel On June 19, the price of a barrel was $112.49, which is still 20.4% higher than the $93.45 it was the day before war began.

Last week, gasoil, which is the main component of diesel, was priced at $111.61 per barrel. This represents a 22.1% increase from the $91.42 price on February 27. Meanwhile, gasoline The closing price of the war ended at $103.56, an increase of 30.6% over its previous close, which was $79.30.

As refiners in Asia begin to receive more crude oil, they are likely to start increasing processing rates and increase the supply of refined product.

The margins of refineries remain high due to the "premium" of fuels over crude. A typical Singapore refinery enjoys a profit of around $11.51 per barrel, which is a 34% increase on the $8.59 average for the last year.

The speed at which refined fuels are able to return to their pre-war levels will depend on the ability of the United States to keep its ceasefire agreement with Iran and the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz.

In the medium term, it is more important to track vessel movements in the strait rather than the social media bluster of the various parties involved.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)