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IMF warns against large fuel subsidies in response to war-driven energy shock

In its Fiscal Monitor report, released on Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund stated that the war in the Middle East had intensified the strains already present in an already fragile fiscal situation. Higher interest rates and rising energy prices have already fueled calls for assistance from developing countries and emerging markets.

Rodrigo Valdes is the new head of fiscal affairs at the IMF. He said that countries should avoid fuel subsidies in order to help their citizens cope with an oil shortage and a corresponding rise in energy prices. He said that targeted, temporary cash transfers would be the better option.

We don't have any oil. "We don't have oil." "Energy needs to be more costly for everyone so that we can adjust and consume less," Valdes said in an interview.

The IMF cut its growth forecast on Tuesday due to energy price spikes caused by war and disruptions in supply. It warned that the global economic system could be pushed to the 'edge of recession' if the conflict intensifies and oil prices remain above $100 per barrel until 2027.

Valdes stated that "you can pass on (higher energy costs) and do other things to help." "It is a global shock, and if countries suppress price signals, the global price would be higher." It is very important to send price signals so that demand can be adjusted.

Valdes stated that the impact of the war would be determined by the export controls, damage to the energy infrastructure, and the ability of other countries to increase oil production.

He said that once conditions stabilized it was important to stay focused on the longer-term issues, as public debt increased, primarily due to permanent spending on entitlements or reduced revenues in many of the world's largest economies.

According to the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor, global government debt will reach 93.9% in 2025. This is up two percentage points compared to 92% one year prior. It will also be expected to reach 100 percent by 2029. That’s a full year sooner than was predicted just a few months ago.

The report stated that this would be the highest level of government debt since World War II. The report said that the government debt would continue to rise and could reach up to 102.3% GDP by 2031.

The IMF also said that interest payments had also increased sharply. They will reach nearly 3% GDP by 2025, up 2% from four years ago.

Valdes warned about emerging risks. He said that hedge funds were less able to "hold debt on the long term." The duration of debt has also decreased, which means that short-term rates are more easily transmitted to debt dynamics.

In a blog that accompanied the report, the IMF noted other challenges, including higher security costs, spending on energy and climate change, and increasing interest rates at a time where revenues have not kept pace. The IMF warned that trade and financial fragmentation would further stifle growth and increase borrowing costs. Political instability could also undermine reforms and revenue collections. Financial conditions could be tightened quickly by sudden changes in the markets, such as in AI stocks.

Valdes said that countries should begin working on fiscal consolidation as soon as the immediate crisis is resolved.

He said that while some countries are taking the issue seriously, many others have not yet developed a clear plan.

"We are not in a crisis... but the longer you delay, the greater the effort you will need and the greater the chance of a disorderly consolidating later." Reporting by Andrea Shalal Editing done by Shri Navaratnam

(source: Reuters)